Professional Cycling For the Fans - Stage 9: Val-d’Isère - Briançon

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Looks like it will be another painful day in the saddle for the peloton! Any predictions on what will happen during the stage?

Any predictions on what will happen during the stage?


Prediction?

Pain.

If Rasmussen gets away again he might end up winning the whole tour.

37km descending to the finish... How fast/technical is it? Is the peloton going to have a big enough advantage to reel in any small breaks or individual riders on the way down to the finish?

Not going to happen.


Why not?

Why not? Unless he cracks the overall GC contenders on the climbs, it is rather doubtful they are going to let him go.

How fast/technical is it?

The bit down from Galibier to Lautaret (8km or so) is quite technical. The last 20 or 30 km is not too steep and on a good sized road, so pretty fast.

how much do you know about bike racing?

if you think he's going to be allowed to ride away a 2nd time from the peloton, obviously not much.

I agree, however, I think that you overestimate the intelligence of the peloton. I think they could let him walk away with it while they play circle jerk.

Michael

I agree, however, I think that you overestimate the intelligence of the peloton. I think they could let him walk away with it while they play circle jerk. I am pretty sure the peloton would want to involve him in the circle jerk festivities! :p

This stage is better suited for rasmussen to grab 5 minutes at the top than the last. Rest day should help. He just needs to hang until the final climb. Most of the field will go up @ 10kmh-ish

I will have to say no to that. The long downhill finish should keep the GC's together pretty much.

I will be interested to see how he defends yellow, and whether he still goes for KOM points.

Richard


This stage is better suited for rasmussen to grab 5 minutes at the top than the last. Rest day should help. He just needs to hang until the final climb. Most of the field will go up @ 10kmh-ish

This stage is better suited for rasmussen to grab 5 minutes at the top than the last. Rest day should help. He just needs to hang until the final climb. Most of the field will go up @ 10kmh-ish

With over 35k from the top of the climb that's not going to happen. Forget the intelligence of the peloton, Rasmussen's intelligence will tell him to conserve energy and wait for stage 14.

nasty stage...erk.

With over 35k from the top of the climb that's not going to happen. Forget the intelligence of the peloton, Rasmussen's intelligence will tell him to conserve energy and wait for stage 14.

+5 (didn't notice the length of downhill)

If there is a breakaway ahead, he could reach them and descend with them, and they'd probably cooperate knowing Ras can't sprint at the end.

Wait a second.

I've been watching bits and pieces of a bunch of different broadcasts and re-broadcasts all week.

But why am I listening to Phil and Paul at 10:30 at night? I swear I was watching Bob and Al laugh at each other at 8:30. Al was laughing so hard he couldn't breathe.

Perhaps that's my answer.

I predict Salvodelli will have a good day.

I predict Salvodelli will have a good day.
There's no such rider in the tour. :p

I think the hills are too steep for Savoldelli to remain with the leaders on the final climb. I'm thinking a very good climber who can flat-out sprint will take the stage. Unless Rasmussen builds up an enormous advantage, I'd expect Valverde to take this one.

Sylvain Chavanel goes for a long one, to initially get KOM points.

Stage for Vino, Kloedn, Valverde, Valjavec, Schleck, Kasheckin, Contador and Rasmusen.
DId you guys see Borat yesterday ? :) Video (http://www.sportvid.net/borat-on-tour-de-france/) Great support for Astana

Rasmussen is a badass. He dont play.

By the way, what does the HC climb stand for? "helluva climb" ?

hehehe.

I rode yesterday and I pulled a few hills here and tried to imagine it but theres no way. I dont see how they do it.

By the way, what does the HC climb stand for? "helluva climb" ?

It means "hors catégorie" which loosly translates to beyond categorization, meaning off the charts. For many though an HC grade probably stands for "Holy Crap!"

What will that first HC climb do to the peloton? Will a lot of those riders be able to catch back up before the cat 1 climb later in the stage?

most likely (unless there's some mad attack at the start, ala pantani in 2000, or landis last year) which there won't be, seeing as the Pyrenees have yet to come.
Desperation in both cases. Still too early for desperate measures in this Tour, yet it may come to that for Vino.

Many of the teams will try to send guns up ahead to be there to assist at the top of the final climb and the downhill.

But the steeper the climb, the bigger the advantage the pure climbers have. It's not a matter of whether the peloton allows Rasmussen to ride away - the fact is that he can.

Between Telegraphe and Galibier, there are about 30 km of steep and steeper climbing (with maybe 6k of descent in between), followed by the final 37 km of descent. A pure climber should be able to gain way more time on this climb than he will lose on the descent, especially if he's a decent descender.

A group of spanish guys sneaking out on the first climb could hold it to the end. A rabobank guy in a first climb breakaway could end up helping rasmussen a lot

too much of a down hill for rasmusen to gain a lot of time

In general can a peleton descend faster than a lone rider? It seems relevant considering the long decent here.

