General Cycling Discussion - A Century in 5 hours???

I have noted around the forums that many people try to get a century (160km) done in 5 hours or less.

I have only done 2 centuries, both so far over the 5 hours I am too embarressed to say how long.

But one of my goals this year is to do a Century every single month of the year - the first one being in 2 weeks time.

One of my long term goals is to also do the Century in 5 hours or less. When I first saw this achievment on the net, I barely believed it, and even now I cannot work out it can be done. From my maths, you would have to average 32kph or slightly more. To do this, you would need to have a ride speed of around 40kph.

My first question - do these speeds seem about right?

Secondly - is the 5 hours the actual ride time (as reported by the bike computer), or the overall time for the ride, including stops, etc?

For those hardy souls who have actually done this super human feat - can you give me some pointers? What speed do you aim to sit on? Do you stop much? What do you eat, when?

I have done countless 100km rides, and 2 Centuries, so I am not a complete novice at this. But I have never done a ride of this sort when time is an issue. The only goal was to finish.

I am not a racer or anything - I am just a weekend warrior who does this for fitness. And I am 52 and way overweight - which is why I am riding the bike in the first place. I can currently average around 30kph for rides up to around 50km. I have not done any longer rides at these sorts of speeds as the club I ride with does not do this sort of ride.

I know the century at this sort of average is way past me at the moment - but perhaps at the end of this year?? I am hoping...

I've done it - year before last, solo. About 4hrs 45min. Eat on the bike and don't stop. The course I did it on was fairly flat - the only stop I had was for about 1 min. to pee. I rode quite a bit that year including a double in 11.5 - I hope to do better this year. Also, both those rides were on a SS. Last year I did a century and it took me 12.25 hours - it was off road and included ~18 - 19K feet of climbing.

Also - I always tell myself "the faster I go, the sooner the pain will stop.

Don't over train. That's very important - nothing worse than working your ass off and geting slower (I'm speaking from experience).

the key to your goal is not stopping, or stopping as little as possible. try using a camelbak and waterbottles for hydration and loading up on energy bars and gels for food along the way. you have also got to maintain a decent average speed, or it will never happen. it will all come in time, if you train properly for it. good luck.

Stopping would'nt be a problem as i never stop when i ride but 20mph avg. would be for me.5 hours would be rough.

The majority of people who do "centuries" in under 5 hours are doing them in groups. It isn't impossible to do one solo. However riding in a group will not only keep the speed higher it will keep you fresher with someone to slipstream. Also the time just flies, before you know it, you're finished. On flat terrain with no crazy headwinds, under 5 should be easy. If the terrain is hilly then forget it. Somewhere closer to 5hr 30min is more realistic. The Pro's in the Tour Down Under, will do a rolling hill century in 3hrs 30min. Yep 45kph! That's something to aim for.

CHEERS.

Mark

the key to your goal is not stopping, or stopping as little as possible. try using a camelbak and waterbottles for hydration and loading up on energy bars and gels for food along the way.


Just what I do now. I use a cameblback and also energy gels.



you have also got to maintain a decent average speed, or it will never happen. it will all come in time, if you train properly for it. good luck.

So what sort of average speed are we looking at here? From your experience.

I do not actually do any training. I just do the normal club rides that come up (ie 50-100km group rides at social paces), plus I plan to just do these century rides once a month. I do not race - so I do not do any training of that sort.

The majority of people who do "centuries" in under 5 hours are doing them in groups. It isn't impossible to do one solo. However riding in a


Good point, and now that you mention it, fairly obvious.

I hope to do these rides in a small group also. The problem is to get riders who want to travel at the same speed - and I think if I asked for volunteers to ride at 35kph, I would be riding by myself. The best I could hope for are riders who want to sit on 28kph or so. This is the speed we usually travel at on club rides, and this is simply not fast enough. Still, I live in hope and I may be able to find some-one.



group will not only keep the speed higher it will keep you fresher with someone to slipstream. Also the time just flies, before you know it, you're finished. On flat terrain with no crazy headwinds, under 5 should be easy.


The ride is fairly flat - not an ironing board - but the worst is rolling hills.

This is the speed we usually travel at on club rides, and this is simply not fast enough.
It might be time to find another group to ride with, at least for some rides. Around Brisbane there should heaps of groups you could hook up with.

CHEERS.

