Road Bike Racing - TT power Target Help

I am hoping you guys can help me decide what power I should try to push for a 40k individual TT this Saturday. The course is quite flat but can be windy.

I plan to try my tt position tonight (on my road bike - aero bars and dual position seat post) to get used to it and can also try the power target and see if I can hold it for an hour. Yes, I know I should have more time to adapt to the position but this kind of snuck up on me ... thought I had a couple more weeks.

So, here is my power curve. What should I target for my split out and back? And please don't laugh at my curve, I'm old, slow, fat, and have been off over 5 months this year with injuries. :o I haven't tried to push 10 minute or more max intervals so I'm hoping my power curve is a little understated at the longer times? Hoping ????

http://www.pbase.com/image/102904375/original.jpg

Other than being enormous, the graph isn't very useful. Avg power over an hour if you didn't TT that hour isn't a great representation of that duration.

I agree with Nomad, but since you wanted an answer I will give one. Start at 240 watts and do that for the first ten minutes. If it's good, bump it up another 10 watts every ten minutes unless you are well over your LTHR or you feel like you are going to blow up.

The better idea? Either go off of HR or RPE and ignore the power. you simply do not have enough data to make a call on target power if you haven't gotten ANY rides in on the TT bike.

Nomad, can you guesstimate what I should target? The minute power is pretty accurate. Can you extrapolate at all? My plan was to try to get a good target and try it tonight. I really only have tonight as I want to easy/rest from Wednesday on with no sustained big efforts.

The graph shows I can do about 250 watts for an hour without purposefully trying. So does 275 watts sound reasonable? I really don't know how high to aim for tonights "dry run" and I only have one shot at it before my race.

If you're going to go out tonight and do a "pacing effort," do the next best thing and do a 5 minute "all out" effort, rest for about 5 minutes or so, and then do a 20-30 minute all out effort. Everything you've got. You can more readily extrapolate from that 20-30 minute effort than take the risk of blowing up in a 1 hr attempt.

Or, get on the your bike/trainer and do a MAP test if you think you feel fresh. I can tell you that FTP is usually around 76-78% of MAP, and a MAP test only takes ~11 minutes. Then you can have a better swag.

The honest answer is that your power data is currently too insufficient. Barring testing yourself, heart rate or RPE are the ways to hopefully not overreach early.

Thanks Dr. and Nomad.

I rode 50 miles hard on Saturday, and 75 miles OK on Sunday so I'm sure I'm not fully recharged. I'm 47 and have only been back on the bike for 5 weeks after being off for 8 weeks with a broken collarbone.

I can ride for an pretty long time at 90-92% mhr without going anaerobic. Should I rely on that more since my power profile is so incomplete? If I do the 20-30 minute max effort tonight (and this does sound smarter than possibly blowing the full hour Nomad), would that be more reliable?

Or, get on the your bike/trainer and do a MAP test if you think you feel fresh. I can tell you that FTP is usually around 76-78% of MAP, and a MAP test only takes ~11 minutes. Then you can have a better swag.

When you do a MAP test what are the steps / intervals you use? Different people recommend different combinations. 20-25w seems to be the consensus (although I've seen higher), but the interval time seems to very, sometimes 1 minute, but I've also seen 3 minutes.

I do the 5 watts/12 seconds that Ric Stern advocates. (12 watts/min)

I agree with Nomad, but since you wanted an answer I will give one. Start at 240 watts and do that for the first ten minutes. If it's good, bump it up another 10 watts every ten minutes unless you are well over your LTHR or you feel like you are going to blow up.

The better idea? Either go off of HR or RPE and ignore the power. you simply do not have enough data to make a call on target power if you haven't gotten ANY rides in on the TT bike.

+1

I'd probably start lower though, like 220W, unless you just know you're much stronger than that.


I do the 5 watts/12 seconds that Ric Stern advocates. (12 watts/min)

+1 this is the protocol I've been using for the last three months. I'm starting at 125W.

I do the 5 watts/12 seconds that Ric Stern advocates. (12 watts/min)

I did see that one.

