People are abandoning the car lifestyle faster than even I expected. The wallet is the most powerful tool for change, not environmental concern, not overcrowding of the city/streets/and other public places, not even the addiction to driving/car ownership that North Americans had since a couple of generations ago. Now with a dying housing market, job concerns, and shifting emphasis on not being overly concern what the neighbors are thinking (since they probably don't know them in the first place), is very quickly shifting people back to the cities-not away from them. No one city is more striking than the Los Angeles are as this video clip from ABC news program Good Morning America shows:

Links Below Is The Same Video Clip-Just Different Options To Access:

Ghostburbs e-mail link
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5190925&affil=kabc (http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5190925&affil=kabc)



Ghostburbs embedded link
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5190925 (http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5190925)

Good coverage.

My wife and I talk about this all the time: there will be an implosion back to the city centers. Any real estate near a train station will be worth a lot more in the coming years. We are looking for a house and the number one aspect of the house is close to BART (bay area rapid transit). We are car free so being close has been a way of life for awhile now.

We bought in Healdsburg - it's a vacation rental property now and we might move there. The gambit - if the SMART rail comes in we will be 1.5 miles from a train to Larkspur Ferry. And regardless, we are renting vacation property that is $1500 less per person to get to than Tuscany for the 8 Million plus Bay Area residents.

In order to do this I sold my place in SF and I am somewhat lamenting that (we rent now) but we'll see...

I saw a documentary a few years ago called "the end of suburbia" that was very ahead of its time in describing exactly what we're seeing start to take place now.

I'm going to be a contrarian here. While a lot of the traffic will obviously move permanently back to the city center, some of those large houses out in the 'burbs will surely get a second life.

A couple of things could help. First of all, if Americans would accept the concept of communal travel arrangements. One example is the "collectivo" that a lot of Mexicans use. A bus/van stops somewhere in the burb, loads up and then heads to a couple of spots (like maybe a train station...) in another center.

Those large suburban lawns could transform into market gardens, which could serve to feed the overcrowded urban core.

The over-sized houses could also be transformed. Large garages could become small grocery stores, small craft/artisan workshops. Multiple bedrooms could supported extended families or small communes.

Anyway, just a thought....

I'm going to be a contrarian here. While a lot of the traffic will obviously move permanently back to the city center, some of those large houses out in the 'burbs will surely get a second life.

A couple of things could help. First of all, if Americans would accept the concept of communal travel arrangements. One example is the "collectivo" that a lot of Mexicans use. A bus/van stops somewhere in the burb, loads up and then heads to a couple of spots (like maybe a train station...) in another center.

Those large suburban lawns could transform into market gardens, which could serve to feed the overcrowded urban core.

The over-sized houses could also be transformed. Large garages could become small grocery stores, small craft/artisan workshops. Multiple bedrooms could supported extended families or small communes.

Anyway, just a thought....

I agree with you. The suburbs won't die, they'll just change. They might even become more interesting and livable. The core cities, by contrast, have a good chance of becoming dull little islands of leisure for the wealthy, which has already happened in some places.

I feel sorry for people who currently live near train stations or cities. Their property tax is going to go WAY up.

I saw a documentary a few years ago called "the end of suburbia" that was very ahead of its time in describing exactly what we're seeing start to take place now.

That was three years ago, and everything was said in that film was correct.

I feel sorry for people who currently live near train stations or cities. Their property tax is going to go WAY up.

That would depend on your county/municipality property tax law. Those whose property tax are assessed by current market value are definitely going to be screwed. If it is assessed by at purchased value, then you're fine, until you decide to sell the property.

I read this article from the WSJ which is basically an expanded version of the above story (includes the same interviewee, Mike Boseman):
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121366811790479767-TWKhSkkrP88hu5Zy3uyLnxci83Y_20080718.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

I think there will be a return to the cities for many, but I also think that interesting re-development /re-zoning of the suburbs is going to be inevitable, too. I envision the demolition of some housing in the further flung suburbs and its replacement with commercially zoned properties that are located within a human (rather than car) distance. And local organic gardens... how can it be cheaper to get strawberries all the way from Chile than from a few blocks over, anyways??

Basically the return of the corner store and farmer's market, but this time, in the middle of the suburbs... maybe I'm dreaming, who knows ;)

And lots of telecommuting, to be sure!

Steve

I saw a documentary a few years ago called "the end of suburbia" that was very ahead of its time in describing exactly what we're seeing start to take place now.

