Professional Cycling For the Fans - Spoiler Alert!

Has Sastre gained enough time to win this years tour?

I'll let you know on saturday, until then nothing that anyone says on here will matter.

Not enough. Evans is still in the virtual yellow jersey.

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Regards

Nope.
Too bad theres no time bonuses....
I think there should be, so the GC guys have more incentive to sprint to the finish and win a stage.

with enough pressure on the yellow maybe evans will rasmussen up his TT on saturday and sastre will take it. you never know...

Doubt it.

evans will put a 2.5 minutes into sastre over 50km

i don't think carlos has enough time to win it all.

i, for one, am glad there are no time bonuses. win the thing straight up. i think cadel had more than enough incentive to go as hard as possible all the way to the line. i think carlos had a hell of a lot of incentive, too

and i think evans rode an extremely smart climb. i'm sure he had a time that he was willing to give sastres, to the second, and he was willing to live with that. this meant he didn't have to do the hard work until 8 kilometers were behind him. he knows he's not a pure climber, so giving up the time allowed him to wait as long as possible before he absolutely had to turn himself inside out. and i think he did; did you see him come to a complete stop just across the line and slump over his bars?

General classification after stage 17

1 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Saxo Bank
2 Fränk Schleck (Lux) CSC-Saxo Bank 1.24
3 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner 1.33
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence-Lotto 1.34
5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 2.39

Some estimate that Evans will be +3 min better than Sastre and F. Schleck on the final TT.

So Evans could win by 1½ min. 2. and 3. place will be very close, perhaps will neither Sastre or F. Schleck be on the podium if Kohl is any good on a TT. Menchov will probably get second place because he is the best TT'er after Evans.

Of course, there race is actual decided on race day. Wind, weather, freshness, mechanical failures may still decide the outcome, but things looks very good for Evans.
It is not that Evans don't deserve a win; he is among the best climbers and TT'ers in the peloton, it is just that he is a rather boring rider that prefers to hide in the group. I also dislike riders that says that they rather not have the Yellow Jersey until the last race day.

Next year I want a TTT and perhaps some time bonus for winning mountain stages, so that attacking riders gets some benefit over wheelsuckers.

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Regards

Well, Sastre lost 1:16 to Evans on the first TT.

VDV needs to really nail a big one in the TT if he is to move into the top 5 or better. Such a shame on the crash yesterday or he might have locked in a podium today.

does this milk smell bad?

In 1998, everyone theorized how much Marco Pantani would lose to Pavel Tonkov in the final Giro TT...and then "pink jersey fever" took over and he ended up beating Tonkov. Sure, you might claim that chemical assistance may have helped, but there is a psychological boost to holding the lead and knowing the time splits of the riders ahead of you.

In 1998, everyone theorized how much Marco Pantani would lose to Pavel Tonkov in the final Giro TT...and then "pink jersey fever" took over and he ended up beating Tonkov. Sure, you might claim that chemical assistance may have helped, but there is a psychological boost to holding the lead and knowing the time splits of the riders ahead of you.

agreed, but you still have to go with a guy who's better at the TT discipline. nothing's guaranteed, but it's sure the way to bet

The next two stages are not exactly flat, I would expect CSC to keep looking for more time

Unless something unforseen happens, Evans will mark them and won't let them go.

I think Greg will bring out some of that new aerodynamic stuff and beat Fignon by
about10 seconds.
wait, is that what we're discussing?
or was it "the Look'?

Marty

Well, Sastre lost 1:16 to Evans on the first TT.

He has yellow and 1:34 time to his advantage: The yellow jersey has always proven to be the ultimate motivator.

He has not gotten as banged up as many of the others. Evans crashed and may not be totally recovered to perform at his highest level. And Menchov is too far back and simply has gotten weaker as the race has continued. This has always been this case with Menchov. Evans is the only real threat and may or may not be in perfect health

Cadel goes 4th Ahead of Sastre. this gives Carlos a better picture of what he needs to do.