I would be doing this on a Kurt Kinetic Road Machine and backing out the power numbers. Not perfect, but the formula for doing so seems to correspond well with actual power testing I've done at least for fairly steady state efforts. Adding 5w at a time may be better than doing 20w jumps.

Thanks guys but I'm confused. My chart shows I have done 215 watts for 2 hours, and 235 watts for 1 hour without really trying hard. What is the purpose of the test? Why do I want to start at only 220? Or are you trying to build in some fatigue? Once I get to where I can't go 10 more watts, what does that tell me?

So, should I do the 10 minute, 10 watt ramp up or the 30 minute hard effort? Which is better (for my limited test time)? Why? Or, should i just use heart rate (since it's a flat course it should be a pretty good indicator, no?)?

Sorry for all the questions, I'm still pretty new to the power game.

I think I just mis-read your chart because it's wider than my notebook screen :)

The point is to pick a power that you're "positive" you can hold for an hour. Pick the one that the highest you think you could possibly hold, and back 10 or 15W off that. Start there, and make adjustments at 20:00, 30:00, and 40:00 as needed. It should feel pretty easy for the first 5 minutes, then you should start to feel the breathing getting a bit more intense.

So, should I do the 10 minute, 10 watt ramp up or the 30 minute hard effort? Which is better (for my limited test time)? Why? Or, should i just use hear rate (since it's a flat course it should be a pretty good indicator, no?)?

That's personal preference, really. I've never "tested" well at the longer durations. I can ride like hell for as long as I need, provided I'm not thinking about how long it has been hurting (something I hope to work on this winter in my pursuit of TT excellence). But, that's why I've always loved the graduated MAP test, because once you get warmed up, it's ramp till you explode and then cool down.

If you're particularly new to power training, I would recommend a pacing strategy you're familiar with - if you've done heart rate before, do it again. If you've never really paced anything before, then anything you try will be better than nothing.

Any test you try for the first time will likely be less than your best possible as you "learn" the test protocol and pacing for it. The first MAP test I did was 419. A week and a half later I did 452 because I knew the suffering that was about to ensue.

The same will hold true for pretty much any effort of any length. Heck, we even debate what the best way to get a 1 minute power is. Intuitively, you would think "just go really hard for a minute," but I think everyone will agree there is a good way and bad way to get a best 1 minute for each individual's strengths.

If this is sounding really really complicated, the short answer is probably to do the 5 minute all out followed by 5 minutes rest followed by 20 minutes all out. That will give you a value that you can multiply by ~92-95% and get a reasonable 1 hr power guesstimate.

OK, I think I can do 275 watts. But I'm pulling that out of my arse. I would hate to get there and blow up 3/4 of the way through the race. I'm trying to do a test tonight (in my brand new tt position) that will hopefully be representative of what I can expect to hold for an hour (or so ;)) on Saturday. What should I do to have the best target, be it wattage or % of mhr?

Sorry Nomad, doing my response before I read yours.

That sounds pretty good. Do I again target X watts I think I can hold for the 20 minutes or do I simply keep my self near LT or 95% mhr the whole time?

While you're here, how should I adjust during the race? For example, if after 20 minutes, my hr is at 88% and I feel good, should I bump up the pace a little? How often should I reassess and how much should I change?

Won't hurt to start at 275 and then gradually increase as you go if you feel like you're well within your limits.

So, I should try 300 watts for 20 minutes tonight. If I can hold that, 275 for the race should be in the ballpark.

Hmmm ... 300 watts for 20 minutes is not going to be easy (if even possible) for me. The longest I've done it in my normal riding is about 9 minutes. Oh boy! Sounds like fun tonight. Should I puke now or later? I'll let you all now how it goes of course.

Ithis Saturday...I plan to try my tt position tonight

Danger, as you've noted.

Personally I lose about 20 watts going from road bike to TT bike. Your mileage may vary.

What's your training regimen like?

If the "longest" you've held 300W is 9 mins - then trying to do 275W for 60m is a bit of a stretch. Don't blow yourself up with pre-set expectations...

