A few months ago this Living Car Free forum had some post about food prices, I think it was in terms of Easter Eggs. I didn't pay attention but now I haven't seen fresh vegetable prices do their normal summer drop. I was just in the grocery store and saw cabbage at 99 cents a pound when last summer it was at 39. The price of gas is the same as it was last summer so thats not it. All the vegetables seem to be at their winter prices or above. Is it just DC? It doesn't seem like it could be the ethanol thing since my favorite cuts of meat aren't up that much. If vegetable fields are being converted to corn fields, the cost of corn might not rise much but increase vegetable prices? I was going to try making big batches of my mother's vegetable stew this summer and freezing for winter use. I don't see the bargains on squash, tomatoes and eggplant.
Now that I think of it, if the government is subsidizing ethanol production won't that lower the price of Vodka? We car free transportational cyclists might have to switch carbs, substitute Vodka tonics for pasta? That doesn't appeal to me but we might have to sacrifice to save the planet right?
lyeinyoureye
08-17-07, 02:10 PM
I believe all corn based foods would increase in price as more goes toward ethanol. This is more or less the result of our protectionist policy towards big American bizznuss. If we were to drop tariffs, sure, we may be able to import ethanol from Brazil and/or other biofuels from other sources that are far cheaper, but it would kill the price of ethanol/other biofuels in our domestic market, and the price of certain foods to a lesser extent. Unlike moving factories overseas and outsourcing labor, we couldn't easily get our chunk of the pie from the foreign biofuels market since they are so easy to grow in some countries, and aren't patented. Sure (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d9345496-4a84-11dc-95b5-0000779fd2ac,_i_rssPage=ff3cbaf6-3024-11da-ba9f-00000e2511c8.html), we could encourage the production of cheaper foreign biofuels, which would benefit the consumer in this country, and the producers in other countries... But it wouldn't benefit you know who in this country, and they're the ones with the deep pockets and influential sk00t3r l0bbi3stz. :D
ModoVincere
08-17-07, 02:26 PM
A great deal of the price drop during a normal summer is due to farmland production in the Southeastern states. Well, this year has been a real crapper for farmers, especially here in Georgia. South GA produces a huge quantity of fruits and vegetables which are usually already in the ground and growing by end of March. We had a late hard freeze in mid April,IIRC, which knocked out 20+% of the states production. Since then, we have been in a "100 year" drought which has destroyed a great deal more produce. This drought has effected Northern FL, AL, GA, TN, and the Carolinas.
In addition to the SE drought, Texas has been inundated with tons of rain...which is just as bad as a drought for farm production.
So don't expect the normal drop in produce this year.
Nightshade
08-17-07, 02:27 PM
More here.........
http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=333405
squegeeboo
08-17-07, 02:31 PM
theres a few things to consider:
1. Large portions of the country experienced late freezes in the spring, screwing over most types of produce in those areas
2. As corn becomes more profitable due to ethanol you have 2 possible scenarios that relate to other produce costs
a) Farmers shift more of their arable land over to corn production, cutting down on total land for other products, leading to a jump in price
b) As more and more corn is bought by ethanol producers, other produce goes up in cost due to a higher demand for those crops as corn becomes harder to find and/or more expensive for the consumer
3) Just because fuel is not more costly in your area than last year, this does not mean that it is more costly in other areas, which could potentially effect the end price of products in your area depending on where they are transported from/thru
Also, I doubt Vodka will see a large drop in cost, at least in the near future, until ethanol production gets really ramped up.
I have noticed increases in the food I buy too and the pickings at the local farmers market have been on the slim side. They started out the season pretty decent but the drought in the SE is definitely starting to take it's toll. My garden is not doing well at all and I have had to water it, but a week or more of 100+ degree temperatures and no rain has taken it's toll. I know the field crops around here are suffering too.
Aaron:)
gerv
08-17-07, 08:19 PM
Yes I noticed tomatoes were up around $3 a pound. That's pretty crazy for this time of year, considering the number of people who grow tomatoes in their back yard and end up giving away scads of them. I have 4 plants that usually keep me going through September. By that time, I'm sick of lettuce and tomatoes. Look forward to Fall vegetables.
