A Crude Awakening

[gerv]

Saw this excellent documentary on peak oil last night.

A couple of conclusions. The US will have to do one of these:

1) militarize oil supplies, aka, Iraq.
2) drastically reduce consumption. Several commentators question whether this is a possible direction, given that the required reduction would see people on bicycles rather than hybrid cars.

A couple of surprises:
1) commentators were frequently both oil industry consultants and, occasionally, advisors to the White house or prominent republicans. If those guys believe in peak oil, can it be otherwise?

2) the effort to reduce consumption would require a massive expenditure on all of these technologies: wind, solar, nuclear, probably hydrogen. Even then, our current lifestyles would also be considerably impacted.



discussion with the Swiss director
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1051

other bikeforum commentary
http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=291465&highlight=a+crude+awakening

the movie site:
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

[wahoonc]

Here is another couple of articles that peaked my interest: One on the "reforming" (http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=46675) of the military for operations in Africa (gee there is O-I-L there) And one about the shift in the middle east (http://www.energybulletin.net/31191.html) from crude oil to refined product. We are in for some interesting times ahead...

Aaron:)

[gwd]

Saw this excellent documentary on peak oil last night.

A couple of conclusions. The US will have to do one of these:

1) militarize oil supplies, aka, Iraq.
2) drastically reduce consumption. Several commentators question whether this is a possible direction, given that the required reduction would see people on bicycles rather than hybrid cars.

A couple of surprises:
1) commentators were frequently both oil industry consultants and, occasionally, advisors to the White house or prominent republicans. If those guys believe in peak oil, can it be otherwise?

2) the effort to reduce consumption would require a massive expenditure on all of these technologies: wind, solar, nuclear, probably hydrogen. Even then, our current lifestyles would also be considerably impacted.


If peak oil occurred in 2005 what happened to all the chaos and wars for oil that the peak oil people predicted for us? It looks like we're doing the soft landing scenario: price rises, gradual lifestyle changes with the price rises forcing a switch to alternative energy. Unfortuanately the rising gas prices are converting food to fuel. They're raising the price of our food to pay for car culture. I almost wish the chaos (mild chaos) scenario would have occured to get more cars off the road. I saw this article
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/science/nature/6224846.stm
where now they want to turn fruit into "...dimethylfuran - it can store 40% more energy than ethanol, and does not evaporate as easily." So with grain and fruit going to power cars we'll subsist on beans and greens.

[Platy]

...dimethylfuran...
Uh oh, that's a cyclic ether. Any chemists here know what happens when you expose a cyclic ether to air?

Edit: I'm not sure about dimethylfuran in particular and this isn't something you can easily google for, but I'd expect it to form highly explosive ether peroxide in the presence of air. We had an explosion & fire at the university here about 30 years ago because a graduate student distilled some tetrahydrofuran after it had been exposed to air over a semester. break. It's well known that regular ethers behave in that way, what's not well known is that cyclic ethers also form explosive peroxides.

[vulpes]

If peak oil occurred in 2005 what happened to all the chaos and wars for oil that the peak oil people predicted for us? It looks like we're doing the soft landing scenario: price rises, gradual lifestyle changes with the price rises forcing a switch to alternative energy. Unfortuanately the rising gas prices are converting food to fuel. They're raising the price of our food to pay for car culture. I almost wish the chaos (mild chaos) scenario would have occured to get more cars off the road. I saw this article
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/science/nature/6224846.stm
where now they want to turn fruit into "...dimethylfuran - it can store 40% more energy than ethanol, and does not evaporate as easily." So with grain and fruit going to power cars we'll subsist on beans and greens.

Whether the peak came in 2005 or will come soon, the initial effects will be mild but at some point the $hit will hit the fan. And it ain't gonna be pretty. No energy source that is currently available or likely to be developed in the near future can hope to replace petroleum products at their current rate of consumption. The gasoline to power internal combustion engines can be replaced in part with ethanol, bio-diesel and other non-fossil hydrocarbon fuels. The engines themselves can be replaced in part with electric motors powered by alternative energy sources, like hydrogen fuel cells. Electric cars recharged from the power grid still contribute to the demand for fossil fuel consumption because they are ultimately powered by the coal that is burned to produce the electricity to charge them.

