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bragi
 
I know I recently criticized these kinds of threads recently, but, again, bicycling without any kind of context is the utility forum. So here it is:

I recently read that 1/3 of this year's corn crop, the largest corn crop in the US in a long time, is going to biofuels production. A lot of land that used to be used to grow other crops has been converted to corn production to achieve this result. Given the high price of food and the growing number of starving people in the world, this strikes me as absolutely immoral, if not actually criminal. I have three questions for anyone out there who knows more than me:

1. WTF? Who came up with this insane idea?

2. Who uses all the corn-based ethanol they're apparently so eager to produce? I know a few people who use biodiesel made from used vegetable oil, but not a single person who's ever used corn-based ethanol in their entire lives.

3. What political action can be done to end this evil stupidity? (A recent vote in Congress increased subsidies for biofuels, but ended tax credits for wind and solar, which is perhaps the greatest proof ever that Democrats are at least as stupid, venal and cowardly as their Republican opponents.) I can see some sense in ethanol, if it's made from plants that can be grown on marginal land, but corn? It's not even a very efficient source of energy. This has got to be one of the greatest pork projects in history.


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Pompeno
 
2. Here in Iowa, the cheapest gas is a 10% ethanol blend. Sadly, I use it everyday.


gerv
 
2. Who uses all the corn-based ethanol they're apparently so eager to produce? I know a few people who use biodiesel made from used vegetable oil, but not a single person who's ever used corn-based ethanol in their entire lives.



About every driver in the midWest fills their gas tank with a 15% ethanol concoction. I hear there are some stations selling E85, which is 85% ethanol. The going price for E85 is about $2.60 gallon while the above E15 is about $3.60.

Expect to see more action on the ethanol front until someone finally figures out that it actually costs more than gasoline to produce... especially if reckon that $2.60 ethanol and hamburgers that have suddenly skyrocketed in price are all paid from the same pocket.


onetrack
 
1. big agro-buisness

E-85 average price per gallon is 3.23. Sounds cheap till you factor in its energy content. E-85 has fewer BTU's (british thermal units) the average price one you consider the energy content vs gasoline is at 4.25
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/


JeffS
 
Political action is the primary cause of ethanol use in the first place. It's a shame that of all the things we could have chosen to subsidize, we picked one of the least sustainable options. The farm lobby is again proving its strength -- at least in their support for the corporate farmer.

I haven't followed closely, but know that Texas has been unhappy with the ethanol mandates for various reasons, despite being one of the largest consumers. My first reaction was to think that they must have some sensible officials there. Of course, I then remembered where our oil companies are based - that and all the cattle producers. I believe their initial complaint was increased NOx emissions in non-fortified ethanol and now it mainly seems to be the increase in food prices.

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/divisions/press/files/O-JohnsonStephen20080425.pdf

I suppose that he's reached the "correct" conclusion is more important than the motive behind it.


mike
 
Hey man, ethanol is YOUR tax dollars at work. $0.52 per gallon ethanol blending credit. Yaaa, that's right. YOUR tax dollars are going to the bijillionaire fuel companies so that they can convert food to fuel at a net energy loss.

Take away the $0.52/gallon tax incentive and suddenly ethanol isn't so fun anymore.

YOUR tax dollars are being used in a way to drive UP the cost of the food you eat, but at least fuel costs are down.... hey wait a minute... fuel prices are UP? AND Food prices are up?! Who did the math for this one??


wahoonc
 
Answers: (as I see them)

1) Farm lobby (it certainly wasn't the environmentalists)

2) My understanding is that ethanol is being used in fuel blends (as pointed out) as well as the E-85 that will burn in flex vehicles. FWIW the only station within a 50 mile radius of me that was selling E-85 closed up shop a few weeks ago. E-85 was being pushed as being "patriotic" because it used American grown corn versus the evil Arab Oil...very short sighted and expensive (to the taxpayers) policy.

3) Kick everybody out of Washington and start over with politicians that aren't in the pocket of big business.

Aaron:)


CrimsonEclipse
 
Don't discard all biofuels yet.
There are several programs using algae with power plant exhaust (likely coal)
to produce bio-diesel. The output per acre is 50-200x that of corn.

