Professional Cycling For the Fans - Before you get too exited about Rasmussen in Yellow...

i agree with richard. i don't think anyone is being reasonable in their expectations of rassmussen here. the only reason he even finished so high last year was that he purposely lost tons of time before the mountains so that nobody would chase him in his kom bid. rassmussen is a climbing SPECIALIST, not the type of all arounder who can legitimately win the tour. and no, he's not necessarily the best climber in the peloton, it's just that the other great climbers are either more focused on tour strategy or not trying to waste their time and energy. do you really think chicken could just drop sastre, mayo, and contador on a cat 1 climb in a single day race? i hardly think so. wait for the pyrenees and see how much of a lead rassmussen has on the gc's.

The only way Rasmussen wouldn't get passed by multiple riders in the TT is if he gets to start last. He's that bad at TT.

Does anyone here with a better memory than me remember if and when a GC contender won 3 mountain stages in the tour by 3 plus minutes?

Richard

That is rare, but very misleading. Merckx, Pantani, Bahamontes all regularly had 3 or more mountian stages where they had 3 or more minutes on all but 1 or 2 riders.

I think it possible for Rasmussen to do the same. Then if he does the question will be who are the one or two riders each time? If they are G.C. contenders he could do this and end off the podium. If the same 1 or 2 G.C. guys he podiums, perhaps even second. If other climbers looking for stage wins or Polka dot he could win.

But lots of IFs there.

My thinking is all based on stage 8. He was 4 minutes better up the hill than everyone else (but Mayo). It was right before a rest day, and so whoever could have climbed better should have.

I guess some riders could think they'll pick up 10 minutes on Ras in TTs, and so wouldn't of pressed, but those 3 stages in pyrenees will be pretty much the same situation.... and can they press to keep up all 3 days.

No I don't think they can. I think they will all be blown off of the road by the sonic boom Ramussen will create when he accelerates on the climbs.

Richard


My thinking is all based on stage 8. He was 4 minutes better up the hill than everyone else (but Mayo). It was right before a rest day, and so whoever could have climbed better should have.

I guess some riders could think they'll pick up 10 minutes on Ras in TTs, and so wouldn't of pressed, but those 3 stages in pyrenees will be pretty much the same situation.... and can they press to keep up all 3 days.

No I don't think they can. I think they will all be blown off of the road by the sonic boom Ramussen will create when he accelerates on the climbs.

Richard

yeah, he'll be a yellow rocket shooting red polka dots!

TOUR DE FRANCE LEADER MICHAEL RASMUSSEN HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM DA

TOUR DE FRANCE LEADER MICHAEL RASMUSSEN HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM
DANISH NATIONAL TEAM - DANISH CYCLING UNION

Reut16:10 07-19-07

My thinking is all based on stage 8. He was 4 minutes better up the hill than everyone else (but Mayo). It was right before a rest day, and so whoever could have climbed better should have.

I guess some riders could think they'll pick up 10 minutes on Ras in TTs, and so wouldn't of pressed, but those 3 stages in pyrenees will be pretty much the same situation.... and can they press to keep up all 3 days.

Not true. The general feeling of the GC guys would have been that they could lose the tour on hte day, but not win it. Why risk blowing up chasing a pure climber? remember he got the time on early climbs and held it on the last one. Big risk for a GC guy to either go with him or try to catch him.

Look at the last climber to win, Pantani. He won the tour on two days, or one day depending how you look at it. One day = 8'57" on Jan. On 2 back to back days he put over 6 minutes on all but Rinero and Escartin. Of course he had improved his TT work doping only about 2'35" to Jan, pretty good.

If Rasmussen can come even close to Pantanis TT results in the first ITT he has plenty of chances to get mountian time. Pantani only had 2 nasty stages back to back. Ras has 3 and those following an ITT.

As others have said expect changes at the top for 4 days in a row.

Haha.. Well... what now?

Haha.. Well... what now?


Now he wins the TdF.

The only way Rasmussen wouldn't get passed by multiple riders in the TT is if he gets to start last. He's that bad at TT.

so much for that.

The Dane lost about FOURTEEN MINUTES in the two individual TT's in last year's Tour de France. He might have to TT better than that to win, eh? Perhaps he will draw inspiration from the Yellow Johnny.

As the investor booklet says in small print: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results, etc...." Perhaps its too small for you to read, I keep forgetting how old you are ! :D

Now he wins the TdF.


