Professional Cycling For the Fans - Before you get too exited about Rasmussen in Yellow...

The Dane lost about FOURTEEN MINUTES in the two individual TT's in last year's Tour de France. He might have to TT better than that to win, eh? Perhaps he will draw inspiration from the Yellow Johnny.

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

Mellow Johnny, and yes you are correct.

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

I'd say the Chicken has a very slim chance.

Last year's performance is not a fair comparison. He was riding for Menchov,and focused on KOM. Therefore no incentive to work in the TT's.

I don't think it's at all likely he can win this year. For one, he has to get to the point that Rabobank is working for him and not Rasmussen working for Menchov.

However, if he could gain another chunck of time in the Pyranees, and limit losses in the TTs, I wouldn't bet the ranch against him.

he went from 3rd (podium) to 7th because fo a TT. I think he had incentive for that TT.

^^^^
1) Presumably he won't make the mistake of riding a full on TT bike with a disc on a technical course again. (a major differnece that day was Armstrong made smarter equipment choices).

2) He may well start the next TT in yellow, which makes a difference from 3rd.

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

Disagree. Albi will be fun to watch.

The Dane lost about FOURTEEN MINUTES in the two individual TT's in last year's Tour de France. He might have to TT better than that to win, eh? Perhaps he will draw inspiration from the Yellow Johnny.

You could beat him. On a bike that where you got fitting advice on this freakin' forum.

That's how bad he is...


;)

he went from 3rd (podium) to 7th because fo a TT. I think he had incentive for that TT.

Incentive perhaps, hope no way. To stay on hte podium he would have had to stay within about a minute of Jan in an ITT. You can count the guys who managed that on the day on one hand. Also there is a difference between what a non TT guy can do when by good fortune he finds himself highly placed, but poorly prepaired and waht he can do when he finds himself well placed and well prepaired.

This is not to say he will win a TT or even come close, that would be a joke. But he may be able to limit his losses and the day after the first TT is a very nasty mountian stage. That combo may crack a lot of riders. But the combo gives him a chance. I won't write him off until Sunday unless he cracks in the TT.

The Dane lost about FOURTEEN MINUTES in the two individual TT's in last year's Tour de France. He might have to TT better than that to win, eh? Perhaps he will draw inspiration from the Yellow Johnny.

pantani couldn't TT either...until he was in yellow :eek:!

ed rader

he went from 3rd (podium) to 7th because fo a TT. I think he had incentive for that TT.

But the last TT, he was going to lose podium even if he rode 4 minutes faster. He'll definitely need a good breakaway on another stage to pad up lead.

keep in mind he ofter lurks.. thats about it. this is the first year he is going for the mellow yellow. I think he is better than many suspect. remember , he is usually all about the polka dot jersey. Time trial doesn't matter for that, simply points. he would often chill in the pack or even lose time on flat stages and just rack up some Mountain Points when they mattered most. I don't think he can win, not with the scumbag leech Valverde and Evans and Contrador being so strong currently. Sastre will win anyway... he's a great time trialist.....yeah right... but he's good enuff at it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzeknUUhRoE

that video is perfect

I forgot about how he almost wiped out a fan on that last crash.

While I agree, he has a slim chance. Do you actually believe he was going all out in the TT's last year? If you do, then you don't understand stage races. Only those with a GC chance or a chance at winning the TT go all out. Everyone else treats it like a rest day. Last year, all chickenman cared about was the king of the mountains, hence he road the TT easy. He still sucks compared to the others, but not 14 minutes sucks.

dont forget he may have been paractising i dont think any pro would want what happened last year again
found this on eurosport
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/17072007/58/tour-de-france-backstedt-ras-tt-chance.html
mind you i've got bikes hanging in my shed doesnt mean i can ride them fast !

chicken's chances to win are definitely slim, but they are there. obviously he needs to ride the best 2 TT's we've seen out of him so far and then assrape everyone in the pyrenees. i love it. it sure is alot more interesting then watching lance beat everyone in the mountains then the time trials.

I think there's a good chance that he's been seriously playing possum on the issue of the time trial. No way to tell unless he does or doesn't blow up in the ITTs coming up, but it would be interesting if everyone let him get away with the assumption that he wouldn't keep up later.

No he is not playing possum.