A pure climber should be able to gain way more time on this climb than he will lose on the descent, especially if he's a decent descender.

Rasmussens decents have been called into question....although he looked better in stage 8.

Is Skeletor a poor descender? I've heard his descents called into question as well, and certainly gravity is not his friend, but I also know that he has a MTB background, and a lot of times, those types are really good at picking lines and handling a bike.

I really think this is the day to get rid of Vino, and Kloden to if he tries to nurse Vino through the stage. Maybe chicken will remember stage 10 in 2005 where a lot of GC riders were dropped rather quickly after the rest day. If someone is in difficulty on the first climb I suspect they will not finish the stage with the leaders.

We are probably in store for a stage similar to 7 however.

Richard

But the steeper the climb, the bigger the advantage the pure climbers have. It's not a matter of whether the peloton allows Rasmussen to ride away - the fact is that he can.My memory could be faulty, but I don't recall any stage of the TdF in which Rasmussen has gained any significant amount of time on the main contenders except through a long breakaway. This group of contenders doesn't measure up to those of years past--after all, it's missing Ullrich, Basso, Landis, etc.--so maybe Rasmussen has an edge that will allow him to get away. Maybe.

In general can a peleton descend faster than a lone rider? It seems relevant considering the long decent here.
There's no peleton to speak of on a fast or tricky descent. You may have small groups of two or three working together on the more controlled parts of the downhill but that's it. Being good at descents is about aerodynamics, reading the curves to take the straightest route possible, braking only when you have to and just having nerves of steel. I've gone down hill max 34mph and get scared taking a gradual curve at that speed. They're going a lot faster around some nasty curves!

There's no peleton to speak of on a fast or tricky descent. You may have small groups of two or three working together on the more controlled parts of the downhill but that's it. Being good at descents is about aerodynamics, reading the curves to take the straightest route possible, braking only when you have to and just having nerves of steel. I've gone down hill max 34mph and get scared taking a gradual curve at that speed. They're going a lot faster around some nasty curves!

Thank you...thats what i kinda figured.

Which is why I was wondering why so many people thought the descent would even the race up with the GC contenders.


Is Skeletor a poor descender? I've heard his descents called into question as well, and certainly gravity is not his friend, but I also know that he has a MTB background, and a lot of times, those types are really good at picking lines and handling a bike.

Yes even with his MTB background he is a poor descender. Hes never really impressed me with his bike skills. Its just his ability to climb like an angel.

...Which is why I was wondering why so many people thought the descent would even the race up with the GC contenders...

It's partly the descents (where someone like Savoldelli could pull back the better part of a minute on some riders over 10k of a technical route), but probably more so the areas where a group could work together, or where someone with better time-trialing ability could use those advantages to negate gains made on the climb. Given the likely much smaller size of the chase groups, and the fatigue level, the gains might not be quite as dramatic as when the sprinters' teams chase down an all-day break at the close of a stage, but the same principles apply.

If Rasmussen were to make it over the final climb tomorrow 2:00 minutes ahead of (just for illustrative purposes) Valverde, Evans, Mayo, Contador, Sastre and Kloden, I very seriously doubt Chicken would be able to win the stage.

For about the last 72k of the stage, 30k is up, and 42 is down.

Let's say Rasmussen is 2km faster on the up (20k/h vs 18k/h avg), and 2km slower on the down (60k/h vs 62 k/h).

30k @ 20k/hour = 1.5 hours
30k @ 18k/hour = 1.66 hours. Ras gains .16 hours, or 9.6 minutes

42k@ 60 k/hour = 0.7 hours for Ras
42k@ 62 k/hour = 0.677 hours for others. Ras loses .0223 hours or 1.3 minutes, a net gain of 9.6 - 1.3 = 8.3 minutes.

This is not meant to be a prediction. Just illustrating why being faster on the up gains you much more than being slower on the down, assuming you are faster and slower by the same absolute speed difference.

Of course, if Ras is, say, only 1 km/hour faster on the up, and 5km/hour slower on the down, his net gain is much less. Consider...

30k @ 20k/hour = 1.5 hours
30k @ 19k/hour = 1.578 hours. Ras gains .078 hours, or 4.7 minutes

42k@ 60 k/hour = 0.7 hours for Ras
42k@ 65 k/hour = 0.677 hours for others. Ras loses .054 hours or 3.2 minutes, a net gain of 4.7 - 3.2 = 1.5 minutes.

If Ras descended at an average of 60k/hour for 42k (0.7 hours - 42 minutes) and lost 1 minute every 10k to Savoldelli, then Savoldelli would do the 42 k in 0.7 hours - 0.0666 hours (4 minutes) = .6334 hours (38 minutes). 42k in 38 minutes is 66.3 k/hour.