Like many have said, go for a wattage you are very confident in - so you can finish the race strong and not putter around inf 39X25 in the last miles...

Good luck!

Yeah, it's kind of like negotiating a salary. What you really want to ask the interviewer is, "What is the amount that would make you uncomfortable?"

"$xxx,xxx"

"Ok, my salary requirement is $100 less than that."

:thumb:

I agree with Nomad, but since you wanted an answer I will give one. Start at 240 watts and do that for the first ten minutes. If it's good, bump it up another 10 watts every ten minutes unless you are well over your LTHR or you feel like you are going to blow up.

The better idea? Either go off of HR or RPE and ignore the power. you simply do not have enough data to make a call on target power if you haven't gotten ANY rides in on the TT bike.

Sorry, my response was to the TT. It is doubtful you will learn much of anything useful between now and then. Listen to the others who responded regarding your training up to that point.

And I cannot emphasize enough, with a new position, and a threshold that will force you to be on the bike for over an hour, you do NOT want to start out too hard. That is why I set a 240 watts for the first 10 minutes. Should be really easy, and you won't make yourself blow up in that time. I believe that for the same reason, WR recommended an even lower starting wattage.

I agree with Nomad, but since you wanted an answer I will give one. Start at 240 watts and do that for the first ten minutes. If it's good, bump it up another 10 watts every ten minutes unless you are well over your LTHR or you feel like you are going to blow up.

The better idea? Either go off of HR or RPE and ignore the power. you simply do not have enough data to make a call on target power if you haven't gotten ANY rides in on the TT bike.

+1 just going off of this data this seems to be the best idea.

riddle me this - if one does a MAP test and finds that the ratio of LT to Wmax is lower than .76, is the conclusion that the rider isn't doing enough endurance miles or LT threshold miles or what?

I'm using a trainer to make this estimate, but it seems like over the last year my Wmax has gone up, but my LT stagnated.

But as to the OP - I like doing TTs but only get to do maybe 2 or 3 a year. For 20 minutes I feel like a god. Then I pay dearly for my lack of early race discipline. I would strongly advise holding off on amping up on the power for more than 10 minutes.

riddle me this - if one does a MAP test and finds that the ratio of LT to Wmax is lower than .76, is the conclusion that the rider isn't doing enough endurance miles or LT threshold miles or what?


This subject sounds familiar to me, but I'm drawing a blank. Wmax would be your max power during the MAP, and what you're calling LT would be the 1m MMP (mean maximal power) during the test?

My last test came up at MAP/Wmax=0.89. Is 0.76 a known ratio for some training condition?

riddle me this - if one does a MAP test and finds that the ratio of LT to Wmax is lower than .76, is the conclusion that the rider isn't doing enough endurance miles or LT threshold miles or what?

Where did you hear about that ratio? And for whom does it apply?

If my Wmax is 600W and my LT is 420W [whose power levels does this remind you of?] - I'm considered an athlete without enough miles [0.7]? I might be considered an athlete who hasn't raised their LT to its highest possible level, but I'm sure most people need to log in a TON of miles to get to a LT of 420W & Wmax of 600W.

According to both RST and Coggan power levels... an athlete has a "standard" power curve if their LT/WMax OR FTP/pVO2Max OR 80%MAP/MAP ~ 0.8

I'm sure the pros have ratios all over the place - it depends on what they are training for. I'm sure Wiggins has a "low" ratio because all he cares about is his 5min power.

This subject sounds familiar to me, but I'm drawing a blank. Wmax would be your max power during the MAP, and what you're calling LT would be the 1m MMP (mean maximal power) during the test?

My last test came up at MAP/Wmax=0.89. Is 0.76 a known ratio for some training condition?


Where did you hear about that ratio? And for whom does it apply?

If my Wmax is 600W and my LT is 420W [whose power levels does this remind you of?] - I'm considered an athlete without enough miles [0.7]? I might be considered an athlete who hasn't raised their LT to its highest possible level, but I'm sure most people need to log in a TON of miles to get to a LT of 420W & Wmax of 600W.

