Fifty Plus (50+) - Biking and the Economy

Hi guys,
Just in case someone wonders why some of us are absent from this forum. It is not that we no longer love you but my computers are trying to keep up with the historic changes on Wall Street.
This is unprecedented.
I bike my 25 to 50 miles per day just to get rid of stress.
BTW, I am personally involved with AIG and BoA and Merrill Lynch. My wife goes to church while I watch the computers and have meetings with the guys from these companies.
More later as the dust is settling.:(:eek::cry::rolleyes::notamused:

Good to see you again, Iron Will! Hope things turn out well for you in the economy. It's an E-ticket ride right now.

A couple of years ago I lost faith in the current administration and dumped all of my stocks and mutual funds. Every last share of them. Went ultra conservative and put everything into CDs. Got 5% on the CDs.

Wasn't sure at all that it was the right thing to do. Just decided to get out of the risk business for a while. All part of my reduce the stress in my life effort.

Now I'm thinking of getting back in, while prices are low.

I feel your pain. The California real estate market is, well, challenging, to say the least. I rode 120 miles last week to keep me sane.

Hey, share a hot tip when you get one, 'k? ;)

Good luck, and hang in there.

Now I'm thinking of getting back in, while prices are low.

i don't like shifting lots of money around, but i have to agree this is a good time to jump back in... (actually, slow-n-steady over the years is better - just think: the Dow was at 5,000 about 12 years ago, IIRC)

that said, bicycling has saved me money since the cost of gas has doubled in the last four years; i cut my driving more than 40 percent and now ride to market once a week by bike - and that gas money has been re-allocated to investing... a win-win!

I almost, but not quite, feel guilty about being in the oil and gas business.

We quit individual stocks some years back, subscribing to the French and Fama theories on portfolio management. We keep a good portion of our stock holdings in broad (S&P, Wilshire, etc.) index funds and occasionally a segment index fund. Still, our 401's have been bumped down with everyone else.

I remain heavily invested in investment-grade, non-speculative individual stocks, which in general have held up better than the few mutual funds I have. I am watching BAC carefully for an opportunity to increase my modest long-term position, and I remain bullish on BHI and APA.

Was it Warren Buffet who said most people sell when its low and buy when its high?? If this is the case, shouldn't we be in the buying mode right now?

I think it would be wise to wait a while longer to jump back in. I look for it to get much worse before it gets better. IMO.........My 401K has lost thousands in the last few month thanks to the Bush bunch.

This advice may be worth what you paid for it, but you guys may be interested: I work in public relations for a business school. Yesterday, I interviewed a very successful investor. His view is that there's a lot more downside than upside at the moment, and may be for some time to come. Speaking for myself, when Bear Sterns went down the drain in March, I decided enough is enough, I'm bailing out.

[QUOTE=John E;7487260]I remain heavily invested in investment-grade, non-speculative individual stocks, QUOTE]

IMHO there is no such thing as a non-speculative individual stock.

All stocks are speculative, because some idiot may, and eventually does, become CEO.

My 401K has lost thousands in the last few month thanks to the Bush bunch.

<sigh>... why do folks place so much emphasis on the Executive Branch of the Federal government? the root cause here is (at least for U.S.-based business entities) the fault of the Legislative Branch, the selling of derivatives based on derivatives of bundled mortgage and consumer debt by commercial banks and other financial institutions, and human nature.. these over-valued instruments collapsed due to human greed and lack of sound business principles...

it would suck to be at retirement age right now (even though if one were at retirement age one should be in more conservative, liquid funds) ... fortunately my horizon is 15 years out, so i'm not worried one whit...

take a look at Google's 20-year timeline on the Dow for a little perspective and rest easy about your 401(k):

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&cid=983582

(grab the slider at the bottom of the chart)... 20 years ago the Dow was at 2071!

. . . it would suck to be at retirement age right now (even though if one were at retirement age one should be in more conservative, liquid funds) ...

Maybe so if one is in a great rush to get everything in cash. Otherwise, there's no great rush to cash out. At least current conditions make it a bit less temping to make spending decisions based on over-optimistic yield projections.

...........sigh>... why do folks place so much emphasis on the Executive Branch of the Federal government? the root cause here is (at least for U.S.-based business entities) the fault of the Legislative Branch,.........

