Google sponsored links
(This story fit's in with many topics about food riots, fuel price & when ,or if, we will drive a car
at all. It's possible that the bicycle will become more important that any of us ever could guess.)
We all know about the price sqeeze we all are facing on everthing.
This story details what the media won't tell or only hints at.
This is recommended reading if you want to factor what can happen
in your & your families life if you care not to far in our future.
(I think it's already started which explains many world events of late)
It's often said....."Knowledge is power or at least a good defense.
Denial is the path to hunger and want".
From the story......
http://www.alternet.org/audits/82476/
This is an archived thread, you can find the full version of this thread, with images, links and more content
here.
Ready to buy? Check out these two online bike stores:
-
http://www.nashbar.com (you can find the latest bike nashbar coupons in
this thread)
-
http://www.performancebike.com (you can find the latest performance bike coupons in
this thread)
Cya on the forums,
- The BikeForums Team
-
http://www.bikeforums.net
I read that yesterday. Even though the conclusions sound drastic the analysis was very conservative. For example Kare put peak oil plateau a decade or two out but others, like Kunstler has it two years ago.
The article really raises ominous points about wars and offers little hope of technology rescue since oil companies are claiming to lead but really blocking the new directions for energy.
We all know about the price sqeeze we all are facing on everthing.
I hate to make a virtue of necessity, but I envision this as a good time to go on a diet, relax, stopping buying things, keep out of cars, watch the grass grow.
Could be fun...
I hate to make a virtue of necessity, but I envision this as a good time to go on a diet, relax, stopping buying things, keep out of cars, watch the grass grow.
Could be fun...
And healthy.
Add a library card to the mix, and you might even get smarter!
There's a couple featured in this article (http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1208314533290870.xml&coll=7) who would benefit from getting rid of one car and using bikes more on so many levels...
Oregonians make tough money choices to get by
Two couples and a single woman tell how tough life has become as fuel and food prices climb
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
DAVID AUSTIN
The Oregonian
Escalating gasoline prices. Increasing grocery bills. Skyrocketing utility costs.
They're in the headlines every day, but Oregonians are feeling the pinch in ways they haven't seen since the last recession.
Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economics professor and the director of the school's Oregon Economic Forum, said working people are hurting more now because income levels haven't grown since the last recession in 2001. The American dream, he says, is moving out of reach.
"A decent job doesn't get you there anymore," he says. "It doesn't take much to throw an average person into debt with the huge increase in food bills and utility bills. You have families wondering how they fell so far behind. Even families that you could say were well off have felt the stress because the incomes are stagnant."
Officials with agencies that help the needy say they're seeing something unprecedented: More families with two incomes are joining other needy people seeking help with food, shelter and other essentials.
"We have so many more people coming in here, and they're embarrassed," says Traci White, social services director for Portland Adventist Community Services. "They say, 'Gas is up. My food costs are up. We just can't make it.' They feel like they're having to beg."
Some families, even those with two incomes, are just steps away from a fiscal catastrophe, White says. Others are getting pressed to make choices about which bills to pay.
Juggling payments
Take Dave Fossler and Kate Long, for example. A few years ago, a couple making a combined income of $52,000 a year could get by just fine. But today, it's a stretch.
Long considers herself a bit of a juggler when it comes to the bills she shares with Fossler, her longtime partner.
It's not uncommon for Long, a customer service representative for Blue Cross/Blue Shield, to push aside the electric bill to make sure the rent gets paid. Or maybe the gas bill goes overdue to cover Fossler's tool expenses for his job as a mechanic.
But that strategy -- pushed to the limit by soaring food and gasoline prices -- backfired last month when they found the gas had been shut off. The cost to reconnect it? More than $400, Long says. "These days when the bills come, we go, 'How do we pay?' " she says. "In the last six months, things really have kind of snowballed on us."
They rent a house but plan to move into an apartment or duplex to cut costs. Recently, they received a tax return but put it toward back rent. Long says they're now about a month behind in the rent but have an understanding landlord. "She trusts us," Long says.
Fossler, 44, and Long, 38, both work full time, but a combination of medical bills from her diabetes, bad luck with roommates and the slowing economy have put them in the hole.
As a mechanic, Fossler works six days a week on commission at a Southeast Portland garage. But with the sour economy, customers have backed off on maintenance and repairs. That starts a spiral that leads to him making less money. Also, he is paying child support.
When the couple first moved into their house, the $1,200-a-month rent wasn't a problem because they had a roommate who helped foot the bill. But she got pregnant and had to move out. Someone else moved in but quickly lost a job, leading to another lost roommate.
They don't have Internet service or cable TV. They rent movies, and Long takes the bus to work to save on gas. They own two cars but only drive one.
Meanwhile, food costs, they say, have gone up. They're paying about $200 a month more on food than compared with a year ago, Long estimates.
"A lot of people want to move forward and set themselves up for a good future," Fossler says. "But lately with us, it seems like we're going backwards."
"We have two jobs, and we're trying," Long says. "But it doesn't seem like enough."
Tough choices
Young couples have always struggled when it comes to money. But for Lindsey and Tim Burns, the struggle seems harder and longer these days.
