Preparing for the end of oil

[Nightshade]

Well, it's official now. The U.S. gov't says we're running out of
oil sooner that they thought. Go figure........:rolleyes::rolleyes:

http://www.alternet.org/story/66625/

[Hobartlemagne]

Interesting. I liked this pic they used.

http://www.alternet.org/images/managed/storyimage_thumb_20071108story.jpg

[linux_author]

- so, should i sell my BP and Exxon stock or buy more?

[gwd]

- so, should i sell my BP and Exxon stock or buy more?

Some defense contractor stock is doing well. If it was worthwhile to go to war over $50.00/bbl its twice as worthwhile to do so for $100.00/bbl right?

[gerv]

Well, it's official now. The U.S. gov't says we're running out of
oil sooner that they thought. Go figure........:rolleyes::rolleyes:

http://www.alternet.org/story/66625/

Quote:"
Underlying the report's general conclusion are a number of specific concerns. Most notably, it points to a worrisome decline in the yield of older fields in non-OPEC countries and a corresponding need for increased output from the OPEC countries, most of which are located in conflict-prone areas of the Middle East and Africa. The numbers involved are staggering. At first blush, it would seem that the need for an extra 10 million barrels per day between now and 2012 would translate into an added 2 million barrels per day in each of the next five years -- a conceivably attainable goal. But that doesn't take into account the decline of older fields. According to the report, the world actually needs an extra 5 million: 3 million to make up for the decline in older fields plus the 2 million in added requirements. This is a daunting and possibly insurmountable challenge, especially when one considers that almost all of the additional petroleum will have to come from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan, Kazakhstan and Venezuela -- countries that do not inspire the sort of investor confidence that will be needed to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into new drilling rigs, pipelines and other essential infrastructure."

One of the problems with any projection like this is something pointed out by Robert Baer in his book Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude http://books.google.com/books?id=b5QBAAAACAAJ

One of the largest oil fields in the world exists in Saudi Arabia, Ghawar, holds an unknown quantity. That's because most of the output is a Saudi state secret. We don't know, for example, if the current output is maintained by pumping steam into the well (which would certainly indicate a declining resource...).

So how can anyone predict future oil supplies, let alone demand?

[slowjoe66]

How am I going to lubricate my chain????

[Bruce_B]

How am I going to lubricate my chain????

Wax.:D Or some sort of synthetic.

[PDay]

We're not out of oil, the consumers just arent getting it! There arent enough refineries, plus OPEC is greedy as ever.

[Nightshade]

We're not out of oil, the consumers just arent getting it! There arent enough refineries, plus OPEC is greedy as ever.

No, "we" are not out of oil. "We", however, are rapidly nearing the end of the supply of oil left
in the earth to find.

As to refineries.....
There are enough refineries if the damand would stablize. That said people MUST stop consuming
so much oil in everything they consume from driving to the foods/meds we eat/take.

Get on your bike, ride mass transit, plant a garden, stop buying plastic stuff,use up
what you already have or share/trade your stuff.

[CrimsonEclipse]

It's not economical for the refineries to build new sites, however, they have
upgraded many of their existing facilities for greater throughput.

That aside, I can't help but notice that all solar companies stocks are up.

Solar home, bike, and if you absolutely HAVE to, electric car.

Too bad I can't afford a home.:(

CE

[linux_author]

Some defense contractor stock is doing well. If it was worthwhile to go to war over $50.00/bbl its twice as worthwhile to do so for $100.00/bbl right?

- i'll take that as a 'yes'! tks!

[Hobartlemagne]

Brazil is planning for the beginning of oil

[evblazer]

wait a second didn't someone say like yesterday on BF there was enough oil under Colorado to completely get us off foreign oil? Once it became profitable to get shale oil, which is at about $97.5 a gallon?

[Hobartlemagne]

They'll drill in Alaska before it's all over.

A lot of Texas wells are back up and running since the market price of oil is high enough for them to make a profit. For a long time, they weren't running.

[gerv]

wait a second didn't someone say like yesterday on BF there was enough oil under Colorado to completely get us off foreign oil? Once it became profitable to get shale oil, which is at about $97.5 a gallon?

There's a layer of oil shale under Colorado called the Green River Formation. Unfortunately, it is of similar composition to the huge bitumen fields in Alberta, Canada, which are said to hold up to 1.7 trillion barrels of crude. The problem with all this is the huge cost of recovering the oil. It can take up to 1 barrel of oil to recover 2 barrels. What this means is that, if the price of oil goes up high enough, we'll have lots of oil, sure, but also an environmental disaster on our hands getting it out of what is essentially rock. Just how desparate are we for oil?


