Professional Cycling - Kloden will win...

A comparison of last years TT times. Obviously things can change in a year. Gunchar won both so times are down from GC on 52 and 57km TT's. Bold is total time lost to Gunchar.
52km 57km Total
Kloden 1.43 .41 2.24
Evans 1.49 3.43 5.32
Sastre 2.10 4.42 7.22
Levi 6.05 6.02 12.07
Rass 6.29 8.51 15.20
Moreau 2.03 5.33 7.36
Menchov 1.43 4.33 6.16
Mayo 5.36 abandoned

See a pattern by second TT? Everyone is tired but Kloden is stronger. You can compare with current GC and decide who's gonna get pinched by 2nd TT. Just some hard numbers so that when Phil and Paul are saying they don't know who will win it is because if they brought this up there would be no suspense.
Looks like Evans has the best chance. Vallverde crashed last year so he's a wildcard w/ Contador and Mayo - he can climb but I doubt he's become Jan Jr. on the flats.

all these times are nonsense. First of all Levi has made major improvements and so has Sastre (in technique) . last year different roads different circumstances. Have you looked at the TT stages? they do not favor traditional TT'er only. They have some decent climbs and more twisties..

there is absolutely no doubt that if the TdF were won by the best GT rider, then klodi would win. however, there is some question as to whether astana will give him the go ahead to ride for himself, much less support. i have to say though, the fact that klodie didn't wait for vino again is good sign.

I don't see any type of team conflict within Astana over leadership. I think it's all about getting on the podium, and Kloden is the team's best chance right now.

I would absolutely love to see Kloden finally win the TdF.

there is absolutely no doubt that if the TdF were won by the best GT rider, then klodi would win. however, there is some question as to whether astana will give him the go ahead to ride for himself, much less support. i have to say though, the fact that klodie didn't wait for vino again is good sign.

Word. Kloden already gave up about a minute supporting Vino. But Kashechkin was in the group with Vino today, so he wasn't all alone. I wouldn't put it past Astana to call Kloden back again if Vino is caught out in no man's land solo again. Hopefully, they've realized that they're best chance to win (or podium) is to throw support to Kloden.

I don't see any type of team conflict within Astana over leadership. I think it's all about getting on the podium, and Kloden is the team's best chance right now.

I would absolutely love to see Kloden finally win the TdF.then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?

then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?


because even tho kloden has superior talent he does not have the wherewithal to assume the mantle of leadership, imo :eek:.

ed rader

he doesn't need it this year. last year when he wasn't even in form he only came in third to pereiro, who got that idiotic breakaway (the mistake of the entire peloton), and roid landis, who was on some really killer gear all year. this year, he doesn't even have to deal with any ultra hot racer like flandis. do you really think there's any way ras ciould put enough time into him in the mountains, or valverde could get enough time bonuses, or karpets could gain that much time in the ITT's? it's so his Tour to lose it's not even funny.

he doesn't need it this year. last year when he wasn't even in form he only came in third to pereiro, who got that idiotic breakaway (the mistake of the entire peloton), and roid landis, who was on some really killer gear all year. this year, he doesn't even have to deal with any ultra hot racer like flandis. do you really think there's any way ras ciould put enough time into him in the mountains, or valverde could get enough time bonuses, or karpets could gain that much time in the ITT's? it's so his Tour to lose it's not even funny.

the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them :eek:!

ed rader

because even tho kloden has superior talent he does not have the wherewithal to assume the mantle of leadership, imo :eek:.

With race radio and the constant communication between riders and DS, why does the GC contender need to be a leader?

the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them :eek:!

ed rader
i'm not talking excuses, i'm talking klodi's great chances of winning this year, and not only that, vino's near lack thereof.

Who has been buffaloed? I think the only rider that deserves to win is the winner.

This tour is hard to predict. I hate to admit it but the best rider so far is Valverde. Kloden is probably the best time trialist in the GC contenders along with Evans. I suspect that there will be a lot of surprises before Paris. Vino will probably try a suicide breakaway if he heals up. It will probably fail. Kloden could start having tailbone problems and get dropped. Valverde may have a bad day in the mountains, or a less than stellar time trial. If Rasmussen survives the TT leading the GC then he will be attacked merciously, and may crack. Rasmussen's team may not support him 100% after his comments. Levi could have another poor time trial. And Yada yada yada. That is why this year's tour is so exciting.

Richard


the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them :eek:!

ed rader

Who has been buffaloed? I think the only rider that deserves to win is the winner.