Lindsey, in her second year of a two-year graduate program for counseling, wants to become a licensed professional therapist. For now, she makes about $150 a week as a part-time trainer at Curves.
Tim recently was moved from part time to full time at an office supply store. He gets health benefits for the first time, makes about $18,000 a year and says he looks forward to one day buying a house with his wife and having a family.
Given rising costs, however, that day may be further away than they'd hoped. Together, they make at most about $25,800 a year because Lindsey's job isn't permanent.
Rising gas costs hit them particularly hard because Lindsey has to drive two days a week to Longview, Wash., as part of an internship she has for her school work, a round trip of about 100 miles. With regular unleaded gas hitting an average cost of $3.49 a gallon this week, the trip cuts deeply into the Burnses' budget -- and their plans.
"Getting a house, getting a car that's reliable and then having kids is the plan," says Tim, 24. "But for that to happen, we're looking five years down the road before we have the kind of income that would support that. Right now, we just barely get by paying rent."
The bills for the Burnses are stacking up. Lindsey, 29, worries about paying her student loans from college and graduate school. She has about $3,000 in medical bills for a series of MRIs she had to get after visiting a neurologist last year. Insurance only covered a portion.
Tim's car broke down recently, and the couple had to borrow money from Lindsey's parents to get it fixed.
"I don't get my hair done, and we can't even go to the movies," she says. "We just can't afford to do those extra things. Dinner out for us is McDonald's or Arby's, and that's not all the time."
They also do without cable and the Internet, and going out at night isn't an option.
"I look at the economy more on how it hits us on a day-to-day basis," Tim says. "When my car broke down, we had to borrow money. We'd been saving up for an elliptical machine, but we had to put that toward paying for part of the car. It's rough because I feel like I was doing better when I was living with my mom. You just have to make tough choices."
Relying on experience
As a single person with a relatively low income, Joan Willie has long had to know how to deal with money problems. And these days, with rising expenses, things remain difficult. But Willie's experience in making ends meet has helped her cope.
The rising cost of food makes Willie cautious when she buys groceries. As a year-round gardener, she bolsters her supply with vegetables that she grows.
Willie, 54, lives in outer Southeast Portland and relies on a social service agency for help with some of her winter utility bills. The agency also provides space in a community garden for participants to grow produce.
Willie says she has chard, kale, onions, broccoli and collard greens as staples right now, "along with anything else that'll grow in these conditions."
"I can't deal with all the hassle of trying to get any food stamps, so I just eke things out and make ends meet," she says.
She makes roughly $9 an hour at a video store and puts in at least 20 hours a week. Sometimes, she gets overtime but there's rarely enough left over to save. She has to pay about $48 a month for health benefits.
She doesn't have a computer, cable TV or a cell phone. "Extras that I can't afford," she says.
The bulk of her income goes to the $575-a-month rent for her two-bedroom apartment. She owns a car but drives only to work and for groceries.
Of today's economy, she says: "When I was a kid, all it took was for the man of the house to go out and earn a paycheck. Now, if you're raising a family, both parents have to go out and work, and you'll be lucky if you can get by."
(This story fit's in with many topics about food riots, fuel price & when ,or if, we will drive a car
at all. It's possible that the bicycle will become more important that any of us ever could guess.)
We all know about the price sqeeze we all are facing on everthing.
This story details what the media won't tell or only hints at.
This is recommended reading if you want to factor what can happen
in your & your families life if you care not to far in our future.
(I think it's already started which explains many world events of late)
It's often said....."Knowledge is power or at least a good defense.
Denial is the path to hunger and want".
From the story......
http://www.alternet.org/audits/82476/
Everything looks like shadows if you wear dark sunglasses.
Remember when.... The strong dollar and high cost of American production was sending production overseas?
Well, this is the flip side of that. The dollar gets weaker and USA produced goods/services become competitive. Eventually, people will have a chance at some real money in production.
So, you don't get your Chinese made $5.00 flip-flops at Walmart anymore, but maybe you can afford a pair of good leather shoes because you have a job.
Maybe, just maybe, America will get over the era of massive junk consumerism. Look around your dwelling. Is your life filled with junk trinkets that filled a need for gratifying purchasing for a moment, but later mostly took up space? It wasn't always like that. Maybe a steak once in awhile will be a treat and maybe you will start to think about buying one good quality article instead of three pieces of junk. Maybe you will make a loaf of bread in your own oven. Maybe you will drink a homebrew that your neighbor made.
Inflation won't be fun. It will suck. Somehow, however, we will all survive. Believe it or not, there will be happy times too.
One day at a time, my friends. If your stomach is full today and your blanket is warm, sleep well. The morning will be there when you wake up just as surely as it ever was.
They own two cars but only drive one. So sell one. That's a bunch of gas bills paid right there.
So sell one. That's a bunch of gas bills paid right there.
As gas prices rise, will that extra car be more valuable on the market this year or next year?
I would expect a glut on the used car market.
What impressed me the most about the article was the realization is that energy is really a coin of the realm, that almost everything is affected by the cost of energy. The development of Ethanol was the element that revealed that it is all connected. Food or fuel, both are energy, its a bit like the old argument of guns or butter.
Everything looks like shadows if you wear dark sunglasses.