Yes, James Howard Kunstler wrote a book called "The Long Emergency" that detailed the dangers
of the suburban lifestyle and how insane it is several years ago. It took sticker shock fuel prices
to kick America in the butt to pay attention. :roflmao2:

I feel sorry for people who currently live near train stations or cities. Their property tax is going to go WAY up.

But even if their taxes go up immediately, this would be due to the appreciation of the value of the property (i.e., profit). I'm not sure that people facing higher tax bills due to large profits deserve my sympathy.

Interesting, not at all what is happening here. Here the inner city is being abandoned at a faster rate than ever. JObs and shopping are moving out to the burbs (where the educated and eager workers are anyway).

Interesting, not at all what is happening here. Here the inner city is being abandoned at a faster rate than ever. JObs and shopping are moving out to the burbs (where the educated and eager workers are anyway).


Where do you live?

I live out in the country.

I'm just waiting for you city slickers to run out of food and start eating each other like a Brazillian football team

I live out in the country.

I'm just waiting for you city slickers to run out of food and start eating each other like a Brazillian football team

We will just come to your property and eat all your food.

But even if their taxes go up immediately, this would be due to the appreciation of the value of the property (i.e., profit). I'm not sure that people facing higher tax bills due to large profits deserve my sympathy.

The problem is that as long as you continue to live in the house, the profit is entirely on paper. You don't actually get to see any of the money from the appreciation in value until you either a) sell your house, or b) get a second mortgage (or first if it's already paid off). So while on paper you've made tons of money, in your bank account you're just seeing more money going out.

Why would you say property taxes will go up? I know prop 13 in Contra Costa County probably will not be touched for a long time. It's political suicide...

I'm going to be a contrarian here. While a lot of the traffic will obviously move permanently back to the city center, some of those large houses out in the 'burbs will surely get a second life.


I predict that some entrepreneur will simply buy whole subdivisions at ridiculously low cost, gut the houses for the fixtures, countertops, copper wiring, molding, make money reselling that, raze the houses, and plant crops.

I live out in the country.

I'm just waiting for you city slickers to run out of food and start eating each other like a Brazillian football team

or an Uruguayan rugby team.

Zoning laws need to change and the underlying attitude about suburbs. The infrastructure that is in place is based on the unit of transport of a car with one person in it. In time laws will be relaxed and more organic neighborhoods will grow out of it.

Zoning laws need to change and the underlying attitude about suburbs. The infrastructure that is in place is based on the unit of transport of a car with one person in it. In time laws will be relaxed and more organic neighborhoods will grow out of it.

This is more of what is occuring now. Buisness parks in places where they never would have been 10 years ago. My own city just permitted a small convenience store to be built right in the middle of a neghborhood near me. More people are working from home, LESS people are going to the downtown area. My wife's bank still maintains a big lighted sign on the side of a skyscraper downtown, but there is nobody inside it. It is empty just like the rest of downtown. The actual HG is in a suburb outside of town.

Zoning laws need to change and the underlying attitude about suburbs. The infrastructure that is in place is based on the unit of transport of a car with one person in it. In time laws will be relaxed and more organic neighborhoods will grow out of it.

No doubt, I believe a few of the suburbs around the country can be very livable if we get rid of the draconian zoning laws.

If all the houses are foreclosed upon, companies can just "move" some of their employees into the empty houses picked up for a song, and get an election going. Probably can stack the entire city council and win a zoning measure put up to direct vote.

If all the houses are foreclosed upon, companies can just "move" some of their employees into the empty houses picked up for a song, and get an election going. Probably can stack the entire city council and win a zoning measure put up to direct vote.

That's what Disney did.

http://www.bookreporter.com/reviews/0345422805.asp

I thought this was --> :roflmao2:




"Andrew Maynard asks the question of how suburbanites will live without gas."Where will suburbanites live when there is no other means of circulation to their homes? What will we do with our abandoned and decaying suburbs? And most importantly, what will we do with the 50% of Americans that are over-weight due to car dependence and a sedentary lifestyle?"

His answer: the CVO8 robot. Myninja tells us that it's "like a late night infomercial on steroids: it slices, it dices, it consumes entire towns - and it even cleans up after itself. The satirical hexapod will descend upon the suburbs, gathering the abandoned homes and cars through it’s front legs, crushing everything in its path and packaging it neatly for recycling. The CV08 then releases new flora+fauna through the middle legs, immediately populating the newly reclaimed land.

http://www.treehugger.com/2008-04-04_110538-Treehugger-suburb-eating-robot.jpg

"Lastly, the rear legs of the CV08 will serve as a means of power-collection: they pull chubby suburbanite stragglers up into a liposuction chamber, which draws out all of their excess fat [which then powers the CV08]. The now trim suburbanites are then shot out of the backside [read: ass] of the robot, parachuting down to safety - along with a brand new bicycle constructed from recycled suburbs.