Mark

It might be time to find another group to ride with, at least for some rides. Around Brisbane there should heaps of groups you could hook up with.
Mark

Actually, I have thought about this a lot. The problem is I do not think I am good enough yet to move to one of the 'cafe racer' groups. And in fact, I have no interest at all in racing - which is my impression of these faster clubs.

I could certainly be wrong as I have not actually met any of these faster groups except on the road. There are certainly no clubs with websites that I could find. Most seem to be tied to bike shops, and are some sort of "training" ride for triathalons or the like.

It is a worry - if anyone DOES know of a road bike group in Brisbane that does NOT simply do flat out training rides, then please let me know!

It is a worry - if anyone DOES know of a road bike group in Brisbane that does NOT simply do flat out training rides, then please let me know!

From my observations on the Coast, your biggest problem will be finding a group that actually does rides anywhere near century length. 10 of my 13 centuries last year were totally solo.

From my observations on the Coast, your biggest problem will be finding a group that actually does rides anywhere near century length

Well, with the BBTA, you can put on your own rides. A very good system. We have a VERY varied calendar (some 4-6 different rides every weekend). I am putting on a few centuries, and some other people are too - so we will definately be putting on a century ride every month this year. The first 5 have already been planned and set in concrete (ie the ride calendar has already gone to the printer). We even have a 300km coming up in May I intend trying.

My problem is finding riders that are willing to travel at the faster speeds I want to go at. Most BBTA rides average around 20 kph or so, with a lot of social stops, etc. This is fine for 30km rides, but not these longer ones.

I vaguely hope that I can use these rides to get my speed up to such a point that I can do the century in 5 hours by the end of this year. Perhaps it is a vain hope, but it is a noble goal nevertheless.

Would it not depend upon what kind of terrain? Here we have plenty of mountains.. As one interested in touring, of which bike friends are about to cross the US, I would hope for many 100 mile day..By that I mean the easy days in flat states-through the plains. Hope 100 mile days in such terrain is not a knock out..Because in long distance touring, I count on doing many and often. Flat terrain, 100 miles- I hope that is considered easy.?
Not sure about Brisbane..
Last year I did a 104 miles in 6 1/2 hours, but with about 4.000 feet of climbing.

It's going to depend on how fit (and stubborn) you and your mates are. Remember when you're touring that you're carrying plenty more gear and by the road repairs are more likely to be needed (three broken spokes in one day on separate occasions set us back about two and a half hours once). But on the other hand time isn't too much of an issue unless you want to do lots else during the day. Don't forget that you'll be doing it day-in, day-out as well which will take it's toll.

My advice would be to give yourself plenty of time to enjoy the trip rather than having to watch the odometer the whole journey.

When I finished my first century, I didn't care about the time. I was just happy to have done it. But, doing a century at my age (57) is like climbing Mt. Fuji. If you do it once, you are an idiot. If you do it twice, you're a bigger idiot.

I must be a bigger idiot because I am going to do it again, and try it to get down near about 6 hrs, 30 minutes. My chances of getting it down to 5 hours are pretty slim, but not impossible. I will just have to sustain idiocy longer.

My goal for this year is to do an under 5 hour century.
Maybe I'm fudging the results here but I am talking
about in the saddle time, not elapsed clock time.
I figure that total elapsed for me will be around
5hrs 30min.
I hope to do it on Organized ride ( HHH in August).
Marty

I thought the goal was four hours or less in a peleton.

The two key ride-day points have been mentioned... Stopping and hooking up with a good group. Personally, I prefer traveling light and comfortable with brief stops, typically for fluids, both in and out ;). Hooking up with the right group takes some good self-knowledge. What feels like a good, invigorating pace early on may leave you toasted at mile 75. If you begin to suspect it's too fast for you, it is. Let 'em go and hook up with a slower group. That beats the 25 mile death march to the finish after you're toasted been dropped. Also, you want a group with the same mindset (willing to stop, etc.).

The other piece is preparation, which includes training and pre-ride tapering, rest and nutrition.

I think there's been some good discussion in the past... you might do a search in Training and Nutrition and Road Cycling.

When I finished my first century, I didn't care about the time. I was just happy to have done it. But, doing a century at my age (57) is like climbing Mt. Fuji. If you do it once, you are an idiot. If you do it twice, you're a bigger idiot.

I must be a bigger idiot because I am going to do it again, and try it to get down near about 6 hrs, 30 minutes. My chances of getting it down to 5 hours are pretty slim, but not impossible. I will just have to sustain idiocy longer.

