Living Car Free - Changing Suburbs Into Ghostburbs

My guess is that in 2020 or so, we'll start to see down town become barren, and people will start suburbanizing again. I just need to figure out where, so I can buy up the cheap land now! :D

In 2020, there will be less gas than today, you better have a lot of money to live a surburban lifestyle. Gas will be 20 dollars a gallon. I can just imagine what your home heating bill for the winter will be in that year!

I predict that, by 2020, the burbs will still be there and thriving. Space is limited in the inner loops of cities, cost of housing will become prohibitive, and without major infusions of funds, the schools will remain the pits. How we get around may change, but the burbs will prosper and housing values will continue to hold, if not climb in the burbs. We cannot move millions into the cities in such a short time.

I predict that, by 2020, the burbs will still be there and thriving. Space is limited in the inner loops of cities, cost of housing will become prohibitive, and without major infusions of funds, the schools will remain the pits. How we get around may change, but the burbs will prosper and housing values will continue to hold, if not climb in the burbs. We cannot move millions into the cities in such a short time.

I am not so sure. Look at what has been happening in Manhattan over the last 10 years.

I am beginning to see a genuine population shift here in Southern California. 25 or more years ago, we had a huge "white flight" into the ever growing suburbs to escape the problems of city living. The poor stayed in the inner city and older suburbs ringing the central area. And were quickly forgotten by the retreating masses of middle class and better groups. Now a interesting shift is materializing. The poor is being pushed out with new apartment/condo developments as well as the purchase of older residences to the suburbs. The newly "gas poor" middle class & even upper class is taking it all back. Isn't it justice so predictable?

I am not so sure. Look at what has been happening in Manhattan over the last 10 years.
What is that? New Yorker's seem so parochial, as though everyone in the world keeps their attention focused on what happens in New York. I haven't been there in 5 or six years, what has been happening? I saw something about pedicabs in Manhattan a year or so ago, is that what you mean? Are positive or negative things happening there with respect to living car free? We hicks from the sticks need educating.

What is that? New Yorker's seem so parochial, as though everyone in the world keeps their attention focused on what happens in New York. I haven't been there in 5 or six years, what has been happening? I saw something about pedicabs in Manhattan a year or so ago, is that what you mean? Are positive or negative things happening there with respect to living car free? We hicks from the sticks need educating.

I was referring more to the increasing number of wealthier families that choose to live in Manhattan,
from the NYT:

"Since 2000, according to census figures released last year, the number of children under age 5 living in Manhattan mushroomed by more than 32 percent. And though their ranks have been growing for several years, a new analysis for The New York Times makes clear for the first time who has been driving that growth: wealthy white families.

At least half of the growth was generated by children who are white and non-Hispanic. Their ranks expanded by more than 40 percent from 2000 to 2005. For the first time since at least the 1960s, white children now outnumber either black or Hispanic youngsters in that age group in Manhattan"

However, since you mentioned positives with respect to car free living, from wikipeida:

"Manhattan is unique in the United States for its intense use of public transportation and lack of private car ownership. While 88% of Americans nationwide drive to their jobs and only 5% use public transportation, mass transit is the dominant form of travel for residents of Manhattan, with 72% of borough residents using public transportation and only 18% driving to work. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, more than 75% of Manhattan households do not own a car."

Manhattan had a 2007 population of 1,620,867 according to the US census. Therefore it has about 1.2 million car free residents. Certainly more than any other county in the US and probably more than any state (other than New York of course).

I was referring more to the increasing number of wealthier families that choose to live in Manhattan,
from the NYT:

"Since 2000, according to census figures released last year, the number of children under age 5 living in Manhattan mushroomed by more than 32 percent. And though their ranks have been growing for several years, a new analysis for The New York Times makes clear for the first time who has been driving that growth: wealthy white families.

At least half of the growth was generated by children who are white and non-Hispanic. Their ranks expanded by more than 40 percent from 2000 to 2005. For the first time since at least the 1960s, white children now outnumber either black or Hispanic youngsters in that age group in Manhattan"

However, since you mentioned positives with respect to car free living, from wikipeida:

"Manhattan is unique in the United States for its intense use of public transportation and lack of private car ownership. While 88% of Americans nationwide drive to their jobs and only 5% use public transportation, mass transit is the dominant form of travel for residents of Manhattan, with 72% of borough residents using public transportation and only 18% driving to work. According to the 2000 U.S. Census, more than 75% of Manhattan households do not own a car."

