Mountain Biking - Of bikes and the coming darkness

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RangerScott
03-13-08, 04:26 PM
I posted this message in the General/Touring/Live Car Free Forums... But I would like your expert opinion. I anticipate both road and trail riding.
Ok, assume the following: there is a state of emergency, gas is $10/gal, whatever... the darkness has come. I need to get home (to my Mom's). It's ~180 miles away. FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION!!! I'm thinking of using a bike to get home; I estimate it would take ~4-5 days. I'm thinking of getting a Dahon Jack. $500 is about my limit with respect to cost. I would like to get a folding bike (I have very little room to store stuff). Ideas??? Any way to make a bike more "failsafe" (ie puncture-proof tires)???
Update: According to the folks in the general forum, I should get a very simple, single speed, steel, caliper brakes, bigger tires bike. Also, they say it should only take 1-2 days (I'll figure on 3-4 to account for detours and evasions).
Update #2: According to the folks in the touring forum, I should look for a hybrid w/ quill stem, and kevlar belts.
Fine, any advice on brand/model??? I got a Camelbak backpack, any idea on how to attach it to the bike??? Don't worry, I will get panniers too. Any advice is greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance,
Scott
mazdaspeed
03-13-08, 04:37 PM
Singlespeed hardtail/rigid mountain bike would probably be your best bet. I'd also keep a weapon on me to fend off people trying to take it.
That being said, I think your proposed situation is a bit tin-foil hat-ish and even if gas was $10 a gallon you could afford to get somewhere if you HAD to.
You say you have $500 to spend on a bike for this worst case scenario, but what about this: Let's assume gas where you live is $3.50 right now. Your $500 would buy you about 140 gallons of gasoline that you could keep in 55 gallon drums where you live and then a few at your mom's place. That much gas, assuming your car gets 30mpg, will take you 4,300 miles. That's more than enough driving to get you by for anywhere you'd HAVE to go, and then you wouldn't run the risk of injuring yourself or getting stranded by riding a bike so far.
RangerScott
03-13-08, 05:37 PM
Sorry, but I don't think storing gas is viable. Besides, bikes can go where cars can't. Am I being a bit tin-foil-hatish??? Perhaps, all I know is there is a darkness coming. I must prepare. I am the only one in my family smart enough and crazy enough to keep my family alive.
Thanks for the reply,
Scott
mazdaspeed
03-13-08, 05:41 PM
Sorry, but I don't think storing gas is viable. Besides, bikes can go where cars can't. Am I being a bit tin-foil-hatish??? Perhaps, all I know is there is a darkness coming. I must prepare. I am the only one in my family smart enough and crazy enough to keep my family alive.
Thanks for the reply,
Scott
Storing gas isn't viable but trying to support your family by riding a bicycle around is? By the time gasoline is $10 a gallon in America, a cheaper way to fuel the car will be available, be it ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, or electricity. I think you're just getting worried about nothing. Also, for what it's worth, gas prices in Europe are already WAY WAY more expensive than anything we pay here, and they are doing just fine.
Forget the bike.. this is your only option.
http://i51.photobucket.com/albums/f392/mcoine/untitled-1.jpg
paul emick
03-13-08, 06:23 PM
...a cheaper way to fuel the car will be available, be it ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, or electricity. I think you're just getting worried about nothing. Also, for what it's worth, gas prices in Europe are already WAY WAY more expensive than anything we pay here, and they are doing just fine.
I think you're approaching from a short-sighted perspective. These alternative fuels all require major fossil fuel inputs to begin with in the short term, and a MAJOR paradigm shift (that will require its own energy expenditure) for the long term.
No one can possibly predict when and, to what extent our lives will be altered, but car culture is facing an imminent collapse.
I too would recommend the hardtail MTB, because of its inherent durability, relative simplicity, and the ubiquitousness of 26" tires.
:)
mazdaspeed
03-13-08, 06:37 PM
I think you're approaching from a short-sighted perspective. These alternative fuels all require major fossil fuel inputs to begin with in the short term, and a MAJOR paradigm shift (that will require its own energy expenditure) for the long term.