What a brilliant set of observations! My thoughts exactly.

Actually, the "idiot" bit I can quite agree with. My first century took almost 12 hours - it was terrible - but it was very hilly and it nearly killed me (at least I thought so at the time). Most of the trip I was cursing myself for the stupidity of being there. I would have pulled out if I had the chance - but we were way out in the country with absolutely no way to get back except on the bikes, so there was no choice at all.

My second century was a breeze - fairly flat and a good day, if a bit warm. I was actually annoyed that we went so slowly, and I did it in 8 hours. I could easily have done it in 7, I think.

I find that ANY ride over about 80km is a pain in the butt - literally. The fun goes out of it at around this point, and it becomes a challenge. But why do it?? I do it to lose weight - really no other reason. I have already lost 25kg - I want to lose another 15 kg at least. I am currently at 103kg, and I am 51 years old. I find short rides fairly useless for losing weight - anything less than 100km I can even gain weight during a ride.

And at the back of my mind somewhere is the goal of doing it in 5 hours - that would be something...

My advice would be to give yourself plenty of time to enjoy the trip rather than having to watch the odometer the whole journey.

I did two centuries last year - so I know I can do the distance ok. My main reason for doing them is to simply get in a LOT of base miles so I can lose weight. If I can achieve other goals at the same time, then that is a bonus. One goal is to do a century every month this year (which I hope to do), and the other goal is to finally do it in 5 hours (or less). Noble goals, and I hope ones thta will help to motivate me while my butt is aching out there on the bike.

While there have been some VERY good comments in this thread, especially about not stopping, etc, no one has actually mentioned what speeds you need to travel at to actually make the magic 5 hour barrier.

For those who have beaten the 5 hour limit - what speeds did you actually sit on. And what was your final average speed?

100 miles in 5 hours is an average speed of 20 miles per hour. Yikes!!! 20 mph = 33 kph. And that is assuming you never stop to rest/eat/urinate/whatever. If you do stop, make it quick and get back on the bike.

100 miles in 5 hours is an average speed of 20 miles per hour. Yikes!!! 20 mph = 33 kph. And that is assuming you never stop to rest/eat/urinate/whatever. If you do stop, make it quick and get back on the bike.

That is exactly why I want to know what the REAL average must be - taking into account such things as stops, etc.

More to the point - what speed to you have to try to sit on to maintain this sort of average - I am thinking of around 35-40kph as much as possible. Correct?

kneighbor........Under rolling terrain, I've done it in under 5 hours riding in a small group taking turns pulling, but doing it solo is a whole different story....

George

That is exactly why I want to know what the REAL average must be - taking into account such things as stops, etc.

More to the point - what speed to you have to try to sit on to maintain this sort of average - I am thinking of around 35-40kph as much as possible. Correct?


It depends how much you want to stop. A five hour century with 1/2 hour worth of stopping and your average needs to be 35.7kph. With an hour off the bike, you need to average 40.2kph while riding.

While there have been some VERY good comments in this thread, especially about not stopping, etc, no one has actually mentioned what speeds you need to travel at to actually make the magic 5 hour barrier.

For those who have beaten the 5 hour limit - what speeds did you actually sit on. And what was your final average speed?

When I did mine I was at 23-24 most of the time - one climb I was sitting at 16-17 for about 3 miles, but that same three miles I was going over 35 on the way back.

I thought the goal was four hours or less in a peleton.

I always do centuries on my own and even if I do get into a pack I stay on the front ( first 3-5 men/women pulling the group) or I don't ride in it. If the front runner does not rotate out enough for my taste then I will get on the front and raise the pace to 30mph or close to it and blow the group apart until we have a strong group only.

Wheel sucking parasites that go to organized centuries and claim 4, 4.5 or sub 5 hour centuries are normally full of BS. If they had to ride that century solo they would be lucky to break 6 hours.

I have done sub 5's alone, I mean all alone. My best solo was a 4:48 a few years back. I do not give much credit to anyone saying they did such and such century in under such and such time because they could have easily been one of the dozens of wheel sucking parasites who never got up front to pull or only did so for a few miles at best.

I am going to do a sub 6 hour century this year pulling my daughter.

"Wheel sucking parasites that go to organized centuries and claim 4, 4.5 or sub 5 hour centuries are normally full of BS. If they had to ride that century solo they would be lucky to break 6 hours.