Remember when.... The strong dollar and high cost of American production was sending production overseas?
Well, this is the flip side of that. The dollar gets weaker and USA produced goods/services become competitive. Eventually, people will have a chance at some real money in production.
So, you don't get your Chinese made $5.00 flip-flops at Walmart anymore, but maybe you can afford a pair of good leather shoes because you have a job.
Maybe, just maybe, America will get over the era of massive junk consumerism. Look around your dwelling. Is your life filled with junk trinkets that filled a need for gratifying purchasing for a moment, but later mostly took up space? It wasn't always like that. Maybe a steak once in awhile will be a treat and maybe you will start to think about buying one good quality article instead of three pieces of junk. Maybe you will make a loaf of bread in your own oven. Maybe you will drink a homebrew that your neighbor made.
Inflation won't be fun. It will suck. Somehow, however, we will all survive. Believe it or not, there will be happy times too.
One day at a time, my friends. If your stomach is full today and your blanket is warm, sleep well. The morning will be there when you wake up just as surely as it ever was.
Exactly. People seem to have really short memories when it comes to recessions. This current recession is cake (so far) compared with the late 70's, and the late 80's.
I remember the late 80's housing crash when the mortgage rates were in the double digits AND it was required to put at least 20% down. A lot of people lost a lot of money, just like today. And yet just like every recession, people might have been pinched a bit, but most overall did just fine.
People will adjust to both the high price of gas and the crashing dollar. In some ways it will be bad, in other ways it will be good.
I'm already seeing a lot of homeless people begging on the subways.
I may be young and naive but I don't seem to recall hedge fund managers making
one billion dollars, maybe they did back in the 80's.
side note, I was watching my old re-runs of the Mary Tyler Moore show and one
episode where Rhoda was dating a guy who appears to be "connected" turned out
he was an executive who wanted to be a forest ranger and quit his High paying
job making $30K a year.
be grateful you have a job.
I hate to make a virtue of necessity, but I envision this as a good time to go on a diet, relax, stopping buying things, keep out of cars, watch the grass grow.
Could be fun...
Very mature attitude indeed. :D:D
I would expect a glut on the used car market.[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
Especially a glut of gas guzzlers. Actually those things are nearly there already - last summer there were dealers that wouldn't take a big SUV as a trade-in as they had too many of them to begin with.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see a rash of insurance fraud as people try and torch them and claim the insurance.
Especially a glut of gas guzzlers. Actually those things are nearly there already - last summer there were dealers that wouldn't take a big SUV as a trade-in as they had too many of them to begin with.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see a rash of insurance fraud as people try and torch them and claim the insurance.
I own an SUV and have since it was new.....in 1993. I CAN afford my suv because I bought
it to drive for 20+ years so as to conserve the resources it takes to build all the cars that
I would otherwise have to buy. We can also afford it because we use it ONLY when we have
to leave our small town to visit the city or to visit our children (a Looooooong drive) once
or twice a year.
We travel in limosine comfort for pennies a mile now and I feel not one bit of guilt for
being a car keeper. That said, anyone who use/owns an suv for everyday transport is
nuts! This type of vehicle was never intended to be an everyday vehicle. My suburban
was built for long life and supreme comfort when used as intended.. That
it does very well. The rest of our transport needs is done on our bicycle/tricycles in
town.
So you can see it's not what vehicle you own it's how smart you use it. There are
a lot of not to smart people driving suv everyday.
I have to say I am very surprised to learn that you own an SUV. I feel the same way about my firebird. Yes it's a "gas guzzler" since it gets 28mph on a freeway. On a flip side I doubled the miles I have put on it since last summer by driving from SoCal to Bay Area this week (400 miles). It was still cheaper then flying, and less stressful.
I own an SUV and have since it was new.....in 1993. I CAN afford my suv because I bought
it to drive for 20+ years so as to conserve the resources it takes to build all the cars that
I would otherwise have to buy. We can also afford it because we use it ONLY when we have
to leave our small town to visit the city or to visit our children (a Looooooong drive) once
or twice a year.
We travel in limosine comfort for pennies a mile now and I feel not one bit of guilt for
being a car keeper. That said, anyone who use/owns an suv for everyday transport is
nuts! This type of vehicle was never intended to be an everyday vehicle. My suburban
was built for long life and supreme comfort when used as intended.. That
it does very well. The rest of our transport needs is done on our bicycle/tricycles in
town.
So you can see it's not what vehicle you own it's how smart you use it. There are
a lot of not to smart people driving suv everyday.
As gas prices rise, will that extra car be more valuable on the market this year or next year?
I would expect a glut on the used car market.
Just one of the reasons I got rid of my truck before it was too late. I have a feeling it won't be long before it gets extremely difficult to sell a vehicle that only gets 15mpg!
A lot of the problems people are having now are things they brought upon themselves. If a person is borrowing money for a huge plasma television, well that's his business but I'd say he has his priorities severly mixed up. One of my coworkers pays $130 a month for cable TV, drives an SUV, lives 18 miles from work, and has a wife and two children. If that were me I'd be making some major lifestyle changes as quickly as possible.