CE


Roody
 
2. Here in Michigan, ALL gasoline must contain at least 10 % ethanol.

3. Hint--the farm bill is more important than the energy bill.


YULitle
 
Not ALL biofuel is made from food. Biofuel is being made in my town (my wife is their lab analyst) from previously discarded pig fat. They are also testing ways to make it with chicken fat. This BioDiesel is then mixed with regular diesel to be used in diesel vehicles, without modification. This is also being done in Europe.


mike
 
Not ALL biofuel is made from food. Biofuel is being made in my town (my wife is their lab analyst) from previously discarded pig fat. They are also testing ways to make it with chicken fat. This BioDiesel is then mixed with regular diesel to be used in diesel vehicles, without modification. This is also being done in Europe.

Last I heard, pig fat and chicken fat was edible food.


FXjohn
 
YOUR tax dollars are going to the bijillionaire fuel companies so that they can convert food to fuel at a net energ

Do you eat field corn or consider it food, Mike?


mike
 
Do you eat field corn or consider it food, Mike?

field corn is food. Cattle, pigs, and chickens eat it. And I eat cattle, pigs, and chicken.


FXjohn
 
field corn is food. Cattle, pigs, and chickens eat it. And I eat cattle, pigs, and chicken.

hmm, bugs must be food. chickens eat bugs and you eat chickens.


mike
 
hmm, bugs must be food. chickens eat bugs and you eat chickens.

Yes. Bugs are food and I have eaten those too - on purpose in Thailand and Korea; fried in hot oil with a sprinkle of salt.

Guess what - bugs eat corn too!

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/02/xinsrc_1221104021349687279339.jpg


cerewa
 
Do you eat field corn or consider it food, Mike?

The same fields that are used to grow corn for non peoplefood purposes can be used for corn you would want to eat.


gerv
 
hmm, bugs must be food. chickens eat bugs and you eat chickens.

Interesting logic. I think the answer is that corn is contained in just about every package food we see on our grocery shelves. Take corn out and you are left with... not much!


wahoonc
 
The same fields that are used to grow corn for non peoplefood purposes can be used for corn you would want to eat.

Or wheat and other food crops...

Aaron:)


FXjohn
 
Yes. Bugs are food and I have eaten those too - on purpose in Thailand and Korea; fried in hot oil with a sprinkle of salt.

Guess what - bugs eat corn too!

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/02/xinsrc_1221104021349687279339.jpg

mmm, delicious, huh??


BarracksSi
 
Corn-only ethanol is already old news.


pox
 
It's a mistake, IMO, to conflate ethanol and biodiesel, but it's one the corporate media loves to make. The former is a corporate handout, but the latter has a lot of potential. People are making diesel from algae, and even feeding it waste CO2 from coal plants, allowing us to burn some of that carbon twice.

For a while the corporate media was cheering for "biofuel", meaning ethanol, and now they're telling us "biofuels" are bad, including diesel. I think we're supposed to conclude that there's really no choice but to buy oil from Exxon and subsidize Archer Daniels Midland, leaving no money for research into alternatives. "Well, we tried biofuels, but they didn't work."


wahoonc
 
Most people (courtesy of the media) equate biodiesel with soybeans (ADM/Cargil) which is a shortsighted as the corn for ethanol. It is a bit better in gallons per acre department and it is in many ways a better product than the dino diesel that it replaces. But any fuel supplement/replacement that require arable land for production is not a good choice. And there is no way that I can see that we can produce enough fuel to replace the massive amounts of crude and finished oil products that we import.

Aaron:)


Smallwheels
 
Energy Victory. Check out this book; http://www.energyvictory.net/. It explains exactly how the USA and the world can destroy the OPEC nations grip on the world economies.

If the USA government would mandate that all cars sold in the USA were Flexfuel vehicles capable of running on 100% alcohol (ethanol or methanol) or any combination of gasoline and alcohol, the price of oil would drop to $40-$50 per barrel. Such cars are already manufactured by all auto companies including the ones in the USA. They are sold in Brazil. No new research and development is needed. The technology is already used in millions of cars.

Creating fuel from corn does not raise the price of rice or wheat. It only makes corn more expensive. Sugar cane is a better fuel source. Switch grass and other bio waste products will be fuel sources as soon as scientists improve the energy conversion process.

The amount of unused farm land in the USA is tremendous. With the money incentive created by the Flexfuel mandate those unused lands will be profit sources for more farmers.

