Living Car Free - $100 a barrel oil by next week? comments?

Looks like the gas prices are now being reflected in the high prices of oil. Outside of demand going down due to it's being unaffordable for trips to the local mall and the 'Quickie Mart' it is really begining to look like the 1970's, early '80's all over again except the price won't drop since that was caused by an 'embargo' and not the supply & demand problems of today.

Any comments? I've noticed on CNBC they're starting to 'freak out' already..

With slow to moderate fuel price increases, motorists just grumble but nothing really changes. When prices escalate rapidly or when fuel becomes less readily available, there are all sorts of methods of coping.

In the 1970s, the fuel price jumps and shortages led to the popularity of compact and subcompact cars which remained popular for a good 10 to 15 years. During World War II when fuel rationing was in place, there were some simple and small home-built vehicles which got phenomenal fuel economy. Fuel price hikes in the last few years have prompted some motorists to go with Smart cars, hybrids or other ultra-efficient vehicles and, if prices continue to rise, so will the popularity of such vehicles.

http://media.cnbc.com/j/CNBC/Sections/CNBC_TV/CNBC_Asia/Columns/CommodityStore/071102_Oil5Years.standard.jpg

Prices increases are one thing; shortages leading to NO GAS are another.

A fuel-efficient car with an empty tank is just as dead as an H2 with an empty tank.



In the 1970s, the fuel price jumps and shortages led to the popularity of compact and subcompact cars which remained popular for a good 10 to 15 years. During World War II when fuel rationing was in place, there were some simple and small home-built vehicles which got phenomenal fuel economy. Fuel price hikes in the last few years have prompted some motorists to go with Smart cars, hybrids or other ultra-efficient vehicles and, if prices continue to rise, so will the popularity of such vehicles.

Well said K5fnd.

I've kept personal gas price logs over the last year.

Here are some numbers to think about.

Between January 29th and April 2nd, noticed fuel prices increased 55cents per gallon. ($1.95-$2.49)
Between April 2nd and October 5th, noticed fuel prices peaked at a 50 cent increase but averaged and closed out the year with an 11cent increase. ($2.49-$2.99, avg=$2.60)

Between October 5th and November 7th, prices increased steadily from $2.55-$2.65-$2.75. Yesterday was the yearly high at $3.09

Note: These numbers are only a personal sample of noticed gas prices.

With slow to moderate fuel price increases, motorists just grumble but nothing really changes. When prices escalate rapidly or when fuel becomes less readily available, there are all sorts of methods of coping.

In the 1970s, the fuel price jumps and shortages led to the popularity of compact and subcompact cars which remained popular for a good 10 to 15 years. During World War II when fuel rationing was in place, there were some simple and small home-built vehicles which got phenomenal fuel economy. Fuel price hikes in the last few years have prompted some motorists to go with Smart cars, hybrids or other ultra-efficient vehicles and, if prices continue to rise, so will the popularity of such vehicles.

I wonder, in each of those cases, how many people were promted to switch over to the bicycle.

I wonder, in each of those cases, how many people were promted to switch over to the bicycle.

Where I lived during the gas shortage in the 1970s, people pulled their ten speeds out and used them. It was noticeable for a short time. Then they stopped biking and returned to their cars.

Where I lived during the gas shortage in the 1970s, people pulled their ten speeds out and used them. It was noticeable for a short time. Then they stopped biking and returned to their cars.

I was in L.A. during that time. Not a single person that I knew of switched to using a bike because of unavailability of gas. They all preferred to line up in mile-long gas lines. :( Some people did trade in their LTD for a Pinto though.

When gas prices go up, retail sales seem to go down. The report today was "sluggish" retail sales for October.

Has anyone else noticed that stores and malls have started the Christmas season early this year? Catalogs were in the mail the week of Halloween, xmas decorations are up in stores. I wonder if the big retailers think gas prices will continue to climb through the holiday season. If gas hit 4 dollars a gallon the weekend before xmas, that would be trouble.

Out of everyone I know who drives, nobody is changing their driving habits or thinking about getting a new car.

My mother finally told me, after 2 years of my talking about it, that she is thinking about trading in her Tahoe for something more fuel efficient. Finally.

There are already a few threads about oil, so i didn't want to start a new one. I would like to show an extra cost of the oil industry.

http://www.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2007/11/09/ba_oil_spill_0271_kr.jpg

A cargo ship hit the bay bridge and spilled oil into the bay :(
Story here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/08/BAD8T8PLU.DTL


How do we measure the cost of environmental damage such as this?

Yes but it is only 50 pounds a barrel and what 69 Euros.

It is our dollar, the same one which is in debt for 9 trillion dollars.
That is the real freak out.