Considering the theory of our govenment, this statement is correct. The current executive branch has expanded it's bounds beyond any previous president and has pushed it's agenda thru and veto'd laws not pretaining to it's agenda. The last 7 years has produced an almost monarchy and is very much the reason we are in the current condition.

IMHO there is no such thing as a non-speculative individual stock.

All stocks are speculative, because some crook may, and eventually does, become CEO.

There. Fixed it for you.

After careful consideration, I'm going to invest in hard goods. Starting with those Sidi shoes.

I invested today in 5 gal of paint which will be used tomorrow on my day off...if the paint gun works.
My other investments are bonds and mutual funds.

After careful consideration, I'm going to invest in hard goods. Starting with those Sidi shoes.

Would you please hurry up with that!

I will be buying and wearing them vicariously through you and I'm tired of waiting.

Thanks for above replies.
I am retired and therefore I must be careful. I paid quite a bit for an investment model we followed about one year ago. It has prevented major loss so far.
Above 50% of funds are invested in medium term Municipal Bond Fund of a leading M. Bond Manager.
Balanced Retirement Funds for longer term growth we hope.
Annuity with fixed guaranty of return for life but invested in aggressive growth funds.
A modest amount in money market fund.
Three bicycles for health maintenance I put this in for the moderators.;)

BTW, I feel much better today. The AIG and ML deal is the best outcome I could hope for.

I feel your pain. The California real estate market is, well, challenging, to say the least. I rode 120 miles last week to keep me sane.

Hey, share a hot tip when you get one, 'k? ;)

Good luck, and hang in there.

Hot tip of the day: Real estate is not looking good for a few more years.
Stocks are not for the faint of heart for now.
Beware: If America gets a cold, others get pneumonia.

<sigh>... why do folks place so much emphasis on the Executive Branch of the Federal government? the root cause here is (at least for U.S.-based business entities) the fault of the Legislative Branch, the selling of derivatives based on derivatives of bundled mortgage and consumer debt by commercial banks and other financial institutions, and human nature.. these over-valued instruments collapsed due to human greed and lack of sound business principles...

it would suck to be at retirement age right now (even though if one were at retirement age one should be in more conservative, liquid funds) ... fortunately my horizon is 15 years out, so i'm not worried one whit...

take a look at Google's 20-year timeline on the Dow for a little perspective and rest easy about your 401(k):

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&cid=983582

(grab the slider at the bottom of the chart)... 20 years ago the Dow was at 2071!

I am not interested in knocking Bush. Part of the current mess was caused by government relaxing interest ceilings in place (That was Clinton). Next, the government lowered interest rate and encouraged borrowing short and lending long (That was Bush). At a minimum it can be said that the government did not keep an eye on cause and effect and let the sharks run wild.

The current executive branch has expanded it's bounds beyond any previous president and has pushed it's agenda thru and veto'd laws not pretaining to it's agenda. The last 7 years has produced an almost monarchy and is very much the reason we are in the current condition.

You can't fairly blame one branch. They all are messed up and only get more messed up regardless of which party's puppet is the current president.

1. Did you see the chief justice comment this week? Some is horribly wrong with legal system that so many of best minds are working in legal profession which adds no value to the economy.

2. Congress voted on just barely over 200 bills this last year and over 100 were pat on the back type of bills.

3. Congress is not legislating so Court is making up laws and congress lacks guts to revise laws to adjust court rulings.

4. Congress and Exec branch ignore the big issues of the day

5. All of them are only interested in what their key financial supporters are promoting.


Fixes, I don't know. Some things that have been suggested that make some sense to me are:

1. Revise CEO and top 10% of companies compensated employees so bonuses have to based on 5 year performance, and not on year by year performance.

2. Limit government spending to a fixed percentage of GNP.

3. Revise the health insurance companies ability to control both ends of service.
Change so no one can be excluded, no preexisting conditions after 1 year, and no individual/small business health plans. Any plan can use volume of scale and has to be offered to anyone living in the state. Forbid any age or sex differences in premiums. Yes, companies can still make money. They just have to make some services more expensive. Maybe have the govt require a minimum level of benefits. Require all employees, full or part time to be covered. Part timers can pay pro-rata.

4. Fix the special interest mess. Restrict the tax code to 25 letter size, single sided pages, with font of at least 10pt.

