Living Car Free - gas prices hell......worry about supply.

Everyone is paniced over the price of gas when it's supply that
will be the next and more important issue we'll have to deal with

Count on it............:notamused:

I highly doubt there will be a supply issue in my lifetime ... not in terms of total quantity available anyway.

I highly doubt there will be a supply issue in my lifetime ... not in terms of total quantity available anyway.

I wouldn't bet on it...In the US at least we are never more than a couple of days away from supply disruptions. And once that happens getting back on track is going to get harder everyday. FWIW I NEVER let any of my vehicles get below half a tank, on my big work truck I only empty one tank at a time, that way if the excrement ever impacts the rotary isolator I should have enough fuel to get me home, or close enough I can walk or cycle the rest of the way.

Aaron:)

There's A LOT more oil out there ... throughout the world ... than you're being led to believe.


Sure there may be short-term, local disruptions (there was one here in Alberta for a few days in April) ... but it's not because of a lack of oil.

Katrina messed with our supply here in the southeast for a while. I remember almost being concerned that I only had 1/4 tank in the van. There were lines at the gas station making the wait about 30 minutes, so I decided it wasn't that important. I mean, it took me two months to get the tank down to 1/4, I supposed that 1/4 tank could last several weeks, especially if I was trying. As it was the disruption lasted about a week, maybe 10 days. I didn't even need the car during that time. Not a big problem. There was big panic here locally though. I remember seeing about 40 Hummers lined up to get gas. They were all from the dealer... I guess they were worried they wouldn't be able to give test drives.

Az

There's A LOT more oil out there ... throughout the world ... than you're being led to believe.

It's not a question of total reserves, it's a question of maximum rate of production.

It's not a question of total reserves, it's a question of maximum rate of production.

Divided by demand, which is going up, faster than production increases. It's not a case of running the tank empty,
think more along the lines of a restriction in your gas line, try it, the engine will run like s**t, if at all.

$3 a avocado! I remember when they used to be 4 for a dollar!

I believe that OPEC, or at least Iran and UAE is saying that currently there is plenty of oil on the market, that supply has exceeded demand. Of course on the other side, they are saying that there's not enough oil on the market, pointing to China and India as new demand. Who to believe...?

For every commodity, it's never a supply problem, it is always demand. Without demand, there is no reason for the supply of a commodity to exist. People forget, oil demand was artificially created.


$3 a avocado! I remember when they used to be 4 for a dollar!

It's still $0.80 locally. Most produces haven't change much at all. Still buying lettuce at $0.79 per batch.

All of us who do a lot of riding will be the most prepared if the **** ever hits the fan. I don't ride as much in the winter, but it doesn't mean I cant. I certainly have the gear. Not a problem. What about the 400 pound fatty patty in the SUV with 4 kids and two dogs. They are not prepared. It will be so much harder for them.

There's A LOT more oil out there ... throughout the world ... than you're being led to believe.


I think the opposite is true. Nearly all the major reserves have been overestimated.

Now,if you want to count that goopy pseudo-oil that you albertans rip out of the boreal forests (cancer rates be damned!) then you might have a point.

But liquid, easily pumped and processed crude, is scarcer than we're told.

Everyone is paniced over the price of gas when it's supply that
will be the next and more important issue we'll have to deal with

Count on it............:notamused:

Ummm....the price is up because of supply - supply is already the issue we're dealing with.

I think the opposite is true. Nearly all the major reserves have been overestimated.

Now,if you want to count that goopy pseudo-oil that you albertans rip out of the boreal forests (cancer rates be damned!) then you might have a point.

But liquid, easily pumped and processed crude, is scarcer than we're told.

They've barely begun tapping into the oil reserves in Africa and South America.

They've barely begun tapping into the oil reserves in Africa and South America.


But will the U.S. & Canada get any of it? Remember China & India now pay top dollar per barrel.

I highly doubt there will be a supply issue in my lifetime ... not in terms of total quantity available anyway.

There is never any problem with supply of anything.......IF you have enough money.:rolleyes:

THAT leaves millions out in the cold..............

Besides Saudi Arabia, Canada has the largest oil deposits in the World. Problem is getting to it. Rising oil prices only brings that oil closer to the market. So we all should be fine for the next 100 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

They've barely begun tapping into the oil reserves in Africa and South America.


Total reserves, in Africa amount to 7%, and its largest producer, Nigeria, will peak by the end of the decade. (http://www.iags.org/futureofoil.html)

Finding "Billion Barrel" reserves is NOTHING.
We need to find another "Trillion Barrel" Ghawar - and it ain't happening.