No way. Very incorrect. Botto said it was not possible; so its most definitely not in the cards. He also added that if you thought that Rasmussen would win the TdF, it means that you know nothing about racing. So don't even think of it.

People are eating a whole lot of words in this thread. Id say TWO feet in mouth for some.

Of course he had improved his TT work doping only about 2'35" to Jan, pretty good.

If Rasmussen can come even close to Pantanis TT results in the first ITT he has plenty of chances to get mountian time. Pantani only had 2 nasty stages back to back. Ras has 3 and those following an ITT.



Mission accomplished on matching Pantanis TT results (first one anyway).

The rest of the field also has 3 nasty stages back to back, and I see it all as clearly advantaging Rasmussen.

Stages 14,15 and 16 are extremely well suited to whoever is the best climber, and no team tactics can have any influence on the outcome. You can either keep up or you can't. Unless there's a real headwind, climbing @15-17kmh has no drafting benefits. Including stage 8, has there been many past tdfs, with 4 hard moutain top finishes? Other than Pantani, I don't think any recent events had the potential for a climber to win by taking several stages. They've all been TT specialists that just had to mark the field, instead of needing to drop them.

I guess if Kloden or Evans can stick with Rasmussen all 3 days on those stages, they have an awesome chance, but if Ras is a better climber than they are, he'll get to keep any time he proves it by. Those stages giving Ras 6 minutes is a pretty fair expectation.


No it is not. How many grand tours have you watched?

Richard

+1. Evans, Contador, Kloeden, Mayo, Sastre all have better credentials for mountain top finishes than Rasmussen. Rasmussen will likely loose some time in the Pyrenees rather than gain it based on whats happened in previous years.

Good TT effort from him though.

Well. WOW scumbag leech valverde showed why he never does any of the work on climbs and in breakaway attacks. And the Chicken Roasted his a-s-s!! WOWSERS!!!! this is getting exciting but certainly should be noted to that these guys are all fast and I'm sure Rasmussen wouldn't have even considered keeping the jersey if he knew his TTing was that terrible. very nice and hat off to him.

I can't wait for the pics of the pass posted here.

Richard

I'm also willing to bet that his TT is greatly improved. However, I doubt it will be enough to win him the tour. I would not be surprised to see him finish somewhere in the 3rd to 6th place range.


My prediction still stands.

I think you can change it. All he needs is one more stellar mountain stage and it' s pretty much his.

It's hardly that simple. He not only needs another stellar stage, he can't have any real bad ones. I've seen Rasmussen lose lots of time in other mountain stages and it can happen again. For certain, he won't be allowed out on any breakaways and lots of other guys are going to attack. It's far from "his" at this point. I will still be surprised to see him finish better than 3rd or worse than a top 10.

ok well I think your wrong. This whole week all we heard was he can't TT. Well thats a mute point now. He is wearing yellow. He is not going to cave in so easy. Now his team has something to work for where in the past they didn't. Well see.....

It's hardly that simple. He not only needs another stellar stage, he can't have any real bad ones. I've seen Rasmussen lose lots of time in other mountain stages and it can happen again. For certain, he won't be allowed out on any breakaways and lots of other guys are going to attack. It's far from "his" at this point. I will still be surprised to see him finish better than 3rd or worse than a top 10.

When he lost time in the mountains, wasn't it right before or right after a big win in the mountains, or pulling up a teammate all day? In past tours, he didn't care about consistency or GC ambitions.

It's hardly that simple. He not only needs another stellar stage, he can't have any real bad ones. I've seen Rasmussen lose lots of time in other mountain stages and it can happen again. For certain, he won't be allowed out on any breakaways and lots of other guys are going to attack. It's far from "his" at this point. I will still be surprised to see him finish better than 3rd or worse than a top 10.

True enough. But that goes for all of the contenders at this point. Considering that Rasmussen has won the polka dot jersey on 3 occasions, I find it hard to believe that he is going to lose much, if any, time in the mountains. As Paul and Phil have said time and time again. Wearing the yellow makes people ride like they've never ridden before. Rasmussen rode the TT pretty damn well. Especially, when everyone was predicting him to lose the huge time. Considering the wet conditions its amazing that he didn't crash.
Things are so close now, that none of the top six riders can afford a bad day, nor can any of them allow someone else to break away. And friggin' Vino just rode himself into a position to scare the bejeezus out of all of them if he gets out on a break.

I don't see the Chicken self-destructing. Someone is going to have to ride up and rip that yellow off his back. Luckily for us fans, there are several riders close enough to possibly do that. There is going to be some aggressive riding coming up. The Tour is going to be pretty fun to watch.