58,000 gallons wow, =(

My mother finally told me, after 2 years of my talking about it, that she is thinking about trading in her Tahoe for something more fuel efficient. Finally.


In many cases, unless you just care about conserving gas (and that is a ok reason), the extra cost of a hybrid or replacing a current vehicle with a more fuel efficient vehicle ends up costing more $.

If I did not work 30 miles from work with virtually no reasonalbly safe method to get here via bike, I would be biking to work for the exersize and gas savings.

In many cases, unless you just care about conserving gas (and that is a ok reason), the extra cost of a hybrid or replacing a current vehicle with a more fuel efficient vehicle ends up costing more $.


Yeah.
I didn't want to fill up the post with information but she was looking at replacing it with a used car and actually making a profit in the process. In the long run, from the purchase point forward, her environmental impact would significantly decrease.

If I did not work 30 miles from work with virtually no reasonalbly safe method to get here via bike, I would be biking to work for the exersize and gas savings.


Could you carpool to a closer/safer location?

Yeah.
I didn't want to fill up the post with information but she was looking at replacing it with a used car and actually making a profit in the process. In the long run, from the purchase point forward, her environmental impact would significantly decrease.

Good for her. I just get really frustrated with all the media buzz and selling tactics that lead people to believe they will be saving money when buying a hybrid or sell a perfectly good car that gets 20mpg to buy one that gets 30mpg and use that as a major motivation. The need to do the numbers. Most of the time, they don't add up to what most people think they do. I hope it happens one day but not now.

I did read today that GM's mid size car (Malibu) will be available as a hybrid and it will "only" cost $1300 more than the standard. That would still take longer than most people keep their cars to recoup the extra cost and that is just for initial cost. I don't think many think about battery replacement and other repair issues that may arise and be more expensive once the warranty runs out.

People often forget about the effects of oil shipment. The Exxon valdez was carrying a 7 day supply of oil.


http://www.conservationgiscenter.org/maps/images/spill.jpg

Could you carpool to a closer/safer location?

That is a good question. I have not pondered car pooling along with riding. I have investigated doing a partial ride with going on the bus but my office is in a suburb and I live in a suburb on the other side of town. The bus system just does not work out for me. I could get here but it would be an hour on the bus and probably an hour on the bike. That would not be any fun. Likely I would have the same issues with carpooling and biking. There is no decent route to my office except for the interstate and I just can't see myself riding on the interstate.

I have pondered car pooling with a coworker but he is a very late riser. I am normally at the office by 7:30 to 8 and leave at 5-5:30. He is here by 9am and leaves at 6:30. That schedule just won't work for me and mine won't work for him. We have discussed doing it a few times a week but?

when cheap easy to obtain fuel passes $100/barrel: more environmentally destructive sources like tar-sands, oil shale, arctic exploration and coal gasification become more popular.

I did read today that GM's mid size car (Malibu) will be available as a hybrid and it will "only" cost $1300 more than the standard. That would still take longer than most people keep their cars to recoup the extra cost and that is just for initial cost. I don't think many think about battery replacement and other repair issues that may arise and be more expensive once the warranty runs out.

The Malibu is one of those phony Hybrids (basically it just cuts the engine at stoplights and uses an electric motor to start the car going again).

If you are going to spend the money on a Hybrid, get a real one. The Prius is probably still the best choice for saving gas.

I did read today that GM's mid size car (Malibu) will be available as a hybrid and it will "only" cost $1300 more than the standard. That would still take longer than most people keep their cars to recoup the extra cost and that is just for initial cost. I don't think many think about battery replacement and other repair issues that may arise and be more expensive once the warranty runs out.

It's all talk and publicity but GM has so far not delivered. They killed the electric vehicle which would have made a serious impact on the auto industry. Do you see the relationship of the two industries, oil companies reaped record profits while the domestic auto industry suffer from record lossess.

It's all talk and publicity but GM has so far not delivered. They killed the electric vehicle which would have made a serious impact on the auto industry. Do you see the relationship of the two industries, oil companies reaped record profits while the domestic auto industry suffer from record lossess.

Nothing new...they have been in bed together since the 30's if not earlier.

Aaron:)

I wonder, in each of those cases, how many people were promted to switch over to the bicycle.

The truth is that, unless there is a complete socio-economic collapse, and the Western world is reduced to Third World status, the bicycle will NEVER be the preferred mode of transportation. The reason is simple:

Cycling is not easy.

Bicycling is not physically easy, because it is exercise, and the rider is exposed to the elements. It's not psychologicallly easy because the car is a status symbol. A nice vehicle is a 2 ton monument that says you are a financial and social success. With all the reasons to bicycle commute, people cling to their driving habit. No matter that they have to work so much more to pay for the car. Not having one is simply too emotionally stressful.

