Advocacy & Safety - Reap What Ye Have Sown

Oil tumbles as Wall Street slides
Crude futures approach $90 a barrel as economic woes spread fear in the market that demand for energy will not recover any time soon.

Dollars to donuts it's under $75 by the end of the year.

WTF does this have to do with cycling, let alone advocacy and safety?

Dollars to donuts it's under $75 by the end of the year.

Actually, I hope not.

Wild fluctuations in oil prices are screwing up the economy. We need a stable price. And that stable price needs to be high enough to make alternatives viable. Trouble is, the arseholes controlling the spigot know this. So they will continue to run the price up, cash in, then drop it before we change to something else.

Actually, I hope not.

Wild fluctuations in oil prices are screwing up the economy. We need a stable price. And that stable price needs to be high enough to make alternatives viable. Trouble is, the arseholes controlling the spigot know this. So they will continue to run the price up, cash in, then drop it before we change to something else.

OPEC has already announced limiting their output to "stabilize" the price of oil... no doubt "stabilize" means "keep the price high."

Actually, I hope not.

Wild fluctuations in oil prices are screwing up the economy. We need a stable price. And that stable price needs to be high enough to make alternatives viable. Trouble is, the arseholes controlling the spigot know this. So they will continue to run the price up, cash in, then drop it before we change to something else.

It seems that this has been the pattern for many years and will continue to do so in years hence. I've stopped playing this game a long time ago of being a completely helpless victim of wild price fluctuations in oil through the use of conservation efforts that I made even during the time of cheap oil.

Dollars to donuts it's under $75 by the end of the year.


To me, conservation has ALWAYS been a virtue, and you can still save ALOT of money by using your bike, shanks mare, carpooling, smaller/efficient cars, and going easy on the pedal when ya pull away from a light.

roughstuff

Not to hijack but ... shanks mare?

Not to hijack but ... shanks mare?

Got Google?

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/shanks-mare.html

When prices were going up so spectacularly fast a few months ago, the explanation was always "supply and demand." Now the prices are falling even faster (but the price of gas is falling somewhat slower, not surprisingly). Has demand ebbed so suddenly? Have supplies jumped (remember - "drill, drill, drill")? I bet that in a few months there will be an Enron-esque market manipulation scandal breaking out, with some company somewhere shown to have made billions from your pocket and mine.

I just don't get the title, who sowed the low gas prices that we're now reaping? (Or were reaping until Ike)

I just don't get the title, who sowed the low gas prices that we're now reaping? (Or were reaping until Ike)

And it's grammatically incorrect to boot ("ye" is for objects of verbs; "you" is for subjects). ;)

And it's grammatically incorrect to boot ("ye" is for objects of verbs; "you" is for subjects). ;)

Incorrect sir. From the Wikipedia:

"Ye (IPA: /jiː/ or, traditionally /ðiː/) was the second-person, plural, personal pronoun (Nominative) in Old English as "ge". In Middle English and Early Modern English it was also used to direct an equal or superior person. It is also common today in Ireland's Hiberno-English to distinguish from the singular "you"."

Thus, "ye" is the Old English word for "you all," or as we say around here, "y'all." It's used exactly correctly in the title.

Cheap petroleum is the enemy of conservation and renewable energy technology development.

Cheap petroleum is the enemy of conservation and renewable energy technology development.

100% agreement....however.com cheap petrol helps makes life affordable for lost of working families out there. It's way past time for alternative modes of transportation of that there's no doubt. And I never will understand why people don't embrace conservation of resources regardless of price.

WTF does this have to do with cycling, let alone advocacy and safety?It affects the cost of tubes and tires by a few cents and new bikes by a few dollars.:p

WTF does this have to do with cycling, let alone advocacy and safety?

:(

:(

Well? This isn't 'Petro Forums', is it?

Well? This isn't 'Petro Forums', is it?

No, it isnt, but 'advocates' of cycling cite high oil prices as a reason to ride.

The same trader/speculators who made mega dollars running the price up are making mega dollars as it declines. ~10% of the price decline is due to a stronger dollar.