:)
They're already mixing ethanol into our gasoline.. I think you're underestimating how seriously the whole situation is being taken. Also, have you heard of the strategic oil reserves? The Iraq war? There are lots of people trying to make sure we have enough oil to support ourselves until the Republicans can make money off of some other energy source. ;)
That being said, it's still hard to say exactly what will happen, but it's gonna be a pretty long time before gasoline reaches anywhere near $10 a gallon. The major issue will be inflation and rising costs of everything because of rising oil prices. I don't really have an answer for how that will play out in the long term, but I don't think it will lead to some kind dark ages relapse.
Chris_F
03-13-08, 06:40 PM
There's no hope, you should just kill yourself now and get it over with.
(kidding, ofcourse).
It's a really silly mental exercise, 180 miles really isn't all that much. Lots of folks do double centuries, I'd suspect you could do the whole trip in a single day if you dead-head it. 2 days at most. 100 miles in a day isn't that big a deal. You could probably walk the whole thing in a week or less.
Most reliable option? A cheap rigid bike, a trailer with a frame pack and good hiking boots in it, and a week's worth of food and water.
pyroguy_3
03-13-08, 06:41 PM
I think you're approaching from a short-sighted perspective. These alternative fuels all require major fossil fuel inputs to begin with in the short term, and a MAJOR paradigm shift (that will require its own energy expenditure) for the long term.
No one can possibly predict when and, to what extent our lives will be altered, but car culture is facing an imminent collapse.
I too would recommend the hardtail MTB, because of its inherent durability, relative simplicity, and the ubiquitousness of 26" tires.
:)
According to your analysis, you too are approaching from a short-sighted perspective. You can't assume that car culture is facing an imminent collapse anymore than somebody can assume there will be a different way to fuel cars.
I can imagine that once the **** hits the fan with the fossil fuels, the car industry will come up with something right quick. There's no better form of research than that fueled by capitalism. Who knows, there may already be a viable alternative fuel being covered up... EVERYTHING is a conspiracy.
Chris_F
03-13-08, 06:42 PM
They're already mixing ethanol into our gasoline.. I think you're underestimating how seriously the whole situation is being taken..
Ethanol is just a scam foisted on us by the agriculture lobby. It takes about as much diesel to produce ethanol as the ethanol produced. Basically 1 gallon of ethanol takes slightly less than 1 gallon of diesel. So why not just use the diesel? Because then ADM wouldn't get their cut...
paul emick
03-13-08, 08:56 PM
According to your analysis, you too are approaching from a short-sighted perspective. You can't assume that car culture is facing an imminent collapse anymore than somebody can assume there will be a different way to fuel cars.
I'm not just talking about the fuel going in our tanks. When petroleum becomes too cost-intensive to harvest (and according to some people, it's getting close), the entire infrastructure will need to be adapted. Of what do you think our roads are made, and what of the machines that construct and maintain them? Cars themselves are produced, shipped, and maintained using vast amounts of petroleum based inputs. Things we take for granted today, and couldn't envision our lives without, will be fond (or bitter) memories.
I have no doubt folks will be ever pitching the next best "alternative fuel." People are going to cling to the last vestiges of car culture until it bankrupts them or kills them. But, due to petroleum products pervading nearly every aspect of our daily lives, with its ever dwindling supply, transportation as we know it will be tremendously different.
Sucks too, I just made the last payment on my sweet '89 IROC Z.
:)
Remember this, "Not all progress is Forward."
paul emick
03-13-08, 09:05 PM
Ethanol is just a scam foisted on us by the agriculture lobby. It takes about as much diesel to produce ethanol as the ethanol produced. Basically 1 gallon of ethanol takes slightly less than 1 gallon of diesel. So why not just use the diesel? Because then ADM wouldn't get their cut...
Sounds a bit like the hydrogen scam. Give us something that sounds good on paper like, "only emits water vapor" or "No more reliance on foreign oil" that we can sell to the masses, hoping they won't question just how much energy it takes to obtain said fuel.