This tour is hard to predict. I hate to admit it but the best rider so far is Valverde. Kloden is probably the best time trialist in the GC contenders along with Evans. I suspect that there will be a lot of surprises before Paris. Vino will probably try a suicide breakaway if he heals up. It will probably fail. Kloden could start having tailbone problems and get dropped. Valverde may have a bad day in the mountains, or a less than stellar time trial. If Rasmussen survives the TT leading the GC then he will be attacked merciously, and may crack. Rasmussen's team may not support him 100% after his comments. Levi could have another poor time trial. And Yada yada yada. That is why this year's tour is so exciting.

Richard


everyone. vino was heavily favored to win this tour.

ed rader

everyone. vino was heavily favored to win this tour.

ed rader


Fooled, yeah, what the hell were we all thinking, that Vino could win:rolleyes:

Heal up Vino.

Fooled, yeah, what the hell were we all thinking, that Vino could win:rolleyes:

Heal up Vino.

another year...another excuse :eek:.

ed rader

There is a difference between being the favorite, and "deserving" to win.

Richard

another year...another excuse :eek:.

ed rader

What was his excuse last year? Hardly an excuse!

What was his excuse last year? Hardly an excuse!


i know the crash will be the excuse this year :eek:!

ed rader

all these times are nonsense. First of all Levi has made major improvements and so has Sastre (in technique) . last year different roads different circumstances. Have you looked at the TT stages? they do not favor traditional TT'er only. They have some decent climbs and more twisties..

Nonesense? lol. They are from the TDF last year. Nonesense is thinking Levi has made major TT improvements.:roflmao:

A comparison of last years TT times. Obviously things can change in a year. Gunchar won both so times are down from GC on 52 and 57km TT's. Bold is total time lost to Gunchar.
52km 57km Total
Kloden 1.43 .41 2.24
Evans 1.49 3.43 5.32
Sastre 2.10 4.42 7.22
Levi 6.05 6.02 12.07
Rass 6.29 8.51 15.20
Moreau 2.03 5.33 7.36
Menchov 1.43 4.33 6.16
Mayo 5.36 abandoned

See a pattern by second TT? Everyone is tired but Kloden is stronger. You can compare with current GC and decide who's gonna get pinched by 2nd TT. Just some hard numbers so that when Phil and Paul are saying they don't know who will win it is because if they brought this up there would be no suspense.
Looks like Evans has the best chance. Vallverde crashed last year so he's a wildcard w/ Contador and Mayo - he can climb but I doubt he's become Jan Jr. on the flats.

Cool...let's let the riders know and they can all go to the beach and knock down some Petron and kick back.

Since it's a done deal...

;)

Nonesense? lol. They are from the TDF last year. Nonesense is thinking Levi has made major TT improvements.:roflmao:

I guess we will wait and see. I am betting on the fact that Bruyneel knows what's going on. I also wonder if Levi really feels as bad as he is letting on.

See, at longer and more difficult races that last more than an hour, there's a lot of head games that are played. Also know that Levi had a disastrous TT last year. Despite that, he didn't quit and that showed me a lot.

There are only two people in the whole world that really know.

For the record, I don't think Levi can win the Tour, but I think he's a better rider now than he's been, probably since his Vuelta podium.

I guess we will wait and see. I am betting on the fact that Bruyneel knows what's going on. I also wonder if Levi really feels as bad as he is letting on.

See, at longer and more difficult races that last more than an hour, there's a lot of head games that are played. Also know that Levi had a disastrous TT last year. Despite that, he didn't quit and that showed me a lot.

There are only two people in the whole world that really know.

For the record, I don't think Levi can win the Tour, but I think he's a better rider now than he's been, probably since his Vuelta podium.

incorrect.

He had 2.

Levi won't podium.

If Kloden's win requires assitance from his team he's sunk...

then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?



By stage 8 they weren't ready to write off Vino. (and they may end up regretting having had Kloden wait.)

By Stage 9, they knew Vino's performance was sufficiently in doubt that they sent Kloden ahead.

By the end of Stage 9, Vino knew his chances were over, to the extent one of the toughest guys in the TDF broke into tears.

Part of the reason Vino knows its over for him, is that Astana now has to fully support Kloden.

incorrect.

He had 2.

Levi won't podium.

What's correct is he finished eight minutes ahead of Rasmussen last year despite riding like crap.

And Rasmussen was in excess of 28 minutes off the lead despite his mountainous exploits.

Hey, maybe Rasmussen's improved a half hour or more in a year.

Or maybe not.

And I didn't say he'd podium, I said I thought he was riding the best he has since his Vuelta podium.

Point...there's a ton of racing left and no one knows what can happen to the other riders.

