Living Car Free - Peak oil: the doomer scenario

I don't think it will be as bad as the doomer scenario would have us believe, but already there are signs of the ugly side of humanity showing itself...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/bowser-thefts-linked-to-stolen-rego-plates/2007/05/12/1178899160641.html

As petrol goes up in price it seems that an increasing number of people consider theft as a preferable choice over other options...... So, what's going to happen when food prices start going the same way and people find themselves motivated to turn to crime by hunger? (even worse, their children's hunger:eek:)

I'm starting to suspect that my faith in humanity is misplaced and things are going to get uglier than I led myself to believe... much uglier. :(

Instead of a 'Manufactured Landscape' (2007 movie) we can consider millions and millions of Hobbit holes underground.....

A certain portion of the population (at least here in the US) is going to use what ever excuse they can for crime. More than one recent incident around here has been attributed to rising fuel prices and the loss of a home because of the sub-prime mess.

Food banks and other social safety nets are feeling the pinch too, and are having problems meeting the growing demand. Unfortunately, at least in this country we have a large group of people that feel entitled, and will do little or nothing to help themselves. As a result if they don't have what they want or think they need they will resort to whatever they deem necessary to "help themselves" Witness the problems and issues during the 2005 hurricane season. Admittedly extreme cases, but just the same.

Aaron:)

I don't think it will be as bad as the doomer scenario would have us believe

...

I'm starting to suspect that my faith in humanity is misplaced and things are going to get uglier than I led myself to believe... much uglier. :(

Cognitive dissonance?

I'm starting to suspect that my faith in humanity is misplaced and things are going to get uglier than I led myself to believe... much uglier. :(

Dood. You're from Australia. They filmed Mad Max there. You already know how it will go down...

I don't think it will be as bad as the doomer scenario would have us believe, but already there are signs of the ugly side of humanity showing itself...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/bowser-thefts-linked-to-stolen-rego-plates/2007/05/12/1178899160641.html

As petrol goes up in price it seems that an increasing number of people consider theft as a preferable choice over other options...... So, what's going to happen when food prices start going the same way and people find themselves motivated to turn to crime by hunger? (even worse, their children's hunger:eek:)

I'm starting to suspect that my faith in humanity is misplaced and things are going to get uglier than I led myself to believe... much uglier. :(
If things get uglier, will living car free still be a good way to go? Especially if living car free means getting around by bike. Without that steel cage around us we're more vulnerable to attack. I'm reminded of the '80s when I was showing my nice motorbike to some Ugandan refugees. They made the offhand comment that back in their country, right after the Idi Amin time, you couldn't ride a bike so nice because it would be stolen as soon as you took it out on the road.

The stages of being told a death sentence is......
Shock, denial, anger, action, total collapse of reason, animalistic sub brain behavior.

Peak oil is the death sentence of the oil society world wide.

I'd say we all are at the denial stage of the impact oil has on all of our lives.

So what is bowser theft? The definition I found on Google (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=define%3Abowser) is:


"A bowser is a fuel tanker used to deliver fuel to aircraft at airports or airfields. The name comes from an early designer of petrol pumps, Sylvanus Bowser, and the company he founded, S. F Bowser, Inc., which was a pioneer in the production of fuel handling and oil purification equipment."

So what is bowser theft? The definition I found on Google (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=define%3Abowser) is:

Bowser theft = people using stolen number plates to fill up their tanks at a gas station and then drive off without paying.

Around here the 'bowser' is the pump that you use at the gas station (AKA petrol station, service station, servo)

The stages of being told a death sentence is......
Shock, denial, anger, action, total collapse of reason, animalistic sub brain behavior.

Peak oil is the death sentence of the oil society world wide.

I'd say we all are at the denial stage of the impact oil has on all of our lives.

There are individuals that are at the denial stage, some even as far as the action stage (eg utility cyclists ;) ) but as a society as a whole I don't think we're at the shock stage. It certainly appears as though society is in denial but it's because we're still at business-as-usual. Of course, I'm the least qualified person to know this so I'm probably wrong.

I think it will take a massive wakeup call like, say, a major terrorist attack on a Saudi shipping port that temporarily cuts off oil exports to the western world and the ensuing upheaval in the following months, before western society as a whole is truly shocked.

Dood. You're from Australia. They filmed Mad Max there. You already know how it will go down...

Mad Max?... oh you mean that documentary on contemporary Australian suburban life :D

http://www.alternet.org/audits/82476/

America will not handle Peak Oil well. While the peak will likely be rather long and flat, the crisis will be induced by ever expanding world demand.

87% of the energy used by America is from oil, coal and natural gas. Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain have no plan ameliorate the problem. In fact, none of them have even addressed peak oil at all. No doubt a cap and trade scheme will increase energy supplies! :rolleyes:

America picked a great time to choose un-serious politicians for the presidency.

There are individuals that are at the denial stage, some even as far as the action stage (eg utility cyclists ;) ) but as a society as a whole I don't think we're at the shock stage. It certainly appears as though society is in denial but it's because we're still at business-as-usual. Of course, I'm the least qualified person to know this so I'm probably wrong.

I think it will take a massive wakeup call like, say, a major terrorist attack on a Saudi shipping port that temporarily cuts off oil exports to the western world and the ensuing upheaval in the following months, before western society as a whole is truly shocked.

I would vote for the Denial stage. Everyone is complaining, but in their heart-of-hearts they are awaiting a major oil find in the US (or Australia...) or perhaps a perpetual motion machine.

The scenario you describe as a major wakeup call is indeed likely too. Here's an article from 2006 (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1086436.ece) on that exactly scenario. This time it was just a thread but


In February[2006] al-Qaeda terrorists attempted an attack against the Saudi oil processing facility at Abqaiq. Two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil is exported from the Gulf via the Abqaiq facility. The attack failed because of a tight naval security ring around the site.

87% of the energy used by America is from oil, coal and natural gas. Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain have no plan ameliorate the problem.

That's because there isn't a solution.
Solar/Wind/Nuclear CAN NOT replace millions of years of stored sunshine.

We'd have to build a new nuclear reactor every day for 10+ years, to supply the 3.5 terawatts of energy that the US uses every year.

The cold hard fact, is that our burgeoning world pop, and its rampant consumerism is based on cheap oil, and it is ultimately unsustainable.

That's because there isn't a solution.
Solar/Wind/Nuclear CAN NOT replace millions of years of stored sunshine.Fortunately it doesn't have to.
We'd have to build a new nuclear reactor every day for 10+ years, to supply the 3.5 terawatts of energy that the US uses every year.I think consume is a bit better in terms of describing the situation. We, as couple hundred pound humans, certainly do not get much quantitative use out of moving a couple hundred pounds of us and a few thousand pounds of barn door.

I'm starting to suspect that my faith in humanity is misplaced and things are going to get uglier than I led myself to believe... much uglier. :(Depends on how ya saw it in the first place. A couple years ago, a full tank of gas in my truck was worth a little under $15, but now it's around $35. I can't leave it out and full any more for the same reason I can't leave a $35 video game out on the porch, people want it and it's worth a decent amount. My Shovel/rake/etc otoh, aren't worth more than $10-15, and as such they likely won't get stolen.