Professional Cycling For the Fans - Stage 16 : Orthez - Gourette - Col d’Aubisque

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Damn it botto, every time my urge to move to Europe starts to subside, you go and post pictures like those again! :mad: ;)

That actually has been a recurring interest of mine...

Great picture.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v223/botto/France/aub_04.jpg

taken in May, riding up the Aubisque (http://myshavedlegs.blogspot.com/2007/05/in-search-of-wim-van-est.html).


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v223/botto/France/aub_02.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v223/botto/aub07.jpg


Imagine how Rassmussen and De La Fuente will salivate upon seeing that huge jersey.:D

After an HC, 2 cat 1's and a cat3, why is there an intermediate sprint on the flats only 18k from the finish? There aren't going to be any green jersey contenders left for that intermediate sprint.

After an HC, 2 cat 1's and a cat3, why is there an intermediate sprint on the flats only 18k from the finish? There aren't going to be any green jersey contenders left for that intermediate sprint. Perhaps to just hand out a couple of prizes?

and give 6 seconds to a gc contender making an earlier break. The best climber would normally wait till the last climb before dropping other contenders.

Why is stage 15 the Queen stage and not this stage. This seems equally as difficult as 15.

What's a queen stage? I agree this one might be harder than 15.

Why is stage 15 the Queen stage and not this stage. This seems equally as difficult as 15.

This stage comes after a rest day. Stage 15 comes on the heels of a tough stage 14, and with the rest day following you can extend yourself more in stage 15 than 16. There are also some extra cat 2 climbs in stage 15. 15 doesn't edge this by much.

The scene of Contador's 2nd stage win in this year's Tour. :) Hopefully by a larger margin than today's.

Levi has been riding the whole Tour with this stage in mind.
All the pretenders will crack and Levi will claw his way to the finish first and take yellow.

Edit: 07-23-07, 12:23 PM PT: I didn't mean for this to be an actual serious prediction. Just speculating for fun, of course.

Levi has been riding the whole Tour with this stage in mind.
All the pretenders will crack and Levi will claw his way to the finish first and take yellow.
We've been saying this all tour .. Levi will this, will that .. time is literally running out (or away, in this case).

So we're down to two stages - 16, then ~3 rest days, and the last TT. If I'm Contador/Evans/Kloden/Whoever, I'm thinking I need to get within 2 minutes after this stage to have a pretty good shot at winning, and 4 minutes at a minimum.

So who's going to put ~2 minutes into Rasmussen on a Mountain stage?

^^^^Please stop saying that. It sounds too logical and I'm not ready to accept the chicken as Tour champion.

Look at him!!!

Those two flat stages will not be rest days unless the race for yellow is over.

Richard


So we're down to two stages - 16, then ~3 rest days, and the last TT. If I'm Contador/Evans/Kloden/Whoever, I'm thinking I need to get within 2 minutes after this stage to have a pretty good shot at winning, and 4 minutes at a minimum.

So who's going to put ~2 minutes into Rasmussen on a Mountain stage?

Those two flat stages will not be rest days unless the race for yellow is over.


Indeed, to the contrary, Disco will be throwing attack after attack. They won't even care if one of the attacks stick, they'll just be wearing down Ras. And I'm not sure Rabo has the juice to protect Ras as much as he will need. But I hope so. :)

My Prediction:

Team Disco go straight to the front and destroys the field on the first climb. Sets up Contador for an attack on the last climb.

Contador gains 1:15 on Ras...sets up a TT showdown which Contador wins.

Indeed. Poor choice of words on my part.

Richard


they're not flat.

My Prediction:

Team Disco go straight to the front and destroys the field on the first climb. Sets up Contador for an attack on the last climb.

Contador gains 1:15 on Ras...sets up a TT showdown which Contador wins.
Another possibility is that Astana does this, and launches Vino on an epic solo ride in which he gains 30 minutes and takes yellow.

they're not flat.

Do you think someone's going to get time in on Rasmussen on those stages?

Another possibility is that Astana does this, and launches Vino on an epic solo ride in which he gains 30 minutes and takes yellow.

That mad theory dies with Popovych crashing the party.

yep, but not GC threats.

I'll buy that.

What about Soler....Does anyone think he goes bombing out and trys to win the first 3 or 4 climbs for the KOM?

Soler will win Polka dot jersey, and yes a good chance he goes for early ones rather than hope to fight off the wee ones --the Chicken-Condor duo -- at the end.