Think of all the time + money this will save people on painting their McMansions, mowing the lawn, and going to the gym."

http://www.treehugger.com/2008-04-04_111226-Treehugger-cvo8-2.jpg

The CV08 looks so frickin' cool!!!!

My Roomba could take it.

-D

Moving to Pasadena is a long cry from moving back to LA. Yes the couple talked about on ABC moved closer to a train station but that only works for businesses that have a more traditional 9 to 5 work schedule. Working shift work and the Southern California trains simply don’t work well. People have to understand that most cities in Southern California are pretty spread out with far more Housing tracts than a place like New York.

Businesses moved to the Burbs in many places in California and moving to the city isn’t going to make it easier to get to work. People Fairfax is a very long way from the down town garment district. Another consideration some might want to consider is Places like down town LA simply can’t house even one large suburban community. You couldn’t put the people living in San Fernando in downtown LA there simply isn’t enough room.

It would be a lot easier to move business to where the people are than to move all the people to where the business are. Because I live in Southern California I can attest that our public transportation system simply isn’t up to any massive move to the city centers. With shopping malls, Strip Malls, and companies moving out to where they had more land there very little reason to move to LA proper. But it will be interesting to see how far it goes with the concept of moving to the central city. Moving to smaller towns I can understand but not into downtown LA, San Francisco, or San Diego. Plus I hope I never have to consider paying rent to a land lord to live in a stacked building. Just my opinion.

We are witnessing the end of the auto era and trust me, by the next century; people will wonder what we were all concerned about in the first place. I don't believe we really need motor transportation in the first place as was the case 100 years ago. Go to the library and read the local newspapers on microfilm how people got along without motor and minimal rail transport. It will amaze you how normal society actually looked.

However, we will see a rebirth of rail transport and this is happening with the explosive growth of light rail around the country. If suburban communities want to grow or flourish, they will need access to some form of rail line. The iron horse is going to return and this will be the salvation of the middle class in this country. The dream of millions driving hydrogen powered cars is just that, a dream.

I see the transformation happening as commuter rail lines in New Jersey are going to be expanded into Pennsylvania. Light rail lines like BART are being extended into areas that were never conceived of just 5 years ago. Eventually most suburban towns will have their own traction system just like they did 75 years ago. It's all coming back again.

Still, towns in the suburbs will still exist even without rail lines. When you think about it, many towns out west 200 years ago had very little in the way of jobs, shopping or entertainment but people still lived there. All you needed is a small convenience store, local bar, sheriff’s office, house of ill repute and you're set! ;-)

I feel sorry for people who currently live near train stations or cities. Their property tax is going to go WAY up.

There's some truth to this.

Property values all along light rail lines have increase by 20 - 30% in the past five years. However, as cyclist, this is not a problem. I used to live 1.2 miles from a light rail stop where property taxes remained stable, yet I was still able to take advantage of the traction line. I enjoyed my 5 minute commute to the train station without the burden of paying higher taxes.

I read this article from the WSJ which is basically an expanded version of the above story (includes the same interviewee, Mike Boseman):
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121366811790479767-TWKhSkkrP88hu5Zy3uyLnxci83Y_20080718.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

I think there will be a return to the cities for many, but I also think that interesting re-development /re-zoning of the suburbs is going to be inevitable, too. I envision the demolition of some housing in the further flung suburbs and its replacement with commercially zoned properties that are located within a human (rather than car) distance. And local organic gardens... how can it be cheaper to get strawberries all the way from Chile than from a few blocks over, anyways??

Basically the return of the corner store and farmer's market, but this time, in the middle of the suburbs... maybe I'm dreaming, who knows ;)Yep, exactly what's going to happen.

So... when the cars are gone... I'll be able to ride my bike on the freeways!!!

So... when the cars are gone... I'll be able to ride my bike on the freeways!!!I'm looking forward to it!

Actually, I don't think we'll see the end of cars, just the end of the the internal combustion engine. But it may be that there are few enough cars and more than enough bicycles to justify changes in use of the freeways.

Anyway, I enjoy thinking about all of those lanes just beckoning cyclists....

Moving to Pasadena is a long cry from moving back to LA. Yes the couple talked about on ABC moved closer to a train station but that only works for businesses that have a more traditional 9 to 5 work schedule. Working shift work and the Southern California trains simply don’t work well. People have to understand that most cities in Southern California are pretty spread out with far more Housing tracts than a place like New York.