Wow, I just never realized how much irrational hate there is for a skinny Dane. Just sad. Some people seem to hate him because he's "just" a pure climber. Some people say he's not even the best climber out of the GC contenders. Some people hate him because he's doping (show me someone who isn't).

It is amazing to me that this is so surprising to so many. It's a year without a clearly dominant rider, or even handful of riders. It is a year that favors climbing more than most. It is a year in which Ras (like Lance) builds 100% of his training around the TdF and only the TdF. He's got a long way to go, but today was a great day for Ras. I'm sorry that it bothers some of you so much when a lowly climber has some success. :p

1) Incorrect

2) I am pulling for Ras just like I pulled for Pereiro last year. I would like to see Kloden win, but have Chicken on the podium.

3) I thought it was very stupid to let him go off on a breakaway. I said it before the stage was raced.

4) He has his work cut out for him defending the yellow in the next 3 mountain stages. He may be able to pull it off, but there will be a lot of attacks. I suspect he will be alone without team support a lot.

5) I will be forever a Chicken fan because he caught Valverde. Valverde talks a lot of smack and got owned today.

Richard


Wow, I just never realized how much irrational hate there is for a skinny Dane. Just sad. Some people seem to hate him because he's "just" a pure climber. Some people say he's not even the best climber out of the GC contenders. Some people hate him because he's doping (show me someone who isn't).

It is amazing to me that this is so surprising to so many. It's a year without a clearly dominant rider, or even handful of riders. It is a year that favors climbing more than most. It is a year in which Ras (like Lance) builds 100% of his training around the TdF and only the TdF. He's got a long way to go, but today was a great day for Ras. I'm sorry that it bothers some of you so much when a lowly climber has some success. :p

4) He has his work cut out for him defending the yellow in the next 3 mountain stages. He may be able to pull it off, but there will be a lot of attacks. I suspect he will be alone without team support a lot.


He will have plenty of team support to get to the base of the final climbs over the next 3 days. Assuming he is in fact the best climber among GC hopefuls, I doubt he'll get dropped once he's there.

And the Chicken Roasted his a-s-s!! WOWSERS!!!!

It was interesting to see Ras jump out of the saddle as he passed Valverde. I think Ras was attempting to beat down Valverde's moral with a quick pass. He certainly made a statement.

... Brad

I am not sure how much team support he will have. Rabobank is a good team, but I expect them to come under huge pressure. I don't think any team could stand up to what is coming their way.

1) Astana is going to hit hard. They may go to the front and blister the pace right from the start.
2) Valverde is desperate. He will have to attack very hard, so expect his team to do likewise
3) Disco has promised the same, and JB knows how to blow apart the field
4) CSC will have to work to get Sastre back on track
5) Lotto has the easiest situation with Evans being well within striking distance
6) Vino is a shark and reckless. He smells blood in the water. The sort out is coming sooner rather than later.

Richard


He will have plenty of team support to get to the base of the final climbs over the next 3 days. Assuming he is in fact the best climber among GC hopefuls, I doubt he'll get dropped once he's there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzeknUUhRoE

That was brutal to watch.

Looks like most of the GC teams aren't even including Ras among their 5 choices to make the podium

http://www.velonews.com/tour2007/news/articles/12869.0.html

Looks like most of the GC teams aren't even including Ras among their 5 choices to make the podium

It certainly would be a mistake to discount him now. As much as I'm pulling for him, and believe in him, he really needs to have enough gas after today's effort to put on a his usual mtn prowess, and pull away once or twice. I don't see Contador and Evans (both good climbers) letting that happen, but we'll see.

With so much climbing coming up, I'm still not as high on the Astana riders as most of you. They do have the team strength working in their favor though. And that is my biggest worry for Ras -- on paper, Rabobank is plenty strong enough to get him to Paris in good shape. But I'm not getting any warm fuzzies there, so I'm not sure his mates will be willing to go all out for him and his lone wolf attitude.

Well thats a mute point now.

The point is moot, but I guess you can say the naysayers are quiet now.

Ras is one of my favorite riders (in top 3 with Popo and Bettini) but I'm really doubtful that he'll be wearing yellow into Paris. He's just too big of a target now, and it's going to be next to impossible to get away from the gc peleton. Unfortunetely, he needs to get away from that peleton in the mountains to have a chance.