[pedex]

the effects are already happening, and they are quite serious, just not here in the US yet

Places in Africa and Asia are already dealing with it, how would you like facing a situation were electricity might never be on steadily ever again? Or how bout the lines to get fuel that have been occurring in many places where people have to wait days to get fuel? While many of these places are at the bottom of the food chain so to speak, it also means they are affected first. It will hit us later, all we have at the moment are rising prices, but when it does, we will have much much more to lose, our consumption per person is among the highest in the world.

Cantarell is dropping off at 14% per year, what do you think will happen when Mexico completely falls apart here in a couple years due to that? Get ready for a mass exodus of people and the US most certainly will violate NAFTA over it.

Many oil producing countries are already looking at husbanding their resources a bit more and saving some later, Saudi Arabia just a day or two ago let that bombshell be known. While the idiots in washington think they can make that illegal LOL !!

Also have the double whammy of exporting countries increasing their own internal consumption while their production declines ths making exports fall off even faster. Soft landing? Doubt it, even 5% per year is pretty steep, that's a halving of oil supplies each 15 years roughly.

Peak oil wont be definitively known either till its already well into it, nature of the beast.

[wahoonc]

The latest round of guestimates on excrement impacting the rotary oscillator in North America is around 24-30 months before we will really be feeling the start of the full effect. I honestly expect to see a depression and economic fallout that hasn't been seen in this country since the 30's.

Aaron:)

[Dahon.Steve]

Saw this excellent documentary on peak oil last night.

2) the effort to reduce consumption would require a massive expenditure on all of these technologies: wind, solar, nuclear, probably hydrogen. Even then, our current lifestyles would also be considerably impacted.


The conclusions were that ALL alternatives will be more costly than what we have today. Nuclear was a bridge that will give us 10 or 20 years before we exhaust that resource. Wind is not strong enough to replace the energy we are using today never mind what is going to be needed in the future. Solar requires an incredible amount of land space (about the size of California) to capture the energy of what we use today. I suspect half the nation will be one big solar panel in the next 500 years.

I look at it this way. If we can't find a replacement for oil, society will return to the way it was like in 1907. For the most part, life continued very similar to what it is today except without the motorcar. The Iron Horse moved millions of Americans across the nation in the past and will do so in the future. Microfilm from 100 years ago shows a prosperous nation in the middle of an industrial revolution with jobs in abundance.

Should we not find an inexpensive and abundant replacement for coal and natural gas, we are in huge trouble for society will return to what life was like in 1407! The Iron Horse or for that matter, the entire digital age will be lost. We will have to build fire places and start burning wood for warmth and light. Our entire communications and entertainment industry exists because we have inexpensive electricity in households across the nation. Should electricity become an expensive commodity as oil will be in the future, we will live exactly like our founding fathers did 400 years ago.

[wahoonc]

Steve,
One thing to keep in mind...in 1907 we were an economically stable nation, and we still had a growing manufacturing base. Now we owe our soul (so to speak) to various foreign nations and we no longer have a manufacturing base to work from. As energy costs rise, jobs will be lost and eventually we won't be able to make our debt payments to the various nations holding the notes. The USA used to be a super power now we are in a super mess.

Aaron:)

[maddyfish]

Whether the peak came in 2005 or will come soon, the initial effects will be mild but at some point the $hit will hit the fan. And it ain't gonna be pretty. No energy source that is currently available or likely to be developed in the near future can hope to replace petroleum products at their current rate of consumption. The gasoline to power internal combustion engines can be replaced in part with ethanol, bio-diesel and other non-fossil hydrocarbon fuels. The engines themselves can be replaced in part with electric motors powered by alternative energy sources, like hydrogen fuel cells. Electric cars recharged from the power grid still contribute to the demand for fossil fuel consumption because they are ultimately powered by the coal that is burned to produce the electricity to charge them.
Why does everybody always forget that gas powered cars can pretty easily be converted to burn hydrogen? Forget fuel cells, when your current car can burn hydrogen and release only water vapor as waste.