I have done sub 5's alone, I mean all alone. My best solo was a 4:48 a few years back. I do not give much credit to anyone saying they did such and such century in under such and such time because they could have easily been one of the dozens of wheel sucking parasites who never got up front to pull or only did so for a few miles at best"

My best non-stop century this summer was solo. Rolling course.... 3 6% climbs of roughly 800 ft. So not huge climbs, but climbs nevertheless.

I did the century solo in 4 hours 13 min 26 seconds. This was a USCF sanctioned event and my time was recorded and is posted online at the race site. This year I will be looking for a sub 4 hour century. With the new bike coming..... I will have a very good chance. The extra training for the event shouldn't hurt me either.

I'm like you.....don't like to draft.....would rather put a hurting on the rest of the group behind me.

If they had to ride that century solo they would be lucky to break 6 hours.

I agree - do it right, do it alone.



I am going to do a sub 6 hour century this year pulling my daughter.

That would be incredible - even if you wheel suck. Keep us posted.

I wish I could draft but I am too tall and sit too upright. I get no benefit from tailing another rider. I do, however, make one heck of a wind break for anyone that wants to follow me :-)

Food is easy to eat along the way. Gels, bars, or PB&J sandwiches (my favorite). I use a water pack to stay hydrated. My usual solo centuries are 5.5-6 hours. I rode one the good size rolling hills, with one other guy, in under 5. It was hard. But staying hydrated & fed are key, and a water pack makes that easier to do without lots of stops.

Well, with the BBTA, you can put on your own rides. A very good system. We have a VERY varied calendar (some 4-6 different rides every weekend). I am putting on a few centuries, and some other people are too - so we will definately be putting on a century ride every month this year. The first 5 have already been planned and set in concrete (ie the ride calendar has already gone to the printer). We even have a 300km coming up in May I intend trying.

I guess the question is what sort of numbers you expect to go with you. Sure, you can plan the ride easily enough - I do that sort of thing on the Bicycle Gold Coast calendar myself. However, I find it hard to attract even five riders on many of my rides - even something relatively short like Springbrook.

Incidentally, where can I find out about this 300km ride? I did 293km in a day back in 2002, and that was quite hilly (Mullumbimby/Nimbin area) and included some dirt roads.


My problem is finding riders that are willing to travel at the faster speeds I want to go at. Most BBTA rides average around 20 kph or so, with a lot of social stops, etc. This is fine for 30km rides, but not these longer ones.

I think all you can do is put a note somewhere in the ride description indicating the pace you intend to aim for. Of course, this still brings us to the numbers problem mentioned above.

I rode five centuries last year that ranged from just under seven hours to just under 5 hours. The sub five hour century was in Savanna GA where Irealy wanted to do sub four but never made it onto the lead pack. The rest I jest went along to enjoy the ride and rode whatever pace felt good.

Wheel sucking parasites that go to organized centuries and claim 4, 4.5 or sub 5 hour centuries are normally full of BS. If they had to ride that century solo they would be lucky to break 6 hours.

I am a wheel sucking parasite (who takes pulls) but
I still want to do a Sub 5 hour imperial century.
:D

Marty

It's going to depend on how fit (and stubborn) you and your mates are. Remember when you're touring that you're carrying plenty more gear and by the road repairs are more likely to be needed (three broken spokes in one day on separate occasions set us back about two and a half hours once). But on the other hand time isn't too much of an issue unless you want to do lots else during the day. Don't forget that you'll be doing it day-in, day-out as well which will take it's toll.

My advice would be to give yourself plenty of time to enjoy the trip rather than having to watch the odometer the whole journey.
By hoping to do several 100 mile plus days on a tour,it's intent is to cross the US in less than two months..50 mile days it is more than three months..
The secret about long distance touring..Take a break..At least one day a week or your fellow bikes will turn into enemies. But on easy days through the plains, lets have a little concern for how big North America is.. Easy terrain maybe several 110 mile days..Maybe through the Rockies maybe even a 45 mile day.Take it as it goes. But I would like to complete it is less than two months..What the RAAM record for crossing North America is about a week?

I did 13 centuries last year. None of the saddle times came close to 5 miles. I did my first in 8 hours, my second was a 10 hour ride that almost had me quit for good, I road with the wind on the way out and had a head wind up hill battle the whole way home. I've managed to get the time down over the months, I think saddle time was about 6.5. I am looking forward to getting out there this weekend, on a fixed gear, just for bragging rights.