This plan will also free poor nations from the high price of oil for fuel because the technology will trickle down to the remainder of the world. It will create a market for fuel production in even the poorest countries. It will give poor farmers a way to earn more money by supplying their own nations needs. Creating alcohol as a fuel will actually help the poorest people on Earth to make their countries stronger and remove the stranglehold oil has over their countries

The mandate will create a boom in auto sales because people will want to purchase cars capable of using cheaper fuel.

Fueling stations will begin switching over to different blends of fuel and eventually have 100% alcohol available. The government already has a tax incentive plan available to gas station owners who want to convert pumps to alcohol.

The Flexfuel mandate is actually an ingenious solution that could be implemented with just a simple regulation signed into law. I have already contacted my representatives about it. I hope they read the book, but I can't make them read it.

There is a video link to a C-span talk by Robert Zubrin about his book Energy Victory at the bottom of the page on http://www.energyvictory.net/.
He goes into detail about why this plan works and why it is in our best strategic interest to mandate all cars sold in the USA have Flexfuel motors.

He says to let the marketplace decide which fuel is wanted by the consumers. Until people worldwide have a choice other than oil there will never be energy freedom. Until cars can run on alternate fuels there won't be a choice. By mandating that cars have Flexfuel capability the world will finally have a choice.

All new cars sold in Brazil must be Flexfuel capable from 2008 onward.

Robert Zubrin also shows that conservation of energy will not bring down the price of oil. In his video he shows a graph of exactly why that is.

He addresses the claim by only one scientist that it takes more energy to produce alcohol fuels than they put out. He shows that most other scientists disagree with that claim.

All of the arguments I've read here and elsewhere that are against alcohol as a fuel are addressed satisfactorily in the video at the C-span site. It has information that you might not know which makes you against alcohol as a fuel source. Please watch it. It is more than an hour long.


bragi
 
Don't discard all biofuels yet.
There are several programs using algae with power plant exhaust (likely coal)
to produce bio-diesel. The output per acre is 50-200x that of corn.

CE

That's exactly the kind of biofuel I can support. Maybe some of us should start writing letters to moveon.org or our representatives in congress? (Not that I have a whole lot of faith in members of congress of either party. Well, maybe that's not true. My impression is that Republicans are greedy, immoral, liars, hypocritical and stupid, whereas Democrats are merely hypocritical and utterly retarded.)


bragi
 
Energy Victory. Check out this book; http://www.energyvictory.net/.

The amount of unused farm land in the USA is tremendous. With the money incentive created by the Flexfuel mandate those unused lands will be profit sources for more farmers.

This plan will also free poor nations from the high price of oil for fuel because the technology will trickle down to the remainder of the world. It will create a market for fuel production in even the poorest countries. It will give poor farmers a way to earn more money by supplying their own nations needs. Creating alcohol as a fuel will actually help the poorest people on Earth to make their countries stronger and remove the stranglehold oil has over their countries

The mandate will create a boom in auto sales because people will want to purchase cars capable of using cheaper fuel.

I'm not sure you've been watching the news lately. There are food riots in more than a few places, partly because of droughts in grain-growing regions, party because Indians and Chinese (nearly 1/3 of the total population of the Earth) now have the means to demand better food, but also because land that once was devoted to food production has been diverted to making fuel. Using food crops like corn to fill gas tanks is incredibly stupid, not to mention morally wrong.

The energy input-output ratio for gasoline is 1:80-200, depending on the source of oil. That means for every calorie of energy you put into producing the gasoline, you get up to 200 calories back. The ratio for corn-based ethanol is 1:1.4. Without the subsidy, no one would be stupid enough to do this. (Biodiesel is a bit better,1:4 or so)

The amount of arable land currently available on this planet is pretty much all there is. (Let's not even get into topsoil losses here.) We have a population that will top out at about 10-11 billion by mid-century, at about the same time that global warming really gets rolling, and oil production starts to actually decline markedly. There's no way in hell that any crop-based biofuels, let alone corn-based ones, are going to save our collective ass*s. We need to re-instate the renewable energy tax credit in a big way, switch to algae-based biofuels, or at least ones made from non-food plants, and embark on a massive energy diet. If we don't do these things, we're pretty much f*cked.


maddyfish
 
[QUOTE=bragi;6676526] Given the high price of food and the growing number of starving people in the world, QUOTE]

Now I don't carer for the corn fuel mess, but "the growing number of starving people in the world" are not our problem. Those people need to eother grow their own or buy their own. Otherwise the can starve. Are we supposed to keep feeding these people forever?


gerv
 
Now I don't carer for the corn fuel mess, but "the growing number of starving people in the world" are not our problem. Those people need to eother grow their own or buy their own. Otherwise the can starve. Are we supposed to keep feeding these people forever?
I guess when you become one of these starving people, your tune may change.