No, it isnt, but 'advocates' of cycling cite high oil prices as a reason to ride.


well that's not really advocacy and safety is it? the people doing it aren't 'advocates', they are just joe six-pack and his wife cheap chardonnay, and they are pretty clueless about 'bike advocacy'

well that's not really advocacy and safety is it? the people doing it aren't 'advocates', they are just joe six-pack and his wife cheap chardonnay, and they are pretty clueless about 'bike advocacy'


and safety? NO. Are you trying to say high oil prices arent a reason to ride? Wouldnt you say 'advocates' of cycling prefer high oil prices?

and safety? NO. Are you trying to say high oil prices arent a reason to ride? Wouldnt you say 'advocates' of cycling prefer high oil prices?

I said the people riding because of high oil prices aren't 'cycling advocates', they are just cyclists. whether or not 'cycling advocates' 'prefer' high oil prices is irrelevant.

No, it isnt, but 'advocates' of cycling cite high oil prices as a reason to ride.



Wrong. "Advocates" claim other people ride because of high oil prices. Dizzy advocates post as if they think the number of cyclists rises and falls in direct correlation with the daily spot price of gasoline.

Wouldnt you say 'advocates' of cycling prefer high oil prices?

No.

I see......there's only one type of cycling advocate. Cool.

I see......there's only one type of cycling advocate. Cool.

That apparently is exactly what you see - bicycling advocates getting up on soap boxes proselytizing to the public of the benefits of paying higher prices for everything and maybe a jolly economic depression, in the hope that it might prompt some people to take up bicycling.

...and are surprised that other bicyclists don't want to march off the cliff with that DOA bicycling "advocacy" platform.

[Edit to correct spelling]

and safety? NO. Are you trying to say high oil prices arent a reason to ride? Wouldnt you say 'advocates' of cycling prefer high oil prices?

I advocate cycling, but I certainly do not prefer high oil prices. The notion that one issue is closely related with the other is off base in my view.

No matter how popular cycling becomes, there are destinations to which I cannot travel except by car, mostly because of their distance from my home. That distance does not vary with the price of oil. How much it costs me to drive my car to and fro does, however.

Caruso

Incorrect sir. From the Wikipedia:

"Ye (IPA: /jiː/ or, traditionally /ðiː/) was the second-person, plural, personal pronoun (Nominative) in Old English as "ge". In Middle English and Early Modern English it was also used to direct an equal or superior person. It is also common today in Ireland's Hiberno-English to distinguish from the singular "you"."

Thus, "ye" is the Old English word for "you all," or as we say around here, "y'all." It's used exactly correctly in the title.

I stand corrected. Whoops. That's what I get for concentrating on Slavic linguistics. :)

I advocate cycling, but I certainly do not prefer high oil prices. The notion that one issue is closely related with the other is off base in my view.

No matter how popular cycling becomes, there are destinations to which I cannot travel except by car, mostly because of their distance from my home. That distance does not vary with the price of oil. How much it costs me to drive my car to and fro does, however.

Caruso

As much as you desire to keep the price of oil down, bear in mind that it is a limited resource; and by nature of supply and demand, the price will go up as the resource diminishes. The best way to control the price therefore is to limit demand.

If you and all others only used oil for limited long distance trips, the demand would decrease and therefore so would the price... as long as the supply lasts.

Irrational consumption of a limited product tends to keep the price high.

You want oil for future long trips... Bike NOW.

I advocate cycling, but I certainly do not prefer high oil prices. The notion that one issue is closely related with the other is off base in my view.

No matter how popular cycling becomes, there are destinations to which I cannot travel except by car, mostly because of their distance from my home. That distance does not vary with the price of oil. How much it costs me to drive my car to and fro does, however.

Caruso

Another possibility to ponder for those "bicycling advocates" who cheer for higher fuel prices as a bicycling inducement is that the associated higher cost of living may actually force some people off their bikes because they have to give up the bicycling time in order to work additional hours or get to a second/third job to make ends meet. Probably will not significantly affect those "advocates" who are single guys, college students, and/or underacheiving economic dropouts who seem oblivious to the realities of earning a living and supporting a family on budget.