With the high prices, I'm hoping there will be more local produce available this Fall. The high prices might make it worthwhile for more locals to ease up on the corn crop and make some money on other produce.
mike
08-17-07, 09:18 PM
America has been very fortunate to have a large supply of low cost food up to now. That is rapidly changing.
With the globalized marketplace, Americans are increasingly competing against buyers from around the world for products produced right here in the USA.
Thus, you can understand that if a Japanese buyer says to a USA producer, "Hey, I will give you $0.15 per pound more for your product than the USA buyer - you know that the producer is going to sell to the highest bidder whether they are American or not. Ironically, perhaps one of the USA consumer's best friends are the import barriers that foreign countries use to keep USA food out of their markets, thus artificially supressing the demand/price for USA food products. As these trade barriers are relaxed, the demand/price for USA food products increases.
It only costs about $0.14 per pound to ship frozen product from the center of the USA food belt to Asia. So logistics costs, which used to be one of the biggest barriers to food exports is really not that much of a hurdle anymore. Imagine, for example, meat with a value of $7.00 per pound. The shipping cost is almost a non-issue. Remember, when you export a pound of meat, you export all the corn and soy and other resources that it took to produce that meat.
I am in the food industry and can say with confidence that food prices will, on average triple over the next six years. Many inescapable factors will drive the price up:
1) Global demand.
2) Use of oil seeds and corn for fuel.
3) Energy costs.
4) An economic shift in the USA that will create a larger lower-income group and an upward economic shift in poor countries also creating a greater demand for food.
#4 is an interesting phenominon. while we hear that the high-income group is growing in the USA, it is often not mentioned that the lower income groups are growing exponentially. More families are falling out of the middle class and into the low-income groups than are growing out of the middle class and into the higher income groups.
Lower income groups typically spend more of their disposable income on food than the higher income groups. That is, with upward fluctuations in disposable income the higher income groups spend money on tanjible goods like cars, boats, toys. When lower income groups see upward swings in their income, their first purchases are usually on better foods. The fascinating result is that with more people falling into the lower income groups, the demand for food and higher quality foods actually INCREASES rather than decreases; inflating food prices further. This price pressure, while interesting, is not nearly as important as the first three however, increased global demand, increased use of corn and oil seed for fuel, and cost of energy/fuel. Now, in some countries like China, for example, the population is in this low-income class, but their situation is improving, so as they move from very low-income to low-income, the first thing they spend their money on is - you guessed it, better and more food.
So, anyway, the important message for you to bring home is that food prices in the USA are going to skyrocket and outpace inflation in nearly every other catagory for at least the next decade. Fasten your seatbelts.
bike2math
08-17-07, 09:34 PM
I think it is still largely enviromental factors contributing to produce price swings: as mentioned a late freeze (actually two late freezes for much of the country); a dwindling supply of honey bees (which I think is temporary; as historically there are large bee die offs every few decades); a moderate to severe drought for large portions of the country; too much rain in other (and in some cases the same) portions of the country.
Of course I've been growing my own summer vegetables for many years now and the cost is still basically what it was ten years ago. I guess if I had to name something the cost of manure has gone up slightly, but mainly becuase I can no longer find it raw as easily as I once could; which I blame on professional farmers going organic. This year my corn suffered from a moderate drought and is only producing half the normal crop.
The thing that amazes me: for less than a dollar I can buy enough beans to plant a six foot double wide row of green beans. The plants produce from the middle of July until the end of September and for that time produce a gallon of beans a week. The things are just food making miracle machines; and I don't know why everyone doesn't have a little six foot row of them.
Nightshade
08-18-07, 10:39 AM
For those who will want to garden.........
One point that isn't well known is that the seed producers have been,
and still are, genetically modifying all seed so that they will not
produce carry over seeds for the next season.
While this may produce more profit for the seed company it's the
dumbest thing man can do if it gets into the main stream of plant
genetics. Humans will starve by the billions for a few paper dollars
in extra "profit".:mad:
wahoonc
08-18-07, 11:34 AM
For those who will want to garden.........
One point that isn't well known is that the seed producers have been,
and still are, genetically modifying all seed so that they will not
produce carry over seeds for the next season.