CW Spook
 
1. Ethanol was chosen as an additive to make fuel burn cleaner and with less harmful emissions than MTBE which it replaced. Of course it was encouraged by the large agri-industry firms, just as MTBE was pushed by the oil industry and the chemical companies. What do you suppose the by-product of corn-based ethanol production is? It's called distillers grain, which is used as livestock feed, just as unprocessed corn is. Very little field corn is used for direct human consumption.

2. Who uses it? You've gotta be kidding right? Only a huge percentage of the gas-powered vehicles in a very large portion of the United States.

3. Why would you want to? Increased food costs have next to nothing to do with ethanol production and much to do with an increasing standard of living in India, China, and SE Asia, as well as gross governmental mismanagement in poorer countries like Myanmar and Zimbabwe. An improved standard of living in third-world countries has led to an increased demand for more and better food, petroleum powered vehicles, and other consumer goods. The concomitant increased demand for oil has driven up the price of oil as well as production and distribution costs everywhere, raising the price of the end-product. Economics 101.


YULitle
 
Last I heard, pig fat and chicken fat was edible food.

Last I read (my post, that is,) I said that they were previously just discarding it.


bragi
 
3. Why would you want to? Increased food costs have next to nothing to do with ethanol production and much to do with an increasing standard of living in India, China, and SE Asia, as well as gross governmental mismanagement in poorer countries like Myanmar and Zimbabwe. An improved standard of living in third-world countries has led to an increased demand for more and better food, petroleum powered vehicles, and other consumer goods. The concomitant increased demand for oil has driven up the price of oil as well as production and distribution costs everywhere, raising the price of the end-product. Economics 101.

Now you've got to be kidding. You can't possibly imagine that biofuel subsidies have little or nothing to do with suddenly increased prices for food. It doesn't take a genius to figure out cause and effect in this case. It's true that increased demand for higher-quality food in Asia has contributed to the problem, along with droughts in Australia and Russia. But it's not like demand for bread in China suddenly increased dramatically at the same time that biofuel subsidies kicked in, making the biofuels issue pale into insignificance by comparison. In the last 18-24 months, the only variable that has changed so dramatically is biofuels production. Bottom line: people in Egypt are rioting over the price of bread so people in Missouri can pay 30 cents less for gas for their trucks.


bragi
 
[QUOTE=bragi;6676526] Given the high price of food and the growing number of starving people in the world, QUOTE]

Now I don't carer for the corn fuel mess, but "the growing number of starving people in the world" are not our problem. Those people need to eother grow their own or buy their own. Otherwise the can starve. Are we supposed to keep feeding these people forever?

I don't know how to respond to this. (actually, I do, but for the sake of civility, I won't.)


Smallwheels
 
Only one third of the farmland in the USA is being used at this time.

When all cars sold in the USA have Flexfuel motors alcohol will become more widely available. When this happens OPEC will drop their oil prices dramatically. The lower fuel prices will make food production cost much less than it does now. In the long run it will benefit the poor nations and rich nations alike. Alcohol fuel will allow poor nations to keep their money within their own countries instead of sending it to members of OPEC.

With a huge demand for alcohol created by a Flexfuel mandate many alternative sources of alcohol will appear. It can be made from many forms of waste. Cellulose is a source for it. Even coal can be converted to methanol. There are other types of alcohol too such as butanol and propanol.

Watching the video lecture about this topic really does answer many concerns about alcohol as a fuel source. Overall it really benefits poor nations economies by huge amounts. It will almost instantly raise their standards of living.


cerewa
 
Only one third of the farmland in the USA is being used at this time.

I hadn't heard this before. Where did you hear it?


East Hill
 
I hadn't heard this before. Where did you hear it?

Yes, please give us a source for this.

At least some of the farmland in the US is being fallowed. At least some of the farmland in the US has no water to be able to grow crops.

Even more farmland now grows houses.

East Hill


Roody
 
1. Ethanol was chosen as an additive to make fuel burn cleaner and with less harmful emissions than MTBE which it replaced. Of course it was encouraged by the large agri-industry firms, just as MTBE was pushed by the oil industry and the chemical companies. What do you suppose the by-product of corn-based ethanol production is? It's called distillers grain, which is used as livestock feed, just as unprocessed corn is. Very little field corn is used for direct human consumption.

