Living Car Free - planet in peril...really?

That's a non-sequitur. If other planets are warming as well (and we have no numbers to support this assertion....

Actually, we do. And direct measurement from satellites. And direct measurement from probes and observation platforms in various points throughout the solar system. And direct measurement from ground based observations. And direct verification from surface probe missions. Direct, detailed measurements of surface temperatures, albedos, and climatological responses to solar radiation; as well as direct observation of the sun itself. Way, way, way more data than any one person could possibly process a tenth of in a lifetime of dedicated effort. And all of the immense amounts of diverse, independently verifiable data points in one direction. That's why even the nuttiest agw nutters haven't waved this one around for years. It's too embarrassing! Old news.

IMO, humans are far more adaptable than any other species.

In a manner of speaking, yes. We tend to adapt the environment rather than ourselves though. If we don't have access to materials and fuel with which to do the adapting... Some will do well, other groups, some of them quite large, may find it difficult.

Two things I see that I think may be making people slow to change:

1. There is no consensus in the scientific community that the global warming is man made and that we can change it. The earth has warmed but it has done so in the past. If not, we would never have learned about the Ice Age in school. What made it change then and can we stop the change now?

2. The "Leaders" of the climate change evangelist have done nothing to change their lifestyle to lessen the impact they are telling other people about. It is one thing to tell everyone to change and then go home to your mansion on a private jet and another to make some serious changes in your life to match what you claim to believe. I think people listen but are not moved to change because they feel the person giving the message is insincere.



OK- I don't really know where any of this came from. Did you read the IPCC report on climate change? That recieved an unprecented level of support from the worldwide scienticif community- Not just some fringe lab techs. The report stated that it is "very Likely (90%+ probability) that climate change is in effect and human caused. I think that is worth paying attention to.

As for point #2, how much do you think scientists make? I've never met a researcher, professor, lab tech, climatologist, feild biologist, geologist, or any other kind of relevent scientist that made over $45,000 dollars a year. I don't think they live in mansions. The scientists who have been making the most money on global warming research are the ones funded by Exxon and other oil companies. Biased, maybe? Yes, Al gore lives in a mansion. People like him make up about .001% of global warming activists. And he is spreading awareness that I think makes up for the fact that he flies around in a jet to make speeches. He also offsets his carbon emissions like crazy.

It is true that if people care about global warming- especially if they are going to preach about it- they need to lead by example. I think bikers are a great example. It's not hard to get a kid carrier to take on grocery runs, and if cities planned bike paths a lot better it would make it so easy for people to commute. City buses with bike racks on the front are also a great motivator to go car free. As bikers we need to make sure we are good examples to the cities we live in, to encourage cyclists. Be polite to cars and pedestrians, have lights on your bike, and for god's sake, stop being so d*** elitist. It only deters people from joining our ranks. Most cities have great bike commmunities that are very encouraging to newbies, and I think we need to make sure we carry that on.

IMO, humans are far more adaptable than any other species.

typical anthropocentric world-view ~ !

we've only been around for a few millions years

what about Bunya Tree's (Auracaria bidwilli) they've been around since the dinosurs ?

what about Fungi ?

not to mention frogs ..

and Crocodiles ... they've been kicking for many millions of years ..

our lifestyles are so dependent on resources that are fast running out ... our adaptability is soon to be tested

I might also mention the microbes

they make up 60% of the earths biota and by far the majority of species diversity

we (the higher lifeforms) rely on these organisms for so too many ecological functions to list here

yet, they don't really need us to keep on "Adapting"

we need them

we need the rest of nature to survive ...

this is the big lesson for huminity

we really are one with nature and the harm we inflict upon our eco-systems ... is harm we inflict up on ourselves

Al Gore speaks in Davos. He says that North Pole ice caps could disappear within five years! :eek:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/wef/article3245120.ece

Question: Is this an example of a hysterical claim?

Question: Will any here take a wager on this claim? I will will wager that between now and January 2012 there will always be an ice cap at the North Pole. Any takers?

Question: Doesn't it seem that the claims of the AGW folks get ever more wild, extreme and shrill? Why is that?

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-122warmwaters,0,5683000.story
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20080124-0143-hurricanes-warming.html

Good news! AGW may be beneficial to mankind! Fewer hurricanes! (Does news like this make you mad? Perhaps you should ask yourself why. Just saying.)