So we're just going to befoul the Athabasca and beyond - dredging up that sludge, instead of biting the bullet and reducing our energy needs while switching to renewables.

Hell, with so many oil experts here on BF, we ought to start up our own cartel.

Please inform yourselves. As a side note, I swear I do not wear a tin foil hat. The fact that I am the complete opposite of that type of person indicates why you should take the time to read through the info on the site.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Please inform yourselves. As a side note, I swear I do not wear a tin foil hat. The fact that I am the complete opposite of that type of person indicates why you should take the time to read through the info on the site.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I don't wear a tin foil hat either.

I am "eco-centric", in the sense that I understand how biological budgets work, and how we've become dangerously overdrawn.

But the idjits would label me a treehugger.

Everyone is paniced over the price of gas when it's supply that
will be the next and more important issue we'll have to deal with

Count on it............:notamused:

The first rocket to hit Iran will cause a massive shortage similar to what happend after the fall of the Shaw. I predict they are waiting until after the elections and if McCain wins, get ready to pay $7.00 dollars a gallon. I'll get my "I'M EVEN" shirt that I wore back during the day when you could only buy gas when your plate had an even number.

Oh, wait a second. I forgot I'm car free now! ;-)

Besides Saudi Arabia, Canada has the largest oil deposits in the World. Problem is getting to it. Rising oil prices only brings that oil closer to the market. So we all should be fine for the next 100 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

Does it not take more energy to extract and refine that oil than the evergy it contains? That means it will be astronomically expensive. Too expensive for anything but automobiles, in fact.

Cars (and airplanes) are the only devices that NEED a liquid, highly combustible, and energy-dense form of fuel.

Also, do you not worry about the effects of pumping all that carbon out of the ground and putting it into the air? This seems pretty risky to me!

I bike to work during the week, then make up for it driving hundreds of miles on the weekend in my 18mpg car. No problems yet.

Please inform yourselves. As a side note, I swear I do not wear a tin foil hat. The fact that I am the complete opposite of that type of person indicates why you should take the time to read through the info on the site.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I'm a fellow believer. I don't think we'll run out of oil, but the problem is all the "easy" oil is long gone. What's left is sour crude and shale. With all the other countries starting to use their fair share of oil, it's going to be a dog eat dog world from this point further. Yeah, we're more prepared, but there are a lot of components on our bikes that depend on oil. Not to mention the transportation of these parts to our houses and local stores. Best to stock up.

I bike to work during the week, then make up for it driving hundreds of miles on the weekend in my 18mpg car. No problems yet.

Dude, you always have a way of putting things into prospecive. :thumb:

Besides Saudi Arabia, Canada has the largest oil deposits in the World. Problem is getting to it. Rising oil prices only brings that oil closer to the market. So we all should be fine for the next 100 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

Well, you really just screwed everything up for the people in Alberta. Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag, now you are going to have the US government going in and conquering terrorist organizations and establishing democracy in that province...and sticking around for a very long time.

I bike to work during the week, then make up for it driving hundreds of miles on the weekend in my 18mpg car. No problems yet.

And you still manage to find the time to start flame wars on the forums. Quite remarkable, really!

:rolleyes:

Car people, don't worry. The Saudi's have decided to pump more, remember basic economics, the price has come down already. I was worried that the peak oilers might be right to say that the Saudi's aren't pumping more because they can't. Food prices should follow gas prices downward shortly. Even when gas prices get back below $1.00 per gallon, car - free is still a great way to go, in my opinion. If you disagree, crank up the hummer and go sit in traffic, our friends the Saudi's have come to your rescue:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7455570.stm

Car people, don't worry. The Saud's have decided to pump more, remember basic economics, the price has come down already. I was worried that the peak oilers might be right to say that the Saud's aren't pumping more because they can't.

All this century, Saudi Arabia said they could pump 12 million barrels a day if they wanted to. Because they never did, even in the face of $30 oil rising to $140, it has been assumed that they are unable to increase production- just like everyone else!

Now we swoon that they promise to raise production by half a million barrels a day... to ten million barrels a day! They have promised before, so we will have to wait and see if they really will this time.

The bald truth is now in our face: There is no spare productive capacity! Every spigot is wide open. Everyone who can is producing flat out.