While this may produce more profit for the seed company it's the
dumbest thing man can do if it gets into the main stream of plant
genetics. Humans will starve by the billions for a few paper dollars
in extra "profit".:mad:
Well aware of it:( I have a SIL that is in the nursery/arboretum business...she has been getting me heritage seeds and trees to plant. The only stipulation is that I share the seeds. This year has been bad for the crops in our area, due to the late freeze and now a drought. I was supposed to get about a dozen heritage pecans to plant, but we have held off due to the amount of water a newly planted tree needs. I don't like what they do with the genetics of seed, they are setting us up for a world wide problem.
Aaron:)
gwd
08-18-07, 02:34 PM
Food converted to fuel for rich peoples gas guzzlers, dead honey bees (I forgot about the bees), freezes, droughts and floods at the same time, lactose intolerant Asians buying our milk products, food inflation masked by consumer toys made by those lactose intolerant Asians. It reads like science fiction. Those of us who don't buy a lot of crap at the mall see the food price increase and can't believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics is being honest about the inflation rate. I really missed this whole story. But there are still things that don't add up. We're being told repeatedly that increased international trade means that bad weather or dead bees or what not in one country won't have such a bad effect because we can buy food from countries with good weather and rambunctious bees. Isn't NAFTA and the other trade agreements supposed to come to our rescue and keep food prices down? In the McClatchy article that someone posted I noticed that the price of oranges is way up, but if I recall correctly it is havest time in Brazil and Brazil is a low cost producer of Oranges. Maybe Brazil has converted its orange groves to ethanol production too?
Years ago there was this science fiction film where people in the US had really expensive food and poor poeple were eating these protein wafers or something. In the end it turned out that everyone's favorite flavor of protein wafer was made from human corpses. For some reason reading everyone's posts reminded me of that silly movie.
rockmom
08-18-07, 03:44 PM
My family hasn't been hit much by price increases. Orange juice and dairy have gone up. But our produce expenses have gone down. Overall our food bill is down from last winter. It's a little hard to compare summer to summer since the kids tend to eat more as they get older.
oldfool
08-19-07, 05:53 AM
Years ago there was this science fiction film where people in the US had really expensive food and poor poeple were eating these protein wafers or something. In the end it turned out that everyone's favorite flavor of protein wafer was made from human corpses. For some reason reading everyone's posts reminded me of that silly movie.
The movie was "Soylent Green" with Charleston Heston and Edward G Robinson. I really hated that movie but I'll never forget it.
gerv
08-19-07, 10:46 AM
For those who will want to garden.........
One point that isn't well known is that the seed producers have been,
and still are, genetically modifying all seed so that they will not
produce carry over seeds for the next season.
While this may produce more profit for the seed company it's the
dumbest thing man can do if it gets into the main stream of plant
genetics. Humans will starve by the billions for a few paper dollars
in extra "profit".:mad:
I thought this applied only to hybrid seeds, where it is recommended that you not save seeds from your crops because subsequent generations tend to be weaker.
Are you saying that all seed produced by seed companies cannot be left unplanted for more than 1 season? My Square Foot Gardening book tells me I should be able to keep seeds for up to 5 years (in the refrigerator).
Nightshade
08-19-07, 01:21 PM
I thought this applied only to hybrid seeds, where it is recommended that you not save seeds from your crops because subsequent generations tend to be weaker.
Are you saying that all seed produced by seed companies cannot be left unplanted for more than 1 season? My Square Foot Gardening book tells me I should be able to keep seeds for up to 5 years (in the refrigerator).
All of the corporate seed companies now produce no carry over seeds. There is a place in
Scandinavia now collecting seed for that time when other seed will not reproduce.
Most gardening books still have old non-current info about seed carry over due to the fact
that no seed company advertizes the genetic modifactions. One only has to do a brief study
of the food industies consolidation into the Big 3 of food to get a cold chill about the worlds
food systems & future. The old "family" farm is ,or has been, killed off in many places or
many ways for those that are left.
mike
08-19-07, 01:38 PM
My family hasn't been hit much by price increases. Orange juice and dairy have gone up. But our produce expenses have gone down. Overall our food bill is down from last winter. It's a little hard to compare summer to summer since the kids tend to eat more as they get older.
Wow, Rockmom. Your food bill has gone DOWN in Wisconsin since last year?