I wasn't really aware of peak oil when I bought my last truck, however I always buy used and always pay cash. So I will continue to use it until I either can't buy fuel it or it isn't worth fixing. Currently my company is covering the operating costs on it...drive on! However we are being "encouraged" to find creative ways to cut down on vehicle miles and curb fuel costs. I only come home every couple of weeks from my jobsite. I am going to start using Amtrak. The cost of a round trip is half the cost of a round trip in the truck. Only two problems...one I have to travel on Amtrak's schedule, and number two I have to leave work early on Friday to catch the train:rolleyes::D It takes about the same amount of time as driving and I don't have to deal with the morons on the interstates. I am still working on trying to cycle commute to work. It is 9 miles from the hotel to the jobsite. I can make it there, it is the coming back at the end of the day that won't work due to traffic conditions. The only alternate route adds over 5 miles to the 9 and that is more than I want to ride at the end of a 10+ hour day.
Aaron:)
Just one of the reasons I got rid of my truck before it was too late. I have a feeling it won't be long before it gets extremely difficult to sell a vehicle that only gets 15mpg!
A lot of the problems people are having now are things they brought upon themselves. If a person is borrowing money for a huge plasma television, well that's his business but I'd say he has his priorities severly mixed up. One of my coworkers pays $130 a month for cable TV, drives an SUV, lives 18 miles from work, and has a wife and two children. If that were me I'd be making some major lifestyle changes as quickly as possible.
A lot of the problems other people are having now are not brought on by their own actions. Have you lived within your means, stayed out of debt, and saved ? You will still be damaged by the hyper-inflation that is now underway. A good deal of the inflation is the result of the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air to try and restart the pyramid scheme that was the housing bubble. If you lived frugally, you now get to pay for your neighbor's McMansion, suv, and big-screen home theater system that he couldn't quite afford.
A lot of the problems other people are having now are not brought on by their own actions. Have you lived within your means, stayed out of debt, and saved ? You will still be damaged by the hyper-inflation that is now underway. A good deal of the inflation is the result of the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air to try and restart the pyramid scheme that was the housing bubble. If you lived frugally, you now get to pay for your neighbor's McMansion, suv, and big-screen home theater system that he couldn't quite afford.
There are fewer villains here than one might imagine. The frightening inflation we are currently experiencing is really a simple matter of math: People want stuff. A lot of people. The amount of stuff is limited. Unfortunately, some of that limited stuff includes basics, like food and clean water, as even a casual glance at the headlines will confirm. In this situation, the Fed is almost irrelevant. Despite the frantic efforts of the Fed to make things better, our choices are few, and very stark: We can resign ourselves to a lower standard of living, we can take measures to dramatically lower population growth, or we can do what we're doing now, which is to extract resources at a completely unsustainable rate until the whole system collapses and nature corrects the situation for us. There's no nefarious plan here. It's just a bunch of mostly good, moderately intelligent, yet deeply flawed humans being greedy on a planet with finite resources.
A lot of the problems other people are having now are not brought on by their own actions. Have you lived within your means, stayed out of debt, and saved ? You will still be damaged by the hyper-inflation that is now underway. A good deal of the inflation is the result of the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air to try and restart the pyramid scheme that was the housing bubble. If you lived frugally, you now get to pay for your neighbor's McMansion, suv, and big-screen home theater system that he couldn't quite afford.
I agree, that's why I didn't say "all of the problems people are having were brought on by themselves."
A. If you lived frugally, you now get to pay for your neighbor's McMansion, suv, and big-screen home theater system that he couldn't quite afford.
Forced frugality for me in the 1970s; leaves me very happy, debt free, mortgage free, subsidized due to low income, etc., yet I can snap up a recumbent trike easily. It is very sad about housing, employment, Harley Davidson, energy in general- the world falling apart; yet people could not even pay me enough to get a McMansion, any gas hog, plasma TV,
BUT
I have kind of a perverse sense of humor watching oil rise 115, 116, 117.....
countersTrike
I have to say I am very surprised to learn that you own an SUV.
Yes, I know. To say that one owns an suv here is like admitting to being a child molster. :eek:
It's bad.;);)
There's a couple featured in this article (http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1208314533290870.xml&coll=7) who would benefit from getting rid of one car and using bikes more on so many levels...
The people in this article were very much like a lot of people I hang out with. (Michigan has been in the recession longer than some other locations, I guess.) People do make bad choices, but often those bad choices--especially about buying overpriced houses--were approved by the financial "experts" over the last 5 or 10 years. I don't understand the one couple paying $1200 for rent, and having two cars but using only one. I have more admiration for the last woman, who lives on a smaller income but does some gardening and lives in a low rent situation. She, like all the people in the story, owns a car. That is something that very few people think of when they're trying to cut back on expenses.
The people in this article were very much like a lot of people I hang out with. (Michigan has been in the recession longer than some other locations, I guess.) People do make bad choices, but often those bad choices--especially about buying overpriced houses--were approved by the financial "experts" over the last 5 or 10 years. I don't understand the one couple paying $1200 for rent, and having two cars but using only one. I have more admiration for the last woman, who lives on a smaller income but does some gardening and lives in a low rent situation. She, like all the people in the story, owns a car. That is something that very few people think of when they're trying to cut back on expenses.