Manhattan had a 2007 population of 1,620,867 according to the US census. Therefore it has about 1.2 million car free residents. Certainly more than any other county in the US and probably more than any state (other than New York of course).

Oh. Here in DC the number of families is holding steady. I think the population of DC is lower than it was in the late 1950s so we have room for more people. There is also room for more infill development so we could suck in people from the suburbs when driving becomes unpopular.

Don't be fooled. These are very unusual times fueled mostly by media frenzy. Housing costs in the city are down too.

The fact that Suburbia has lost it's luster has been going on for years. Look at all the major cities like Washington, DC and NYC that have had neighborhood reclaiming going on - slums turned into high-scale real-estate.

Is it any wonder why the Europeans that came to American built homes and buildings side-by-side with very little space in-between? Why do you think it was that those newcomers looked at what seemed like infinite land space and still built right on top of their neighbors? Go to any small town in the USA with popluations of even a couple thousand people and the downtown area is the same - buildings with hardly a credit-card gap between them. It was because of transportation. People didn't want to have to go "way out there" for things.

Somewhere along the way, things got silly as the automobile age influenced infrustructure and city planning.

There will be change and cities will once again be recognized for their convenience and advantages. The report mentions that real-estate conveniently located near train stations are selling for a premium... Duh Ya... so THIS is news? Hello, it has always been like this everywhere, in every country in the USA. Maybe in some of the USA slums, it is different, but otherwise this is not new and it is not news.

Don't expect the Suburbs to evaporate, however. "They ain't makin' anymore land" as the saying goes.

Real estate is down for one reason - people just aren't buying right now... but they will again and when they do you will kick yourself for not buying real estate when it was cheap and interest rates were below 10%.

In 2020, there will be less gas than today, you better have a lot of money to live a surburban lifestyle. Gas will be 20 dollars a gallon. I can just imagine what your home heating bill for the winter will be in that year!

This assumes that we do not develop and use other fuels.

If gasoline goes to $20.00 per gallon, I can assure you that other fuels will step in and take the place of gasoline. The day Joe goes to the pump and pays $500 to fill up his truck will be the day we start to see him using his cows to pull the truck into town. His city cousin will fill-up his trunk and backseat with rechargeable batteries.

We are dependent on petrolium fuel, but we are not forever slaves to it.

This assumes that we do not develop and use other fuels.

If gasoline goes to $20.00 per gallon, I can assure you that other fuels will step in and take the place of gasoline. The day Joe goes to the pump and pays $500 to fill up his truck will be the day we start to see him using his cows to pull the truck into town. His city cousin will fill-up his trunk and backseat with rechargeable batteries.

We are dependent on petroleum fuel, but we are not forever slaves to it.

Nobody in their right mind would use cows to pull a truck. A truck is far too heavy for cows to pull like that. A lightweight buggy pulled by a horse - perhaps. But never a truck.

Nobody in their right mind would use cows to pull a truck. A truck is far too heavy for cows to pull like that. A lightweight buggy pulled by a horse - perhaps. But never a truck.
I hope it doesn't get to that point! From what I read, an ox is basically just a cow used to pull wagons, and we've all heard the expression "strong as an ox".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ox

Don't know about pulling 18-wheelers with oxen, but maybe a gutted minivan?

Nobody in their right mind would use cows to pull a truck. A truck is far too heavy for cows to pull like that. A lightweight buggy pulled by a horse - perhaps. But never a truck.

People modify cars to be pulled by animals.

Just outside New Dehli, I have seen them using Camels to pull carts.

I hope it doesn't get to that point! From what I read, an ox is basically just a cow used to pull wagons, and we've all heard the expression "strong as an ox".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ox

Don't know about pulling 18-wheelers with oxen, but maybe a gutted minivan?

Yes, but my point is that to pull a car or truck, you are pulling a ton or two of deadweight. You really need the cart to be as light as possible to make it possible to haul something that you actually need to be hauled.

I suppose you could take a truck and strip it down to a bare chassis. Remove the engine, transmission, driveshaft, much of the body, and everything else. It would still be quite heavy though.

Nobody in their right mind would use cows to pull a truck. A truck is far too heavy for cows to pull like that. A lightweight buggy pulled by a horse - perhaps. But never a truck.


Hey, Ericy, dude I was just kidding about the cows pulling a truck.