"The study by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Miami Lab and the University of Miami postulated that global warming may actually decrease the number of hurricanes that strike the United States. Warming waters may increase vertical wind speed, or wind shear, cutting into a hurricane's strength.

The study focused on observations rather than computer models, which often form the backbone of global warming studies, and on the records of hurricanes over the past century, researchers said.

“I think it was a seminal paper,” Richard Spinrad, NOAA's assistant administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, said Wednesday.

“There's a lot of uncertainty in the models,” Spinrad said. “There's a lot of uncertainty in what drives the development of tropical cyclones, or hurricanes. What the study says to us is that we need a higher resolution” of data."

If you advocate measures to counter AGW, you are promoting higher hurricane frequency. Is that being responsible to your fellow man?


"While Holland sees a connection between global warming and increased hurricanes, Landsea believes storms only seem to be getting bigger because people are paying closer attention. Small storms that would have gone unnoticed in past decades are now carefully tracked by satellites and airplanes, even if they pose no threat to land."

Also, the 24/7 cable weather shows are creating a "big storm" bias that is inflating the number of named storms. Meteorologists find the extremes more interesting, naturally, therefore they have a bias toward them. They will be inclined to believe the extreme ends of probabilities rather than the more moderate ones due to this bias. It is evidenced in the forecasting. During hot spells, the high temperatures rarely meet the predicted high. During cold saps, the same can be observed. Snowfall and rainfall are nearly always less than predicted.

And of coarse, having zero hurricanes hit America in 2007 instead of the predicted "6-12" is a case in point.

Al Gore speaks in Davos. He says that North Pole ice caps could disappear within five years! :eek:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/wef/article3245120.ece

Question: Is this an example of a hysterical claim?

Question: Will any here take a wager on this claim? I will will wager that between now and January 2012 there will always be an ice cap at the North Pole. Any takers?

Question: Doesn't it seem that the claims of the AGW folks get ever more wild, extreme and shrill? Why is that?
You are being ridiculous again.

If you look at a map of the SUMMER-TIME ice cap in 1979 and one from last year, you would probably observe that the current summer ice map looks like about half what it was in 1979.

Many climatologists predict that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer starting some time between 2015 and 2030. Well before it happens the North will undergo extreme social and economic changes. One simple observation is that houses built on permafrost will sink into the summer mud.

Right at the moment, it is possible in summer to traverse the Atlantic to Pacific ocean... something that hasn't happened since Europeans have been coming to North America.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/09/070917-northwest-passage.html


The famed Northwest Passage—a direct shipping route from Europe to Asia across the Arctic Ocean—is ice free for the first time since satellite records began in 1978, scientists reported Friday.

The passage is a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Canadian Arctic. It would save valuable time and fuel for ships that now travel through the Suez Canal in Egypt or the Panama Canal in Central America.



Climate models had projected the passage would eventually open as warming temperatures melted the Arctic sea ice—but no one had predicted it would happen this soon.

"We're probably 30 years ahead of schedule in terms of the loss of the Arctic sea ice," said Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.

"We're on this fast track of change."

That rapid melting is ratcheting up international competition for control over the newly accessible shipping lanes and exposed natural resources.

Canada, for example, claims it has full rights over the parts of the passage that pass its territory. The U.S. and European Union say the passage is in international waters.

Meanwhile Russia laid claim to the sea floor at the North Pole this August, planting a flag there in the hopes of securing the Arctic's potential bonanza of oil and minerals.

You are being ridiculous again.

If you look at a map of the SUMMER-TIME ice cap in 1979 and one from last year, you would probably observe that the current summer ice map looks like about half what it was in 1979.

Many climatologists predict that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer starting some time between 2015 and 2030. Well before it happens the North will undergo extreme social and economic changes. One simple observation is that houses built on permafrost will sink into the summer mud.


So do you want to bet it will be realized before January 2012?

If I am being ridiculous, it should be easy money! :p

[FONT="Georgia"][SIZE="2"][COLOR="Blue"]So do you want to bet it will be realized before January 2012?

If I am being ridiculous, it should be easy money! :p

I'll take your bet. If summer ice clears by September of 2012, you have to quit using the color and font functions. Deal?