Richard


I think there's a good chance that he's been seriously playing possum on the issue of the time trial. No way to tell unless he does or doesn't blow up in the ITTs coming up, but it would be interesting if everyone let him get away with the assumption that he wouldn't keep up later.

lolololol ahahahaahaha if he's playing possum on the TT issue, then it would be THE most complex, longest implementation of strategy ever seen in any sport. lol the guy just isn't a TTer- just look at him. hopefully he can perform better than he has though.

I think there's a good chance that he's been seriously playing possum on the issue of the time trial. No way to tell unless he does or doesn't blow up in the ITTs coming up, but it would be interesting if everyone let him get away with the assumption that he wouldn't keep up later.

Uh, there are no more mountian stages before the first ITT. All the DSs are going to assume he has been working on TTs, but won;t be assuming that he has some miracle improvement. Where can playing possum come in? If he stays with his past performance then they can let him go in the Pyrenees, at least once because he will be minutes back. Then he would have to be near the top on the second TT. If he had that kind of TT ability he would play things straight and walk away with the Tour.

This weekend will tell all re Rasmussen. First the TT and then next day the mountian stage that has the best profile for him to gain major time. (Back to back HC climbs to a mountiantop finish with virtually no flat between them). Someone cracks on Sunday. The question is who.

+1 I suspect we may see a crack everyday in the mountains and time trials. Man what a tour.

Richard


Uh, there are no more mountian stages before the first ITT. All the DSs are going to assume he has been working on TTs, but won;t be assuming that he has some miracle improvement. Where can playing possum come in? If he stays with his past performance then they can let him go in the Pyrenees, at least once because he will be minutes back. Then he would have to be near the top on the second TT. If he had that kind of TT ability he would play things straight and walk away with the Tour.

This weekend will tell all re Rasmussen. First the TT and then next day the mountian stage that has the best profile for him to gain major time. (Back to back HC climbs to a mountiantop finish with virtually no flat between them). Someone cracks on Sunday. The question is who.

He mentioned in an interview that he "had not worked at all on time trials", yet there's another rider who is saying he definitely has been.

It's not that he needs to turn into some time trialing demon, it's just that if you avoid falling every ten seconds it takes a lot more to put time into you.

To win the tour he pretty much has to turn into a time trialing demon. The time trials are very decisive. He can't expect to lose 3 to 4 minutes in each one, and still have a chance.

Richard


He mentioned in an interview that he "had not worked at all on time trials", yet there's another rider who is saying he definitely has been.

It's not that he needs to turn into some time trialing demon, it's just that if you avoid falling every ten seconds it takes a lot more to put time into you.

I don;t think he'll win the GC but I'd be real happy if he did. 'm just glad he's having a chance to be bathed in yellow for a bit. He always impressed me in the mountains and I just like to see new people get their shot. I think it could be all Contador, but we'll see.

As of today the Flying Chicken is 2:34 ahead.

If he just loses 3 minutes per time trial, he will win the tour for sure.
There's a lot of other riders who need to build time in the mountains if they hope to win the tour, and might end up pulling rasmussen with them

If he loses 3 minutes per time trail to the GC contenders he will lose the tour for sure.

Richard


If he just loses 3 minutes per time trial, he will win the tour for sure.
There's a lot of other riders who need to build time in the mountains if they hope to win the tour, and might end up pulling rasmussen with them

If he loses 3 minutes per time trail to the GC contenders he will lose the tour for sure.

Completely disagree. I think he would be ecstatic to lose only 6 minutes in the 2 TT, and easily make that up in the Pyrenees. Some people still think he will lose double digits in just the first TT, which I believe is putting too much stock in his one big choke, as well as previous slow performances. The choke performance is a valid concern, but not insurmountable (and I believe he spent some training time on TT skills this year). The previous slow times are largely irrelevant, since (as already noted many times) he was basically treating those as rest days.

Where do you guys get the idea that Rasmussen can just go and ride himself to a 3 or 4 minute advantage whenever he feels like it? If that were the case he would do it everyday. I doubt if he is even the best climber among the GC contenders. If all of the teams thought he could do that they would just crack him on a climb, and be done with him. He is a good rider, but he is not the greatest climber ever. He can't stay away from the big boys whenever he wants.