According to both RST and Coggan power levels... an athlete has a "standard" power curve if their LT/WMax OR FTP/pVO2Max OR 80%MAP/MAP ~ 0.8

I'm sure the pros have ratios all over the place - it depends on what they are training for. I'm sure Wiggins has a "low" ratio because all he cares about is his 5min power.


I was referring to Nomad's reference to the ratio between FTP and MAP - I guess my phrasing was off.

So if I'm understanding Nomad's comment correctly, FTP is generally about .76 of the top 1 minute average power from the MAP test. My question was what would one do of your FTP was significantly below .76 of the max 1 min power from your MAP test.

Thanks for all the help guys. Here is how the test went. I got tt fitted and tried out the new gear. This is a little bit bigger adjustment than I anticipated but ... Oh well. I did a 1 hour ride and you can see the test highlighted in blue.

The route I chose wasn't ideal but it was the best I could find in my limited time. It was an industrial park loop and led out onto a highway for a leg. It had quite a few tight turns and was rough in spots. It also had a slight hill.


http://www.pbase.com/image/102944443/original.jpg


Here is a blow up of the 20 minute test. As you can see, in the middle I dropped my computer as I had to hold it in my hand. I had it taped to my bars but couldn't see it and the tape got wet from my aero bottle and I couldn't retape it so I had to hold it in my hand. I hit a big bump and zip... it went flying. Luckily it's hardly hurt.

http://www.pbase.com/image/102944444/original.jpg

Here are the details of the segment.

Data Value Unit
Duration 0:20:15
Sampling Rate 1 s
Cycling Efficiency 26.5 %

Number of Heart Beats 3121 beats
Recovery -45 beats
Minimum Heart Rate 114 bpm
Average Heart Rate 154 bpm
Maximum Heart Rate 166 bpm
Standard Deviation 7.8 bpm

Minimum Speed 2.6 mph
Average Speed 22.7 mph
Maximum Speed 27.8 mph
Distance 7.7 miles
Odometer 1470 miles

Minimum Cadence 32 rpm
Average Cadence 89 rpm
Maximum Cadence 104 rpm
Coasting Time 0:01:12 (5.9 %)
Coasting Distance 0.4 miles (5.0 %)

Minimum Altitude 758 ft
Average Altitude 778 ft
Maximum Altitude 804 ft
Ascent 102 ft
Descent 95 ft
VAM 302 ft/h

Minimum Power 9 Watts
Average Power 295 Watts
Average Power (0 W incl.) 275 Watts
Maximum Power 614 Watts
Pedaling Index Average 25 %
Pedaling Index Maximum 42 %
Left Right Balance Average L52 - 48R Left - Right
Left Right Balance Maximum L91 - 9R Left - Right



My avg hr was 86% and that's easy for me to maintain. Since I was thinking to go at 275 watts (92% of this 300 watt test), should I go a little harder on Saturday, or stay at the 275 for the first 20 minutes and bump it up as I feel good. I'd really like to break an hour if at all possible. Any feedback is appreciated.

Yeah, 275W would be the upper end of where you should start out. If you start there, be honest with yourself at around 7 minutes and decide if you feel 100% confident that you can hold it. Then you can bump at 20m and and 40m, maybe 5W each.

If you overcook it a little bit, it's not the end of the world. Just try to recognize that you're in trouble, and correct it.

You might want to install TrainingPeaks WKO+ or post your .csv somewhere and let one of us pull out a Normalized Power for you. Your NP is probably around 280W, which would be the value you should use for your 20m power estimate (given the turns and the computer drop). That would set your target at just under 260W to start out...

Water ... thanks for the help you mutant horse (translation ... I would love to have your power).

I have WKO. Where can I post it? It shows the peak 20 minute as 287 watts normalized power (good guess). Since I am positive 86% is not real hard work for me (92%+ is where I go anaerobic), what do you think I should target? If I were to do the test again, I would probably go for 320 watts. I think I can do that for 20 minutes.