5. Fix the congress mess. It's over 90% lawyers. Restrict lawyers to 30% of membership.

6. Deal with the environmental mess most everyone is ignoring. Cancer is increasing because of a polluted food system. We need some new method to remove the incentive to do things like add plastic to milk.

7. Fix the education mess. Make High Schools and Colleges/Universities compete just as any business would for customers.

8. Require 2 years of service by everyone between ages of 20 and 30. I don't care if its military service, peace corps, CCC, or whatever. We need to say as a nation, we are a nation and not a sandpile of selfish snobs.

9. Fix the transportation infrastructure mess. Last bandage was when Ike was president. We've tripled population and added 10% to our roads without increasing mass transit, heck don't even have light transit. Just a few smelly buses here and there.

10. Fix the border security problems. There are too many criminals that are given free rides who are in a protected class.


Ok, that's 10. Enough to get started? The point is simple, as a wiser man said,

I have met the enemy, and he is us.

After careful consideration, I'm going to invest in hard goods. Starting with those Sidi shoes.

Your ROI should be better than some of those steenking stocks.

You've provided much food for thought. I have no answers, only observations.

I've stuck my big toe into politics by having been elected to the Board of Directors of my local Assoc. of Realtors. I also volunteer on the local Board PAC. I've gone to Sacramento 3 years now for our Legislative Days, meeting our elected officials and lobbying for their votes on bills that affect us and our cities. It's a very eye-opening experience. I have given thought to running for city council and am holding out -- the timing doesn't feel right. And, being a Realtor, I have no money with which to run a campaign, with the current market. This is a challenging time. >insert irony icon here<

Yet as one who leads, I feel compelled to pull papers to run for city council. Currently there are 3 positions available and 29 applicants. I'm not feeling that it's my time, so I'm holding back. Besides, cgallagh says if I volunteer for one more "thing" he's going to yell at me. Shades of the Road Forum! :eek:

My time will come. I encourage those of you who feel powerless to step up and take a position. You have more power than you think -- and you can set an example for all the other cyclists who are resisting involvement. You have more impact than you know.



You can't fairly blame one branch. They all are messed up and only get more messed up regardless of which party's puppet is the current president.

1. Did you see the chief justice comment this week? Some is horribly wrong with legal system that so many of best minds are working in legal profession which adds no value to the economy.

2. Congress voted on just barely over 200 bills this last year and over 100 were pat on the back type of bills.

3. Congress is not legislating so Court is making up laws and congress lacks guts to revise laws to adjust court rulings.

4. Congress and Exec branch ignore the big issues of the day

5. All of them are only interested in what their key financial supporters are promoting.


Fixes, I don't know. Some things that have been suggested that make some sense to me are:

1. Revise CEO and top 10% of companies compensated employees so bonuses have to based on 5 year performance, and not on year by year performance.

2. Limit government spending to a fixed percentage of GNP.

3. Revise the health insurance companies ability to control both ends of service.
Change so no one can be excluded, no preexisting conditions after 1 year, and no individual/small business health plans. Any plan can use volume of scale and has to be offered to anyone living in the state. Forbid any age or sex differences in premiums. Yes, companies can still make money. They just have to make some services more expensive. Maybe have the govt require a minimum level of benefits. Require all employees, full or part time to be covered. Part timers can pay pro-rata.

4. Fix the special interest mess. Restrict the tax code to 25 letter size, single sided pages, with font of at least 10pt.

5. Fix the congress mess. It's over 90% lawyers. Restrict lawyers to 30% of membership.

6. Deal with the environmental mess most everyone is ignoring. Cancer is increasing because of a polluted food system. We need some new method to remove the incentive to do things like add plastic to milk.

7. Fix the education mess. Make High Schools and Colleges/Universities compete just as any business would for customers.

8. Require 2 years of service by everyone between ages of 20 and 30. I don't care if its military service, peace corps, CCC, or whatever. We need to say as a nation, we are a nation and not a sandpile of selfish snobs.

9. Fix the transportation infrastructure mess. Last bandage was when Ike was president. We've tripled population and added 10% to our roads without increasing mass transit, heck don't even have light transit. Just a few smelly buses here and there.

10. Fix the border security problems. There are too many criminals that are given free rides who are in a protected class.


Ok, that's 10. Enough to get started? The point is simple, as a wiser man said,

I have met the enemy, and he is us.

The point is simple, as a wiser man said,

I have met the enemy, and he is us.

Pogo was a wiser 'possum. :p

it would suck to be at retirement age right now (even though if one were at retirement age one should be in more conservative, liquid funds) ... fortunately my horizon is 15 years out, so i'm not worried one whit...



I'll be retiring in 18 days and I'm looking forward to it. My investments currently aren't in the stock market and haven't been for a few months.

Even when my retirement was 15 years out I worried about it:)

I have met the enemy, and he is us.

Pogo never had a finger in this mess! LOL

Good list, by the way!

Re: is it time to buy stocks yet? Have we reached the bottom?

In 1987, stocks crashed in October. I remember it well as I was "retired" (I had quit my job to attend business school), and half of my money to get me through two years of joblessness (and pay tuition) was in my prior employer's stock plan (ouch!); the other half was in cash (which saved me). The market bounced along for several weeks, and more and more brokerage firms started firing people and closing offices as trading dried up.

Then, in December 1987, Business Week or Time or someone published a cover story pronouncing that the stock market was dead forever. The story predicted that the market was dead, and that individual investors would *never* return to the stock market. The story predicted that investors had lost confidence in the market forever, and there would never be another stock market rise like the 80's.

*That* was the strongest buy signal ever, and that day I moved my savings out of cash and into stock (index funds...)

Look for Time, Newsweek, Fortune or Business Week to publish a similar cover story this time around...that's the day you buy.

My 2 cents (which is all I have left after yesterday's market....)

Look for Time, Newsweek, Fortune or Business Week to publish a similar cover story this time around...that's the day you buy.


In that case, here's a strong signal to buy from today's front page of the Wall Street Journal. I'm taking it as a sign to double down my bet on those Sidis.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122169431617549947.html

Retirement does present a challenge. Funds lost cannot be replaced with new savings.

As I was working, an investment mistake was called Learning or The School of hard Knox.
Return on investment after retirement is so marginal that lost funds are gone for good.

Moderator, please read this:
I am much more careful purchasing a bike after retirement from these marginal returns on investment.
You can forget living on Social Security. It covers about 50% of our modest lifestyle.

In that case, here's a strong signal to buy from today's front page of the Wall Street Journal. I'm taking it as a sign to double down my bet on those Sidis.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122169431617549947.html

Unfortunately, the WSJ doesn't help as an indicator of when to buy or sell. That's because every day you'll be able to find articles supporting both directions. Even today, there are articles saying it's the worst crisis since the 30's...and articles saying it's already time to start buying again. Too much objectivity.

You need to wait until one of the leading national magazines throws away all hope....a cover story with a clear, unambiguous, final, doomsday-type cover saying the market will never, ever recover. (In fact, as I recall, the Business Week article had a tombstone on the cover).

BTW, Business Week also had a now-infamous cover in 1979 called "The Death of Equities," which preceded the greatest bull-market run in history (the 80's)....

Re: is it time to buy stocks yet? Have we reached the bottom?


My take is no.
1. it's an election year and historically election years have problems because no one wants to bet on who is going to be elected.
2. october is coming up and it is one of the hardest months in the year.

I'ld suggest holding until the election is over, but what do I know?

My Modest Emergency funds in shares disappeared today. Its hitting us over here as well.

Re: is it time to buy stocks yet?

that is a good question, and one perhaps answered by:

Dollar cost averaging (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging)

slow and steady as she goes! (400+ point gain on the Dow today!)

in a prep for tomorrow's Talk Like a Pirate Day (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Talk_Like_a_Pirate_Day):

The sailor on the burning deck,
His feet were full of blisters.
Tore his pants on a rusty nail,
And now he wears his sister's!

[arrrr!]

In that case, here's a strong signal to buy from today's front page of the Wall Street Journal. I'm taking it as a sign to double down my bet on those Sidis.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122169431617549947.html

Sidis or those "suck till they fit Shimanos" ?????? Which is more conservative? Which has more potential upside? What are the 52 week averages?

I just can't decide. I need to know the beta and alpha number for each relative to the standard deviation and correlation to the mean and mode of those shoes worn by all of last years riders on the TDF, and also the data relative to the winners of the last 20 TDF's, because no one want to run with the pack? Right?

And what about the Bollinger bands of each? Do they have ratchets?