2. Who uses it? You've gotta be kidding right? Only a huge percentage of the gas-powered vehicles in a very large portion of the United States.

3. Why would you want to? Increased food costs have next to nothing to do with ethanol production and much to do with an increasing standard of living in India, China, and SE Asia, as well as gross governmental mismanagement in poorer countries like Myanmar and Zimbabwe. An improved standard of living in third-world countries has led to an increased demand for more and better food, petroleum powered vehicles, and other consumer goods. The concomitant increased demand for oil has driven up the price of oil as well as production and distribution costs everywhere, raising the price of the end-product. Economics 101.

This post has more holes in it than my oldest pair of bike shorts. But I want to concentrate on the statements I put in bold, because they reflect the worst sort of thinking that has dominated American policy for many years.

The plain fact is, the US has used an overwhelmingly large portion of world resources--both energy and food--for many decades. We are to blame, largely, for peak oil, global warming, and the past and current food crises. Even now, the Chinese and Indians have a long way to go before they catch up to us on calorie consumption per capita. In fact, they will NEVER catch up with us, no matter how fast they increase consumption rates. The stuff will be gone, 90% of it used up by western nations, long before they reach our levels of consumption.


Roody
 
Do you eat field corn or consider it food, Mike?

Corn is the largest source of calories in the US human diet after wheat. We eat it directly in the form of high fructose corn syrup (found in almost every processed food made) as well as in our meat, chicken, eggs, milk and even farm-raised catfish. It's a source of many food additives also, including modified corn starch and other widely used thickeners. Corn oil is also a very popular fat in America and other countries.

You might want to see the documentary King Corn or read Michael Pollan's last couple books if you're interested in a more realistic view of the role corn plays in the American diet and the American economy.


Roody
 
Yes, please give us a source for this.

At least some of the farmland in the US is being fallowed. At least some of the farmland in the US has no water to be able to grow crops.

Even more farmland now grows houses.

East Hill

I think the poster meant to say that only one-third of the arable land is currently being farmed. Much of the land is instead being used for shopping malls, parking lots and highways, for example.


Smallwheels
 
Tonight (Tuesday May 20, 2008) on the Coast to Coast AM radio show Robert Zubrin the author of "Energy Victory" will be talking about using alcohol and Flexfuel vehicles to end our energy dependence on foreign oil.

Go to www.coasttocoastam.com to find a local station that broadcasts this show.

I'm sure he will go into great detail about his plan. The show is four hours long. The guests usually come on in the second hour and stay for the next three hours.

Many local radio stations also stream the show via the internet. If you don't have a local broadcaster just search the affiliates and find one that streams it.

If you miss the show you can subscribe to their stream-link service and listen to the archived version of it.

Many radio stations around the country rebroadcast the show the next day beginning two to three hours before the live show. That makes it possible for people who must go to bed early to listen to the show.


bragi
 
Tonight (Tuesday May 20, 2008) on the Coast to Coast AM radio show Robert Zubrin the author of "Energy Victory" will be talking about using alcohol and Flexfuel vehicles to end our energy dependence on foreign oil.

Go to www.coasttocoastam.com to find a local station that broadcasts this show.

I'm sure he will go into great detail about his plan. The show is four hours long. The guests usually come on in the second hour and stay for the next three hours.

Many local radio stations also stream the show via the internet. If you don't have a local broadcaster just search the affiliates and find one that streams it.

If you miss the show you can subscribe to their stream-link service and listen to the archived version of it.

Many radio stations around the country rebroadcast the show the next day beginning two to three hours before the live show. That makes it possible for people who must go to bed early to listen to the show.

Will you stop already? Biofuels may be a good supplement to our energy palette, if they're made from plants that aren't part of the food supply. But they will never replace oil by themselves. Making fuel from corn should be out of the question. Any acreage that is devoted to fuel production instead of food, given current circumstances, is simply immoral.

Look at the facts, do the math, and, for God's sake, start thinking for yourself.


Smallwheels
 
Will you stop already? Biofuels may be a good supplement to our energy palette, if they're made from plants that aren't part of the food supply. But they will never replace oil by themselves. Making fuel from corn should be out of the question. Any acreage that is devoted to fuel production instead of food, given current circumstances, is simply immoral.

Look at the facts, do the math, and, for God's sake, start thinking for yourself.


Alcohol can come from many sources other than food crops. Our largest potential for alcohol is from coal. The U.S.A. has huge coal supplies.

Methanol can come from garbage, agricultural waste, farm animal waste, and invasive algae species that are clogging up many lakes and rivers in our country.

The current prices of oil are affecting poor nations way more than first world nations. Until there is a worldwide choice for liquid fuels to power vehicles and machinery the prices of oil will not come down ever! Todays high prices are doing more to destroy poor nations than anything else. When vehicles can be powered by alcohol in addition to oil, poor nations will survive better.

I don't want people to starve. The little bit of land being used for alcohol production is not contributing much to the prices of corn nor is it causing the prices of non corn crops to go up. That is happening due to speculators in the commodities markets.

The sooner alcohol fuel is widely available the sooner oil prices will drop. That drop in prices will do more for saving lives than ending the use of farmland to grow non food crops.

Until there is an incentive for the OPEC nations to drop their prices they won't do it. The creation of competition will require them to drop their oil prices. Within a couple of years after the USA passes a law mandating all cars sold in the USA have flexfuel motors the price of oil will drop to about $40.00 per barrel.

The USA will spend $1 trillion dollars on fuel this year. If just half of that was being spent on USA created fuel our economy would be booming.
Imagine all of that money going to fuels produced in the USA.


freeimprov
 
Does anyone here do math? Or have an engineering background? The sad part about biofuel (and electric car) discussions is the gross innumeracy usually involved.

The factors are pretty simple, really. There is a limited amount of arable land. The arable land itself has limited water supply (how limited varies). There is a limited number of people who need fed. Once you've produced enough food to feed everyone, the leftover land can be used for biofuel production. These numbers are largely fixed and can't be tweaked.

Now, of the land that can be used for biofuels, it can produce a limited amount of useful biomass per acre. There is an energy input cost for plowing, fertilization, harvesting, etc. And then there's a conversion energy cost for turning that raw biomass into a useful biofuel form (diesel, ethanol, charcoal, gas, etc). Finally, there's a use efficiency for whatever it is you're doing with your biofuel energy. Now, despite what the Texas algae baron and others will tell you, there are NOT going to be tremendous differences in productivity from one biofuel form to the next... maybe an order of magnitude, but not the 200x efficiency he's claiming. You only have so much air and water and sunlight per acre, and conversion costs can't be avoided.

Without sticking hard numbers into it, what this DOES tell us is that there is some calculable maximum global productivity of biofuels. We won't be able to produce more than that and still feed people. Will it affect food costs? Of course. But food costs are at historic lows right now - people aren't going to starve over this; it'll just change the economic balance and how people spend their money.

Now, food costs are tied to the REAL rub... Green Revolution agricultural techniques. Mechanized farming and extensive fertilization for worldwide use started in the 1960s. Since then, the human population has DOUBLED. But Green Revolution farming is very energy-intensive. It depends on massive tractor and fertilizer use. So converting to a lower-intensity farming approach will reduce the food supply for real. And then comes the other rub... Peak Oil. We are near or maybe at peak global oil production already; at some point, it'll go into inevitable decline. Within maybe our lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes, or our grandchildren's lives, there will simply be no accessible petroleum left.

What this means is that petroleum-powered Green Revolution agriculture MUST come to an end, within the next century. That means we can no longer support the population we're supporting now. And that's scary. Fuel for mechanized farming will need to come from biofuels, which will need to come from arable farmland - and those can't be GR-farmed, either!

So if you think about it, population is the biggest problem. And it's not a question of IF we'll have sustainable farming and energy systems, but when... and how many will die of warfare or famine as we approach the stable point, and how much civilization might be lost.

And what does this mean for global warming? It means that we'll burn through the remaining oil and coal long before our governments can get their acts together and prevent it. Sigh.

At any rate, a global-scale conversion to biofuels and wind/solar/tidal electricity WILL occur, because it cannot not occur. The question is, at what cost? And how can we reduce the price humanity will pay, in blood and treasure?


Smallwheels
 
It has been a while but I have more information about alcohol as a fuel source. Here is a link to an expert on this topic: http://www.alcoholcanbeagas.com/node/490. In case this site changes the link in the future, it is from a page about the book "Alcohol Can Be A Gas" by David Blume. He also has a web site at http://www.permaculture.com. He has been a very successful permaculture farmer earning $100,000.00 per acre. Most farmers don't earn half that amount these days.

The first link is about busting the myths about alcohol as a fuel. There are videos on the site as well as plenty of information on how the USA could totally get off of oil as our transportation fuel source.

It turns out that any car made today can run on 50% alcohol (ethanol) without doing any modifications to it. Some newer cars can run on 100% alcohol or a very high percentage of it. Some car computers won't allow 100% alcohol but they will allow plenty of it. The oxygen sensor is the main hang-up.

Automobile engines optimized for running on alcohol as a fuel actually get BETTER MILEAGE than the same car running on gasoline. Diesel motors can be converted to run on pure alcohol and get 20% more mileage than regular diesel engines. This happens because the octane rating of alcohol is over 100. This means the motors can run much better with very high compression ratios. That means that engines can get more horsepower for the same engine size. What would be better is to make much smaller and lighter motors to be even more economical.

There is a type of tumbleweed in the desert southwest that grows wild and requires NO irrigation or care. This weed can produce more gallons of alcohol per acre than corn.

There is a non-food type of sugar beet that produces three times the amount of alcohol per acre than corn. It doesn't require very much irrigation and can be grown with very little effort.

Acreage used for food would not need to be changed to acreage for fuel even if all of North America switched to alcohol for transportation fuel. There is plenty of acreage in the USA to continue feeding us and donating food to third world nations (if they would take it).

Brazil imports no oil. It is the fifth largest economy and it uses alcohol for its fuel source. Brazil only uses 2% of its farm land for alcohol production AND they export alcohol.

If the USA automotive fleet ran on alcohol instead of oil $700,000,000,000.00 would stay in this country each year instead of going abroad. How many jobs do you think that would create? I think plenty.


Rowan
 
Thank you, Smallwheels.

At my workplace, we are about to start planting trial crops of canola, sunflower and mustard to determine the yields for the property for the given seasonal conditions. It is becoming an interesting exercise. The property's owners are about to produce their first batch of biodiesel, not from cropping, but from recycled restaurant cooking oil. They are doing this in a big way, including use of stainless steel vats. For me, this is an exciting project because of my long-term interest in the theories of alternative fuel production, and now I am on the ground floor, so to speak.

Ostensibly, the project is about powering the machinery on the principals' three or four properties and their truck fleet. Seeing on the property where I work that we use more than AUD$20,000 worth of diesel a year alone for irrigation purposes, the savings can become quite large. Estimates put the production cost (including seed, harvesting and processing) at AUD$1 a litre for biodiesel, but much does depend on crop yield.

And this is something that is forgotten by the armchair experts on what the farming industry should and shouldn't do -- agriculture is a business like any other. And when the revenues from the sale of grains for biofuel production are likely to be substantial and stable, any business person in their right mind is going to take the price, especially if it is higher than that offered by the food industry. It's when the leftists start dictating that farmers *must* grow products for food that things start to fall apart, business-wise.

I believe that the internal combustion engine and motor vehicles will be around for a very long time. There are too many vested interests, too much money and too many jobs at stake worldwide. Sit down with a piece of paper tonight and map out the sub-industries that rely on the motor vehicle industry... start with the miners who get the iron ore out of the ground, right through to the mechanic down the end of the street. Government already provide the car manufacturing industry here in Australia with hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies (including a recent announcement for Toyota to produce a hybrid here), and it won't be long before those subsidies start filtering through to alternative fuels research and production.

The technologies already exist to power motor vehicles with alternatives to petroleum products, but the crunch factor at the moment is the economies of scale needed to make them totally competitive but have not been met yet. In addition, as with all industries, once economies of scale are achieved, R&D becomes a matter of course.

Several DECADES ago, Tasmania, the small island state where I hail from in Australia was offered a proposal to grow sugar beet as a biofuel alternative. Environmentally, it looked attractive even then, but the political masters at the time, in their myopic view of the world, decided that the industry wasn't needed... because there was an endless supply of petroleum. It's rather ironic, actually, because Bill Mollinson, who created the term permaculture, is a Tasmanian.

The reliance of Brazil on alcohol for its motor vehicles has been well known for a long time by those interested in alternative fuel sources. The global sugar industry went through a mighty depression several years ago, and is still struggling, from what I gather. Again, because these farmers are *businesspeople*, the opportunity to grow sugar cane for conversion to alcohol would sustain the industry, and keep fields (at least in Queensland Australia) viable and communities intact.

As to the current and potential starving millions... biofuel production may well be their saviours as the technologies filter down to enable *them* to grow and harvest fuel and feed crops side by side. Remember, too, that in order to feed those people, the food *you* grow for them must be transported to them... how can that be done if there is no fuel to power the vessels? I figure certain parts of Asia and Africa are ripe to be the emerging countries to replace the Middle East as the world's energy bowls (of course, no statistical analysis or somesuch, but a view based on many years observing world events).


maddyfish
 
I know I recently criticized these kinds of threads recently, but, again, bicycling without any kind of context is the utility forum. So here it is:

I recently read that 1/3 of this year's corn crop, the largest corn crop in the US in a long time, is going to biofuels production. A lot of land that used to be used to grow other crops has been converted to corn production to achieve this result. Given the high price of food and the growing number of starving people in the world, this strikes me as absolutely immoral, if not actually criminal.
.

I am not a fan of biofuels. But it is not our responsibility to feed the world. If they can'y buy or grow their own food, too bad. If these starving people would pay more than the bio fuel people for the food, then I have no doubt it would be sold to them.


Sirrus Rider
 
I know I recently criticized these kinds of threads recently, but, again, bicycling without any kind of context is the utility forum. So here it is:

I recently read that 1/3 of this year's corn crop, the largest corn crop in the US in a long time, is going to biofuels production. A lot of land that used to be used to grow other crops has been converted to corn production to achieve this result. Given the high price of food and the growing number of starving people in the world, this strikes me as absolutely immoral, if not actually criminal. I have three questions for anyone out there who knows more than me:

1. WTF? Who came up with this insane idea?

2. Who uses all the corn-based ethanol they're apparently so eager to produce? I know a few people who use biodiesel made from used vegetable oil, but not a single person who's ever used corn-based ethanol in their entire lives.

3. What political action can be done to end this evil stupidity? (A recent vote in Congress increased subsidies for biofuels, but ended tax credits for wind and solar, which is perhaps the greatest proof ever that Democrats are at least as stupid, venal and cowardly as their Republican opponents.) I can see some sense in ethanol, if it's made from plants that can be grown on marginal land, but corn? It's not even a very efficient source of energy. This has got to be one of the greatest pork projects in history.

To solve this insanity follow these suggestions:

1. Vote every single democrap out of office. Republicans will act and correct things if not beat verbally down by the demos.

2. Don't vote Obama. He's marching us towards becoming a communist country.

3. Do not contribute in any way to Al Gore's Religion of Global Warming. He want YOU to give up everything while he continues to live like little Lord Fauntleroy in his Tennessee mansion that burns as much electricity in a month that a person in a 3 bed 2 bath house uses in year.


jomconra
 
I am still looking for the fuel tank on my bike. Keep in mind that the technology for algae, switch grass, or the myriad of other possible candidates for biofuels is not ready. Let alone the technology & infrastructure to harvest, transport, process, and distribute said wonder fuel. We need to support the current effort while allocating funds for research and infrastructure for the future improvements.


Hobartlemagne
 
(A recent vote in Congress increased subsidies for biofuels, but ended tax credits for wind and solar, which is perhaps the greatest proof ever that Democrats are at least as stupid, venal and cowardly as their Republican opponents.)

Agribusiness and the Energy industry make tons more political contributions than electric utility companies do.


maddyfish
 
I guess when you become one of these starving people, your tune may change.

I have 300 acres of my own, currently with 40 leased for soy bean growth. I hunt, I fish, a major river borders my land, and I am highly resourceful. It is highly unlikely that I will ever starve.


gerv
 
I have 300 acres of my own, currently with 40 leased for soy bean growth. I hunt, I fish, a major river borders my land, and I am highly resourceful. It is highly unlikely that I will ever starve.
How do you know that? How do you know you won't at some point be unable to walk or think straight? Most likely if you do survive long enough, you will become infirm in some sense. What will you do then? Will you voluntarily starve? Or will you accept charity?


FXjohn
 
I have 300 acres of my own, currently with 40 leased for soy bean growth. I hunt, I fish, a major river borders my land, and I am highly resourceful. It is highly unlikely that I will ever starve.

something could happen to you where you can't afford to pay your taxes...not your land anymore.


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