Well, we'll see what the FTP experts think, but I do think 275 might be a touch high for starting. It's better to be a bit conservative than to over do it. It takes a lot more power to go a little faster, so the cost of overcooking is high, and has little benefit.

If I were you, I'd think about 270 to get a rhythm going. It depends on a lot of things. My AWC really contributes heavily to my 20m power, so my FTP is quite a bit lower compared to other riders who are more straight-up time-trialists. So I may be recommending lower wattages than necessary.

You're looking for a magical short cut to tell you this:

These are the methods of telling you FTP:



1) from inspection of a ride file.
2) from power distribution profile from multiple rides.
3) from blood lactate measurements (better or worse, depending on how it is done).
4) based on normalized power from a hard ~1 h race.
5) using critical power testing and analysis.
6) from the power that you can routinely generate during long intervals done in training.
7) from the average power during a ~1 h TT (the best predictor of performance is performance itself).

77-78% MAP based on Ric Stern's protocol was later added


The way you're going back and forth between values only serves to emphasize the need for trianing time with the power meter. I never set a zone based on 1 ride or 1 test. It's mixed with testing (rarely), interval strength (large player), RPE (even larger), and hard ride performance (usually serves to validate).

Using heart rate to power is not a great way to determine relationship between RPE and power - especially over 20 minutes. If I hold 93% FTP for 90 minutes, my heart rate doesn't flatten until 20-25 minutes into the effort often times.

Here's an example of 2x20's @ threshold and the heart rate relationship. At almost 18 minutes into the first interval, I'm still only @ 91% max heart rate. Almost the entire second interval was above that value.

http://www.cycleanywhere.com/blog/files/tom_thumb_2x20s0310.jpg (http://www.cycleanywhere.com/blog/files/tom_2x20s0310.jpg)

Nomad and Water, I hear you. I know you get hr creep as you get into longer rides.

So, around 270 watts for Saturday and then adjust slowly/gradually only if I'm sure I can hold it. Sounds good?

Nomad ... you did you do the embedded graphic?

Nomad ... you did you do the embedded graphic?

It's a link to a picture off my blog.

Nomad ... cool blog. Those are some big training numbers. I need to ride more!

Sorry to be a little thick ... could you show me the HTML code for the small embedded graphic but linking to a high res version? I just don't know the code.

Do you agree with starting at 270 watts?

Provided you have both images uploaded to a site already:

<url=http://www.yoursite.com/fullsize.jpg>
<img>
http://www.yoursite.com/thumbnail.jpg
</img>
</url>

Replace the < and > with [ and ]

265-270 seems close enough.

Thanks Nomad and Water, 270 it is and I promise not to adjust until 20 minutes in. ;)

Thanks for the code. Cool.

My two cents. I think 270 is a little steep to start out. I would go a bit more conservative and hit 260. An hour is long time, trust me. Try 260 first 20 mins, 275, second 20 and then if you feel great, the last 20 at 290. If I had to put a guess on it looking at this ride, I will say your average will be 265-270 for the TT. I hope you prove me wrong, but that is what my guess is.

Dr., where's the love baby? Now the only thing I can do is drop a (very small) hammer and see what the numbers are after Saturday. I think I'll be higher (he says hopefully), but I am confident at 270.

How many times have you ridden in this position, for an hour, at 270 watts?

Never. I rode for an hour yesterday for the first time in a tt position, but only averaged 222 watts including warm-up and cool down.

I was referring to Nomad's reference to the ratio between FTP and MAP - I guess my phrasing was off.

So if I'm understanding Nomad's comment correctly, FTP is generally about .76 of the top 1 minute average power from the MAP test. My question was what would one do of your FTP was significantly below .76 of the max 1 min power from your MAP test.

Ahh - sorry for the confusion. My FTP IS significantly below my 5 min power [.6] because my training objectives are to do just that: raise VO2max and powers @ VO2max.

For someone looking to raise FTP - that low ratio is actually a good sign - that there's a lot of ceiling in your training and you can just pile on the L3/SST/L4 miles until the cows come home. The converse [high ratio] may indicate you've been training @ the same FTP for sometime and maybe it's time to turn it up a notch, the VO2max knob, to open up new FTP possbilities.