Better keep that a secret, or the folks from Minnesota and Illinois are going to be flowing over the state lines for their shopping.
Are you serious? Prices are going DOWN where you are?
bike2math
08-19-07, 01:53 PM
All of the corporate seed companies now produce no carry over seeds. There is a place in
Scandinavia now collecting seed for that time when other seed will not reproduce.
Most gardening books still have old non-current info about seed carry over due to the fact
that no seed company advertizes the genetic modifactions. One only has to do a brief study
of the food industies consolidation into the Big 3 of food to get a cold chill about the worlds
food systems & future. The old "family" farm is ,or has been, killed off in many places or
many ways for those that are left.
Do you have a reference to this? I typically throw much of my garden waste into the compost pile and the following year I always have a handful of volunteers show up; I've noticed it with beans, tomatoes, potatoes, spinach and peas. I thought the problem was just that seed from F1 hybrids wasn't the same quality of what you planted (a problem which has been around since before we understood what an F1 hybrid was).
FXjohn
08-19-07, 01:58 PM
Do you have a reference to this? I typically throw much of my garden waste into the compost pile and the following year I always have a handful of volunteers show up; I've noticed it with beans, tomatoes, potatoes, spinach and peas. I thought the problem was just that seed from F1 hybrids wasn't the same quality of what you planted (a problem which has been around since before we understood what an F1 hybrid was).
Donlt buy into the shrill paranoia. The genetic crops which either don't produce seed or are copyrighted are the kind of huge field crops like corn. Your garden vegetables aren't like that.
okpik
08-19-07, 03:02 PM
some of the GMO's are created so they won't produce viable seed, while some others must be used in conjunction with specific herbicides/pesticides to grow, meaning once you start using their seed its a package deal your stuck with
and if you run a farm of any size, companies like monsanto find GMO contamination in your crop(which you cannot control) your crop can be seized, court case has already established this
Roody
08-20-07, 12:22 PM
So does anybody have solutions?
My plan is to buy as much locally produced food as possible, and ride my bike to get it. As local growers proliferate, their prices will go down. Already, i'm noticing less of a price gap between high-quality local produce and (especially) meat, compared to the low-quality crap the supermarket ships in from California, Mexico, Chile, etc.
If they made GMO coffee beans that grow in the Grand valley of Michigan, would I buy it? I really don't know.....
Nightshade
08-20-07, 01:02 PM
Do you have a reference to this? I typically throw much of my garden waste into the compost pile and the following year I always have a handful of volunteers show up; I've noticed it with beans, tomatoes, potatoes, spinach and peas. I thought the problem was just that seed from F1 hybrids wasn't the same quality of what you planted (a problem which has been around since before we understood what an F1 hybrid was).
Not every single plant now is genetic but all are under development. I don't have a reference
ready to spoon feed the crowd here but I figure that the really curious will look it up.
Bikepacker67
08-20-07, 01:22 PM
I don't have a reference ready to spoon feed the crowd here but I figure that the really curious will look it up.
The problem is, it's the incurious that sways the agenda.
Roody
08-20-07, 02:05 PM
Donlt buy into the shrill paranoia. The genetic crops which either don't produce seed or are copyrighted are the kind of huge field crops like corn. Your garden vegetables aren't like that.
You're right, but of course many food crops are hybrids that don't usually produce viable offspring. So you're wrong too.
gerv
08-20-07, 06:48 PM
All of the corporate seed companies now produce no carry over seeds. There is a place in
Scandinavia now collecting seed for that time when other seed will not reproduce.
Most gardening books still have old non-current info about seed carry over due to the fact
that no seed company advertizes the genetic modifactions. One only has to do a brief study
of the food industies consolidation into the Big 3 of food to get a cold chill about the worlds
food systems & future. The old "family" farm is ,or has been, killed off in many places or
many ways for those that are left.