It makes me happy to see anyone on a bike. The more, the better, but it's not the environmental or economic solution for the masses, and I don't know what is.

I agree that only a few people will give up the car unless we do have total economic collapse or fuel becomes totally unavailable. What I think you will see are people cutting out longer trips so they can drive the few miles to work. Some people will ditch the car in favor of motor cycles/scooters/mopeds, others may car pool, more will use mass transit if it becomes available, but the only the smallest percentage will switch to bikes.

Aaron:)

If I did not work 30 miles from work with virtually no reasonalbly safe method to get here via bike, I would be biking to work for the exersize and gas savings.

I was in the same situation as you, and I just kept searching until I finally got a job 3 miles from home. It was the best move I ever made, no question.

my office is in a suburb and I live in a suburb on the other side of town.

Why not move to the suburb where your office is? :D

Looks like the gas prices are now being reflected in the high prices of oil. Outside of demand going down due to it's being unaffordable for trips to the local mall and the 'Quickie Mart' it is really begining to look like the 1970's, early '80's all over again except the price won't drop since that was caused by an 'embargo' and not the supply & demand problems of today.

Any comments? I've noticed on CNBC they're starting to 'freak out' already..

Ummm, it's the other way around. High oil prices are reflected in higher gas prices; not vice versa.

Right now I'm thinking actual oil/gas shortages won't occur in the near future. It's looking to me like the economy will cool down enough to significantly reduce the demand for oil. The price of gas could go down next year, but fewer people might be needing to buy it.

When a family is affected by a recession, their first reaction in the past has been to try to cut back on grocery expenses. If a new recession is in the cards, I think it would be more effective to cut back on driving as a first strategy. Going car light doesn't eliminate the insurance overhead, but it immediately reduces out of pocket expenses for fuel, maintenance and repair.

People can't often do much to prepare for a recession, but if that's a concern it wouldn't hurt right now to tune up the family bikes, plan routes and strategies for car light living, and learn how to use whatever public transit resources might be available.

A cargo ship hit the bay bridge and spilled oil into the bay :(
Story here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/08/BAD8T8PLU.DTL

How do we measure the cost of environmental damage such as this?

- having worked in oil and chemical spill response, just be grateful it was an oil spill... people don't understand that while no spill is good, everyone gets riled up over an oil spill because it looks messy, stinks, and does hurt wildlife... but certainly not to the extent that polychlorinated biphenyls injure the environment (it's a persistent organic), or other nasties such as dioxins, which have a half-life of over 50 years (compared to evaporative losses of oil discharges and breakdown measured in weeks, months, or a year or so)...

- definitely a shame about this spill though... i imagine everyone's freaking out over the tarballs washing up on the shorelines (bunker is nasty stuff)...

Why not move to the suburb where your office is? :D

I used to move as my jobs changed. I decided about 5 years ago that jobs change more often than other things such as the church we go to and the "roots" we set. Therefore, we choose an area we wanted to live with a church we liked and decided to stay.

In addition to all of that, my monthly payment would probably close to double as I got my house about 4.5 years ago and the prices are just nuts now. I would make some cash on my current house but not enough to offset the increase in cost of housing, insurance and taxes that would occur if we move.

In addition to that, we just don't like the area that my office is at.

So, for now I just stick it out as I have a good job but the drive sucks.

I used to move as my jobs changed. I decided about 5 years ago that jobs change more often than other things such as the church we go to and the "roots" we set. Therefore, we choose an area we wanted to live with a church we liked and decided to stay.

In addition to all of that, my monthly payment would probably close to double as I got my house about 4.5 years ago and the prices are just nuts now. I would make some cash on my current house but not enough to offset the increase in cost of housing, insurance and taxes that would occur if we move.

In addition to that, we just don't like the area that my office is at.

So, for now I just stick it out as I have a good job but the drive sucks.

Been there done that, maybe you will end up with the job moving closer to you...I have seen it go both ways:rolleyes:

Aaron:)

Ummm, it's the other way around. High oil prices are reflected in higher gas prices; not vice versa.

Yea, good point but I was really tired when I posted.. :)

I remember in the '70's moped became really popular alot of bicycles retrofitted with small gas engines..althought the stuff comming out of the tailpipe was just as bad as a lawnmower..We're probably going to see a contraction of cities to cut out distences to & from work kind of like European cities..

Our mayor gets aroud town on a small motorized scooter. He loves to "complain" about spending $4.75 to fill the tank. I get around by bicycle so I usually don't pay too much attention to fuel prices.

This year, I've been noticing more and more electric bikes and small scooters on the roads. As fuel costs continue to climb, I think we'll see more and more people going to these devices.