A lot of Texas wells are back up and running since the market price of oil is high enough for them to make a profit. For a long time, they weren't running.

A lot of oil wells are being revived because it is now possible to bring up the oil by sending down steam and hot water which returns an oily mix that is probably very expensive to refine and is definitely a sign that the well is on its last legs.

[CrimsonEclipse]

Think of it like this. If there is a shortage, the DOD gets first pick, followed by priority
transportation, then the lowly consumer which will likely be rationed.

Now the only place you can guess is what the set price of rationed gasoline would be.
$5/gal? $10/gal, who knows.

Personally, I find it all very interesting.

CE

[Newspaperguy]

Now the only place you can guess is what the set price of rationed gasoline would be.
$5/gal? $10/gal, who knows.
The point of rationing anything is to keep the price affordable. Prices remain stable but the amount is controlled. The opposite scenario is to let prices escalate, thus restricting the item to those who are willing to pay more for it. Under such a system, the poor are priced out of the market. Under rationing, everyone is affected equally.

[sumguy]

It's not economical for the refineries to build new sites, however, they have
upgraded many of their existing facilities for greater throughput.

That aside, I can't help but notice that all solar companies stocks are up.

Solar home, bike, and if you absolutely HAVE to, electric car.

Too bad I can't afford a home.:(

CE

a local solar company's stock jumped $57/share on news of a buyout from a major European solar company.

[Newspaperguy]

A lot of oil wells are being revived because it is now possible to bring up the oil by sending down steam and hot water which returns an oily mix that is probably very expensive to refine and is definitely a sign that the well is on its last legs.
The problem with this method isn't the cost of refining. Instead, the water used to bring up the oil is essentially lost for other purposes. When we are facing droughts and water shortages in many areas, using water for oil production seems unethical and irresponsible.

[Bruce_B]

The problem with this method isn't the cost of refining. Instead, the water used to bring up the oil is essentially lost for other purposes. When we are facing droughts and water shortages in many areas, using water for oil production seems unethical and irresponsible.

But we NEED oil. Cars won't run on water :rolleyes:

[fuish]

But we NEED oil. Cars won't run on water :rolleyes:

This is a biking forum after all, wouldn't you rather a world without cars where you could ride your bike freely without risk of being run over?

[Bruce_B]

This is a biking forum after all, wouldn't you rather a world without cars where you could ride your bike freely without risk of being run over?

I guess you missed the sarcasm.

[fuish]

I guess you missed the sarcasm.

It is the internet, sarcasm is sometimes lost through typing ;P

[CrimsonEclipse]

a local solar company's stock jumped $57/share on news of a buyout from a major European solar company.

Isn't it cool? You can make money in ANY market.

The point of rationing anything is to keep the price affordable. Prices remain stable but the amount is controlled. The opposite scenario is to let prices escalate, thus restricting the item to those who are willing to pay more for it. Under such a system, the poor are priced out of the market. Under rationing, everyone is affected equally.

Yeah but it would be a set price, and if the problem has escalated to that level, the price would likely
be at $5-$10 anyway. Personally I think it would be absolutely fascinating watching the scramble for
small cars and motorcycles. I watched the 'baby' crisis after Katrina where the price of a 5 year old
Toyota Echo with 150K miles went for $12k (I kid you not).

CE

[csr]

But we NEED oil. Cars won't run on water :rolleyes:

When oil is finally scarce, we can set up a lane in the park, for drivers who want to scoot around, for old times' sake.

[ericy]

The point of rationing anything is to keep the price affordable. Prices remain stable but the amount is controlled. The opposite scenario is to let prices escalate, thus restricting the item to those who are willing to pay more for it. Under such a system, the poor are priced out of the market. Under rationing, everyone is affected equally.

I heard someone give a talk one (don't remember who), who said we will have rationing. But there are several types of rationing:

Rationing by price. The price goes up which forces people to use less, but the poor get screwed. Actually everyone gets screwed, to one degree or another.
Rationing by availability. Stations run dry, which leads people to drive around even more in a fruitless search for more fuel, and will also lead to hoarding.
Rationing with coupons, like in WWII.