It is true, financial experts and related parties dropped the ball on this one. But it is still pretty amazing how little research people do before going into this sort of thing. I am about to buy a new bike and I have been researching for the past couple of weeks, while people buying a house worth 250x the cost of my potential bike just sign the dotted line.
I have more admiration for the last woman, who lives on a smaller income but does some gardening and lives in a low rent situation. She, like all the people in the story, owns a car. That is something that very few people think of when they're trying to cut back on expenses.
Yeah, I admired her pluck, too, Roody. I wish she'd get some help in applying for food stamps. She's sure paid into the system for such a small amount, and Oregon's application is far easier than most states (not that it's simple - none of them are). I kind of wish I knew her - I'd offer to help. It could help stretch her budget a long way even though it isn't much.
Yeah, I admired her pluck, too, Roody. I wish she'd get some help in applying for food stamps. She's sure paid into the system for such a small amount, and Oregon's application is far easier than most states (not that it's simple - none of them are). I kind of wish I knew her - I'd offer to help. It could help stretch her budget a long way even though it isn't much.
Food stamps seem to cover much less than they used to. Years ago, it seemed like a person or family could actually buy enough with food stamps to stay alive, if they were careful and prudent. I know a mother of 3, her only income is disability, and she gets only $43 a month in food stamps. If you're very frugal, that might buy food for four people for two days. By no stretch of the imagination will it buy food for a month. But many people begrudge even these small amounts to the poor and sick people who have few alternatives.
BTW, this woman has a minivan that she bought with some inherited money. She feels she must have a vehicle. Considering that she lives in one of the few subsidized apartments in the area, and that's almost 10 miles outside the city, even I (the carfree fanatic) can't think of good alternatives for her car.
OR's food stamp allotment is a bit more generous. I know about where she lives. The public transit's actually pretty good. She must work in one of those snafu areas where it take 3 busses to get there.
Exactly. People seem to have really short memories when it comes to recessions. This current recession is cake (so far) compared with the late 70's, and the late 80's.
I remember the late 80's housing crash when the mortgage rates were in the double digits AND it was required to put at least 20% down. A lot of people lost a lot of money, just like today. And yet just like every recession, people might have been pinched a bit, but most overall did just fine.
People will adjust to both the high price of gas and the crashing dollar. In some ways it will be bad, in other ways it will be good.
Right on, bizzz111. Our grandchildren are going to look at us years from now and ask why our family didn't buy the whole state of Minnesota when we had a chance with low-priced real-estate and super cheap loans available.
I sure DO remember 12% interest rates on homes. I remember graduating from the University in the eighties and spending 6 months looking for a job - typing letters every day, all day. Making phone calls and wondering how I was going to pay for all the long-distance charges. I remember being one of the first of my graduating friends to get a job even after six months.
I remember when disco died and we thought that the world would end then too, but it didn't.
Who is it that writes articles about how bad the economy is? Are these teen writers with no perspective of where we came from? These are FAT times. These are some of the richest times ever for the average American. In "the good old days", politicians like Hoover lured voters with the promise of "a chicken in every pot" in a time when chicken for the family was a luxury and beef was nearly unheard of. Today, people complain because they are tired of eating chicken all the time.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. I am sure that we are heading into hyper-inflation times; probably similar to the stagflation we experienced in the '70's. Remember what happened in the '70's? We had hyper increases in oil & gas prices (due to politics and conflict in the Middle-East; ie the Yom Kipper War). At the same time, the USA pulled out of the Brenton-Woods Accord which had set the dollar value and the USA dollar value plunged. Meanwhile, the federal government had to start to face the enormous costs of a foreign war that had been going on for eight years (Vietnam). Sound familiar?
I am not worried about it, though. I lived through it once and I will live through it again. I just wish Dad was filling my bowl with puffed rice cereal and keeping canvas sneakers on my feet like he did then. Heh heh. Now I understand why Dad was complaining all the time about Nixon and Gerald Ford. ...like when Nixon suggested corporations to self-impose wage freezes and my Dad didn't get a raise for several years. You think today's presidents are unpopular, imagine if today's president addressed the nation's industrial leaders and asked them to freeze wages while prices were skyrocketing! Thats' what happened in the '70's. Gasoline prices doubled and other prices raced up too - while wages were flatlined. Pass the white bread please...
Mike
I agree with you...but corporations have already frozen wages, reduced wages, offshored jobs, cut staffing...etc.
My wife is in the airline industry, her pay is 35% LOWER than it was in 2000 and they were coming off of a 5 year contract run that only gave them a 4% raise. So she has been rolled back to what she was making in the early '90s with inflation thrown in for good luck. Obviously the government wants everyone to think they are doing a super job so they soft pedal the numbers. From a street level view it is getting worse, and unfortunately it is the lowest economic classes that feel it first and it works up hill from there. I live in a low wealth section of the country, we were among the first to feel the effects of off shoring manufacturing jobs, and now the run up in fuel and food costs.
Yes people need to learn to make better choices, cut back and quick treating everything as an entitlement.
Aaron:)
Mike
I agree with you...but corporations have already frozen wages, reduced wages, offshored jobs, cut staffing...etc.