What's correct is he finished eight minutes ahead of Rasmussen last year despite riding like crap.

And Rasmussen was in excess of 28 minutes off the lead despite his mountainous exploits.

Hey, maybe Rasmussen's improved a half hour or more in a year.

Or maybe not.

And I didn't say he'd podium, I said I thought he was riding the best he has since his Vuelta podium.

Point...there's a ton of racing left and no one knows what can happen to the other riders.


Because he was going for the polka dot jersey and had no desire to waste energy any other way. Being 28 minutes off, meant 4/5 of jack ***** to him.

Because he was going for the polka dot jersey and had no desire to waste energy any other way. Being 28 minutes off, meant 4/5 of jack ***** to him.

Though not as pronounced as Baha one year! (Legend has it he stopped after the last KOM points line for Ice Cream once). Yet eventually he was convinecd he could TT well enough to win and did. Last besides to win KOM and GC in the same year also. Not to say he will. I'd bet against it, but I would not give foolish odds against him either.

All this presumes he doesn't lose time in the mountains. I think he'll lose time on stages 14 and 15 to Contador, Sastre, and possibly a couple others.

Thank you OP for good research. It gives a decent idea what the TT might shake out.

Did Gunchar retire?

Gonchar didn't enter this year. He's under some suspicion.

Gonchar didn't enter this year. He's under some suspicion.

He was fired a month ago by T-Mobile for his blood results in two races being "questionable."

Legend has it he stopped after the last KOM points line for Ice Cream once.

:roflmao:

I really hope that this is true. To bad that's impossible because he's never tasted ice cream

All this presumes he doesn't lose time in the mountains. I think he'll lose time on stages 14 and 15 to Contador, Sastre, and possibly a couple others.

Just some stats from 06 tour stages 15, 16, and 17

Stage 15 won by Schleck
Kloden 1:10 back
Sastre 1:35
Levi 1:49

Stage 16 won by the Chicken
Sastre 1:41 back
Evans 1:56
Kloden 1:56
Levi 3:24

Stage 17 won by Phlandis
Sastre 5:42 back ( he rode like a maniac. total props)
Kloden 7:08
Evans 7:20

Because he was going for the polka dot jersey and had no desire to waste energy any other way. Being 28 minutes off, meant 4/5 of jack ***** to him.

And why is that???

Because last year the first ITT came in stage 7. Where Rasmussen finished 114th, six and a half minutes back and was, in the overall 81st, 7.20 back, so his race was done before the climbing even started.

All he had left was the KOM.

BTW...just for fun I went back and looked up Rasmussen's results for the first two climbing stages from last year's Tour. They started, obviously, in the Pyrenees.

Stage 10, 78th, 7.23 back from Mercado...there were 3 climbs, he got no KOM points on the first two (the second of which was HC) and 10 on the third. He was 64th, 11.25 back on overall.
Stage 11, 36th, 11.08 back from Menchov. He picked up 25 KOM points and he and Boogerd rode Menchov to victory.

If the '07 Tour was set up like '06, we wouldn't be having this cyberconversation.

So what's the point? Rasmussen's never been here before. He can't ride like he's going for KOM points (note he was losing time to overall, even in mountain stages). And his TT in the past has not been good. So, nobody knows, including him if he's good enough. I'd bet not.

A comparison of last years TT times. Obviously things can change in a year. Gunchar won both so times are down from GC on 52 and 57km TT's. Bold is total time lost to Gunchar.
52km 57km Total
Kloden 1.43 .41 2.24
Evans 1.49 3.43 5.32
Sastre 2.10 4.42 7.22
Levi 6.05 6.02 12.07
Rass 6.29 8.51 15.20
Moreau 2.03 5.33 7.36
Menchov 1.43 4.33 6.16
Mayo 5.36 abandoned

See a pattern by second TT? Everyone is tired but Kloden is stronger. You can compare with current GC and decide who's gonna get pinched by 2nd TT. Just some hard numbers so that when Phil and Paul are saying they don't know who will win it is because if they brought this up there would be no suspense.
Looks like Evans has the best chance. Vallverde crashed last year so he's a wildcard w/ Contador and Mayo - he can climb but I doubt he's become Jan Jr. on the flats.

The problem with that is it doesn't reflect Kloden's injury. A healthy Kloden with his teamleader Vino out, would likely be the new favorite. With Kloden's fracture, Valverde looks best followed by Evans. I don't Chicken has gapped Valverde enough in the Alps to hold off the others, and Chicken probably won't open enough in the remaining mountains to offset the nine minutes or so I expect him to loose in the 2 TT stages when he is pushing for the GC.