Will the Saud's new production bring prices way down? NO! It is not enough in it's self to overcome the decline of exports from Mexico and Russia. It won't overcome the increased demand from India and China. (They went from walking to cycling to motor-biking, and now they have enough disposable income for cars.) Both India and China subsidies the cost of gasoline and diesel, shielding their populations from the market prices. The Chinese have not increased the street price of gasoline for over four months, for example.

In fact, the energy growth and demand from Asia is hard to wrap one's head around. For every American who has electricity at home, there is one Indian and two Chinese who do not. For every mile of paved road China has, America has three. Last year China put into operation one coal fired power plant a week. China is the worlds largest producer of coal, but they became a net importer of the stuff last year. India just announced that they will have to import 30 million tons more coal this year than they had planned on. It really doesn't matter how much less energy Americans use, it cannot overcome world demand growth. It will be overwhelmed by the rising middle class and human nature in the East.

The bottom line: Any new production in world oil supply has to overcome the twin perils of declining output of old fields (We are consuming 3 gallons of oil for every new gallon discovered. Year over year we have discovered less oil than the year before since 1969.) and rising consumption. Oil will be dear as far as the eye can see.

We will never run out of oil. The last bit will simply be too expensive to extract.

$3 a avocado! I remember when they used to be 4 for a dollar!

That's what's going to hurt the most...People need to remember that when fuel goes up, EVERYTHING else will too!!!

I read an article in a magazine a few months back about a company in Canada who developed a way to extract oil from rocks.

In the article the company states, they have a 100 year supply of oil for the entire world!

Apparently Bush wouldn't sign a contract with them, so they brought there business elsewhere (China of course).

All of us who do a lot of riding will be the most prepared if the **** ever hits the fan. I don't ride as much in the winter, but it doesn't mean I cant. I certainly have the gear. Not a problem. What about the 400 pound fatty patty in the SUV with 4 kids and two dogs. They are not prepared. It will be so much harder for them.

If the **** ever hits the fan, we are all screwed no matter if you drive or not.

Transportation will be the least of your worries.

I read an article in a magazine a few months back about a company in Canada who developed a way to extract oil from rocks.

In the article the company states, they have a 100 year supply of oil for the entire world!

Apparently Bush wouldn't sign a contract with them, so they brought there business elsewhere (China of course).


To that I would offer the this. Unlike conventional sources of oil, oil derived from these oil sands is extremely financially and energetically intensive to extract. Whereas conventional oil has enjoyed a rate of "energy return on energy invested" (EROEI) of about 30 to 1, the oil sands rate of return hovers around 1.5 to 1. This means that we would have to expend 20 times as much energy to generate the same amount of oil from the oil sands as we do from conventional sources of oil.

Where to find such a huge amount of capital is largely a moot point because even optimistic reports anticipate a peak production of 4 million barrels per day of oil coming from the oil sands around 2020. Source Even if the optimists are correct, a peak of 4 mbd in the context of global demand that is already 85 mbd and growing at a rate of 2-to-5 mbd per year is not going to do much to offest the coming decline.

(Sidenote: I copied this from http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/. I hate to keep plugging this website, but it is compiled very well, on topic and unfortunately,very sobering.)

Well, you really just screwed everything up for the people in Alberta. Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag, now you are going to have the US government going in and conquering terrorist organizations and establishing democracy in that province...and sticking around for a very long time.

Come to think of it - isn't Alberta a one-party state?:p

We won't run out of oil for a long time, Machka's right.

If you really needed to, you could make oil out of coal (the Nazi's figured that one out), at great expense.

We are short on cheap oil, but again, the market is quite distorted by two factors: subsidies in many countries keep price signals from influencing consumers, and consumers in wealthy countries refuse to reduce their use in response to price signals. Think about it - the price of oil has quintupuled or more in recent years, and yet North America has only just started to reduce oil use.

Unfortunately, most people refuse to reduce oil use in response to higher prices, leading to a spike before they respond.

The good news is, the developed world's economy is way less energy dependent than it used to be, and off the shelf technology and policy is capable of reducing energy intensity manyfold (see how Japan has reduced it's energy dependency bigtime in the last two decades, if they can do it, it must be possible)

Too bad there are too many americans who can't figure out how to carpool (or whatever) to save on gas (or that are too rich to care to save on gas).

One more note - they say a marginal oil sands barrel can be produced at a cost of $65.00. That sets a floor on new production of about $80 a barrel. All we need to do is refuse to use oil that costs more than that - too bad the will isn't out there.