[wahoonc]

I heard someone give a talk one (don't remember who), who said we will have rationing. But there are several types of rationing:

Rationing by price. The price goes up which forces people to use less, but the poor get screwed. Actually everyone gets screwed, to one degree or another.
Rationing by availability. Stations run dry, which leads people to drive around even more in a fruitless search for more fuel, and will also lead to hoarding.
Rationing with coupons, like in WWII.


This is the type of rationing that I saw during Katrina, fortunately it was short lived that it did not become a real issue for too many people for too long. I was prepared and had already filled my truck tanks and some spare fuel available. By cutting out non-essential driving and riding my bicycle to and from work, to the grocery store I was able to make it through without having to buy gas until the problem went away. If it had lasted longer no telling what would have happened.

Aaron:)

[Newspaperguy]

Rationing coupons were actually quite effective in World War II and for that reason, I think such a system could be effective once again. But it's also a method that needs to be used carefully and only under extreme circumstances. During World War II, there was a lot of agreement about the war effort and the reason behind the rationing.

At that point, fuel rationing (which was done to conserve rubber, not oil) was supposed to limit driving to a moderate level. Today, a driver using the same amount of fuel and no more would be considered extremely car light.

Times have changed and in many ways, our world is not the same as it was during World War II. But if a wise, sincere and trusted leader were to logically present the need for a coupon rationing system today, it's possible that we could see such a system working effectively once again.

[Nightshade]

I was prepared and had already filled my truck tanks and some spare fuel available. By cutting out non-essential driving and riding my bicycle to and from work, to the grocery store I was able to make it through without having to buy gas until the problem went away. If it had lasted longer no telling what would have happened.



This post is a good example of what I do as a retiree to cut cost but can be used by many more
people to cut oil consumption overall. The problem is getting people to just .....do it.:(

I live in a small town of 3500 pop. Many people here either walk or ride bikes now more than
ever but I know for those trapped in a suburbia it might be tough....but it's not impossible.

[Roody]

Rationing coupons were actually quite effective in World War II and for that reason, I think such a system could be effective once again. But it's also a method that needs to be used carefully and only under extreme circumstances. During World War II, there was a lot of agreement about the war effort and the reason behind the rationing.

At that point, fuel rationing (which was done to conserve rubber, not oil) was supposed to limit driving to a moderate level. Today, a driver using the same amount of fuel and no more would be considered extremely car light.

Times have changed and in many ways, our world is not the same as it was during World War II. But if a wise, sincere and trusted leader were to logically present the need for a coupon rationing system today, it's possible that we could see such a system working effectively once again.

Man, where were you a few months ago when I suggested coupon rationing on this forum and was unanimously shot down?

I agree that rationing is both the most practical and most equitable way to share out a limited supply of a scarce commodity. Like you say, it was largely effective in WWII, although there were definitely some glitches. Price rationing will raise the cost of living all around, since so many goods are shipped with petroleum. This would presumable be less of a problem with coupon rationing.

Also, if people are faced with a choice of limited suplies at $5 per gallon (coupon rationing), or unlimited supplies at $10 or even $15 (price rationing), they very well might choose the former.

Personally, I'll choose neither option and stick with my bike and mass transit. :)

[CrimsonEclipse]

I heard someone give a talk one (don't remember who), who said we will have rationing. But there are several types of rationing:

Rationing by price. The price goes up which forces people to use less, but the poor get screwed. Actually everyone gets screwed, to one degree or another.
Rationing by availability. Stations run dry, which leads people to drive around even more in a fruitless search for more fuel, and will also lead to hoarding.
Rationing with coupons, like in WWII.


Rationing by availability is the most dangerous AND least efficient. There were lines
after Wilma in S. Fla. whenever there is a shortage, the dumber drivers will sit in
line and burn 1/2 a tank. Causing millions of cars to run at idle actually wastes more
fuel, not to mention creating a catalyst for violence.

Coupon rationing causes corruption and needs additional infrastructure. Possibly a
credit card or ID card that would unlock a pump for X amount of fuel. Something like
that should easily be implemented into a credit card equipped pump. Applying a
system like this would be resisted and would likely need a state of emergency to
launch and maintain the system into society.

CE

[Newspaperguy]

Coupon rationing causes corruption and needs additional infrastructure. Possibly a credit card or ID card that would unlock a pump for X amount of fuel. Something like that should easily be implemented into a credit card equipped pump. Applying a system like this would be resisted and would likely need a state of emergency to launch and maintain the system into society.
I don't agree that a coupon rationing system would cause corruption, especially if coupon rationing is used for fuel. Your friends, neighbours and coworkers would be in the same position as you. If you're getting more than your allotment of fuel and therefore are also driving more, they'll notice it and they'll say something, first to you and then to the authorities. In this way, it's not easy for one person to scam the system.