Businesses moved to the Burbs in many places in California and moving to the city isn’t going to make it easier to get to work. People Fairfax is a very long way from the down town garment district. Another consideration some might want to consider is Places like down town LA simply can’t house even one large suburban community. You couldn’t put the people living in San Fernando in downtown LA there simply isn’t enough room.

It would be a lot easier to move business to where the people are than to move all the people to where the business are. Because I live in Southern California I can attest that our public transportation system simply isn’t up to any massive move to the city centers. With shopping malls, Strip Malls, and companies moving out to where they had more land there very little reason to move to LA proper. But it will be interesting to see how far it goes with the concept of moving to the central city. Moving to smaller towns I can understand but not into downtown LA, San Francisco, or San Diego. Plus I hope I never have to consider paying rent to a land lord to live in a stacked building. Just my opinion.

I too live in Southern California. The current transportation system is not up to any type of population movement. There is gridlock for auto/truck traffic. The rails/bus system is out of reality with providing any sort of sane means of getting around no matter what time of the day/night it is. Moving anywhere in the Los Angeles basin would not solve the problem. It is a matter of too many people crowding into ever shrinking living areas (no matter downtown or suburb). Add the stress of "diversity" and you got a riot in the making.

I predict that some entrepreneur will simply buy whole subdivisions at ridiculously low cost, gut the houses for the fixtures, countertops, copper wiring, molding, make money reselling that, raze the houses, and plant crops.

That would be a lot of work for little gain. The one thing the builders do when building a new subdivision is to scrape off all of the good topsoil and sell it (probably to garden centers). What's left is the crappy subsoil - clay, rocks, or whatnot. Finally the builder throws down some sod over the clay just before settlement, so it looks nice when the buyer comes by. And of course the grass doesn't do well. Some folks end up hiring a landscaping company to scrape out some of the crappy subsoil and add in some better quality topsoil, and once they do this the grass grows much better, but only a small number of people go to the trouble.

It would take years to recondition the soil in many of these subdivisions to make it productive land.

I too live in Southern California. The current transportation system is not up to any type of population movement. There is gridlock for auto/truck traffic. The rails/bus system is out of reality with providing any sort of sane means of getting around no matter what time of the day/night it is. Moving anywhere in the Los Angeles basin would not solve the problem. It is a matter of too many people crowding into ever shrinking living areas (no matter downtown or suburb). Add the stress of "diversity" and you got a riot in the making.

Public transportation in Southern California is close to worthless. San Diego and San Francisco are slight exception. Even they leave a lot to be desired. Moving to the central city portion of LA or many of the larger cities in Southern California just isn’t going to happen. Lake Arrowhead isn’t all that bike friendly unless you count those who transport their mountain bikes to the Snow Valley area with their 4x4s in the off-season. What some people don’t seem to realize is how spread out Southern California Cities are and how few businesses are located in the down town areas. Financial concerns being the exception. In southern California the Suburbs became cities themselves and brought the shopping centers and businesses with them. People living in Orange County may never go into LA. People living in the Inland Empire may never go into Orange County for any reason. The problem with public transportation in Southern California is it simply doesn’t service an area that will help people getting to work or coming home.

Bob

Public transportation in Southern California is close to worthless. San Diego and San Francisco are slight exception. Even they leave a lot to be desired. Moving to the central city portion of LA or many of the larger cities in Southern California just isn’t going to happen. Lake Arrowhead isn’t all that bike friendly unless you count those who transport their mountain bikes to the Snow Valley area with their 4x4s in the off-season. What some people don’t seem to realize is how spread out Southern California Cities are and how few businesses are located in the down town areas. Financial concerns being the exception. In southern California the Suburbs became cities themselves and brought the shopping centers and businesses with them. People living in Orange County may never go into LA. People living in the Inland Empire may never go into Orange County for any reason. The problem with public transportation in Southern California is it simply doesn’t service an area that will help people getting to work or coming home.

Bob


When I flew into LAX for the first time 25 years ago, I thought to myself that LA wasn't all that big, not realizing that I was just looking at Santa Monica, when the airplane turned to approach the airport, I remember thinking, OMG!:eek:

But even if their taxes go up immediately, this would be due to the appreciation of the value of the property (i.e., profit). I'm not sure that people facing higher tax bills due to large profits deserve my sympathy.

It's not profit unless you decide to sell... if the house belongs to an elderly couple on social security and the tax payment balloons, they may very well be forced out of a house that they've lived in for decades... maybe raised their family there?