The best century I had was one I hooked up with a guy I met on the WWW. We had a great time, and time did pass quickly. I was the better rider, it hurt him, and at the 80-90 mile mark we were both feeling it. It was rolling country side. My favorite was the ride to Rochester and back, back to back centuries. The most painful was 3 months ago, it was also the longest elapsed time, as I put an eight hour shift in the middle of it. I'd riden 45 miles on the way to work and thought, what the heck, I'm still fresh I'll do another 55+ tonight. Well, the weather turned sour, the wind kicked up and it began to rain, frozen beads. I wasn't dressed for it, and it stung all the way home. I did it though.
I would like to do some brevets this year, and work to the double century as well. I was also thinking of cranking out a century while I was in Tucson in February, anyone there wanna join up?

There are certainly no clubs with websites that I could find.

if anyone DOES know of a road bike group in Brisbane that does NOT simply do flat out training rides, then please let me know!

Try this site http://www.cycle2max.com in the top left hand corner click on "In your area" then follow the links. Not all the links are active but you might find one that suits you.

The site is made buy a friend in South Aust, worth looking at especially for hill climbers.

CHEERS.

Mark

Well, what speed do you have to cruise?

It depends on the course and it depends on the terrain. Hills make a high average speed much tougher.

I had a 30 mile course I did. It had a few spots where one had to stop. Out of curiousity I tried the following trick. I rode the course a few times and just let my computer roll. That way, I got deducted for the slowing down and speeding up. On several other rides, I turned off the computer before I had to slow down for traffic obstructions and only turned it back on when I regained my cruising speed. That made a difference in average speed of 2 mph. I cruised around 22-23 mph. In order to average 20 mph, you pretty much have to cruise at 22-23 mph and maybe faster.

On my centuries, I do not deduct time for stops. I keep my stops short as reasonably possible but I think it is a bit nuts to deduct time spent replenishing water bottles and urinating.

Now, I have just averaged under 5 hours solo about 3 times.

If you draft in a large group it is far, far, far easier. I was in one large group. The group was 3 abreast and there was a small spearhead up front that was doing the pulling and I was back a ways. There was no real rotation. Some of the cyclists were not really smooth so I only got to check the speed when we slowed down some and when we were going a bit "slow", we were going 26+ mph. So I figured, I am just going to hang on until I run out of water. I really was not working hard. I ran out of water at 65 miles and had to stop to refill and I had a 24 average speed at that time. I ended up with a 22 average. I did the rest solo into a mild headwind. It wasn't even a particularly hard ride.

Another time I was with a group and had to drop out at 65 miles. This time I hooked in with some similarly strong riders and was in a paceline and I got to do some of the pulling. That time the average was 23 mph.

Both of the above centuries were pretty flat by the way. But breaking 5 hours solo was harder then either of the rides I mentioned above and I was in better shape on the solo rides to boot and in more challenging terrain.

The average speed turned in on a century really does not tell you much.

and work to the double century as well.


By double century, do you mean 200 miles straight up?? Or is it a century one day, then a century the next, or sometihng like tha?

To much trouble to stop,start computer to make your avg look better or more true,whichever.Doesnt the computer stop working when you stop anyway?I know some riders reset it after the warmup but to me thats part of my ride,warmup and cool down.My computer starts when i leave my driveway and stops when i get home but thats me.Hey,maybe thats why my rides only avg 15-16 every ride.I might really be doing 25mph avg.

My best non-stop century this summer was solo. Rolling course.... 3 6% climbs of roughly 800 ft. So not huge climbs, but climbs nevertheless.

I did the century solo in 4 hours 13 min 26 seconds. This was a USCF sanctioned event and my time was recorded and is posted online at the race site. This year I will be looking for a sub 4 hour century. With the new bike coming..... I will have a very good chance. The extra training for the event shouldn't hurt me either.

I'm like you.....don't like to draft.....would rather put a hurting on the rest of the group behind me.

Fantastic Lowracer! Too many hills around here for me to turn that kind of time.
But even on a flat I don't think I'd break into sub 4:30's now. I've gotten sodded in my old age ;). But currently my goals for the year are to do the kiddie cart pull in 6 or less. After that I will focus on mountain biking. Our annual 24hour race at the GIHP will be my main concern.

I never did centuries when i raced my mountain bike so I don't know my potential best could have been. I'd say close to a 4:15- 4:30 based on my averages back then on shorter courses.

4:13 is awesome dude! Great job!