Another possibility to ponder for those "bicycling advocates" who cheer for higher fuel prices as a bicycling inducement is that the associated higher cost of living may actually force some people off their bikes because they have to give up the bicycling time in order to work additional hours or get to a second/third job to make ends meet. Probably will not significantly affect those "advocates" who are single guys, college students, and/or underacheiving economic dropouts who seem oblivious to the realities of earning a living and supporting a family on budget.

Yup, one can see this scenario daily in Europe where gas prices are still nearly twice as high as in the US. Those annoying month long vacations of the French are clearly an indication of the population working long hours to support their lifestyles.

Recently the French government has proposed longer work weeks and fewer holidays... in an effort to keep up with already overworked Americans who typically have the longest workweeks and shortest holidays of the industrialized nations.

:rolleyes:

Yup, one can see this scenario daily in Europe where gas prices are still nearly twice as high as in the US. Those annoying month long vacations of the French are clearly an indication of the population working long hours to support their lifestyles.

Recently the French government has proposed longer work weeks and fewer holidays... in an effort to keep up with already overworked Americans who typically have the longest workweeks and shortest holidays of the industrialized nations.

:rolleyes:

:)

As an economist i think I-like-to-bike has the relevant elasticity backwards. In any case: I like the fact that oil prices (and metals, meats, and agricultural softs) have been punctured. But prices are still high enough that conservation provides a good return on your money; and thats what it all about!

Hokey pokey!

Drill baby drill. ;)

roughstuff

..... Probably will not significantly affect those "advocates" who are single guys, college students, and/or underacheiving economic dropouts who seem oblivious to the realities of earning a living and [supporting a family on budget.]

Hee hee. I am all of the above. Single guy, college student off and on (both sides of the desk, as a professor and a undergrad/grad), underachiever and loving it (have never earned more than $35k in a year), and kind of a a dropout---love to live low on the hog, lipstick or not.

Leave out the family though. You'd be amazed how free you are without HCWK: House,car, wife, kids.

Yeccccch!


roughstuff

Hee hee. I am all of the above. Single guy, college student off and on (both sides of the desk, as a professor and a undergrad/grad), underachiever and loving it (have never earned more than $35k in a year), and kind of a a dropout---love to live low on the hog, lipstick or not.

Leave out the family though. You'd be amazed how free you are without HCWK: House,car, wife, kids.

Yeccccch!


Why am I not surprised about your status/living arrangements and freedom from concern/empathy for the situation of others who don't share your staus?

Why am I not surprised about your status/living arrangements and freedom from concern/empathy for the situation of others who don't share your staus?


I don't think I have shown lack of concern/empathy for those who don't share my status. More power to them if they can enjoy life that way, as many of my friends, family, and neighbors do every day. Its just not for me.

And yes, if they put **me** down for the lifestyle I lead, I am more than willing to dish it right back out.

roughstuff

Yup, one can see this scenario daily in Europe where gas prices are still nearly twice as high as in the US. Those annoying month long vacations of the French are clearly an indication of the population working long hours to support their lifestyles.

Recently the French government has proposed longer work weeks and fewer holidays... in an effort to keep up with already overworked Americans who typically have the longest workweeks and shortest holidays of the industrialized nations.


+1. Other countries figured this stuff out a while ago. But as long as we're still clinging to cherished notions of independence and self-reliance, we'll have to make do without month long vacations, universal healthcare, public transportation, childcare, affordable college, and all those other parts of society that require a more cohesive mindset than we're willing to entertain. I'd be more than willing to pay more for gas if it meant we'd spend it on making societal improvements. Unfortunately, too many in the country are wedded to competition instead of cooperation.

Why am I not surprised about your status/living arrangements and freedom from concern/empathy for the situation of others who don't share your staus?