My wife is in the airline industry, her pay is 35% LOWER than it was in 2000 and they were coming off of a 5 year contract run that only gave them a 4% raise. So she has been rolled back to what she was making in the early '90s with inflation thrown in for good luck. Obviously the government wants everyone to think they are doing a super job so they soft pedal the numbers. From a street level view it is getting worse, and unfortunately it is the lowest economic classes that feel it first and it works up hill from there. I live in a low wealth section of the country, we were among the first to feel the effects of off shoring manufacturing jobs, and now the run up in fuel and food costs.
Yes people need to learn to make better choices, cut back and quick treating everything as an entitlement.
Aaron:)
Ouch! Sorry to hear about that Aaron. So, maybe we are repeating history exactly. What I find interesting is the reports that we are only experiencing 4% inflation. That sure doesn't jibe with what I am seeing with my expenses.
Mike
I agree with you...but corporations have already frozen wages, reduced wages, offshored jobs, cut staffing...etc.
My wife is in the airline industry, her pay is 35% LOWER than it was in 2000 and they were coming off of a 5 year contract run that only gave them a 4% raise. So she has been rolled back to what she was making in the early '90s with inflation thrown in for good luck. Obviously the government wants everyone to think they are doing a super job so they soft pedal the numbers. From a street level view it is getting worse, and unfortunately it is the lowest economic classes that feel it first and it works up hill from there. I live in a low wealth section of the country, we were among the first to feel the effects of off shoring manufacturing jobs, and now the run up in fuel and food costs.
Yeah, airlines in particular are in a tough spot these days with the fuel costs bumping up the way they are.
Yeah, airlines in particular are in a tough spot these days with the fuel costs bumping up the way they are.
Also in a tough spot due to greedy and poor management. Her salary cutback occurred under bankruptcy in 2002 when the airline management attempt to subvert their contracts, but didn't take any paycuts themselves. They are still working under the contract that was forced on them during the second bankruptcy...but that is another whole issue.
Somewhere I saw a website dealing with reality inflation, it was based on a whole range of product that the average person buys, things like tennis shoes, a pound of hamburger, a gallon of gas, a galon of milk, a pair of jeans, t-shirts, car tires, etc. According to that particular website we have been pushing double digit inflation for the past 20 years.
Aaron:)
The middle class of America is getting severely squeezed. Most people are fortunate to get a cost of living raise, and typically they are based on the government numbers. If you take a job making $10 an hour and only get cost of living raises, you aren't gaining any ground. I worked for one company that did just that didn't take me long to figure out that it was big time dead end. We never got merit raises or bonuses either, and fringe benefits were minimal. Unfortunately that seems to be the way of big business today. Also with the rise of the big box retailer(s) (and not just WM) we have seen a reduction/stagnation in the earning power of the retail and service industry wages. With the shift in employment from manufacturing to service jobs contributing to the overall slide. What I for the life of me cannot fathom is how local tax bases can think that WM paying 400 people $8.50 an hour minimum wage is going to replace a manufacturer that had over 2000 employees making $14 an hour average. The loss in the tax base is staggering, but it happens every day in this part of the country as well as others. Roody lives in a city that has watched it's manufacturing jobs and living standard continue to slide. I have no clue where this is headed, but it does not bode well for the US economy. I think that we are/will see history repeat itself...
Aaron:)
Ouch! Sorry to hear about that Aaron. So, maybe we are repeating history exactly. What I find interesting is the reports that we are only experiencing 4% inflation. That sure doesn't jibe with what I am seeing with my expenses.
Mine either...We kind of saw it coming. But we have always lived below our means and pay cash for just about everything. No mortgage, no car payments, etc. Only recurring payment we currently have other than groceries and utilities is property tax and those are very reasonable. We also strive for a 20% savings rate, only buy very durable goods quite often used or are considered antiques:D
Aaron:)
Mine either...We kind of saw it coming. But we have always lived below our means and pay cash for just about everything. No mortgage, no car payments, etc. Only recurring payment we currently have other than groceries and utilities is property tax and those are very reasonable. We also strive for a 20% savings rate, only buy very durable goods quite often used or are considered antiques:D
Aaron:)
I guess you follow the same philosophy with other goods that you do with your bikes. :)
It sounds like you're weathering the storm because you didn't "do the research" or follow the conventional wisdom that said we should go into big debt with low interest loans and spend, spend, spend to shore up the economy. Those who did the research aren't faring as well right now.
I guess you follow the same philosophy with other goods that you do with your bikes. :)
It sounds like you're weathering the storm because you didn't "do the research" or follow the conventional wisdom that said we should go into big debt with low interest loans and spend, spend, spend to shore up the economy. Those who did the research aren't faring as well right now.
Well Roody...except for the bikes:p Actually I am pretty conservative on my bike expenditures, even though I have a sizable collection. I added up what I spent on bikes over the last couple of years and it still comes in under what most people spend in a couple of months on car payments and upkeep. The new bike I just ordered only cost what I sucked down in diesel fuel in my truck in the past 5 weeks:eek: Fortunately that is paid for by the company I work for...otherwise I would be driving something else or working somewhere else!
About 6 years ago we were going to buy a nice house in a nice section of town, but we both travel extensively. We looked at the amount of money involved and said "why"? We only spend maybe 80 days a year at home. We just kept the small house on the farm and spent some money on updates and decor. Glad now we did.