I am a wheel sucking parasite (who takes pulls) but
I still want to do a Sub 5 hour imperial century.
:D

Marty

Sorry Marty, no offense but I am refering to those who do NO pulling of any significance then run around telling everyone how fast they are.

I did a century one year where I had organized a decent group (Ithought) but I ended up pulling for 70 miles of the whole thing. When we took off and I stepped up front nobody was expecting to cruise at 23-27 MPH and many dropped off. I'd just ask for a break about once every 20 minutes or so from the others and was lucky to get that. Unfortunately I bonked in the last 8 miles but we still turned 4:41 after averaging about 15mph the last 8. My friends were happy with that but the real kicker was turning the first 50 miles in 2:05. I was happy with that since I was pulling almost all the front 50.

You can suck my wheel anytime you want but when I need a short break you'll have to go up ;). And I'm not as fast as I was so no worries.

Sam,
I'd be honored, and no offense taken.
May have to swing east for some of those organized rides. I'd bet you could crack the 4:15 here, its virtually
flat.
Marty

Sam,
I'd be honored, and no offense taken.
May have to swing east for some of those organized rides. I'd bet you could crack the 4:15 here, its virtually
flat.
Marty

But Texas has some god awful winds to deal with pretty regularly.

By double century, do you mean 200 miles straight up?? Or is it a century one day, then a century the next, or sometihng like tha?
Straight up or on the rocks, I don't care how I do it, just so I can say I did it. Of course that will lead to a double in the friggin' cold of a MN winter.
What I'm really shooting for is the Paris Brest Paris in 07. I think that sort of challenge would be awesome!

By double century, do you mean 200 miles straight up?? Or is it a century one day, then a century the next, or sometihng like tha?

To me, a double century is 200 miles in one day. And it is not riding 100 miles starting at 1pm and then sleeping and getting up early the next day and riding 100 miles and finishing before noon so you did the 200 in a 24 hour time interval. It is 200 miles in one ride.

Centuries on consecutive days are just that centuries on consecutive days or often called "back to back" centuries.

To much trouble to stop,start computer to make your avg look better or more true,whichever.Doesnt the computer stop working when you stop anyway?I know some riders reset it after the warmup but to me thats part of my ride,warmup and cool down.My computer starts when i leave my driveway and stops when i get home but thats me.Hey,maybe thats why my rides only avg 15-16 every ride.I might really be doing 25mph avg.


I did this just because I was fooling around and I wanted something to help pass the time. And in those days, computers either ran or did not run. This computer was not smart enough to cut off at 0 mph. But that was the only time I bothered with this. I never do it on normal rides or even rides when I am trying for a high average. Whatever happens, happens.

The results I got suggested that rides with lots of stop signs and busy cross streets would be impossible to get high average speeds on and that has been my experience.

I did this just because I was fooling around and I wanted something to help pass the time. And in those days, computers either ran or did not run. This computer was not smart enough to cut off at 0 mph. But that was the only time I bothered with this. I never do it on normal rides or even rides when I am trying for a high average. Whatever happens, happens.

The results I got suggested that rides with lots of stop signs and busy cross streets would be impossible to get high average speeds on and that has been my experience.
Is that important to get a high avg speed?

Is that important to get a high avg speed?

Not really. If you occasionally do a time trial of 10 miles or more at full throttle you will see where you stand as far as solo capabilities go.

I have an 11 mile uninterupted stretch of road near me that is rolling but no significant climbs where I can test my legs.

I also have a 20 mile loop i do where traffic is low so even though there are 6 intersections with stops I usually only have to slow to about 10 mph unless cars are coming.

Average speed is a decent indicator of ones ability to sustain high power output but don't get too hung up on the numbers. Fluctuations of 1-1.5 mph on a familiar course are pretty normal depending on conditions and traffic obstructions.

Not really. If you occasionally do a time trial of 10 miles or more at full throttle you will see where you stand as far as solo capabilities go.

I have an 11 mile uninterupted stretch of road near me that is rolling but no significant climbs where I can test my legs.

I also have a 20 mile loop i do where traffic is low so even though there are 6 intersections with stops I usually only have to slow to about 10 mph unless cars are coming.

Average speed is a decent indicator of ones ability to sustain high power output but don't get too hung up on the numbers. Fluctuations of 1-1.5 mph on a familiar course are pretty normal depending on conditions and traffic obstructions.
We have that here.A bike path seperated from cars,its not even by a road.You can go north from where i am 25 miles and south about 8 miles with no stops.