[pedex]

Why does everybody always forget that gas powered cars can pretty easily be converted to burn hydrogen? Forget fuel cells, when your current car can burn hydrogen and release only water vapor as waste.

net energy loss

practical viable solutions are what's needed, hydrogen is in the pipedream category on any kind of scale

[makeinu]

Solar requires an incredible amount of land space (about the size of California) to capture the energy of what we use today. I suspect half the nation will be one big solar panel in the next 500 years.

That doesn't sound so bad. We've got plenty of sunny desert here in the US. :)

[gerv]

net energy loss

practical viable solutions are what's needed, hydrogen is in the pipedream category on any kind of scale
The documentary discusses hydrogen and its problems. I have a few questions about the feasibility (net energy gain/loss) of manufacturing hydrogen. But the documentary seemed to focus on the infrastructure required to move to a new fuel source. I am amazed, but realize that when you have invested heavily in one or another technology, it is very difficult to turn on a dime. I think that's why you saw a large variety of transportation vehicles being invented in the 19th and early 20th century, but nowadays mostly all technological improvements seem more like "tweaks". Anyway... the commentators seemed to think it would take decades to move to hydrogen, even if it were feasible.

[cyclezealot]

too militarize, Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, they better bring back the draft, double the size of the Army, triple the military budget. Might be cheaper just to buy the availalbe oil and develope alternatives. How about investing in mass transit, and alternative energy; so we are not stuck in our homes, freezing.

[pedex]

whats tragic and sad here is the solutions are actually quite easy, its the sacrifices and reality that nobody seems to want to face

light rail and heavy rail transport
canals and waterways

those are the two most efficient ways of moving goods ever designed, they will make a comeback whether we like it or not, and they will do so because they cant be beat, people will fight it tooth and nail anyway

use less fuel period, as in CONSERVATION.........number one easiest way to deal with the issue, that will be the last thing tried ironically, actually it will be forced, and thats a tragedy really

some realities that will likely do us in:
our way of occupying the landscape doesnt work, and wont work in an energy scarce world
nothing we do can change that either, people better wake up and deal with the BS
there are no magic bullets or panaceas
we've had ample time to prepare and we've bent over backwards to make the situation as bad as we possibly could-----that kind of mindset better go away and pronto or this is going to be damn bad

we absolutely cannot maintain the status quo using any technology available, conservation must occur

available technology even from 30-100 years ago is still viable and will work, we will just have to use less energy per person, we wont have to go back to the stone age or anything even close to it

unfortunately it seems this country has no interest, we will pay for that, it would rather go to war it seems even though it isnt even a solution LOL

[Ekdog]

Nuclear was a bridge that will give us 10 or 20 years before we exhaust that resource.

Why is that? Which resource would be exhausted in ten to twenty years? Uranium?

James Lovelock sees nuclear power as the only green solution (http://www.ecolo.org/media/articles/articles.in.english/love-indep-24-05-04.htm).

[Roody]

Solar farms in the desert? Thsi is a continuation of the massive centralized means of production that got us into this jam.

Solar panels on rooftops? Small and local. A good partial solution.

Dig up the parking lots and garages, and a third of the highways -- install solar and wind turbines? NOW you're getting some place!

[Ekdog]

Check this out: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/05/seville_solar_s.php

[Roody]

....
available technology even from 30-100 years ago is still viable and will work, we will just have to use less energy per person, we wont have to go back to the stone age or anything even close to it



We'll dig up some of the old technology, but there's new technology that will serve us better. Human power goes much further with modern bearings, lubes, energy storage devices, etc.