The other gc's are for the most part better riders in the other stages, and as you saw today with Cadel Evans, a lot of time was made up there. If Astana (or a top gc team) keeps up with some of it's brutal attacks, I can see Ras falling behind and losing some of that time he's going to have to fight and brawl over in the mountain stages.

I'd say the Chicken has a very slim chance.

Last year's performance is not a fair comparison. He was riding for Menchov,and focused on KOM. Therefore no incentive to work in the TT's.

I don't think it's at all likely he can win this year. For one, he has to get to the point that Rabobank is working for him and not Rasmussen working for Menchov.

However, if he could gain another chunck of time in the Pyranees, and limit losses in the TTs, I wouldn't bet the ranch against him.


Wish, I would have placed a bet on him now.

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

Predictions, particularly about the future, are dangerous.

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

Only time will tell would have been a better response.

The chicken lost 30 seconds to Contador in the last TT. He can lose about a 2 minutes in the next TT. What are the chances he stays in yellow until Paris? Anyone?

^^^^
Way better than 50%.

He has to 1) not lose time to Contador on the Aubisque;
2) rely on Rabobank not to let anything funky happen on the transition stages;
3) ride a good, but not great TT.

He has obviously worked on his TT skills since last year. At least Valverde would agree with this.

I'd say the Chicken has a very slim chance.

Last year's performance is not a fair comparison. He was riding for Menchov,and focused on KOM. Therefore no incentive to work in the TT's.

I don't think it's at all likely he can win this year. For one, he has to get to the point that Rabobank is working for him and not Rasmussen working for Menchov.

However, if he could gain another chunck of time in the Pyranees, and limit losses in the TTs, I wouldn't bet the ranch against him.

Interesting that all of your conditions came true: Rabobank worked for him. He got another chunk of time in the Pyrenees (twice). Limited losses in the TT.

You may not have predicted it, and in hindsight it's kind of self-evident, but I give you full marks for the analysis!

Only time will tell would have been a better response.

The chicken lost 30 seconds to Contador in the last TT. He can lose about a 2 minutes in the next TT. What are the chances he stays in yellow until Paris? Anyone?

I would say they are good, but far from the sure thing many are now saying. remember my call BEFORE the first TT was that he could well lose the Yellow, but only for one day and gain it back on Sunday and then the question would be could he gain enough time in the mountians for the second TT. Take away the rain and I might well have been right!

Now a lot depends on how amny riders come out of the mouintians close enough to think thye have a change. And weather still may play a part. If one or two of the "safe" flat stages have significant cross winds they may be far from safe for Rasmussen. Any wind except a tailwind on the last ITT is a disaster for Ras. And while I would say it is more likely he will gain time on the last Mountian stage than that he will lose time, his losing time, even significant time is not out of the question.

leipheimer is only 5 minutes off the back and he is a way better tt rider then rasmussen.....not sure if he can make up enough time on the next tt stage and a few more top rides in the last few stages but who knows.....contador is looking good though and los chicken is only good in the mountains....its gonna be a nail biter.....

leipheimer is only 5 minutes off the back and he is a way better tt rider then rasmussen.....not sure if he can make up enough time on the next tt stage and a few more top rides in the last few stages but who knows.....contador is looking good though and los chicken is only good in the mountains....its gonna be a nail biter.....

I don't believe Leipheimer is capable of gaining 5 minutes on an improved Rasmussen in the last time trial. He needs a couple minutes in the last mountain stage. There is nothing to gain in the flat stages without a lot of luck. I think the only way for him to gain in the last mountain stage is to attack early and since Rasmussen won't just let him go, he'll need help from the rest of his team. If he attacks early, Disco will burn out before the last climb and he'll be on his own. Since Contador won't help, and Leipheimer isn't as good on the climbs, it would only serve to help Contador blow up Rasmussen on the last climb. In fact, this should be the team strategy to get Contador closer to yellow. Unfortunately, Leipheimer's chances are slim to none, unless he comes up with a whole lot more than he's shown so far. However, Contador's chances are great if Disco attacks early and hard.

Levi has to finish ahead of Kloeden and Evans, and they are both big favorites to win the TT, and with good conditions and a great ride could pick up to 6 minutes on Ras. Both of them have consistently challenged to win TTs, and have ton of incentive to try an all out Lemond-style TT. I'd expect from Levi another solid top 10 TT, probably 4th-5th.

Leipheimer didn't TT that well the last time, where do you figure on him grabbing a hold of 5 minutes??

Predictions, particularly about the future, are dangerous.


Pardon?

;)


I'm glad I don't have to eat my words. :D