Yeah, no sympathy for them! :(

In California, property values are frozen (for tax purposes) at the value of the property when you bought it. So for the elderly couple, there's no chance that they will be forced out of their home by rising property taxes. When the property is sold, the property is reappraised by the assessor at its current property value, and then remains frozen until it is sold again.

This has worked out great for the elderly, and even better for large corporations, because they rarely sell property; the result of "protecting the elderly" has been a tax windfall for the large corporations, and underfunded state services for everybody else.

We need to protect the elderly, no question, but we also need to make sure that we're not underfunding state services by also "protecting" corporations.

I agree with you. The suburbs won't die, they'll just change. They might even become more interesting and livable. The core cities, by contrast, have a good chance of becoming dull little islands of leisure for the wealthy, which has already happened in some places.

Right now the suburban governments seem to be fighting to keep them the same- or keep property values up. Last weekend I visited some car dependent dead end neighborhoods. I was shocked at the number of houses for sale or for auction. But also I noticed abandoned places- not for sale. The county had posted signs on some properties telling whoever owned the place to mow the yards. I thought that if they were making the banks maintain the property to keep up appearances in the neighborhood why not let the car dealers park their excess inventory of suvs in the driveways. The car dealers could keep up appearances of not being desperate to sell them and the hummers would act as a filter to attract stupid people to pay too much for the suburban houses. A win-win situation. "Look the next door neighbor mows his yard and drives a big car this must be a classy neighborhood, I really want to live here."

I believe all this is cyclical. In Des Moines, years ago everything was down town. Businesses, shops, apartments, etc. 15 or 20 years ago, the suburbs grew up. West Des Moines exploded. Suburbs out the wahzoo. Businesses starting moving west, settling in commercial and industrial 'parks.' Now in the last 5 yrs, downtown is seeing a resurgence. Lofts are being built above the entertainment district. Big businesses are starting to build some new offices down town.

My guess is that in 2020 or so, we'll start to see down town become barren, and people will start suburbanizing again. I just need to figure out where, so I can buy up the cheap land now! :D

My guess is that in 2020 or so, we'll start to see down town become barren, and people will start suburbanizing again. I just need to figure out where...
Predict where people in 2020 will be working and what kind of transportation they will have. Whatever locations are inside a 40-minute commuting range from employment is where people will be living.

Predict where people in 2020 will be working and what kind of transportation they will have. Whatever locations are inside a 40-minute commuting range from employment is where people will be living.

:crash: If only it were that easy :lol:

Well, in 2020 the suburbs will be packed with aging, retired Boomers who are stuck in big houses they can't afford to cool or heat, and they won't be driving very much, either.

As a result, many if not most suburban Boomers will have some of their grown children living at home along with their families. Grandma & Grandpa will own the place, or maybe deed it over to the kids. Their grown kids will live in the house rent free but will pay most of the bills, do all the driving, and take care of the elders and their own children.

Why do I think this will happen? I've seen it happen in my own family.

To my way of thinking, that picture won't change much for many years. We've already built as much housing as we can sustain for the next couple of generations. I think we'll basically live in what we've built for a long time to come with few opportunities for new residential real estate development. There may be a few worthwhile private development opportunities related to creating new suburban employment centers.

As gas becomes more scarce, I wonder when we are going to start seeing 3-wheeled cargo bikes & other human-powered vehicles that have been common in the 3rd world. Why not a cycle taxi driven by 2 cyclists, to carry heavy loads? I predict lots of new employment for cycle messengers & truckers.

Suburbs that swallowed up former small towns are going to become... small towns.

Well, in 2020 the suburbs will be packed with aging, retired Boomers who are stuck in big houses they can't afford to cool or heat, and they won't be driving very much, either.

As a result, many if not most suburban Boomers will have some of their grown children living at home along with their families. I've seen it happen in my own family.

YEP. ALREADY HAPPENED.
And it's about time too. The 'nuclear' family was a cultural anomaly. Multi-generational households have existed & made sense all through history.

Heck, what 25 something could AFFORD their own house anymore?? And what 'boomer' can afford to heat theirs? Sticking together is the only way to survive.

What to do with the cars when nobody drives cars anymore?

Use them for planters. They get warm enough in the winter you could definitely start a crop of tomato seedlings. Those suckers are great solar heat collectors anytime of year.

What to do with the cars when nobody drives cars anymore?

Use them for planters. They get warm enough in the winter you could definitely start a crop of tomato seedlings. Those suckers are great solar heat collectors anytime of year.

Recycle them into bicycles...I bet there is enough steel in ONE SUV to make 150+ bicycles and still have some stuff left over.:lol:

Aaron:)