I am just the opposite of roughstuff... with all the HCWK and with a large salary too... and frankly I think it is time America realized that we are a mature country that can no longer depend on "growth" as our key economic motivator. We no longer have the "unlimited resources" and growth potential of the 1800's. We need to shift to an economy that embraces services, design and development, and sustainable resources, with an immediate focus on renewable energy sources and reclamation and reduction of wastes.

In other words we have to stop living like the worlds' hogs and start living more like "the ant." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ant_and_the_Grasshopper)

I am just the opposite of roughstuff... with all the HCWK and with a large salary too... and frankly I think it is time America realized that we are a mature country that can no longer depend on "growth" as our key economic motivator. We no longer have the "unlimited resources" and growth potential of the 1800's. We need to shift to an economy that embraces services, design and development, and sustainable resources, with an immediate focus on renewable energy sources and reclamation and reduction of wastes.

In other words we have to stop living like the worlds' hogs and start living more like "the ant." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ant_and_the_Grasshopper)
+1

I don't see why this is so hard for many to understand. It's quite simple.

Sustainability is about producing at least a little more than you consume. You can mess with either side of that equation.

Corporations are interested in producing more than they consume (that's how they make money). However, out of short-sightedness, they have "encouraged" consumers to consume more than they produce, through effective marketing and a steady annual inflation rate that rewards spending vs. saving. (or, as some of the more reckless companies have shown, they forgot about this produce/consume equation, and went in for market inflated price speculation... and tried to siphon a little money off the top without adding much value - in other words, they played in a Ponzi scheme)

We've had the luxury of excess wealth due to world market domination since WWII, but we've been steadily outspending our production, and now our gas tank is hitting empty.

It's not about "dependence on foreign oil" or lots of Chinese people competing for resources (because the new competition in town happens to be producing more than they consume after all). It's about simply producing more than you consume.

And for a lot of us, bicycling helps bring down the consumption levels.

You'd be amazed how free you are without HCWK: House,car, wife, kids.

Responsibility is a *****, isn't it.

To an extent, I feel sorry for you. Then again, I couldn't give a **** what makes you tick.

Is more drilling a short term plan, (new oil won't be on line for 10 or so years) or a long term plan? (let's reduce the supply even quicker, so the point where demand exceeds supply is reached even sooner and we're even less prepared)

Either way, increasing production doesn't seem to be a good answer to the bigger problems we will eventually face.

....We need to shift to an economy that embraces services, design and development, and sustainable resources, with an immediate focus on renewable energy sources and reclamation and reduction of wastes....

"[/URL]


We already have a service economy...banking, legal, educational, consulting, etc to a large extent. Of course as this weeks' market cassandras show, such an economy can rock'n'roll as much as an resource dependent one.

We have already made substantial inroads into improving energy efficiency. Our bias is always to look at 'miles per gallon' as the penultimate guide, but that is a poor guide. Don't forget we now have much more energy efficient appliances, heating, insulation, industrial use of energy, etc. And we have only BEGUN to get serious about these technologies. So the demand side is not as bad as it looks.

And on the supply side---despite my cute comments about 'drill, baby drill,'---alot of new sources are coming online in future years as alternative technologies such as biomass, wind, and solar get more and more competitive.

Very few countries---most of them third world basket cases---depend on the sale of natural resources as their primary source of wealth. Russia....spread across 13 time zones, with a GDP roughly equal to that of denmark, is an example. Alot of good their oil wealth did THEM! Their stock market is down 17% in two days, and is closed for the duration....;)

roughstuff

Is more drilling a short term plan, (new oil won't be on line for 10 or so years) or a long term plan? (let's reduce the supply even quicker, so the point where demand exceeds supply is reached even sooner and we're even less prepared)

Either way, increasing production doesn't seem to be a good answer to the bigger problems we will eventually face.


