Professional Cycling For the Fans - Rasmussen will win the TDF

He's got 2:23 on Contador. There's one mountain stage left. It appears unlikely that anyone can put any time into Rasmussen in the mountains.

So unless Contador can drop Rasmussen on the Aubisque (which appears unlikely), it's likely that Rasmussen goes into the final TT with a 2:23 lead on Rasmussen, (and larger gaps on everyone else.)

In the first TT, Rasmussen only lost 37 seconds to Contador, so it appears unlikely Contador could overcome a 2 minute plus deficit.

Barring a meltdown the Chicken is your 2007 TDF Winner.

Chicken showed a little weakness today, but it was only a little

Too bad he was kicked off the national team for failing to comply with the drug testing rules. Another black eye for the TDF.

naaaaah,

He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.

What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.

I'm not conceding anything to the chicken yet. There is one more mountain stage, a couple of flat stages and the TT yet to come. Personally, I think Contador is being used to make Rasmussen work in the mountains so they can try to put some time into him on the flats via a break then nail him in the final TT.

I"m gonna jump on the Ras FTW bandwagon.

What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.

Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.


My bet though is that neither Contador, nor Rasmussen can drop the other.

naaaaah,

He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.

I didn't say he was dopin'. I did say he failed to comply with rules and was kicked off the national team. More than a few people in the sport are a bit pissed by his behavior--and to those who don't follow the tour closely it will be viewed as just more evidence that cycling is a sport that isn't worth following.

http://www.velonews.com/tour2007/news/articles/12882.0.html

He may win. If it rains again for the final ITT he likely will. I think it will be hard for Evans to pull back 4 minutes in the TT, but not impossible if the roads are clear. Contador could put 2 minutes into him in the final TT. This could be the year where the GC guys are fighting for time bonuses on stage 20.

Richard

The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.

^^^^
See the Levi flyer thread I started.

The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.

Won't happen on Tuesday.









Maybe Wednesday though. :p :D

I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.

What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.

Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?

I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.

Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?

Once you crack (which Menchov did in the front group), it's hard to recover and be helpful to a teammate who's being put under pressure on a serious climb.

Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching.

Well, that's the story Paul and Phil were trying to sell, as well. But I think that had more to do with adding to the coming drama. It looked to me like Ras was bird-dogging... milton berle-ing, if you will. The biggest mistake Ras could have made today was cranking out one of his mountain dominations, at the risk of leaving himself spent for the rest of the tour.

I do agree, though, that Disco's team strength could be a major fly in Rasmussen's ointment down the homestretch.

I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er. :D

I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....

Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.

Touché. :)

I meant the next stage.

I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er. :D

I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....

The last time trial suited Ras. I would expect him to lose more time on the second one. The race is far from over. I would be shocked (barring chrashes and the like) for Ras to not podium. But even that is remotely possible. A good ride on Wednesday and he could be positioned to be the First since Eddy to have Yellow and Polka Dot at the end.

But nothing is final yet.

He showed a little. I really didn't think he would cover the last attack before the summit, but he dug deep. If you get a chance to see the replay the motorbikes ahead slowed Contador a little. Even if they were not there I think Chicken would have caught back up when the road leveled a little.

I have to wonder how many attacks does Contador have in him? That was serious work.

Richard


I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.

I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier? :fight:

Yea he only attacked 6 times or so. Lazy bum. Rasmussen had 2 teamates with him for one. The road looked a little steeper when he attacked for another.

Richard


I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier? :fight:

Won't happen on Tuesday.









Maybe Wednesday though. :p :D

I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.


Errr that's about what I said....Yeah I know it's not tomorrow I keep thinking today is Sunday for some stupid reason.

I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier? :fight:

They would have put much more time into everyone else...including Levi.

Boogard hammered up the climb again today. I guess contador waited till Boogard slowed a bit, then went. I guess there's a rule that prevents team leaders from carrying horse whips cuz Ras had to eventually go chase him down himself.

I'm not sure what disco can do next stage, because the only one he'd chase might be contador or evans at this stage. It would be cool if Levi tried something next stage, but Boogard seems to go fast enough for Levi and Cadel.

They would have put much more time into everyone else...including Levi.


Time to stop worrying about Levi is.......now.

Errr that's about what I said....Yeah I know it's not tomorrow I keep thinking today is Sunday for some stupid reason.

The critical difference I see is that I don't expect that Levi will be the one drawing Rasmussen out. I don't think Levi will be able to gap Rasmussen, or Evans, or Kloden or Sastre. He might be able to sweep up some of their pieces after someone else cracks them though.

^^^^
That's why I think Levi needs to take a flyer on an early climb, where Rabobank has to decide whether to let him go or chase. I agree Levi doesn't appear to have to power to just pull away up the Aubisque.

^^^^
That's why I think Levi needs to take a flyer on an early climb, where Rabobank has to decide whether to let him go or chase. I agree Levi doesn't appear to have to power to just pull away up the Aubisque.

The peloton would never allow that to occur. Not only Rabobank, but a couple of the other teams would dig in to stop that from happening. I think the strategy of letting Contador crack riders, and having Levi close behind to make them pay for cracking is a sounder strategy.

I can imagine George and Popovich being used to make lots of riders drop off (like they've done in a number of the mountain stages already), but they need Levi fresh and in position to make riders who want to try to go with Contador and Rasmussen pay for their sins.

One thing that hasn't been discussed is an attack by Kloden and/or Kashekin. At this point, I think Astana will be a little bit desperate for the win, and I think they will be the team that tries something on Wednesday.