Terrapin Ben
03-13-08, 09:20 PM
progress for the sake of progress is the ideology of a cancer cell. ed abbey spoke those words. or maybe it's from harry potter. anyway, i think you know what i am saying. abbey also said, a patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. and he also said, a drink a day keeps the shrink away. of the coming darkness, who knows. you can ride 100 plus miles in a day easy. navigating them off major roads maybe a whole different story entirely. all i know is america needs to invest more in mass transit, redesign cities to be more self sufficient, and convert suburbia into small towns. the way we are going we can't go on for too much longer. shat wall hat the fin sooner or liter. me however, i will continue to be a pesimistic optimist. i don't think the worse will be as bad as it can be.
i like to think abbey would ride a mountain bike if given a chance. one last quote. "may your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. may your mountains rise into and above the clouds."
DirtPedalerB
03-13-08, 10:20 PM
where are all the empty oilfields?? do we know for sure that we are going to run out? ... humans always know everything, we were sure the world was flat not too long ago.. I don't buy the shortage, or global warming, or a lot of stuff that is presented to me as a fact.
Terrapin Ben
03-13-08, 10:51 PM
you should buy into global warming. you sound incompetent if you don't. if you're looking for an argument, say you don't buy into anthropogenic origins of global warming. of the last twelve years on earth, ten have been the hottest in recorded history. now "the coming darkness" is just conspiracy theorists hack, but global warming is a scientifically proven fact my friend. and most scientists agree that the warming is caused by humans. so you can ignore this silly thread about the end, but please take global climate change seriously. it is very real, and if you aren't feeling its effects now you will in the very near future.
edit because i type poorly.
paul emick
03-14-08, 06:14 AM
Saying that global warming is absolutely happening, and is totally the fault of human beings, is just as naive as denying that it's happening at all, or that it is natural.
Which sounds like the more water-tight statement, more likely to rally people behind a cause?
"Global Warming is all our fault, and unless we change our lifestyles in the following ways, humanity is doomed."
or...
"We don't know, and may never know the impact of our fossil-fuel dependence, but you'd have a hard time arguing that our rapid exhaustion of fossil-fuels has been beneficial to the balance of our ecosystem."
Few people can agree on exactly what will happen, but most people would agree that, given the enormous (and expanding) scale of global energy consumption, our actions will ultimately have a negative impact.
The term "Global Warming" just exacerbates the dichotomy between pragmatists and fatalists.
save_alkaline
03-14-08, 07:32 AM
rangerscott, you sound like you're writing a book.. :)
Forget the bike.. this is your only option.
http://i51.photobucket.com/albums/f392/mcoine/untitled-1.jpg"Interesting" TransAm-izing of that Torino.
"Interesting" TransAm-izing of that Torino.
Come on, thats Mad Max's car.. I figured you might remember that film.
Terrapin Ben
03-14-08, 11:32 AM
Hi Paul. I'm sorry but i don't see how the idea of global warming furthers the distinction between the pragmatists and the doomsdayers. i think that division is already clear, and by definition as seperate as can be. Will we ever run out of oil? I don't think so. Will it get to a point that the extraction of fossil fuels will get to a point where the cost out weighs the benefits? Most likely. Will a new energy be found to replace fossil fuels? I think by necessity, there most certianly will. I believe this is the pragmatic way to look at the situation at hand. Predicting a total and permanent collapse of our economy to the point that all stability and order is gone, in other words "the darkness", would be the fatalists point of view.
i think we're in the same book, just different pages. i totally agree that our dependence on fossil fuels is a bad thing, and that we need to back away from it. however, i think it's very naive to say that the current global warming is natural. i think it's even more naive to say that humans aren't a contributing factor to it. as i said before, i will remain to be a pesimistic optimist about the whole situation.
i guess i just don't unerstand what you're saying in your last post. maybe your big words are just over my head. who knows?
paul emick
03-14-08, 07:42 PM
The point I was trying to make about global warming is this;
Global warming is happening, some scientists say it's perfectly natural, other scientists and Al Gore blame it on human inputs.
Liberals align themselves with the "our fault camp, the right choice or not necessarily the right reasons.
Conservatives, sensing that anything liberals align themselves with is evil, automatically choose the polar opposite viewpoint, aligning themselves with scientists whose data is in contrast to those holding the more popular opinion of human induced climate change. The wrong choice (Imho) for the wrong reasons.
The issue has now been completely politicized, with "environmentalist" assuming the same connotation as "communist."