Anyone know the weather forecast?

Soler will win Polka dot jersey, and yes a good chance he goes for early ones rather than hope to fight off the wee ones --the Chicken-Condor duo -- at the end.

I just noticed hes only 15:00 back of Ras...so they wont let him get to far off the leash. But a solid 6 minutes ahead should earn him maximum points early on.

Indeed, to the contrary, Disco will be throwing attack after attack. They won't even care if one of the attacks stick, they'll just be wearing down Ras. And I'm not sure Rabo has the juice to protect Ras as much as he will need. But I hope so. :)

I agree - I don't feel Rabobank is a really strong team, but there would have to be a really strong series of attacks before Rasmussen gets killed in time on a flat stage.

So bottom line (in my mind) is that it's three rest days for Rasmussen.

I agree - I don't feel Rabobank is a really strong team, but there would have to be a really strong series of attacks before Rasmussen gets killed in time on a flat stage.


Well, I think we agree. But just to clarify, I was suggesting that they would be trying to wear Ras down so that he's drained for the last TT, not in hopes of gaining time on 17 and 18.

Thanks for the photos, botto.

me climbing the Aubisque in the 2005 Etape:

http://i72.photobucket.com/albums/i165/bobstewart/aubisque.jpg

Levi has been riding the whole Tour with this stage in mind.
All the pretenders will crack and Levi will claw his way to the finish first and take yellow.

Edit: 07-23-07, 12:23 PM PT: I didn't mean for this to be an actual serious prediction. Just speculating for fun, of course.

Levi is nothing more than a glorified domestique. He will be lucky if he can hang with his own teammate and the chicken. I can't wait to see Levi flop. He is a huge dissapointment.

What about Soler....Does anyone think he goes bombing out and trys to win the first 3 or 4 climbs for the KOM?

I think he's crazy enough to do it. He sure is is fun to watch...

We've been saying this all tour .. Levi will this, will that .. time is literally running out (or away, in this case).

How about this:

Levi will LOSE.


I think this is one "will" which "will" actually come true.

http://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/France/Gourette_snow.html

Thanks. I wonder what % chance of rain that is. Pau shows no rain in forecast. I wonder because if it rains much, the race will blow apart. 1998 all over again. Port de Larrau looks like a monster.

Being after a rest day, you never know what can happen. And it's such a long and difficult stage. Hopefully Disco and other teams will try to keep pace high and blow up the Tour. Considering the overall situation, there must be some motive to force the race early on. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rasmussen lose a couple minutes to Contador, or vise versa.

The first 7km of the Aubisque is easy (4-7%), the last 7km is hard (7.5-10%).

Soler will win Polka dot jersey, and yes a good chance he goes for early ones rather than hope to fight off the wee ones --the Chicken-Condor duo -- at the end.

As much as I would like Soler to win the Polka Dot jersey, he cracked yesterday. Unless that he deliberately held back at that point since KOM points were not going to be lost to Rasmussan, I think Soler is unfortunately spent.


My hope: Soler yesterday held back on purpose, since Rasmussan was not going for KOM points, and had he taken the lead today, Rassmussan would be looking at the Jersey in Stage 16. Whoever leads the KOM competition after tomorrow will get the Jersey for good. I hope Soler has it in him to attack.

If Discovery is convinced Contador is better than Rasmussen in the mountains they need to prove it. They can take charge of the pace with the entire team. They have enough good riders to reduce the field to 10 riders or so well before the final climb. They can then let Contador do his damage. Levi would likely still be in the final group. Unfortunately I will be out Wednesday, and won't get to see the stage until later at night. It should be good. There is nothing to hold back at this point, so the damage will be severe.

Richard

Thanks. I wonder what % chance of rain that is. Pau shows no rain in forecast.
As I learned last week, the weather in Pau can be virtually irrelevant to the weather on the Col d'Aubisque. It was in the 80s in the valleys when I rode it last week and the top was in the 50s and wet as we rode through the clouds. Hell, it dropped close to 10 degrees between Gourette and the top, which is only 4km.


The first 7km of the Aubisque is easy (4-7%), the last 7km is hard (7.5-10%). After the previous 3 climbs, none of it will be easy. That said, I didn't find the climb itself that difficult, just freakin' long. There are a couple patches that went up to 14 - 15%, but not too much. It was a relatively gradual incline most of the way. But coming on the heels of other climbs made it brutal.