Richard


Completely disagree. I think he would be ecstatic to lose only 6 minutes in the 2 TT, and easily make that up in the Pyrenees. Some people still think he will lose double digits in just the first TT, which I believe is putting too much stock in his one big choke, as well as previous slow performances. The choke performance is a valid concern, but not insurmountable (and I believe he spent some training time on TT skills this year). The previous slow times are largely irrelevant, since (as already noted many times) he was basically treating those as rest days.

I doubt if he is even the best climber among the GC contenders.

You lost me, right there.

Well I am sorry to burst your bubble, but it is true. Being allowed to go on a breakaway because no one cares about your KOM jersey does not mean you can blow everyone away.

Poor ole crippled Vino took time away from Rasmussen on the final climb of his breakaway win. The Moreau group took quite a bit, and they were not trying to catch him. Mayo took even more.

If you choose to ignor the numbers so be it. Look at the time gaps on his breakaway win last year. The GC guys were closing it very fast although they were no going after him. They were more interested in putting time into Landis.

Richard


You lost me, right there.

Well I am sorry to burst your bubble

You are considerably off base. If you want to argue that Rasmussen has very little chance at winning GC, that's fine... you are probably in the majority. But to say that he isn't even the best climber among the GC contenders is way, way out there.

Well how do you explain Vino cutting into his lead on the final climb of stage 8? Did Rasmussen feel sorry for him and sit up? At 10km to go Rasmussen had a 5 minute and 30 seconds lead. Kloden almost had to come to a stop and wait for Vino, and still put time into Rasmussen. Mayo took almost 2 minutes on Rasmussen in the final 3 or 4 kilometers. How can that be?

Richard


You are considerably off base. If you want to argue that Rasmussen has very little chance at winning GC, that's fine... you are probably in the majority. But to say that he isn't even the best climber among the GC contenders is way, way out there.

As I remember it, he lost close to a minute in the 2k flats after the top to groups behind.

I think he's got a couple more 3-5 min wins in him this tour. The stage he won showed who the best climber in the field is because it was the stage with the most to gain from a solo climb (no long flats after last climb)

Other than Kloden, who is really such a great time trialist in this year's tour that he would have such small chances at winning? If he goes on upcoming mountain stages, will any team let him get signficant time?

Would you like to make a wager on that? The only way he goes for a 3 to 5 minute win is if he completely blows the time trail, and is no longer a threat for GC. Two other riders had breakaway victories in the mountains in this tour. They were just as impressive as Rasmussen, and the ride yesterday may have been more so.

Richard


As I remember it, he lost close to a minute in the 2k flats after the top to groups behind.

I think he's got a couple more 3-5 min wins in him this tour. The stage he won showed who the best climber in the field is because it was the stage with the most to gain from a solo climb (no long flats after last climb)

I didn't say Rasmussen would not win. I doubt if he will, but I think it was stupid to give him time.

As long as he is in yellow the others will respond to any attack he may make.

Evans is pretty good at the ITT. Levi, Valverde, Sastre, Menchov, Vino, can do pretty well if they are in form.

Richard




Other than Kloden, who is really such a great time trialist in this year's tour that he would have such small chances at winning? If he goes on upcoming mountain stages, will any team let him get signficant time?

As I remember it, he lost close to a minute in the 2k flats after the top to groups behind.

I think he's got a couple more 3-5 min wins in him this tour. The stage he won showed who the best climber in the field is because it was the stage with the most to gain from a solo climb (no long flats after last climb)

incorrect

I don't think he's got a chance at the overall, but the random comment about a BF member beating him made me laugh. I went back and checked..in the disastrous 2005 TT shown in the video above, Rasmussen lost 7 minutes and 47 seconds to Lance. Horrible performance, right?

...that meant he averaged 41.8 kph for 55.5k, or a hair under 26 mph. Crashes and all, on a technical course. The Pro Tour riders are on a whole different planet from us. :)

I doubt if he performs like he did in 2005.

Richard


I don't think he's got a chance at the overall, but the random comment about a BF member beating him made me laugh. I went back and checked..in the disastrous 2005 TT shown in the video above, Rasmussen lost 7 minutes and 47 seconds to Lance. Horrible performance, right?