People with real sense will acknowledge that, no matter your philosophical viewpoint, our lifestyles are negatively impacting the planet now and for future generations. Be you liberal or conservative, none of us wants to leave our children a planet on its last legs, do we?
When people use the term global warming, they're just introducing an infinite talking point, whereas, while the scientist go back and forth regarding whether climate change is natural or not, they could be tackling issues that we all KNOW are negatively affecting us right now.
I do believe that climate change is directly attributable to the post industrial revolution world and its exponentially increasing population, all indirectly or directly striving for the American Dream.
I just think it is a distraction from far more pressing issues.
For what it's worth, Fatalists are people that feel everything is beyond their control, left up to fate, so they don't even bother. Some of these peple believe an omnipotent deity will make it all right.
Not sure if I want to stick around when the s*** hits the fan. lol
And to answer your original question, a mountain bike hard tail with a Cane Creek Thudbuster Suspension Post (http://www.mtbr.com/reviews/Suspension_Seatpost/product_23209.shtml) gets my vote. Mountain bike over hybrid because you will be able to go just about anywhere if your legs want to.
You could probably put in 50-60 miles/day if you're in good shape.
Fat Boy
03-14-08, 08:42 PM
where are all the empty oilfields?? do we know for sure that we are going to run out? ... humans always know everything, we were sure the world was flat not too long ago.. I don't buy the shortage, or global warming, or a lot of stuff that is presented to me as a fact.
We park in the same garage, dude. Get ready for a bunch of blah, blah, blah about your post, but know that you aren't alone.
Fat Boy
03-14-08, 08:51 PM
of the last twelve years on earth, ten have been the hottest in recorded history.
My mom was born in 1940 in a city and the family pooped in an outhouse. You're going to have to excuse me if I question the accuracy of temperature data from earlier than about 1920 or so.
The funniest GW argument I heard was a college kid on the radio presenting information starting in about 1990. He was proclaiming the sky was falling. When asked about data prior to then, he really had nothing. Of course, for him, 1990 was only a couple years after life started, so why look any farther back?
The truth is that over the last couple million years the weather of the Earth is wildly varying from very hot to very cold. There are all sorts of factors involved, not the least of which is the sun. The last 10,000 years or so have been an uncharacteristic calm. Not coincidentally, all sorts of life on the planet has thrived in these conditions. However, just because it's what we know does not at all mean it's 'normal'.
Fat Boy
03-14-08, 09:02 PM
If I had to choose just 1 bike, it'd probably be something pretty boring. I have a Schwinn Voyager that I use to pull my little girls around in their trailer. It cost about $220 at Performance. It has as little bling as you can have on a bike, but it's comfortable and reliable as an anvil. I could make a 180 mile trip in 2 days no problem. 1 day would be a bit of a stretch, but doable (it's much less of a deal on a road bike). I own 2 folders, but for your impending doom scenario, I'd shy away from them. You want something that is more reliable and with less to break.
dirtbikedude
03-15-08, 09:22 AM
Sorry, but I don't think storing gas is viable. Besides, bikes can go where cars can't. Am I being a bit tin-foil-hatish??? Perhaps, all I know is there is a darkness coming. I must prepare. I am the only one in my family smart enough and crazy enough to keep my family alive.
Thanks for the reply,
Scott
I would ask if you are my brother in law but he has a few 50gal drums of fuel stashed already so guess not, plus his mom has passed. Also, do not forget the 1000's of rounds of ammo and how to reload.
As far as a darkness coming, I believe there is one and we are prepared for it BUT every generation has said the same thing, the old folks say the end is near while the young either do not care or do not watch enough news to be frightened by it. It will come. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in 1000 years.
If you really want a secure way to get to moms then buy a horse, learn to train him/her, how to ride well and how to hunt. No need for fuel, the horse can carry a lot of gear along with you and will feed off the natural vegetation. If things get real bad then you also have a source for some burgers and blankets.