These are the methods of telling you FTP:

The way you're going back and forth between values only serves to emphasize the need for trianing time with the power meter. I never set a zone based on 1 ride or 1 test. It's mixed with testing (rarely), interval strength (large player), RPE (even larger), and hard ride performance (usually serves to validate).

Using heart rate to power is not a great way to determine relationship between RPE and power - especially over 20 minutes. If I hold 93% FTP for 90 minutes, my heart rate doesn't flatten until 20-25 minutes into the effort often times.


Color, as shown from Nomad's post, the best way to figure out FTP is ride as hard as you can for an hour.
No amount of deduction is going to tell you the exact number from a bunch of non-TT files.

I think the consensus here is to start with an honest number and turn the volume accordingly. One of the biggest factors in poor TT performance is people starting too hard and then dying off at the end of the hour.

My two cents. I think 270 is a little steep to start out. I would go a bit more conservative and hit 260. An hour is long time, trust me. Try 260 first 20 mins, 275, second 20 and then if you feel great, the last 20 at 290. If I had to put a guess on it looking at this ride, I will say your average will be 265-270 for the TT. I hope you prove me wrong, but that is what my guess is.

I would concur with Dr Will on this one. I had a ton of 15-30 minute TT's in the early season and tried to use that to set my ftp for the 40k state. First 20k were no problem, but I grew progressively slower in the last half. I never got close to LTHR, but muscular fatigue ended up being the problem. Simply pedaling for an hour without pausing if you are not used to it is extremely difficult (and one of the big reasons I will be doing lots of steady state work this off season). I really hope you go out there and throw up a huge number, but I would suggest going at it through negative splitting. If you are feeling great you can always go harder on the way back or even 1/4 of the way into the TT. However, if you do go out too hard, it is very difficult to get those matches back.

OK guys, I'll back it off a little, how about 250-260 to start and I won't make any adjustments till at least 20 minutes in.

It looks like we'll have rain (80%) and 15 mph winds. Damn. Still going but a good time is out the window with that wind :(.

OK, here are the results:

First 20 minutes:
22.3 mph, 278 watts, 158 hr

Second 20 minutes:
23.5 mph, 268 watts, 161 hr

Last 20 minutes:
25.0 mph, 273 watts, 165 hr

So, 1:00:03. yep ... three freekin seconds!!!!!

According to WKO 278 watts np. So, it that my new threshold?

I really think I could have gone a little harder. It was a difficult race, extremely heavy rain, light wind, and difficulty seeing ... including seeing my power meter. I had to wipe the lens to get a reading so this really didn't help.

Any suggestions/feedback?

Fantastic job.

I'd wager ~270 for your FTP.
Now go and buy a Zipp Sub-9 and shave those seconds! ;) :D

Congrats! What was your average power? That would be your FTP.

Yep, you average power would be your FTP. Looks like 273 if I did my math correctly. Of course if you feel you could have gone a little harder it may be closer to your NP. Those are very intersting splits. It is very positive that you were able to finish that strong. I'm guessing by your power that it was mainly a headwind out and tail back? Also, you can really see the cardiac drift in your one hour vs 20 minute test. Congrats, that is a super time for your first 40k TT.

Thanks. 268 avg watts according to WKO. 273 avg. watts Polar, 268 avg. w zero watts included. Yes I didn't pedal in a couple spots: one where I threw my water bottle away as the velcro adhesive came loose in the downpour, another trying to adjust the watch on my wrist so I could see it better ... and finally pulling a gel out of my bibs. I know I probably didn't need it but I took one anyway.

Would love a Zip 9 but I guarantee I lost over 3 seconds on the stinking turn around with no brakes (super wet) and creeping around the cone. ;) I also had some concentration lapses in the second section. I could have gone a little harder. Now I know for next time.

Those three seconds are going to haunt me till next spring (no more 40k tt's in the area).:deadhorse: