View Full Version : They really are driving less!
According to the Federal Highway Administration, traffic volume for March 2008 was down 4.3 per cent compared to March 2007. Note that this is the first time the trend is downward since they started tracking the figures in 1983.
Traffic Volume Trends (pdf) (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/08martvt/08martvt.pdf)
Roody where have you been?
I posted about this on May 23.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...e=domesticNews
Roody where have you been?
I posted about this on May 23.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...e=domesticNews
Sorry, dude. I haven't been online much lately. Too much going on in the real world.
But I have been reading posts here about how Americans won't drive less until gas is at least $8 a gallon. Back in March, when these figures were collected, I think the gas price was "only" about $3.60. does anybody see cause for optimism here?
There seems to be a lot of people out on bicycles. I was at the library tonight and saw 6 bicycles in the rack (usually it's only mine). The rack at work is usually full nowadays and some of them are storing bikes in the foyer.
Of course, everyone is talking and complaining about the price of gas. I figure a few cheapskates like myself are pound to add two and two and realize they had better get out the Bianchi.
Smallwheels
06-11-08, 01:41 AM
OPEC is very concerned about this drop in fuel usage. They have scheduled an emergency meeting for next month. I bet they realize that the longer the higher prices last the more people will permanently use less fuel. If the price increases were very slow and incremental all of society would just adjust to it, thus the number of people using fuel would continue to increase.
If prices continue to go up 35% per year you can bet billions of people worldwide will change their driving habits. That would cause OPEC to loose too much market share.
High oil prices could do more for the environmental movement than all the previous efforts done by government and environmental organizations combined.
OPEC is very concerned about this drop in fuel usage. They have scheduled an emergency meeting for next month. I bet they realize that the longer the higher prices last the more people will permanently use less fuel. If the price increases were very slow and incremental all of society would just adjust to it, thus the number of people using fuel would continue to increase.
If prices continue to go up 35% per year you can bet billions of people worldwide will change their driving habits. That would cause OPEC to loose too much market share.
High oil prices could do more for the environmental movement than all the previous efforts done by government and environmental organizations combined.
Well if the peak oilers are right OPEC can't do anything about it-can't pump it at a higher rate- so why would they worry? There was a story today on the BBC about how the Saudi's are trying to diversify their economy. If peak oil really has occurred car-free will become more common and people will drive less. I think the gloom and doom peak oilers are wrong, its been several years and no wars for resources or economic turmoil or social unrest. We're just adjusting gradually to living on less oil.
stevo9er
06-11-08, 10:07 AM
OPEC is very concerned about this drop in fuel usage. They have scheduled an emergency meeting for next month. I bet they realize that the longer the higher prices last the more people will permanently use less fuel. If the price increases were very slow and incremental all of society would just adjust to it, thus the number of people using fuel would continue to increase.
If prices continue to go up 35% per year you can bet billions of people worldwide will change their driving habits. That would cause OPEC to loose too much market share.
High oil prices could do more for the environmental movement than all the previous efforts done by government and environmental organizations combined.
How do you lose market share for a good that has almost completely inelastic demand?
High prices and lower volumes seem to be in OPEC's favor. They still make their money and don't have to risk damaging wells by overpumping.
If I were them, I'd have told the US and other countries to f-off a long time ago with the high volume demands.
TuckertonRR
06-11-08, 11:26 AM
Well if the peak oilers are right OPEC can't do anything about it-can't pump it at a higher rate- so why would they worry? There was a story today on the BBC about how the Saudi's are trying to diversify their economy. If peak oil really has occurred car-free will become more common and people will drive less. I think the gloom and doom peak oilers are wrong, its been several years and no wars for resources or economic turmoil or social unrest. We're just adjusting gradually to living on less oil.
Couple points:
peak oil, and oil use in general, is not all about driving cars. It's about electric generation, freight transport, manufacturing products, agriculture & food supply, and building & maintaining buildings. In short, peak oil will invariably affect _all_ our lives, whether we drive a car or not.
The latest Iraq war IS a war about resources - namely some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and our (USA)'s ability to control it ourselves, or via a proxy ("Iraqui legislature"). Expect more resource wars in the future.
We aren't living on less oil - 85mil bbl/day since '05 is what I've heard. Same supply + increased demand = higher prices. When we DO see "less oil" - ie; Post Peak, is when we can expect the real fun to begin.
We aren't living on less oil - 85mil bbl/day since '05 is what I've heard. Same supply + increased demand = higher prices. When we DO see "less oil" - ie; Post Peak, is when we can expect the real fun to begin.
Well, what I was thinking is same supply but Chinese and Indians are using way more, someone must be using less than they used too. Our Asian friends aren't using less than they used too, they are apparently using more. Roody started this thread about Americans driving less so that effect patially offsets the Chinese driving more. It might be smart for all of us to save the oil for things other than driving like plastics and pharmaceutical feedstock. Maybe McCain will propose this and win the election because the voters respond to his forward thinking on energy issues.
HoustonB
06-11-08, 12:19 PM
Couple points:
peak oil, and oil use in general, is not all about driving cars. It's about electric generation, freight transport, manufacturing products, agriculture & food supply, and building & maintaining buildings. In short, peak oil will invariably affect _all_ our lives, whether we drive a car or not.
The latest Iraq war IS a war about resources - namely some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and our (USA)'s ability to control it ourselves, or via a proxy ("Iraqi legislature"). Expect more resource wars in the future.
We aren't living on less oil - 85mil bbl/day since '05 is what I've heard. Same supply + increased demand = higher prices. When we DO see "less oil" - ie; Post Peak, is when we can expect the real fun to begin.
:thumb: Also, Peak Oil, is not about the end of oil, it is about the end of cheap, easy to get at, oil. When the energy required to extract the oil is greater than the energy in the oil, then the oil stays where it is.
The oil exporting countries really are not worried about any decline in demand, just so long as the price keeps going up. There are three major reasons for this;
1. Their reserves are probably highly exaggerated and they are actually unable to produce more.
2. Increasing domestic demand that reduces crude available for export - recent converts from net exporter to importer include the UK and Indonesia.
3. They have started to express a desire to keep some reserves in the ground for the future.
Demand destruction, occurs long after the price of crude changes, partially because of the fact that people have started to rely on their credit cards for much more, and the demand destruction does not occur until after the credit delinquency.
Exacerbating the credit aspect, is that main-stream-media is telling everyone that oil prices will fall again - this just encourages the unenlightened to spend their way further out onto the branch.
PotatoSlayer
06-11-08, 09:43 PM
. It might be smart for all of us to save the oil for things other than driving like plastics and pharmaceutical feedstock. Maybe McCain will propose this and win the election because the voters respond to his forward thinking on energy issues.
McCain isn't forward thinking. His answer to gas prices crunching budgets was to TEMPORARILY suspend a small tax. It's like putting a bandaid over a bullet wound. And he didn't think of all the infrastructure jobs that would be affected.
I don't need McCain to pay less tax on gas. I did that by changing my habits so I don't have to buy as much gas.
Demand destruction, occurs long after the price of crude changes, partially because of the fact that people have started to rely on their credit cards for much more, and the demand destruction does not occur until after the credit delinquency.
Exacerbating the credit aspect, is that main-stream-media is telling everyone that oil prices will fall again - this just encourages the unenlightened to spend their way further out onto the branch.
I don't think anyone seriously thinks oil prices are going to significantly drop ever again. Even all of my seriously car-centric friends (i.e., almost everyone I know) have absolutely no illusions about this. We all know that this is a permanent change; that's why everyone's anxious.
Well if the peak oilers are right OPEC can't do anything about it-can't pump it at a higher rate- so why would they worry? There was a story today on the BBC about how the Saudi's are trying to diversify their economy. If peak oil really has occurred car-free will become more common and people will drive less. I think the gloom and doom peak oilers are wrong, its been several years and no wars for resources or economic turmoil or social unrest. We're just adjusting gradually to living on less oil.
"No wars for resources"?
What was it we are in Iraq for again?....
Oh ya, weapons of mass destruction.
Right. Forgot about that.
I don't think anyone seriously thinks oil prices are going to significantly drop ever again. Even all of my seriously car-centric friends (i.e., almost everyone I know) have absolutely no illusions about this. We all know that this is a permanent change; that's why everyone's anxious.
Here is a place where you can see a bunch of data organized for easy retrieval.
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622
There are tons of tables and spreadsheets for download.
One table shows Europe oil consumption dropping 2006-2007, I guess for 2007-2008 with the high prices it will drop more.
If more people adopt a low oil lifestyle and discover that they can have a good quality of life, the price might come down. Oil usage isn't like air and water with no good substitute. I've used a bicycle to successfully reduce my oil usage and don't want to go back to car dependency no matter how cheap gas gets. I expect many other people will be prompted by high prices to make the same personal discovery and not return to car dependency even after prices drop.
Highcyclist
06-12-08, 02:11 PM
Here is a place where you can see a bunch of data organized for easy retrieval.
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622
There are tons of tables and spreadsheets for download.
One table shows Europe oil consumption dropping 2006-2007, I guess for 2007-2008 with the high prices it will drop more.
If more people adopt a low oil lifestyle and discover that they can have a good quality of life, the price might come down. Oil usage isn't like air and water with no good substitute. I've used a bicycle to successfully reduce my oil usage and don't want to go back to car dependency no matter how cheap gas gets. I expect many other people will be prompted by high prices to make the same personal discovery and not return to car dependency even after prices drop.
Any drop in oil usage in Europe and N. America will more than be made up for by the rapidly increasing demand in China, India, and other parts of the developing world. The Chinese were mostly on bikes twenty years ago. Apparently, they don't want to go back to it.
murphstahoe
06-12-08, 02:24 PM
Any drop in oil usage in Europe and N. America will more than be made up for by the rapidly increasing demand in China, India, and other parts of the developing world. The Chinese were mostly on bikes twenty years ago. Apparently, they don't want to go back to it.
The Chinese and the Indians, faced with a rapid increase in price of a commodity they have just been introduced to, will luckily have better infrastructure and perspective to go back to life without.
When the energy required to extract the oil is greater than the energy in the oil, then the oil stays where it is.
... sometimes true, but probably not 100% - with a cheap and easy source of hard-to-transport natural gas next to your oil, the energy-to-extract question is not a deal-breaker.
wernmax
06-12-08, 08:08 PM
"No wars for resources"?
What was it we are in Iraq for again?....
Oh ya, weapons of mass destruction.
Right. Forgot about that.
I used to think Iraq was all about the oil, but then I screwed my tinfoil hat down real tight on my head, and started wondering where all the tons of gold and the Billion $ or so that they found in steel boxes might have got to, then I thought, "No, that's chump change.", so then I thought, "A few hundred billion in no-bid Haliburton & subsidaries contracts, courtesy of the "taxpayers", and now Haliburton's in Dubi?" Sweet.
Highcyclist
06-13-08, 02:16 AM
The Chinese and the Indians, faced with a rapid increase in price of a commodity they have just been introduced to, will luckily have better infrastructure and perspective to go back to life without.
True enough. The perspective will probably be the greatest advantage. The US has had it so good for so long, that I wonder about how the population will adapt to considerably more challenging conditions. The Depression generation has just about passed on.
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