As far as alternative fueled vehicles, I would love to have this one (Shiver fork, hope brakes, etc etc)
ENV Motorbike
http://z.about.com/d/motorcycles/1/0/1/0/-/-/flat_profile_elevation_01500.jpg
NitroPye
03-15-08, 11:43 AM
As far as a darkness coming, I believe there is one and we are prepared for it BUT every generation has said the same thing, the old folks say the end is near while the young either do not care or do not watch enough news to be frightened by it. It will come. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in 1000 years.
I am probably the exception but a roommate of mine got into becoming a doctor (think he has 2 years left) because he was convinced that in ten years time there would be such turmoil we would be back to basics living and he wanted a worthwhile "trade". Various other roommates stock piled stuff, etc.. (and we were all in our 20s) but then again we were all not the "norm".
Another friend of mine is convinced that if the draft is instated in the US in the near future there will be a revolution going on so he is gearing up for that.
:eek:
Terrapin Ben
03-15-08, 11:48 AM
Werd Paul. I hear what you are saying, but i will disagree with one thing. The majority of the scientific community believes that global warming is happening because of humans, and the rate that it is happening is far from natural. The scientists who say it's natural or say that it isn't happening at all or keep flip flopping about the cause of global warming or now are trying to focus on the positive effects of living in a world with a warmer global climate get there funding from companies like BP. their goal is not to spread scientific fact to the world, but to sell doubt and manufacture insecurity. they cherry pick data to support their claims and are basicially just trying to strive thrive and make a buck in this world. it's the same thing that the cigarette industry did. we all know that inhaling smoke into our lungs is not healthy. we all know that adding gasses to the atmosphere is going to change it's composition and function. the science behind global warming is very simple and very accepted among the scientific community. the media and a handful of "scientists" are to blame for the general public still believing there is doubt among scientists to the cause of global warming. but i agree, it is just one of many problems the world and more specifically our consumer driven culture is going to have to deal with in the future.
fatboy. temperature records go far beyond 1900 and are still fairly reliable. keep in mind that farmers keep unblievable records about the first frost of the seasons and harvests begin. typically, whenever money is involved there will be good records kept. true, the earth has gone through several ice ages and several warm periods but the problem today is the rate at which we are experiencing warming. it is happening faster than any other time in earth's history. sure crocodiles have lived in northern canada at one point in time. the problem now is whether or not they can adapts to live in a different climate, but if they can migrate/adapt fast enough.
i'm not saying the world is going to end, just that it is going to be a very different world than the on we know now. i'm not trying to sell the idea of the coming darkness, just trying to get some of you skeptics to checkout the science and believe that human caused global warming is happening and something we will all have to deal with.
dirtbikedude
03-15-08, 12:07 PM
...but i will disagree with one thing. The majority of the scientific community believes that global warming is happening because of humans, and the rate that it is happening is far from natural...
The one problem in that statement would be, "...because of humans..."
Global warming is a fact of nature and not caused by humans. The correct thing to say would be, "...the rate at which global warming is increasing is in part do to humans ...".
DBD:beer:
p.s. Are we still in the MTB forum?? :p By the way, I am getting a new ride. Ohhh yeah!!
born2bahick
03-15-08, 12:15 PM
p.s. Are we still in the MTB forum?? :p By the way, I am getting a new ride. Ohhh yeah!!
Whass u gettin dude?
paul emick
03-15-08, 02:19 PM
Werd Paul. I hear what you are saying, but i will disagree with one thing. The majority of the scientific community believes that global warming is happening because of humans, and the rate that it is happening is far from natural.
We don't disagree on this at all. I'm just saying that because there are those scientist willing to offer "proof" to the contrary, conservatives have a fighting position opposite liberals.
No one is out there touting pollution as beneficial, but there are people out there saying "global warming is natural, keep on doing what you're doing", and they do have their followers.
paul emick
03-15-08, 02:23 PM
[B][COLOR=DarkOliveGreen]The one problem in that statement would be, "...because of humans..."
Global warming is a fact of nature and not caused by humans. The correct thing to say would be, "...the rate at which global warming is increasing is in part do to humans ..."
This perfectly illustrates my point.
Thanks DBD. :D
DirtPedalerB
03-15-08, 02:44 PM
It's a climate it's supposed to change or we wouldn't monitor it. It's all theory, it's no more fact than the big bang or evolution etc... before global warming it was global cooling or shading from too much dust in the air... maybe that's why it is warmer in the last 10 years, all the environment friendly junk.
dirtbikedude
03-15-08, 03:06 PM
Whass u gettin dude?