One tiny example is the radios, flashlights and now even computers that you wind up for a minute, they then run for an hour or more.

[cyclezealot]

one aspect about this pending crisis, imagine how much less dramatic it need be. Renewable energy, increase gas mileage by maybe 1/3, mass transit. The energy the US wastes is a crime.

[vulpes]

Check this out: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/05/seville_solar_s.php

I visited an installation like that at Sandia National Labs in Albuquerque when I was a kid. They had a 4 inch thick steel plate with a hole melted through it by the multiple mirrors. So the technology has been around for a long time. It must have some drawbacks or I would think it would already have been widely deployed commercially. And it is still a centralized solar application. I agree with Roody that decentralization is key. Each community and/or homestead needs to generate its own power by clean renewable means that make sense for a given location; wind in windy places, hydro where running water is sufficient, solar in sunny areas, tidal along the coastlines, etc., and probably a combination of more than one for backup and redundancy.

[Ekdog]

It must have some drawbacks or I would think it would already have been widely deployed commercially.

The drawback is that it is still slightly more expensive to produce energy this way than it to burn fossil fuels, but as the price of these energy sources rises...

[vulpes]

The drawback is that it is still slightly more expensive to produce energy this way than it to burn fossil fuels, but as the price of these energy sources rises...

Once built, what accounts for the cost of operation that fails to offset the cost of fuel?

[pedex]

problem is the cost of building the new infrastructure also climbs with the cost of energy, and this is already showing it ugly head........recent plans to build a new refinery here in the US was met with about a 50% increase in projected construction costs in just the short period of one year

simple things like just basic road maintenance and construction is already hurting some cities making them make some tough decisions, thats what happens when asphalt doubles in price in about a year

New infrastructure which depends on the old methods to build it means it automatically will have to deal with the spiraling upward prices, and these prices will rise in multiples instead of fractions. This is why it is paramount that we make the intelligent decisions ahead of time. New projects this involved take massive amounts of time and capital expenditures.

As things tighten up we wont be able to afford the usual tactic of "build it and they will come" and use the "wing it" method of planning. Only sound and well managed projects that have all the underlying advantages of sound and logical efficiencies will thrive unless they are subsidized by the govt. This what we are seeing in abundance now. Knee jerk reactionary legislation subsidized by the taxpayer to do things with largely dont have a future.

[cerewa]

Nuclear was a bridge that will give us 10 or 20 years before we exhaust that resource.


let me respond with a quote.

If we go with breeder[reactor]s we have enough economically recoverable uranium to meet all our power needs for tens, probably hundreds of thousands of years.

The majority of the sources i found under "uranium supply" in a google search seemed to draw similar conclusions.

[makeinu]

Solar farms in the desert? Thsi is a continuation of the massive centralized means of production that got us into this jam.

Solar panels on rooftops? Small and local. A good partial solution.

Dig up the parking lots and garages, and a third of the highways -- install solar and wind turbines? NOW you're getting some place!

All things being equal decentralization is better, but all things aren't equal. There are very compelling reasons to go for centralized means of production.

[Thor29]

Why does everybody always forget that gas powered cars can pretty easily be converted to burn hydrogen? Forget fuel cells, when your current car can burn hydrogen and release only water vapor as waste.

Nobody is forgetting hydrogen. Let me ask you a simple question - where does hydrogen come from? The answer is that there is no hydrogen source on the planet earth. You have to use energy to split hydrogen from other compounds. While it is theoretically possible to use solar or wind power to create hydrogen from water, it is not feasible on the scale necessary to replace gasoline. If you were going to create a wind and solar infrastructure, it would make more sense to build electric cars and try to design better batteries rather than build a new infrastructure for hydrogen production, transportation, and storage.

[BIG-E]

Bicycles can save the world. Spread the word.

[mustang1]

If peak oil occurred in 2005 what happened to all the chaos and wars for oil that the peak oil people predicted for us?

I came back from Iraq a few weeks ago. Everything is nice and rosy there... no problems. And the oil is secure for a while longer.