Sidis or those "suck till they fit Shimanos" ?????? Which is more conservative? Which has more potential upside? What are the 52 week averages?

I just can't decide. I need to know the beta and alpha number for each relative to the standard deviation and correlation to the mean and mode of those shoes worn by all of last years riders on the TDF, and also the data relative to the winners of the last 20 TDF's, because no one want to run with the pack? Right?

And what about the Bollinger bands of each? Do they have ratchets?

I have two pairs SIDI. Biking is my passion and only the best will do for me. I will also wear them out, no doubt.
OTOH my wife was not sure what she wants. So we got her Shimano. She did not like them she said. Back to gym shoes and straps. A year later she tries again. Reports burning soles. I think it is in her head but finaly agree to look at the issue. Shimano has very thin inner sole over a cavity right where the force of the foot goes. SIDI is noticeably better protected.
In any case, I use the best liners money can buy in my SIDI and I never had or have problems.
My wife has now double liners and is complaining less.
Just looking at it as an engineer: You do get what you pay for.

that is a good question, and one perhaps answered by:

Dollar cost averaging (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging)

slow and steady as she goes! (400+ point gain on the Dow today!)

in a prep for tomorrow's Talk Like a Pirate Day (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Talk_Like_a_Pirate_Day):

The sailor on the burning deck,
His feet were full of blisters.
Tore his pants on a rusty nail,
And now he wears his sister's!

[arrrr!]

Timing the market is not a strategy, it is gambling. Dollar cost averaging sounds good unless you look at some history. If you had bought Automotive (USA) stock in 1960's and dollar averaged, you would be in a hole. Not much better with bank stocks. DJA was 1,000 in 1960's and is 11,000 now. Gold did much better and so did booze, wine, housing and many commodities.
------------------------------------------
I was not aware of the following until recently: You can get an Annuity contract, guaranteed return for life at 6% growth and invested in aggressive growth stocks. You will benefit if that gamble pays out and are protected by the 6% if not. The downside? You have to forget that money until you retire.

As someone who is involved in a very small corner in a very intimate way of the capital markets business, and has been for over 30 years, let me offer MHO:
1. What we are currently witnessing has no precedent in our lifetimes, your parents or grandparents were around in the 30's.
2. While I do not think that stuffing all the money under the matress is a prudent solution, I'd urge EXTREME care in any and all investment decisions under the current climate. There are many cross currents about in ALL markets, and unless one is very informed, assume that things you cannot see could have meaningful effects on investments you are making now.
3. The world IS NOT coming to an end, but even subsequent to current solutions being offered by the Treasury, the Fed, and Congress, there will be more stormy seas. We may only be in the eye of the hurricane.

Every time I play in the markets I got my hat handed to me, good or bad times.
IMHO we are going through a sea state change - when we get through it the world economy will work differently than it did before. There are some basics though - we only have so much usable realestate, we are running out of every mineral on earth (oil, gas as well as metals) and the population is growing and therefore the demands are increasing. The economy will come back, but what is hot and what is not will be very different. One other observation - it's been almost 70 years without a major world conflict.

I am very concerned about what our kids will face.

<sigh>... why do folks place so much emphasis on the Executive Branch of the Federal government? the root cause here is (at least for U.S.-based business entities) the fault of the Legislative Branch, the selling of derivatives based on derivatives of bundled mortgage and consumer debt by commercial banks and other financial institutions, and human nature.. these over-valued instruments collapsed due to human greed and lack of sound business principles...

it would suck to be at retirement age right now (even though if one were at retirement age one should be in more conservative, liquid funds) ... fortunately my horizon is 15 years out, so i'm not worried one whit...

take a look at Google's 20-year timeline on the Dow for a little perspective and rest easy about your 401(k):

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&cid=983582

(grab the slider at the bottom of the chart)... 20 years ago the Dow was at 2071!

Very well put. Who was in charge when the internet bubble crashed? Oh, yea that was the greatest economy in the histroy of man, I forgot.

Somehow I thought this would be about the bicycle industry based on the title.

Just a different angle to these discussions.
I was born, raised and educated in Germany. As such I have a more that typical interest in history, especially European history.
It is fashionable to think that the current crisis is extraordinary. Reading European history will correct that attitude very quickly. Use Wikipedia and just read for one our. You will think we are in paradise right now.