Haven't sorted through all of the photos yet, but here's one I took last week in the early part of the climb.

http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n256/magicant2000/Europe/Europe551_edited-1.jpg

If Discovery is convinced Contador is better than Rasmussen in the mountains they need to prove it. They can take charge of the pace with the entire team. They have enough good riders to reduce the field to 10 riders or so well before the final climb. They can then let Contador do his damage. Levi would likely still be in the final group. Unfortunately I will be out Wednesday, and won't get to see the stage until later at night. It should be good. There is nothing to hold back at this point, so the damage will be severe.

Richard

+1

They are stronger than Rabobank. It will get even better if Astana wants to help dismantle Rabobank. Both Astana and DISCO have the potential to destroy the field and hopefully MR's support staff with it.

As much as I would like Soler to win the Polka Dot jersey, he cracked yesterday. Unless that he deliberately held back at that point since KOM points were not going to be lost to Rasmussan, I think Soler is unfortunately spent.



He got to the final hill in the MR group at least. There's no style points for the climber's jersey (Though soler offering water to MR the other day got some), and winners have often just showed up for just 2-3 stages, and collected early points the other days. Many winners (Virenque for one), never came close to winning big mountain stages. Soler's in good shape to win climber because he can choose which points to go for.

iirc there's only 1 spot, shortly before the tunnels right before Gourette, and it lasts for about 30 meters.

Sure, if you stay on the road... :p



The beauty of the Garmin is that it exaggerates climbs -- so much more compelling to share. Col de Marie Blanque was actually much tougher, imo. That had a couple stretches of 1km that averaged 13% and topped out above 15%.

He got to the final hill in the MR group at least. There's no style points for the climber's jersey (Though soler offering water to MR the other day got some), and winners have often just showed up for just 2-3 stages, and collected early points the other days. Many winners (Virenque for one), never came close to winning big mountain stages. Soler's in good shape to win climber because he can choose which points to go for.

I thought the offering of water was great. The great thing is that Soler is now a household name in cycling, and Barloworld really has a star in its hands.

One of my favorite comments is the post rest day warnings of cyclists "locking up" and having very bad days.

So, I am sure Wednesday will feature massive time losses by Rasmussen as his yellow jersey commitments hurt is rest day ride time, thereby elevating the English speaking Evans and Leipheimer to the podium.

Seriously, as enjoyable as this tour has been to follow (not unlike last years -- up until the revelations), it would be nice to see one of the pre-tour GC hopefuls truly conjure up an inspired attack. Right now Rasmussen and Contador certainly deserve their podium positions.

In the unlikely event Kloden or Leipheimer attack, will Rasmussen respond?

One of my favorite comments is the post rest day warnings of cyclists "locking up" and having very bad days.

So, I am sure Wednesday will feature massive time losses by Rasmussen as his yellow jersey commitments hurt is rest day ride time, thereby elevating the English speaking Evans and Leipheimer to the podium.

Seriously, as enjoyable as this tour has been to follow (not unlike last years -- up until the revelations), it would be nice to see one of the pre-tour GC hopefuls truly conjure up an inspired attack. Right now Rasmussen and Contador certainly deserve their podium positions.

In the unlikely event Kloden or Leipheimer attack, will Rasmussen respond?

Not worth asking. Levi doesn't have it. He has up to 2 accelerations, and those aren't good to begin with .. well, against the competition at hand; besides, if he attacks, whose wheel is he going to sit on? Kloden is a beaten man.

Not worth asking. Levi doesn't have it. He has up to 2 accelerations, and those aren't good to begin with .. well, against the competition at hand; besides, if he attacks, whose wheel is he going to sit on? Kloden is a beaten man.

Hey, isn't this made for TV? I mean, clearly the U.S. audience demands an American winner.

Forget the individuals, I guess this is more of a cycling tactics question, considering Ras has proved he can time trail and limit losses (well, once), does he even respond to someone he has 4 or 5 minutes on?

The US audience is a fraction of the European audience watching.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v223/botto/France/aub13.jpg

Priceless pic. Looking forward to Wed...

Pau is over 40 km away from the base of the Aubisque.

So? 40km is nothing when talking about what the weather will be almost two days from now, and they're not going to spend five hours on the Aubisque. There are many climbs before it, in the general region. If it's only raining halfway up the Aubisque, it won't make any real difference, but the weather will be important if much of the stage is rainy.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v223/botto/France/aub13.jpg

I'd give my right nut to live around this.

~* sigh *~