[Roody]

Another reason for hope has to do with the the high cost of maintaining the current infrastructure. Car and truck fleets, highways, the power grid, pipelines--all are enormously expensive to maintain, replace and increase. As these systems become extinct, enormous amounts of capital will be freed up for new systems.

[Roody]

I came back from Iraq a few weeks ago. Everything is nice and rosy there... no problems. And the oil is secure for a while longer.
This is indeed good news. Were you part of a secret Cheney task force? Did you go shopping with John McCain?

[Weeks]

I"m just praying for the days of water fusion. It's coming, mates.

[acroy]

let the free market figure it out....
if gas gets seriously pricey, i bet cars shrink, commutes shrink, roads become less crowded...
tho hi price of cigarettes hasn't made anyone I know quit smoking for money reasons :rolleyes: so maybe not.

[Weeks]

Did you guys hear about the Big 4 automakers crying because there's new MPG laws being passed in Congress and it will force them to make smaller cars and lose money on their overpriced gas guzzling SUVs and pickups?

[Thor29]

I"m just praying for the days of water fusion. It's coming, mates.

So you're praying for Armageddon? Crazy. If humans ever discovered such an abundant energy source overconsumption would kill the planet so fast it'd make your head spin.

[acorn_user]

The problem with Hydrogen is that virtually all of it comes from reforming natural gas. So although the tailpipe emissions are water only, you do have CO2 at the plant. Of course, you've centralised emissions to one location, making it easier to treat them better. That's the advantage of centralisation.

Britain, at least, has good infrastructure in place for Hydrogen, since we were using it as a fuel in the 1900's (in the form of coal gas which is H2/CO). The infrastructure can be done.

The problem in the US for transport is that most towns are set up for cars. There are many places where you have to drive to be able to get out of your subdivision. This is caused by there being too few roads. If there were lots of teeny weeny roads in the US, like there are in Britain, you could get around better by bike. In England, I can almost always find an alternative route where I only have to worry about tractors and hedgehogs.

[Riv-Lantis]

If peak oil occurred in 2005 what happened to all the chaos and wars for oil that the peak oil people predicted for us? It looks like we're doing the soft landing scenario: price rises, gradual lifestyle changes with the price rises forcing a switch to alternative energy. Unfortuanately the rising gas prices are converting food to fuel. They're raising the price of our food to pay for car culture. I almost wish the chaos (mild chaos) scenario would have occured to get more cars off the road. I saw this article
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/science/nature/6224846.stm
where now they want to turn fruit into "...dimethylfuran - it can store 40% more energy than ethanol, and does not evaporate as easily." So with grain and fruit going to power cars we'll subsist on beans and greens.
Global oil production did indeed peak at around 84.5 million barrels/day. And demand continued to creep up. This caused prices to go up from around $30/barrel to well into the $60/barrel range (and above for short periods).

The net effect of that is that 3rd world nations were priced out of the oil market completley. Nations on the fringe basically stopped developing at all. This brought demand back in line with supply - for a short time. This scenario will play out again and again in the next decade or two. Demand will creep above what the world can produce at a given time, prices will rise, and the lowest nations on the oil totem pole will be prices out of the market.

Until oil prices get so high that change is forced upon even the most rich and gluttonous of nations, the U.S.

[gerv]

The problem in the US for transport is that most towns are set up for cars. There are many places where you have to drive to be able to get out of your subdivision. This is caused by there being too few roads. If there were lots of teeny weeny roads in the US, like there are in Britain, you could get around better by bike. In England, I can almost always find an alternative route where I only have to worry about tractors and hedgehogs.
I think this is why in the US the notion of being carfree is considered so "out there." When an oil/gas crunch does occur, the US is probably one of the least prepared nations. I know many sections of my town where you won't even see a pedestrian, let alone a bicycle...

