[alanbikehouston]

There are lots of articles about WHO is most likely to win the 2007 Tour de France (assuming enough riders are off-suspension, on-bond, or out-of-jail to actually hold the 2007 Tour de France).

One of those articles picked "Rider X" to win the 2007 Tour de France. And, the article said "Rider X" has never failed a drug test, has never been linked to the use of drugs by investigators, or even by credible gossip. And "Rider X" has never been on any team at a period of time when a member of that team failed a drug test or was proven to be using drugs. "Rider X" has never had a team doctor or a coach who has ever been the team doctor or coach of a cyclist proven to use drugs.

So, how many folks can name "Rider X"?

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[ChiefCatchacold]

a. Kash
b. Levi?
c. :crash:

[alanbikehouston]

Let's see. We are looking for a guy who is a "favorite" to win the 2007 Tour de France. And, he is totally clean of any suspicion of the illegal use of drugs. And, none of the hundreds of Forum members who follow the Tour de France can think of a single rider might qualify as both "a favorite" and "drug free".

The fact that a "clean" rider seems to beyond comprehension may explain the astounding lack of public interest in the 2007 Tour.

[ChiefCatchacold]

You didn't ask forum members to pick a "favorite" that "might qualify as drug free."

Cadel Evans would seem to have a pretty clean reputation, but, by your specific criteria, being on team Saeco in 2001 disqualifies him from being considered "drug free?"

One could have also considered Klöden, Leipheimer, Menchov, Sastre, and Kashechkin. Being that they are grand tour podium finishers that have not been involved in a doping offense (or suspected in OP, or associated with particular coaches/doctors.)

I think I agree with your conclusion of the public perception of the doping problem, but seems like you took quite the leap to get there based on your question.

[Banzai]

The fact that a "clean" rider seems to beyond comprehension may explain the astounding lack of public interest in the 2007 Tour.

+1.

I'm only interested for the bike p0rn this year. Just waiting to see what new toys have rolled out... after that a certain amount of apathy sets in.

[alanbikehouston]

Wasn't Kloden on the same team as Ullrich? Same doctors, same coaches? I'd have to say that given Ullrich's current reputation concerning drug use, any members of his team are under a bit of a cloud.

Playboy magazine once did a chart of all of Warren Beatty's former girlfriends. And, then the chart drew lines to every former boyfriend of everyone of Warren's former girlfriends. The point of the chart, (other than making Warren look like "Superman", was that if Warren had suffered from a "cold", every other guy in Hollywood was likely to have caught the same "cold".

If you draw the lines from each of the guys who have been in the Tour over the past decade who have been caught using drugs to their coaches, managers, and doctors, and then draw line from those coaches, managers and doctors to each of the "favorites" for the 2007 Tour de France, I'm not sure if even ONE rider comes away "clean".

[ChiefCatchacold]

Wasn't Kloden on the same team as Ullrich?
Yes, I didn't include him, Sastre, or Menchov in my original list because of the team links.

Same doctors, same coaches?
I don't know, but he is not suspected in OP as Ullrich is.


Again, I'm not disagreeing with your point. I just think the team link is not strong enough on it's own (i.e. Levi & Basso this year,) but it is also not necessary in a lot of cases to match your original criteria.

Another way to put it, even if you take the team link out of the equation, Kloden is the only Tour de France podium in the last 12 years that fits the criteria. (link (http://www.team-csc.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&lang=uk)) :eek:

[harlond]

The fact that a "clean" rider seems to beyond comprehension may explain the astounding lack of public interest in the 2007 Tour.That's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that people are tired of overzealous doping jihad.

[HigherGround]

Another way to put it, even if you take the team link out of the equation, Kloden is the only Tour de France podium in the last 12 years that fits the criteria. (link (http://www.team-csc.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&lang=uk)) :eek:

That was an amazing link! Thanks for posting it! :beer:

[alanbikehouston]

Another way to put it, even if you take the team link out of the equation, Kloden is the only Tour de France podium in the last 12 years that fits the criteria. (link (http://www.team-csc.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5013&lang=uk)) :eek:

Thanks for the link. Based on the research in your link, it would seem there may be THREE top contenders for winning the 2007 Tour de France that have no proven links to drug use, or to coaches, doctors, and teams involved in drug use:

- Kloden

- Menchov

- Sastre


Of course, the constant barrage of news and gossip about drug use will cause folks to wonder: have Kloden, Menchov, and Sastre just found "smarter" doctors than the guys who have gotten caught?

[Helmet Head]

Thanks for the link. Based on the research in your link, it would seem there may be THREE top contenders for winning the 2007 Tour de France that have no proven links to drug use, or to coaches, doctors, and teams involved in drug use:

- Kloden

- Menchov

- Sastre


Of course, the constant barrage of news and gossip about drug use will cause folks to wonder: have Kloden, Menchov, and Sastre just found "smarter" doctors than the guys who have gotten caught?
Or were they just luckier?

I assume all the figuring of dosages to be just right to help the cyclist but not enough to show up on a test is not exactly easy to get right, and, so, it's a matter of luck whether things happen to go awry on the same day that one is tested.

Keep in mind that even at the Tour only the GC leader, stage winner, and one random guy is tested each day (if I remember correctly), and those tests are not the more expensive comprehensive ones, which are only used if one fails the initial tests. So the game is to get the dosage right so as to be able to pass the cheaper basic screening tests.

Given the relatively low likelihood of being tested in the first place, coupled with the probable inherent difficulty in getting the dosages just right to stay under the radar, it seems very likely that whether a given cyclist is able to avoid being caught is more a matter of luck than having "smarter" doctors.

Also remember that there was often no evidence linking most of the cyclists implicated in OP to doping prior to OP. The only reason these guys got busted is because of all the records and other evidence (blood) at the doctor's office. It's only reasonable to assume that there are many other cyclists equally able to appear clean who just happen to be using a different FdEoRcRtAoRrI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Ferrari).

[USAZorro]

Thanks for the link. Based on the research in your link, it would seem there may be THREE top contenders for winning the 2007 Tour de France that have no proven links to drug use, or to coaches, doctors, and teams involved in drug use:

- Kloden

- Menchov

- Sastre


Of course, the constant barrage of news and gossip about drug use will cause folks to wonder: have Kloden, Menchov, and Sastre just found "smarter" doctors than the guys who have gotten caught?
Um - Sastre rides for Rhis does he not? Kloden was on the same team as Jan, and is once again riding for the same DS who was over Jan during "the wonder years".

I would shorten this list to Menchov, but I share much of the same general skepticism. I'm not sure if Levi fits the same criteria mentioned in the OP. That said, I don't think many people are picking either of these guys to win the Tour this year.