I think its both. Once Bush pushed for opening up drilling early this summer, Oil prices collapsed. Like they said at the Republican convention...its a good start. No one has ever explained to me why the cubans, the chinese, the venezuelans, the brazilians and everyone else is able to drill off our coasts, but somehow its immoral for us to do so.

roughstuff

I think its both. Once Bush pushed for opening up drilling early this summer, Oil prices collapsed. Like they said at the Republican convention...its a good start. No one has ever explained to me why the cubans, the chinese, the venezuelans, the brazilians and everyone else is able to drill off our coasts, but somehow its immoral for us to do so.

roughstuff

So the mere mention of the possibility of drilling, which if begun, would bring new oil to the market 10-20 years from now, was enough to bring the price of oil down significantly? :lol:

(the real answer is that investors believe that economy woes will further decrease demand from consumers, which was already decreasing from $4 a gallon gas).

And, I'm sorry, but oil companies already have access to millions of acres of coastal land. "Drill baby drill" is a red herring.

*in case you didn't notice, the house just passed a bill that expands areas where offshore drilling can happen. Republicans were the ones voting against it, including 3 unsuccessful attempts to adjourn congress to avoid a vote. Likely reasons for voting against it:

-It ends $18 billion in oil company tax breaks
-It requires that that revenue be put towards renewable energy

Watch Bush veto it.

I see roughstuff is plying his neoclown politics in A&S now, since he couldn't mind his manners in P&R and got banned.

:lol:

neoclassical economics are dead.

move this thread to P&R, it has no business here and the sharks are hungry

I advocate cycling, but I certainly do not prefer high oil prices. The notion that one issue is closely related with the other is off base in my view.

No matter how popular cycling becomes, there are destinations to which I cannot travel except by car, mostly because of their distance from my home. That distance does not vary with the price of oil. How much it costs me to drive my car to and fro does, however.

Caruso

Indeed the rising cost of oil will affect everybody in profound ways, even those who never drive. Some of this will be painful. Some of it in fact could be horrible. Overall, however, expensive oil will be a positive thing for the US. In my opinion. Jury's still out.

So the mere mention of the possibility of drilling, which if begun, would bring new oil to the market 10-20 years from now, was enough to bring the price of oil down significantly? :lol:

......
*in case you didn't notice, the house just passed a bill that expands areas where offshore drilling can happen. Republicans were the ones voting against it, including 3 unsuccessful attempts to adjourn congress to avoid a vote.




OOps....I really didn't mean to suggest the mere mention was enough. I just meant to imply it removed alot of the fluff and risk premium. I am as pleased with the collapse in oil prices as anyone.

Most of the oil offshore is within 50 miles of the coast, so expanding those areas will have almost no impact. And the states can still veto the decision to drill---which, considering the bills deny them a share of the revenues, means its a 'heads you win tails we lose' kind of thing.


roughstuff

...I am as pleased with the collapse in oil prices as anyone.

...

Interesting that oil is considered to have collapsed at 95$. Last year at this time if I had told people that oil would ever hit 95$ many of them would have said no possible way is that going to happen.

Interesting that oil is considered to have collapsed at 95$. Last year at this time if I had told people that oil would ever hit 95$ many of them would have said no possible way is that going to happen.


True. I never grudge forecasters their fun and frolic, though. Its a tough profession to be in. When oil prices settled back for a while last year in the mid 60s, alot of analysts thought that 'was the top.'

Of course, alot of people forecasted $200 a barrel oil by 1990.

But oil and gas prices are still at levels that make conserving oil/gas by cycling/walking/carpooling/better mpg vehicles a nice pad in the budget. I hope that continues.

roughstuff

and safety? NO. Are you trying to say high oil prices arent a reason to ride? Wouldnt you say 'advocates' of cycling prefer high oil prices?

No. Some crazies may advocate for higher energy prices because they don't like where that energy comes from or want to forcefully promote their own agenda, but, to me, the cost of energy has zilch to do with cycling...it only impacts the cost of cycling.

I see roughstuff is plying his neoclown politics in A&S now, since he couldn't mind his manners in P&R and got banned.

:lol:

You mean this thread isn't an extension of P&R?:eek:

It sure ain't about bicycling, bicycling advocacy or safety except to those who think a viable solution to energy problems is for everyone to go for a month long vacation to the south of France or go for a daily bicycle ride.