I just think it's great that 2 of the top 3 in the road racers most elite race are ex mountain bike world champions. It just shows how the sport has changed in the last 10 years.

Now to my points, does anyone think Cadel has a chance. And how good were the Spanish riders today.

Only reason I'd like to see the chicken win is rabobank deserves a yellow jersey for sticking around for 11 years, right through the dark times in the late 90's. Plus Boogerd is a powerhouse at 35 and I would like him to retire with a TDF team win, (wanna bet he doesn't retire) I could care less about the chicken.

steppy

The peloton would never allow that to occur. Not only Rabobank, but a couple of the other teams would dig in to stop that from happening. I think the strategy of letting Contador crack riders, and having Levi close behind to make them pay for cracking is a sounder strategy.



If your goal is to finish 2nd and 3rd.

If Levi sits back, and maybe picks up some time on most riders, its solidifies his 4th place, and maybe gets him up to 3rd. But, it does nothing to improve Disco's chance of winning the TDF.

The only way Disco wins this year's TDF is if Contador cracks Rasmussen. By attacking, Levi can increase the pressure on Rasmussen.

One thing that hasn't been discussed is an attack by Kloden and/or Kashekin. At this point, I think Astana will be a little bit desperate for the win, and I think they will be the team that tries something on Wednesday.


Not that I doubt an Astana attack...but why do you think they would be "desperate" for a win? Vino has earned them 2 victories of the last 3 stages.

Not that I doubt an Astana attack...but why do you think they would be "desperate" for a win? Vino has earned them 2 victories of the last 3 stages.

Desperate for GC win - or at least a podium. As it stands now, neither looks all that promising.

Kloden has as good of a chance as Levi, they're only 9 seconds apart and Kloden can TT better. Vino is dangerous enough that he might go nuts on another stage and maybe bring Kloden with him. Of course Vino is dangerous enough that he might go nuts on a stage and not bring Kloden with him but end up bring someone else with him. I don't think Vino's the best strategist. Attack!!!!

pretty poor reason.

if it was about longevity then Lampre, Credit Agricole, Cofidis, T-Mobile, and Lotto are just as deserving.Rooting knows no logic.

didnt the yellow jersey crack bad on stage 16 last year? I expect it to happen again this year. I think the pressure on Ras is going to be too much and he will lose major time on Wednesday. Possible enough to knock him off the podem and polka dots by the time the TT is over with.

I think its very possible the podium ends up consisting of evans, kloeden and levi although I really would like to see climbers go one two. Seeing the leader and second place duke it out like that is awesome.

If Rassmusen gets isolated and the different teams throw down multiple attacks he may crack. Contador almost did it by himself today (stage 15) but he ran out of road.

anything is possible, although let's hope that doesn't happen.

i'd rather have a podium of dopers than a podium of wheel suckers.

i guess it didnt really come through on my orginal post but i would be seriously bummed if that ended up happening.

I think Vino will pull back 20 minutes when he ATTACKS Wednesday on the climbs. :) Oh wait, I forgot, he can't climb.

Watching Levi attack is like watching a water buffalo waking from a nap in a muddy bog.

I can see the Tour yanking Rassmussen before race ends over these missed piss tests, although he's a lot more fun to watch than Levi "pacing" himself. I think Contador will win when Rass is pulled from race.

Kloden has as good of a chance as Levi, they're only 9 seconds apart and Kloden can TT better. ...

You're correct. However, by leapfrogging Levi, Kloden would find himself in 4th position. That would make the podium in the Giro, but not the TDF.

Time to stop worrying about Levi is.......now.

Who's worrying? Just stating the facts. ma'am.

He showed a little. I really didn't think he would cover the last attack before the summit, but he dug deep. If you get a chance to see the replay the motorbikes ahead slowed Contador a little. Even if they were not there I think Chicken would have caught back up when the road leveled a little.

I have to wonder how many attacks does Contador have in him? That was serious work.

Richard

Ras said those motorbikes were helping draft AC

Those motorbikes might have save Ras's butt on the last of Contador's attacks on the climb.

I think Rasmussen's chances of winning the Tour just went up. Without having to worry about Astana, there are 3 less riders to attack and put pressure on Rasmussen.

The tactic of multiple attacks from multiple teams on stage 16 to try to crack Rasmussen just got harder to execute.

I think Rasmussen's chances of winning the Tour just went up. Without having to worry about Astana, there are 3 less riders to attack and put pressure on Rasmussen.

The tactic of multiple attacks from multiple teams on stage 16 to try to crack Rasmussen just got harder to execute.

Agreed...But Disco may be strong enough on their own to crack RABO and Ras.

If the Boogey man can ride like he did and Menchov can add anything to the soup, it probably isn't going to happen. Disco sent Popo off the front and Rabo didn't even respond, they didn't have to and Popo faded and they rode tempo right on. Only chance is to set Levi off the front and then they'll have to chase but then Levi could blow and have "0" chance at a shot to get by Evans.

Discovery can set a tempo that will reduce the group to 10 riders or so in short order. I doubt they send Levi off until the second to the last climb. I think their main prey tomorrow is Cadel Evans. I am sure they want to put a little time into Rasmussen. If they can crack Evans Disco gets 2 podium guys.

Richard


If the Boogey man can ride like he did and Menchov can add anything to the soup, it probably isn't going to happen. Disco sent Popo off the front and Rabo didn't even respond, they didn't have to and Popo faded and they rode tempo right on. Only chance is to set Levi off the front and then they'll have to chase but then Levi could blow and have "0" chance at a shot to get by Evans.