[Wogsterca]

The problem in the US for transport is that most towns are set up for cars. There are many places where you have to drive to be able to get out of your subdivision. This is caused by there being too few roads. If there were lots of teeny weeny roads in the US, like there are in Britain, you could get around better by bike. In England, I can almost always find an alternative route where I only have to worry about tractors and hedgehogs.

You will find that in Britain and most of Europe, cities are built in grids, so that if we have King St as a busy arterial, we have Prince Street and Queen Street on either side, which are smaller and narrower, but are just as long. In the US, and Canada is just as bad, we have situations where you have an arterial, but the streets on either side, keep disappearing. For example, to ride to work, I start on one street, it ends just before a railway track, the arterial is the only street that crosses, so I follow the arterial for a couple of blocks, then back on the side street, but that ends just before a freeway, so back to the arterial, so you can cross the bridge.

Wouldn't be as bad if there was a trail through, but there isn't.

[mustang1]

This is indeed good news. Were you part of a secret Cheney task force? Did you go shopping with John McCain?

I was making a slightly obnoxious statement. I didn't go to Iraq. I was making the point (perhaps weakly, or too subtly) that there are problems in Iraq due to the war but now the oil supply has been secured for a 'little while longer'.

[Riv-Lantis]

Here's a great video (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4774233415102971409&q=crude+awakening&total=33&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=2) of a presentation given on peak oil.

The presenter has studied energy and the market reaction to peak oil for decades, and here he gives his educated opions on what is ACTUALLY going to happen, as opposed to some of the appocolyptic (sp) scenarios presented for sensationalism.

[swwhite]

In the US, and Canada is just as bad, we have situations where you have an arterial, but the streets on either side, keep disappearing.

Exactly the situation in my area of Minneapolis. A few well-placed trails and bridges would make biking a lot easier (and might possibly encourage more people to do it).

[gwd]

Riots over gasoline? Maybe the predicted peak oil chaos is beginning.

"...people think cheap fuel is their birthright and public transport is very limited,.."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6243644.stm

It isn't just Americans who are too car dependent.

[pedex]

^^^ what's really humorous about that is the Bush admin and Bush himself has publicly stated many times that he does not understand why Iran would want nuclear power with all the oil they have !!! about 5 seconds spent using google bears out how wrong he is LOL

[pedex]

Exactly the situation in my area of Minneapolis. A few well-placed trails and bridges would make biking a lot easier (and might possibly encourage more people to do it).

in the situation of resource scarcity do not count on helpful projects to achieve that, this is one of those situations where one must do it themselves

[JeffS]

Did you guys hear about the Big 4 automakers crying because there's new MPG laws being passed in Congress and it will force them to make smaller cars and lose money on their overpriced gas guzzling SUVs and pickups?

Please... those are fake tears they're crying over that watered-down bill. Come 2020 we will still have the lowest standards on the planet, and no provision for them to increase automatically.

That the republicans are ignoring truly viable options (by blocking discussion of renewables) while selling out to the corn lobbyists shows just how far up their asses their heads are.

[JeffS]

Here's a great video (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4774233415102971409&q=crude+awakening&total=33&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=2) of a presentation given on peak oil.

The presenter has studied energy and the market reaction to peak oil for decades, and here he gives his educated opions on what is ACTUALLY going to happen, as opposed to some of the appocolyptic (sp) scenarios presented for sensationalism.


Actually, he talks very little about what will ACTUALLY happen. It's a fifty minute presentation and only three of those are a summary with a few vague predictions. "It will be an emergency", and "painful adjustment" are still sugar-coated comments as he clearly didn't want to spend too much time on this aspect.

[Dahon.Steve]

Riots over gasoline? Maybe the predicted peak oil chaos is beginning.

"...people think cheap fuel is their birthright and public transport is very limited,.."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6243644.stm

It isn't just Americans who are too car dependent.

Agreed.

Iran's situation is crazy since they actually have to IMPORT oil since they can't refine their own!!! Make no doubt it, Iran wants the bomb because we're probably going to attack them sooner or later.