I am seeing some serious wackiness in my local climate, and have for a number of years; it's getting more and more surreal. We've been having brown or even green christmases here in Alaska some years. The mix of plants is going crazy in places and i'm having a hell of a time tracking it all. There are insect pests attacking crops here that simply should not exist here. Permafrost is melting and doing some serious reshaping of land in a few places. There are wolves ranging into the city because the usual food sources have gone strange and scarce.

But what would you know, you're in Dallas and you think plants only grow in pots. All the climate change doubters seem to live in places where they wouldn't know a climate shift if it sat on their head singing 'I'm a climate change, boop, boop, giddyap, haw, haw!' and whacked them with a riding crop. It's easy to say that there isn't any such thing as climate change from inside of an air conditioned room in the middle of a city.

Permafrost is melting and doing some serious reshaping of land in a few places.


Melting permafrost is one of the "tipping points" that scientists are concerned about. Apparently there are large deposits of methane (a greenhouse gas) trapped in permafrost, especially in Siberia. If the permafrost melts, it's possible that the methane will be released to the atmosphere, increasing the rate of warming.

Tipping points are one of the most controversial aspects of GW theory. Since they have never been observed by people, their existence is conjectural. However, scientists are concerned enough to monitor them closely.

So do you want to bet it will be realized before January 2012?

If I am being ridiculous, it should be easy money! :p

Join the pool! (http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2008/01/sea_ice_betting_summary.php) It takes a real man to bet against experts specialized in the subject of the wager! But, keep in mind, you'll be betting against people with a decade or more of specialized training who study this stuff for a living. They all seem to be taking the other side...

This isn't the only betting pool. Just search around a bit, and you'll find more.

Join the pool! (http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2008/01/sea_ice_betting_summary.php) It takes a real man to bet against experts specialized in the subject of the wager! But, keep in mind, you'll be betting against people with a decade or more of specialized training who study this stuff for a living. They all seem to be taking the other side...

This isn't the only betting pool. Just search around a bit, and you'll find more.
I suspect it could happen in 2012 (although I personally doubt it...) or 2020. Or 2030. Whenever it happens, those who live in or near the Arctic will have already suffered tremendous loss. I think that may be the issue and I personally don't think it is a subject suitable for betting. It's just too depressing.

This year is the 40 year anniversary of Paul Ehrlich's book Population Bomb! Has even one of his predictions come true? Has even one of his proposed policy changes been implimented?

http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/isnt-all-this-talk-of-an-apocalypse-getting-a-bit-boring/2008/01/26/1201157736917.html?page=fullpage

This year is the 40 year anniversary of Paul Ehrlich's book Population Bomb! Has even one of his predictions come true? Has even one of his proposed policy changes been implimented?

http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/isnt-all-this-talk-of-an-apocalypse-getting-a-bit-boring/2008/01/26/1201157736917.html?page=fullpage

Wow, an opinion column from a member of a right wing thinktank about a completely unrelated issue. You really hit 'em out of the ballpark every time you post, don't you?

Ehrlich may have been barking up the wrong tree, sure. But even Bjorn Lomborg, demonized as one of the biggest environmental sell-outs/corporate doogooders/whatever else in the world, is a full believer in the reality of global climate change, as per "The Skeptical Environmentalist".

Yep. Plus, it actually agrees with the AGW people; the article notes that humans have been remarkably adept at solving problems. Well, AGW is a problem. It IS entirely solvable, when it is seen as a problem. The opinion piece didn't seem to actually DENY that AGW was happening. It said exactly what I have been saying; "We have a problem, get your collective heads out of your seats and start fixing instead of waiting for some miraculous government body to wave it's bureaucratic wand and make it all better for you'".

Got any links to share?
This (http://www.sissyfight.com/) should be about your speed.

I wanna know why the govt taxes us crazy (and more to come, I'm in UK) for an issue that they do not care about (NO THEY DONT, they only started caring when they realized they can generate more $$$ from taxpayer).

They tax us low enough that we'll pay the tax, but high enough that it'll get them some serious £££ from us.

They dont want us to give up the motorcar, coz so much revenue is generated from this type of transport.

I'm locking the door TEMPORARILY. This will allow everyone to take a breath and cool off a bit. That way maybe we won't have to wind up moving this thread to P&R.