[wahoonc]

When it comes to the coupon rationing I hate to say it, but I would have to side with CrimsonEclipse...too many people these days are out to get something for nothing. Look at Medicaid Fraud, Welfare Fraud, Unemployment Fraud, Cable Fraud, Insurance Fraud and the list goes on ad nauseum. If they did begin a rationing system I am sure there would be someone, somewhere, selling it on the side or dreaming up a way to beat the system. If you ever dig into the economics of many second and third world countries (some first world too for that matter) you will find there is the "official government rates" then there is the black market rate. We have been spoiled in North America in many ways by the large middle class. I believe as that shrinks you will see more and more people turn to various forms of income in an attempt to fly below the government radar. I have very little trust in the government's ability to regulate anything effectively and in a cost effective manner. I am neither pro nor anti government, but based on their current track record I have serious doubts they are capable of managing anything very effectively.

Aaron:)

[slagjumper]

I wish that for every 12 miles that I ride my bicycle, that 1 gallon of gas would vanish from the face of the earth! But it does not. Instead every day there are 1000 new licensed drivers in Beijing. China has been such a blessing in driving up the price of gas, now if Indian would only do its share.

I think that the best thing that can be done is to accelerate the use, destruction and waste of oil! Who cares if a few idiots make a few bucks trying to mitigate the price of rising gas prices by investing in oil? I don’t want to wait 20 years for it all to be gone.

If only the Hummer plan had been more effective, the masses would have used far more oil by now.

I think that we have about one more generation of oil left, so I would not sell Exxon off just yet, but you might consider getting in on some Russian oil. And since you have no morally ethical concerns you could invest in Chinese toy and pet food manufactures.

Rationing would drive up the price of gas and create hoarders-- both bad. I want that oil gone, not lingering around for more years. Only good thing would be that would come of rationing would be that the oil companies would be vilified for not investing more in refining infrastructure. I'd like the oil companies to go the way of American steel-- where greed and lack of technological investment lead to their demise.

[CrimsonEclipse]

Just for the record, I still believe that coupon rationing is still the best answer.

CE

[Bruce_B]

I wish that for every 12 miles that I ride my bicycle, that 1 gallon of gas would vanish from the face of the earth! But it does not. Instead every day there are 1000 new licensed drivers in Beijing. China has been such a blessing in driving up the price of gas, now if Indian would only do its share.

I think that the best thing that can be done is to accelerate the use, destruction and waste of oil! Who cares if a few idiots make a few bucks trying to mitigate the price of rising gas prices by investing in oil? I don’t want to wait 20 years for it all to be gone.


:beer:

[ericy]

Just for the record, I still believe that coupon rationing is still the best answer.

CE

It has the potential to be the fairest. Preventing fraud would be one of the trickiest issues though. I found something on the web that described how it worked in WWII:

http://www.ameshistoricalsociety.org/exhibits/events/rationing.htm

Back then, they would allocate 4 gallons/week for non-essential people. Wouldn't be much of an imposition for me though :D. The vast majority of people in this country would find that they would need to make adjustments to their lifestyle however. More likely they would whine and moan about how they couldn't *possibly* make do with such a small amount, but that others could surely make the adjustment :rolleyes:.

Back then they were also conserving rubber as well - this time around that is a lesser concern.

The problem is how do you allocate the coupons? Per car? Folks who have more than one vehicle would get an unfair advantage. Per licensed driver? It used to be that it wasn't hard to get a fake drivers license, but after 9/11 it is getting to be a lot tougher. There is a smallish population of non-drivers, such as elderly, people who walk or bike to work, or some such who would have extra coupons. Folks who can walk to work would have a bit of a windfall as they could sell their tickets. But I bet that if the rationing continued for long enough, you would find dead people renewing their drivers licenses :rolleyes:.

I don't know if a coupon system would be instituted just because price had reached a high level. But if there were spot shortages and lines all over the place, there would be a stronger impetus to institute rationing to reduce waste and hoarding.

[Newspaperguy]

I think that the best thing that can be done is to accelerate the use, destruction and waste of oil! Who cares if a few idiots make a few bucks trying to mitigate the price of rising gas prices by investing in oil? I don’t want to wait 20 years for it all to be gone.