I wasn't aware of this fact. I do see a number of smaller organizations however who talk about the practice of "seed saving" which is the technique whereby a gardener will save his best plants for next year's crops. This is supposed to be a great way to increase the variety and strength of seed stock, rather than using seed from a very few resources. Downside: a lot of work.
http://www.seedsave.org/
I also found a number of resources out of state agriculture schools who provide a lot of details on this subject. For example, http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/garden/07602.html
As well, there are a number of smaller shops that sell organic seed, which do not seem genetically or otherwise modified. Organica caught my attention http://www.organicaseed.com/?gclid=COqS06WxhY4CFREDWAod2lGaEQ
From what I read, these aren't hyrid or "F1" seeds either.
THE SAFE SEED PLEDGE
Agriculture and seeds provide the basis upon which our lives depend. We must protect this foundation as a safe and genetically stable source for future generations. For the benefit of all farmers, gardeners and consumers who want an alternative:
"We pledge that we do not knowingly buy or sell genetically engineered seeds or plants."
The mechanical transfer of genetic material outside of natural reproductive methods and between genera, families or kingdoms, poses great biological risks as well as economic, political, and cultural threats. We feel that genetically engineered varieties have been insufficiently tested prior to public release. More research and testing is necessary to further assess the potential risks of genetically engineered seeds. Further, we wish to support agricultural progress that leads to healthier soils, genetically diverse agricultural ecosystems and ultimately people and communities.
wahoonc
08-20-07, 06:58 PM
Saw yet another thing today that is bound to affect food prices eventually. I was driving on a road that I normally don't travel. What used to be a 100+ acre farm is now paved over and has become a Walmart Supercenter and associated strip mall:mad: So there is another 100 acres out of production. I have purchased vegetables from that farm in the past, when I lived up that way.:( According to the news the big county just north of me is losing an acre and hour (think about it now) to development...that adds up to a lot of lost crop land.
Aaron:)
AStomper
08-20-07, 10:42 PM
Big ethanol supporter, but just now started thinking about how it might raise food prices so much that the world won't produce enough food to keep everyone fed anymore.
On ethanol from Brazil, its made with slave labor and if the tariffs are dropped then we need an army of inspectors to check each and every farm, plus a tax that would buy rain forest so it wouldn't get turned into plantations to make ethanol.http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?q=slave+brazil+sugar+cane&x=0&y=0&scope=all&edition=i&tab=all&recipe=all
wahoonc
08-21-07, 03:49 AM
Big ethanol supporter, but just now started thinking about how it might raise food prices so much that the world won't produce enough food to keep everyone fed anymore.
On ethanol from Brazil, its made with slave labor and if the tariffs are dropped then we need an army of inspectors to check each and every farm, plus a tax that would buy rain forest so it wouldn't get turned into plantations to make ethanol.http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?q=slave+brazil+sugar+cane&x=0&y=0&scope=all&edition=i&tab=all&recipe=all
Then get them to make it out of something besides corn...what a boondoggle, another case of big business dictating government policy to line it's own pockets on the backs of the American taxpayers.
Aaron:)
linux_author
08-21-07, 04:20 AM
Yes I noticed tomatoes were up around $3 a pound.
- crazy, isn't it? that's way too much!
- i bike to a local weekly grocery market and usually get mine for around $0.25 a pound, along with a quart of big, fat jalapenos for $1, and nice white corn for $0.20 or less an ear...
- i don't recommend buying vegetables in commercial supermarkets for several reasons, such as: overpriced (too much of a markup); not fresh (due to improper transport and storage); imported (support local small growers!); many times product is mealy, tasteless, and industrial-farmed...
- we have cut back quite a bit on paper products and other consumables in our household: investing in a good supply of kitchen towels eliminates need for paper towels; the tile floors are cleaned using white vinegar and water; any plastic tubs are reused until too stained, then are recycled unless used for insect-free storage; more cooking at home, such as making batches of spaghetti sauce from scratch (will *never* go back to commercial jars - ugh!), buy all rice and cereal in 10 lb.+ bags, and so on...
- a little effort and creativity can help save the household some money...
Nightshade
08-21-07, 10:09 AM
Then get them to make it out of something besides corn...what a boondoggle, another case of big business dictating government policy to line it's own pockets on the backs of the American taxpayers.
Aaron:)
Lot's of truth here, it is. Corn is a cash crop where biomass isn't. Biomass is any green plant
that can be converted to sugars to ferment into alcohol. That said until biomass becomes more
profitable corn will be America's source of ethonol. Really stupid huh?