Having Franks schleck go ahead of him will prepare him for any inconsistencies on the road and weather changes / Wind Direction / slippery surface etc... which often can decide a Time Trial

Sastre has been working on his Time Trialing very much this year: Julich was quoted as saying he is much improved. Also they have done much reconnaissance on the TT course knowing how important the stage would be.

Sastre gets stronger with the race.

CSC could do more damage in the coming days. if they do not let up until the final day we could have a weaker peleton that may create opportunities

i think it will come down to a handful of secs

Nope.
Too bad theres no time bonuses....
I think there should be, so the GC guys have more incentive to sprint to the finish and win a stage.

I'm glad the time bonuses are no more.

Sastre should not get an added bonus for the work his team did. The bonus is his placement in the GC based on the race. The race is what matters, not an artificial addition. Evans' reward for getting pounded by CSC day after day is that he has ridden well enough that he is in position to retake the yellow in the ITT.

Sure, I would like to see Cadel be more aggressive on the course. No one, though, can fault him for riding a smart race. He has weathered the CSC attacks and is in position to cash in. I am also no fan of the ITT deciding the race. I get around this by realizing that Cadel's win (if it happens) was facilitated by his positioning over the entire tour, including the ITT. The yellow goes to the rider who gets to the line in the quickest composite time. If that turns out to be Cadel, I'll tip my cap to him.

Now if Sastre's lead holds -- well that just makes the story better. Team put the captain in position to win. Captain puts it on himself to win. That's that.

i don't think carlos has enough time to win it all.

i, for one, am glad there are no time bonuses. win the thing straight up. i think cadel had more than enough incentive to go as hard as possible all the way to the line. i think carlos had a hell of a lot of incentive, too

and i think evans rode an extremely smart climb. i'm sure he had a time that he was willing to give sastres, to the second, and he was willing to live with that. this meant he didn't have to do the hard work until 8 kilometers were behind him. he knows he's not a pure climber, so giving up the time allowed him to wait as long as possible before he absolutely had to turn himself inside out. and i think he did; did you see him come to a complete stop just across the line and slump over his bars?

Yeah, he was out of breath from all that wheel sucking.;)

I think Greg will bring out some of that new aerodynamic stuff and beat Fignon by
about10 seconds.
wait, is that what we're discussing?
or was it "the Look'?

Marty

I put the Sastre ? in the title which has now been edited. Sorry if it upset anyone, that was such a noob mistake
:banned:

I put the Sastre ? in the title which has now been edited. Sorry if it upset anyone, that was such a noob mistake
:banned:

We forgive ya...hell, it's only the Tour, it's not like it's life and death or something.

Or is it? :o

Yeah, he was out of breath from all that wheel sucking.;)

:lol: okay, one for you

I put the Sastre ? in the title which has now been edited. Sorry if it upset anyone, that was such a noob mistake

I never realised that the title could be considered a spoiler and was pretty confused about where the thread had gone.
I really understand that people who can only watch the TdF timeshifted don't want any information on the race before they have seen it themselves. OTOH it never made sense to me that the same people were looking in this TdF specific forum before they turned on their Tivo.

I think that this "no-spoiler" moderation policy benefit few, but hampers many. It must also make the moderaters job more demanding that they have to be vigilant about this too when people are making an honest mistake.

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Regards

Having the yellow jersey in the final TT have made riders rise to the occasion but looking at past results below he's going to need a major miracle. He may well loose second place to Menchov also.

Dauphiné Libéré '08
1 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 31km 44.59.78
3 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence-Lotto 0.20
65 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 3.52

TDF'08
1. Stefan Schumacher (GER), Gerolsteiner, 29.5km in 35:44
4. Cadel Evans (AUS), Silence-Lotto, at 0:27
28. Carlos Sastre (ESP), CSC, at 1:43

TDF '07
1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 55.5km 1.02.44 (53.068 km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 0.51
16 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.24

This is going to be exciting! I'm thinking he needs to knock 2 minutes off his previous 50K TT time and that brings it down to a nail biting "1989-deja-vu-all-over-again" scenario. Toss in a flat tire for Evans and man oh man, I'm gonna be yelling at the TV. Well, I probably will be anyway, but you know what I mean!