...that meant he averaged 41.8 kph for 55.5k, or a hair under 26 mph. Crashes and all, on a technical course. The Pro Tour riders are on a whole different planet from us. :)

Does anyone here with a better memory than me remember if and when a GC contender won 3 mountain stages in the tour by 3 plus minutes?

Richard


As I remember it, he lost close to a minute in the 2k flats after the top to groups behind.

I think he's got a couple more 3-5 min wins in him this tour. The stage he won showed who the best climber in the field is because it was the stage with the most to gain from a solo climb (no long flats after last climb)

i think contador is prolly a better climber than ras. even though chicken can fly up a hill like nobody's business, that doesn't make him the best climber. if that were true, lance would have been the best climber. a true climber is able to change cadences without blowing up as often as he wants or close to that.

ras, like lance, has only proven to this point that he can show everyone his back wheel on a mountain stage or 2 a tour. you can't just win the TdF on that alone though. that would be cool if chicken can just TT up the last climb to a minutes gap on every opportunity, but he hasn't shown he can do that yet, and it's a little far-fetched.

Well how do you explain Vino cutting into his lead on the final climb of stage 8? Did Rasmussen feel sorry for him and sit up? At 10km to go Rasmussen had a 5 minute and 30 seconds lead. Kloden almost had to come to a stop and wait for Vino, and still put time into Rasmussen. Mayo took almost 2 minutes on Rasmussen in the final 3 or 4 kilometers. How can that be?

Richard

Rasmussen was spent from having built up his lead earlier in the stage climbs.

Where do you guys get the idea that Rasmussen can just go and ride himself to a 3 or 4 minute advantage whenever he feels like it? If that were the case he would do it everyday. I doubt if he is even the best climber among the GC contenders. If all of the teams thought he could do that they would just crack him on a climb, and be done with him. He is a good rider, but he is not the greatest climber ever. He can't stay away from the big boys whenever he wants.

Richard

Richard...you get it.

Rasmussen may be the best climber in this tour, but if so, it isn't by much. You certainly can't judge it based on what has happened so far. At this point, none of the GC contenders cared if he went on a break - as long as he didn't get too far out. We'll know in the next mountain stages when the major contenders know their chances to put time on others is limited. I'm betting that Rasmussen can't ride away from them unless he's in a position where they don't care about him. I'm also willing to bet that his TT is greatly improved. However, I doubt it will be enough to win him the tour. I would not be surprised to see him finish somewhere in the 3rd to 6th place range.

Stages 14,15 and 16 are extremely well suited to whoever is the best climber, and no team tactics can have any influence on the outcome. You can either keep up or you can't. Unless there's a real headwind, climbing @15-17kmh has no drafting benefits. Including stage 8, has there been many past tdfs, with 4 hard moutain top finishes? Other than Pantani, I don't think any recent events had the potential for a climber to win by taking several stages. They've all been TT specialists that just had to mark the field, instead of needing to drop them.

I guess if Kloden or Evans can stick with Rasmussen all 3 days on those stages, they have an awesome chance, but if Ras is a better climber than they are, he'll get to keep any time he proves it by. Those stages giving Ras 6 minutes is a pretty fair expectation.

No it is not. How many grand tours have you watched?

Richard


Stages 14,15 and 16 are extremely well suited to whoever is the best climber, and no team tactics can have any influence on the outcome. You can either keep up or you can't. Unless there's a real headwind, climbing @15-17kmh has no drafting benefits. Including stage 8, has there been many past tdfs, with 4 hard moutain top finishes? Other than Pantani, I don't think any recent events had the potential for a climber to win by taking several stages. They've all been TT specialists that just had to mark the field, instead of needing to drop them.

I guess if Kloden or Evans can stick with Rasmussen all 3 days on those stages, they have an awesome chance, but if Ras is a better climber than they are, he'll get to keep any time he proves it by. Those stages giving Ras 6 minutes is a pretty fair expectation.

I contend Mayo is near the best pure climber out there, but the TdF, unlike the Giro, can't be won by a pure climber because TTs count for too much. Exception: Pantani.

I think there's a good chance that he's been seriously playing possum on the issue of the time trial.

A rational person would have to believe that he's done some work on his time trialing given the disaster of the past. I doubt he's turned himself into an Indurain, but he's most certainly improved. How much has he improved, and can he take more BIG chunks of time next week? Those are the questions indeed.

... Brad