Aaron:)
I guess you follow the same philosophy with other goods that you do with your bikes. :)
It sounds like you're weathering the storm because you didn't "do the research" or follow the conventional wisdom that said we should go into big debt with low interest loans and spend, spend, spend to shore up the economy. Those who did the research aren't faring as well right now.
This post is very confusing. Are you implying that doing research before making decisions is a bad idea?
This post is very confusing. Are you implying that doing research before making decisions is a bad idea?
Well, research probably doesn't do as much good as people think.
Not to pick on just one network, but the NPR finance programs like Sound Money and the Motley Fool advised listeners to invest heavily in the stock market and real estate, even if it meant going into debt or not paying off debt. Bankers, Wall St. and paid financial advisers were telling folks the same things:
"Real estate NEVER goes down."
"Historically, the stock market has ALWAYS gone up in value."
"Interest rates are so low it's like they're giving the money away."
"By the time your mortgage payment goes up, you'll just sell the house for a nice profit, or refinance."
Some of those who did the research and followed this "expert" advice are regretting it now. Those, like Aaron, who followed common sense have had the last laugh.
the things that hurt ARE that the Recurring costs went up.
round here, at least.
subway fare and utilities being the main concerns for a person who does not own a car
like me. Rent goes up with every lease agreement.
would it get as bad as the history channel show on bonnie and clyde days?
In some ways I hope so.
This post is very confusing. Are you implying that doing research before making decisions is a bad idea?
Nothing is wrong with research but draw your own conclusions and don't necessarily buy into the latest and greatest investment advice. For years and years it has always been said that a house is great "investment"...maybe or maybe not depending on your circumstances. Obviously not for the people that got sucked up in the sub prime mess. Also people insisted on taking out home equity loans to buy stuff they didn't really need and now are stuck...big time. We own our land and homes free and clear, other than the property tax and insurance payments we have no recurring costs associated with our homes. We are very fortunate in that respect, but we chose to make the commitment. There is an interesting little thing called a budget, very few people have any clue how it works or even want to know...including the US Government:rolleyes: I make a pretty decent salary for what I do, but that doesn't mean I run out and buy a Rolex and a BMW (many of my coworkers do just that) I much prefer a Ford and a Timex. One is a status symbol the other does the same job for a lot less money. I have never bought into keeping up with the Joneses..
Aaron:)
Nothing is wrong with research but draw your own conclusions and don't necessarily buy into the latest and greatest investment advice. For years and years it has always been said that a house is great "investment"...maybe or maybe not depending on your circumstances. Obviously not for the people that got sucked up in the sub prime mess. Also people insisted on taking out home equity loans to buy stuff they didn't really need and now are stuck...big time.
Aaron:)
According to a columnist at Slate.com (http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/pagenum/2/), The PRIME mortgage borrowers will be the next big victims/perpetrators of the housing bubble/credit crunch:
Here Comes the Next Mortgage Crisis
Subprime was just the beginning. Wait until California's prime borrowers start handing their keys to the bank.
By Mark Gimein
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008, at 8:12 AM ET
[....]
But prime borrowers, too, got loans that started out with low payments; if you bought or refinanced your house in the last few years, it's not unlikely that you have one. With an "option ARM" loan you have the "option" (which most borrowers happily take) of paying less than the interest; the magic of "negative amortization." The loan grows until you hit a specified point—the exact point varies with the lender; with Countrywide, it'll come after about four and a half years—when the payment resets to close to twice where it was on Day 1.
[....]
Option ARM loans were heavily marketed to upper-tier home buyers in California. It's hard to know how bad the option ARM crisis will be before it actually happens, but Moe Bedard, an advocate in Southern California who advises homeowners on foreclosure and blogs about the crisis at Loansafe.org says that the difference in the time until the rate rises is the main reason that upper-middle-class Orange County (now facing foreclosures at a rate merely twice the national average) hasn't yet been hit as badly as places like Riverside.
[....]
Bet on this: Whatever moral qualms are being urged on borrowers to keep them from walking away from their mortgages, they'll count for a lot less than the economic reality facing borrowers whose homes have fallen in value by half. Lenders had no reservations about selling borrowers loans with rising payments that would be poisonous in a rising market. Now it seems borrowers have no reservations about leaving those lenders with the risks they begged to take.
[....]
Well, research probably doesn't do as much good as people think.
Not to pick on just one network, but the NPR finance programs like Sound Money and the Motley Fool advised listeners to invest heavily in the stock market and real estate, even if it meant going into debt or not paying off debt. Bankers, Wall St. and paid financial advisers were telling folks the same things:
"Real estate NEVER goes down."
"Historically, the stock market has ALWAYS gone up in value."
"Interest rates are so low it's like they're giving the money away."
"By the time your mortgage payment goes up, you'll just sell the house for a nice profit, or refinance."
Some of those who did the research and followed this "expert" advice are regretting it now. Those, like Aaron, who followed common sense have had the last laugh.