Will Savoldelli descend at an avg speed of 6 k/hour faster than Ras? They will have to, if Ras ascends at 1k/hour or more faster than them.

All that is fine, but it doesn't quite work that way. Only suffering riders will lose time tomorrow.

Richard


For about the last 72k of the stage, 30k is up, and 42 is down.

Let's say Rasmussen is 2km faster on the up (20k/h vs 18k/h avg), and 2km slower on the down (60k/h vs 62 k/h).

30k @ 20k/hour = 1.5 hours
30k @ 18k/hour = 1.66 hours. Ras gains .16 hours, or 9.6 minutes

42k@ 60 k/hour = 0.7 hours for Ras
42k@ 62 k/hour = 0.677 hours for others. Ras loses .0223 hours or 1.3 minutes, a net gain of 9.6 - 1.3 = 8.3 minutes.

This is not meant to be a prediction. Just illustrating why being faster on the up gains you much more than being slower on the down, assuming you are faster and slower by the same absolute speed difference.

Of course, if Ras is, say, only 1 km/hour faster on the up, and 5km/hour slower on the down, his net gain is much less. Consider...

30k @ 20k/hour = 1.5 hours
30k @ 19k/hour = 1.578 hours. Ras gains .078 hours, or 4.7 minutes

42k@ 60 k/hour = 0.7 hours for Ras
42k@ 65 k/hour = 0.677 hours for others. Ras loses .054 hours or 3.2 minutes, a net gain of 4.7 - 3.2 = 1.5 minutes.

Is Skeletor a poor descender? I've heard his descents called into question as well, and certainly gravity is not his friend, but I also know that he has a MTB background, and a lot of times, those types are really good at picking lines and handling a bike.

In 2006,Gravity is not his friend, and nerves seemed poor on the 2006 stage I saw him run. If its not difficult descent (and it doesn't look to be steep) he should be ok... but he'd lose a lot of time if he was alone (its not steep)

Your math is good, but if ras were to break away on this stage, it would be to gain on peloton, and he'd only be able to do that with a pack to help on the fairly long but gentle downhill finish.


If Ras descended at an average of 60k/hour for 42k (0.7 hours - 42 minutes) and lost 1 minute every 10k to Savoldelli, then Savoldelli would do the 42 k in 0.7 hours - 0.0666 hours (4 minutes) = .6334 hours (38 minutes). 42k in 38 minutes is 66.3 k/hour.

Will Savoldelli descend at an avg speed of 6 k/hour faster than Ras? They will have to, if Ras ascends at 1k/hour or more faster than them.

Hmm, Vino won this stage (well, a similar one) in 2005.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/?id=results/tour0511#res.

Ras, Levi, Popo, Kloden, along with Lance and company, came in over a minute later.

The 2005 profile:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005//tour05/graphics/profile11.gif

Lots of descents, and didn't they say Rasmussen IS NOT a good descent rider? Maybe that could come into play?

expert prediction from your favorite philly bike messenger.... the chicken sets new "uphill land speed bicycle climbing record" on the final climb but fails to gain time due to the amazing amount of descending?? which stage is schleck gonna win? i like that guy, and his brother!

Prediction?

Pain.

+50 bonus points for quoting Mr. T.

Why does everyone think Rasmussen can ride everyone of the GC off of the road? Keep in mind that even Vino took time from Ras on the final climb, and Moreau's group took quite a bit without even trying to.

Richard

[QUOTE=Helmet Head]But the steeper the climb, the bigger the advantage the pure climbers have. It's not a matter of whether the peloton allows Rasmussen to ride away - the fact is that he can./QUOTE]My memory could be faulty, but I don't recall any stage of the TdF in which Rasmussen has gained any significant amount of time on the main contenders except through a long breakaway. This group of contenders doesn't measure up to those of years past--after all, it's missing Ullrich, Basso, Landis, etc.--so maybe Rasmussen has an edge that will allow him to get away. Maybe.

Maybe if there is absolutely no organized chase again. Rasmusin [sic] rode off the front uncontested and only poor Moreau tried to organize an effective chase. He will be marked on the first HC climb and that will be it for him. If he hasn't already made an alliance with another team (or two!) to secure the polk-dot jersey he's a moron.

today the chicken was quoted to say "This yellow jersey feels like doping to me," he said. "It motivates me more than anything. I will fight to keep it."

how are you going to beat such a great climber, ON DOPE? I think the yellow jersey will also give him a +5 to his downhill skills! +5 is a lot fyi..

So its a +5 Yellow Jersey? That sure is better than my +1 Mace...

Even a cursed -2 mace of feebleness can do a lot of damage to a +5 yellow jersey.

If Vino attacks on this stage, do you think it'll catch his rivals flat footed? can you say sneak attack damage?