Training & Nutrition - Setting a reasonable expectation

What kind of improvement (speed wise) can I expect in about a year? Currently I ride 3 or 4 times a week, 15-30 miles per ride, and averaging 17-18 mph per ride. I live in Bay Area, so it's pretty hilly. My comfortable pace on the flat is between 18-22 mph, depending on the wind.

Now, is it reasonable to expect that if I continue this trend I will be able to average 20-22 mph and increase my comfortable pace at around 25 mph, in about a year?

No idea?

Its based on genetics and training regime. It also depends on terrain, so I can't offer you a good opinion about your speed or how much you will improve. I could guess but it would be a pure guess nothing more nothing less.

The best way to find out how fast you are, and how fast other people are is to ride with other people. Find a club and join a group ride. You'll quickly find out where you stand.

Also, racing is a great way to measure yourself. If you don't have the nerve at first, just go and watch.

Originally posted by firebolt
What kind of improvement (speed wise) can I expect in about a year? Currently I ride 3 or 4 times a week, 15-30 miles per ride, and averaging 17-18 mph per ride. I live in Bay Area, so it's pretty hilly. My comfortable pace on the flat is between 18-22 mph, depending on the wind.

Now, is it reasonable to expect that if I continue this trend I will be able to average 20-22 mph and increase my comfortable pace at around 25 mph, in about a year?

Well, that depends.

You see the fastest improvements when you go from sedantary to atheletic. As your physical conditioning improves, each added increment of performance is harder to get to and takes longer. Eventually, you may reach a level where getting anymore improvement just isn't worth the effort.

Now from your post you talk about averaging 17-18 mph per ride. I thought San Francisco (Bay Area?) was hilly. So I doubt very much that you are averaging that speed. You might cruise that speed on flat terrain but that is far different from averaging that speed.

You would have to be a very strong cyclist to average 25 mph for any distance over flat terrain. It can be done but it isn't easy. Doing a 25 mph time trial used to be considered pretty good among competitive cyclists, I dunno if that is still true. You definitely are not going to go this whilst chatting. It is not exactly an easy cruising speed unless you are in a peloton.

Another thing will kick in. Air resistance increases exponentially with increasing speed. This puts a functional upper limit on the speed a cyclist can attain without drafting. I think the hour record for a time trial is about 34 mph and getting over 40 mph on a sprint on flat terrain takes some doing.

Thing is that local conditions vary so much that comparing speeds is almost meaningless. I had an 11 mile commute that I did both ways years ago. I think my lowest avg speed was 7 mph into a big headwind (I upshifted on hills because they blocked the wind). And my highest avg speed was 27 mph with a big tail wind. So even on the same course, just changes in the wind can have an enormous effect.

A 25mph average on a solo ride is an extraordinarily optimistic goal. I've been riding 17 or 18 years, and, well, it would have to be a pretty short ride for me to have a 25 mph average. Maelstrom pretty much nailed it. Train seriously for a year and find out!

PS. Training hard doesn't mean running out and hammering everytime you get on the bike. Build your base mileage, add intervals for intensity, and most important of all, recover!

Originally posted by Pat
Well, that depends.

You see the fastest improvements when you go from sedantary to atheletic. As your physical conditioning improves, each added increment of performance is harder to get to and takes longer. Eventually, you may reach a level where getting anymore improvement just isn't worth the effort.

Now from your post you talk about averaging 17-18 mph per ride. I thought San Francisco (Bay Area?) was hilly. So I doubt very much that you are averaging that speed. You might cruise that speed on flat terrain but that is far different from averaging that speed.

You would have to be a very strong cyclist to average 25 mph for any distance over flat terrain. It can be done but it isn't easy. Doing a 25 mph time trial used to be considered pretty good among competitive cyclists, I dunno if that is still true. You definitely are not going to go this whilst chatting. It is not exactly an easy cruising speed unless you are in a peloton.

Another thing will kick in. Air resistance increases exponentially with increasing speed. This puts a functional upper limit on the speed a cyclist can attain without drafting. I think the hour record for a time trial is about 34 mph and getting over 40 mph on a sprint on flat terrain takes some doing.

Thing is that local conditions vary so much that comparing speeds is almost meaningless. I had an 11 mile commute that I did both ways years ago. I think my lowest avg speed was 7 mph into a big headwind (I upshifted on hills because they blocked the wind). And my highest avg speed was 27 mph with a big tail wind. So even on the same course, just changes in the wind can have an enormous effect.

Yeah, the innitial improvement was dramatic (I started cycling just a little more than a year ago) and the weight lost was huge, but now I hit a ceiling.

It's pretty hilly here, but most of my routes only have rolling hills, with one or two steep but short sections (BTW, my commute is totally flat). I never ride steep hills more than half a mile long on my road bike.

I just check my riding logs again, and after each ride I do average around 17-18 mph (18.3 the highest, 16.5 the lowest).

I guess I should consider joinning a group ride ... but I love the freedom of riding solo ... oh well. ;)

Firebolt,

If you're serious about increasing your avg. speed, then joining a bike club would probably be a good idea. You can go with either a social/touring club like ACTC (Almaden Cycle Touring Club) and WW (Western Wheelers) or you can join a racing club like LGBRC (Los Gatos Bicycle Racing Club), SJBC (San Jose Bike Club), MVV (Monta Vista Velo), or AV (Alto Velo).

It's not really necessary to do the entire ride with the group either. Lot's of folks join the ride for the beginning and then go their own way later on in the ride. (just make sure someone in the group knows you're dropping out, so nobody gets worried and starts trying to look for you.) A bike club can be a nice support group, a way to meet other riders, and a way to improve your bike riding either through honing your handling skills or improving your fitness.

SteveE

At one point, I was thinking of joining ACTC but never did. I don't know, I just don't like the idea of meeting at a predetermined location and time just to ride a bike. I like to ride whenever and to wherever I want....

But again, the benefit of riding in a group may outweight all that. And also I like the idea that I can separate from the group anytime I want. I think I'll do it.

Thanks SteveE