I was doin' a bit of GAMBLIN and heard a few fellas sayin' there be a RANSOM on my head. ;)
DBD:beer:
Terrapin Ben
03-15-08, 03:35 PM
We don't disagree on this at all. I'm just saying that because there are those scientist willing to offer "proof" to the contrary, conservatives have a fighting position opposite liberals.
No one is out there touting pollution as beneficial, but there are people out there saying "global warming is natural, keep on doing what you're doing", and they do have their followers.
Werd. I hear you now. I guess i was just confused as to which side of the fence you were on. That is all sound and good. I am glad there are so many environmentally aware people on the forum. Welp, time to get back to the books! Have a good weekend everyone. Happy trails!
2manybikes
03-15-08, 03:57 PM
This will conserve fuel and still carry lots of stuff.
And 100 miles is only a one hour ride.
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/1525/schwinnwithharleymiddlefy9.jpg
Fat Boy
03-15-08, 04:29 PM
fatboy. temperature records go far beyond 1900 and are still fairly reliable. keep in mind that farmers keep unblievable records about the first frost of the seasons and harvests begin.
On this we agree. Our ancestors did a great job with the tools they were able to construct. The 'True Believers' are basing their 'facts' to fractions of a degree on data that simply did not have that level of precision when it was originally collected. 'Fairly reliable' doesn't cut it. Further, they are basing impending doom on simulations that cannot accurately model the past. If it can't model the past, how is it supposed to model the future?
I am an engineer that does both data acquisition and simulation work. Getting valid data is an _absolute_ necessity before any analysis can happen. It is very difficult to get truly accurate data on completely mundane industrial applications. Furthermore, it's more difficult to take that data and then accurately relate it to a simulation that has any level of accuracy. Knowing what I know, I just do not accept the data from a 100 years ago as much more than pieces of general interest. Further, when I think of the difficulty of modeling something along the lines of planetary weather patterns decades and centuries into the future I cannot take these 'conclusions' as anything more than a self fulfilling prophesy. As someone who does this, I _know_ that it's possible to get anything out of a computer simulation that you want. It's all a matter of tweaking the model and boundary conditions until you're happy with the results.
Further, the times that humans have been on the planet is a mouse fart. This planet is billions of years old. To have the audacity to believe we can 'save' or 'destroy' it is really thinking quite a bit of ourselves, don't you think?
skingry
03-15-08, 04:29 PM
180 miles? Don't want to be seen? Want to know the best way to do it?
Your feet. Invest in a decent pair of shoes (Chuck Taylors, **** boots). 15-25 miles a day over developed terrain is very doable (if you are in shape).
A bike is great idea, but in the kind of apocalypse you are cooking up in your head, a bike would be a magnet for trouble (that and the kind of apocalypse will never happen, except in movies).
If I had to go bike, I'd agree with the general forum guys... steel single speed with no suspension and 26" kevlar tires (carry three extra tubes and a patch kit).
skingry
03-15-08, 04:31 PM
This planet is billions of years old. To have the audacity to believe we can 'save' or 'destroy' it is really thinking quite a bit of ourselves, don't you think?
Granted this is OT from the topic of the thread (and the sub forum) but... +1.
cryptid01
03-15-08, 04:55 PM
Further, the times that humans have been on the planet is a mouse fart. This planet is billions of years old.
Nobody's claiming we're going to destroy the planet. nice try though.
To have the audacity to believe we can 'save' or 'destroy' it is really thinking quite a bit of ourselves, don't you think?
Trivializing humans' impact on the quality of life of future generations is the supreme act of selfishness imo.
Terrapin Ben
03-15-08, 05:06 PM
On this we agree. Our ancestors did a great job with the tools they were able to construct. The 'True Believers' are basing their 'facts' to fractions of a degree on data that simply did not have that level of precision when it was originally collected. 'Fairly reliable' doesn't cut it. Further, they are basing impending doom on simulations that cannot accurately model the past. If it can't model the past, how is it supposed to model the future?