For this month I find chart #4 in the GenRe: Reflections is interesting. Normally the best cost of shelter fluctuates between renting and owning. So in normal times, the cost of rental and the cost of buying is comparable, there are good deals in both directions. Look at chart 4, it shows this to be the case, in some years the average is one way or the other but they are close to the same level. But look at the right hand side, the last few years, when the "investment" advisers were telling people they couldn't go wrong with buying- it looks like it was probably impossible to go right by buying.
http://www.genre.com/page/0,,ref=PublicationsReflections-en,00.html
I'm not responding to Roody particularly in this post just adding to the several posts referring to houses and the slick talking financial experts who steer people wrong.
For this month I find chart #4 in the GenRe: Reflections is interesting. Normally the best cost of shelter fluctuates between renting and owning. So in normal times, the cost of rental and the cost of buying is comparable, there are good deals in both directions. Look at chart 4, it shows this to be the case, in some years the average is one way or the other but they are close to the same level. But look at the right hand side, the last few years, when the "investment" advisers were telling people they couldn't go wrong with buying- it looks like it was probably impossible to go right by buying.
http://www.genre.com/page/0,,ref=PublicationsReflections-en,00.html
I'm not responding to Roody particularly in this post just adding to the several posts referring to houses and the slick talking financial experts who steer people wrong.
What is the title? #4 is about the Patriots.
What is the title? #4 is about the Patriots.
Chart no. 4 in the first reflections link. title is "reflections- house prices"
What is the title? #4 is about the Patriots.
Click on the first or current issue of the newsletter, titled Reflection--House prices. On page 2 of this pdf file is Chart 4, House Prices and Rents, After Inflation.
For this month I find chart #4 in the GenRe: Reflections is interesting. Normally the best cost of shelter fluctuates between renting and owning. So in normal times, the cost of rental and the cost of buying is comparable, there are good deals in both directions. Look at chart 4, it shows this to be the case, in some years the average is one way or the other but they are close to the same level. But look at the right hand side, the last few years, when the "investment" advisers were telling people they couldn't go wrong with buying- it looks like it was probably impossible to go right by buying.
http://www.genre.com/page/0,,ref=PublicationsReflections-en,00.html
I'm not responding to Roody particularly in this post just adding to the several posts referring to houses and the slick talking financial experts who steer people wrong.
But where was this chart a couple years ago when most of the "experts" were telling people to buy the overvalued houses? It was hard to find this kind of information 4 or 5 years ago.
I remember that there actually were a few articles that advised of a housing bubble. I told friends that were buying houses about this overvaluation of real estate, and they told me I was nuts. Now these same friends have lost 30 % of the value of their homes, and almost all of their liquidity. And maybe they're thinking I wasn't so nutty after all!
Yeah I completely agree with what you guys are saying, I just wasn't sure what research you were referring to in the post.
I hope that some people would have ran some basic analysis in their research. Like worst/best case scenario. Like if my interest fluctuates this much, one of us loses a job, housing prices drop, etc; and how does this affect our savings, cash flow, etc.
Good on wahoonc for being fairly financially savvy and respecting a budget!
Now these same friends have lost 30 % of the value of their homes, and almost all of their liquidity. And maybe they're thinking I wasn't so nutty after all!
Depressing stuff, not the kind of thing you want to be right about in the end.
Click on the first or current issue of the newsletter, titled Reflection--House prices. On page 2 of this pdf file is Chart 4, House Prices and Rents, After Inflation.
Thanks. I found it now. Very interesting.
But where was this chart a couple years ago when most of the "experts" were telling people to buy the overvalued houses? It was hard to find this kind of information 4 or 5 years ago.
I remember that there actually were a few articles that advised of a housing bubble. I told friends that were buying houses about this overvaluation of real estate, and they told me I was nuts. Now these same friends have lost 30 % of the value of their homes, and almost all of their liquidity. And maybe they're thinking I wasn't so nutty after all!
Roody, over the years I followed the advice that HUD used to give. In a nutshell it was "You have to live somewhere so the buy or rent decision should be based on cost of suitable shelter." In other words don't use your shelter as a giant poker chip. I've noticed that the rent or buy, for comparable shelter has been pretty much a toss-up over the years, you can find deals if you shop and some years are better for locking in long term shelter costs. A few years ago several friends got the buy bug from the frenzy and I sat them down and went over the costs basically showing them one data point in that graph where the buy decision cost so much more than rent. One just last week thanked me for keeping her out of financial hot water. Another friend who I couldn't talk sense too- "You're nuts I'm going to make so much on this deal I'll retire in two years." Two years later- "Yeah, its gone down on paper but if I can just hold out until the recovery I'll get my money back." Not when he loses his job to a programmer in India.
The worst story I've heard so far is this guy who believed the "Home equity is your money so you may as well enjoy it." line that the bankers were dishing out. He used his home equity loan money to support his drug habit. Of course that led to a job loss. Now the bank will have to write off the loan since the house isn't worth as much as the bank loaned him and he has no option but to walk away. If the government steps in to help this guy we can all take comfort in knowing that they're waging a war on drugs and subsidizing a crackhead and his banker at the same time- with our tax dollars.
Previous -
Top -
Next
Copyright 1999 - 2007
BikeForums.Net - All rights reserved.
Common bike forum topics in clue bicycles, cycling, mountain biking,
cycling jerseys, shorts, socks, shoes and bike equiptment selection.