If only the Hummer plan had been more effective, the masses would have used far more oil by now.
This is where I disagree. For about 100 years, our society has become more and more dependent on the automobile. Today, our cities and a lot of our networks are based on automobile use and a supply of cheap oil. In the future, the cheap oil will be gone and our societies will change dramatically. But we need to be able to make the transition to a world where cheap oil is not available. Turning off the tap suddenly is not the solution. We need to start by looking at long-range plans and offering incentives to businesses that will help us kick the oil addiction. In the interim, we need to slow down our oil use so we can make the transition without widespread chaos.

[ericy]

It would be easier to simply siphon gas rather than try and come up with forged ration coupons.

I suppose you could also allow unlimited usage beyond the ration amount at a stiff premium - say another 3$/gallon or so above and beyond the price you would pay with coupons.

They had a story last year about how the gas thieves would actually punch a small hole in the bottom of the gas tank and suck it out that way. Bypass any locking gas caps and all that. The main targets were things like campers and U-Haul trucks as they have big tanks. Although if you aren't careful with a camper you might end up with sewage instead :eek:

[Bruce_B]

This is where I disagree. For about 100 years, our society has become more and more dependent on the automobile. Today, our cities and a lot of our networks are based on automobile use and a supply of cheap oil. In the future, the cheap oil will be gone and our societies will change dramatically. But we need to be able to make the transition to a world where cheap oil is not available. Turning off the tap suddenly is not the solution. We need to start by looking at long-range plans and offering incentives to businesses that will help us kick the oil addiction. In the interim, we need to slow down our oil use so we can make the transition without widespread chaos.

Where I live people are not going to make the transition unless they are forced to. These so called higher prices haven't really changed anything here. Maybe for a few people but the full size truck and SUV are still the vehicle of choice, and they speed up and down the roads all day and night. They might get on board with an alternative fuel, but that doesn't really change anything, other than emissions. The people around here are going to burn all the gas they want to until they can't get it anymore. Then they will worry about what to do next.

[Newspaperguy]

Those are exactly the kinds of questions that need to be raised, Deamer. I'll try to give answers to at least some of the questions raised.

First, about how coupon rationing works, it should be equal for everyone. Commercial vehicles such as trucks and buses and emergency vehicles would of course be exempt from the rationing. Rationing must not be based on the vehicle make or model. Otherwise it defeats the purpose of rationing which in this case is to regulate gasoline consumption.

Second, about how the coupons are issued and who would be responsible, I see this as a task for the government. They're already printing money, which is notoriously difficult for the average person to counterfeit. In this case, we could have electronic cards similar to a bank card instead of ration coupons. If a signature or biometrics were required, it would ensure nobody would be able to steal someone else's card.

Third, about stocking up on the ration coupons and using them all on vacation, that should be acceptable. After all, you're still using your allotment of fuel and no more; you're just using it in a different pattern than other motorists.

Fourth, about selling ration coupons to the highest bidder, it's really no different from your third option. You're not increasing total consumption for fuel; you're just choosing not to drive while enabling someone else to drive more. It's your choice. And really, is this all that different from right now? I fill my car once every month or two while someone else fills every three days. I'm saving huge amounts of money by driving less while he's spending a lot because he chooses to drive more.

I understand the parallel between now and world war 2, but I also think it's flawed in some ways. Getting people behind a war is one thing, getting them to radically and permanently alter their lifestyle for the greater good is something else altogether.

I think the biggest difference, in that sense, is that society as a whole is very, very different from what it was in the 1940's. I'm barely in my 30's and even I know there is a very marked contrast between what people saw as "acceptable" behavior then, and what goes on now. People today are way more selfish and disrespectful than they were just 20 years ago. If you need proof just ask your grandparents, or go hit up the 50+ forum.

I've noticed this as well. This is why I've said it would take a wise, sincere and trusted leader to spearhead a good fuel rationing program.

The change in what's considered acceptable behaviour is a factor to consider. This is why any plan to control fuel use must in the end reflect our current situation. There are elements of the World War II system which should be considered, but the final package, if one is adopted, must be much more than a carbon copy of something from 65 years ago.

[davidwalton]

I think the cost per gallon is likely to be much higher. In the UK, the cost is already at £1 per litre, around $9.50 per gallon. We do have a very greedy Government though, taking 80% in TAX.