There are two requirements for understanding what happened at a particular point of climate change in geological history. One is an internally consistent theory based on physical principles; the other is sufficient data to determine the physical properties involved.
We get our data from ice cores, pollen records, ocean sediments, rock layers, fossils, and whatever else we can think of. All of that is just data about the past. Today we monitor absolutely everything we can think of. And we are able to model the recent past quite accurately. We know the atmospheric levels of ozone, CO2, CH4, NO2, etc. to a high degree of precision, and on a month to month basis, across the globe. We know where the continents are, how the oceans are flowing and the size of the ice sheets. Combine that with data about the past and you come up with reliable models. Maybe that isn't good enough for you, but that's good enough for me. Even though we haven't yet reached a perfect and flawless understanding of what is happening now, there is no known climate change in the earth's past that provides substantial contradiction of the theories that underpin anthropogenic global warming.
As to the power of humans to save or destroy our planet, who knows? Maybe everything we have done will only result in a global pimple. But who wants a pimple?
junkyard
03-15-08, 05:46 PM
Make sure to think in Russian so the aliens can't read your thoughts.
Fat Boy
03-15-08, 06:11 PM
Trivializing humans' impact on the quality of life of future generations is the supreme act of selfishness imo.
Pah-shaw! I can top it.
On this we agree. Our ancestors did a great job with the tools they were able to construct. The 'True Believers' are basing their 'facts' to fractions of a degree on data that simply did not have that level of precision when it was originally collected. 'Fairly reliable' doesn't cut it. Further, they are basing impending doom on simulations that cannot accurately model the past. If it can't model the past, how is it supposed to model the future?
I am an engineer that does both data acquisition and simulation work. Getting valid data is an _absolute_ necessity before any analysis can happen. It is very difficult to get truly accurate data on completely mundane industrial applications. Furthermore, it's more difficult to take that data and then accurately relate it to a simulation that has any level of accuracy. Knowing what I know, I just do not accept the data from a 100 years ago as much more than pieces of general interest. Further, when I think of the difficulty of modeling something along the lines of planetary weather patterns decades and centuries into the future I cannot take these 'conclusions' as anything more than a self fulfilling prophesy. As someone who does this, I _know_ that it's possible to get anything out of a computer simulation that you want. It's all a matter of tweaking the model and boundary conditions until you're happy with the results.
Further, the times that humans have been on the planet is a mouse fart. This planet is billions of years old. To have the audacity to believe we can 'save' or 'destroy' it is really thinking quite a bit of ourselves, don't you think?
Atmospheric temperature, now and a million years ago, is directly related to atmospheric CO2 levels, which can be measured now, and in ice that was formed millions of years ago. Global warming data was not collected by farmers, but by scientists very recently.
probable556
03-15-08, 07:38 PM
Can someone please start a "how to carry a gun on a bike" thread?
dirtbikedude
03-15-08, 08:28 PM
Can someone please start a "how to carry a gun on a bike" thread?
No need, there is a solution already
http://www.texaselectricbikes.com/catalog/images/gunrack2.JPG
bclevenger
03-15-08, 09:06 PM
I'm a Geologist. Buy a nice hardtail and a tube or two and a patch kit an learn how to use them. 2 days ride on the roads....the roads won't deteriorate for quite awhile.....prices will rise...and fall....temp will go up...and down.....the US will starve for oil with barrel under each arm. We've got it, we're just depleting the rest of the world before we REALLY tap what we have, and we'll pass laws to keep ANYONE from drilling it till we really want it. By then we won't really need it anyway.
Global warming" by humans" is BS.
Just because we crave the Mad Max scenario.....doesn't mean it will happen.....civilivization has happenened, sucks I know, but it just won't happen.
Everyone needs at least 5 bikes.....what's in your wallet?
Fat Boy
03-15-08, 09:19 PM
Very well said.
Sorry, but I don't think storing gas is viable. Besides, bikes can go where cars can't. Am I being a bit tin-foil-hatish??? Perhaps, all I know is there is a darkness coming. I must prepare. I am the only one in my family smart enough and crazy enough to keep my family alive.
Thanks for the reply,
Scott
If there is going to be some darkness afoot, I'd bet a bike light would come in handy, I would.
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