When Petrol is on it's last legs, it would not surprise me to see cost at the pumps around the $50 per gallon. You have to factor in the greed for everyone to take as much as they can, hence the high price. The poor is not a consideration, they are poor.

[ericy]

I think the cost per gallon is likely to be much higher. In the UK, the cost is already at £1 per litre, around $9.50 per gallon. We do have a very greedy Government though, taking 80% in TAX.

Yeah, but in return you get health care. We have to buy that on our own..

[d_D]

In the transition from plentiful gas to prohibitively expensive gas the government is going to need all the cash it can get. If the markets and people can not handle the transition the government may need to expend considerable resources to keep things running.

Gas rationing would just be a massive subsidy for the status quo. I think you would be trading many smaller shocks along the way for one huge shock at the end when the rationing bubble finally bursts. Then you could end up with a depression and a heavily indebted government struggling to make the necessary social reforms to get things moving again.

[JeffS]

I think the cost per gallon is likely to be much higher. In the UK, the cost is already at £1 per litre, around $9.50 per gallon. We do have a very greedy Government though, taking 80% in TAX.

When Petrol is on it's last legs, it would not surprise me to see cost at the pumps around the $50 per gallon. You have to factor in the greed for everyone to take as much as they can, hence the high price. The poor is not a consideration, they are poor.

Maybe they're just trying to keep their people from digging the kind of hole we in the US are in.

Yes, it could be greed, but it could just as easily be considered smart planning.

[CrimsonEclipse]

Rationing:

I'm guessing it would be issued to each licensed taxpayer with at
least one vehicle. This would include retirees and military. Of the
qualified, it would be one ration per week or month regardless of
the quantity or type of vehicle. There would also be fewer
qualified stations and limited days of use (like the even/odd days
during the 1970's crisis). Expiration of the ration is a possibility
but the duration can match the level of crisis.

Commercial vehicles would be a different story and opens up a
large can o worms. Commercial will have a higher priority than
private vehicles. They would likely have limits and would have
to be handled on a case by case basis. All but the most essential
of services would be rationed but not as heavily as private.

The Department of Transportation or the DOD may be called on
for issuance and and local/state police for enforcement.
I may be wrong on that so I'll research the facts a bit closer
in the near future.

CE

[CrimsonEclipse]

Just a thought, while reading about WWII rationing. I saw a list
of rationed items:

Fuel, rubber, typewriters(?!), sugar, nylon, bicycles....
Bicycles?!?!


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
GOD NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

CE

[Nightshade]

Fella's, get a grip here.......
"Rationing" will allow people to continue to do the same thing instead of changing
the way they travel,shop etc. which is not the point here!!

No amount of dreaming or scheming will change the fact that people/gov't must
soon be ready to do all things........differently. Look at how Cuba makes do with
very little oil to see what I mean.

[ericy]

Fella's, get a grip here.......
"Rationing" will allow people to continue to do the same thing instead of changing
the way they travel,shop etc. which is not the point here!!


I don't see why this is the case. People would be allocated less than they get now, so how would they be able to continue on without making changes??

[Roody]

When it comes to the coupon rationing I hate to say it, but I would have to side with CrimsonEclipse...too many people these days are out to get something for nothing. Look at Medicaid Fraud, Welfare Fraud, Unemployment Fraud, Cable Fraud, Insurance Fraud and the list goes on ad nauseum. If they did begin a rationing system I am sure there would be someone, somewhere, selling it on the side or dreaming up a way to beat the system. If you ever dig into the economics of many second and third world countries (some first world too for that matter) you will find there is the "official government rates" then there is the black market rate. We have been spoiled in North America in many ways by the large middle class. I believe as that shrinks you will see more and more people turn to various forms of income in an attempt to fly below the government radar. I have very little trust in the government's ability to regulate anything effectively and in a cost effective manner. I am neither pro nor anti government, but based on their current track record I have serious doubts they are capable of managing anything very effectively.

Aaron:)I agree that some people would probably use counterfiet coupons to get extra gas. Organized crime would probably try to figure out some way to make money off a coupon system.

But think about it-- What aspect of the oil/gas market is not already corrupt? Could it really get much worse?

Price rationing = a few billionaires legally scamming consumers for billions of dollars

Coupon rationing = a few petty criminals illegally scamming gas stations for a few gallons of gas

And if you really believe that oil prices are set in a free and open market, then I'd like to sell you some oil wells under the Brooklyn Bridge. ;)