Road Bike Racing - how have top time-trial speeds changed over the years?

After reading about today's world championships ITT, I wondered about the average speed of the winner of the worlds ITT over the years.

Clearly, winning times may vary. What I'm interested in, is there much of a trend over time? Main variables to change over time are, in no particular order
+ the evolution of aerodynamic equipment and positions
- regulations that placed limits on aero equipment and positions that were previously legal
+ improved training regimins
+ the spread of doping (or increases in doping effectiveness) within the peloton
- crackdown on doping within the peloton

Bert Grabsch won today with an average speed of 50.40 kph.
Fabian Cancellara won the Olympic time trial last month with an average speed of 45.63 kph, on a course that was more difficult with a major climb.
Other recent times:
* Cancellara 2007 worlds: 48.4 kph
* Cancellara 2006 worlds: 50.66 kph

Another barometer is the speed of stage winners of ITT stages in the grand tours, although these are often shorter than the world championships ITT so it's more important to specify distance of the time trial stage. Plus, there is the added factor of being in the midst of a grand tour as opposed to being able to peak training for the ITT at worlds. Here are some recent results:
* Leipheimer 2008 Vuelta: stage 5 - 50.0 kph (42.5 km) - I ommitted the stage 20 b/c it was an uphill ITT
* Schumacher 2008 TDF: stage 4 - 49.5 kph (29.5 km) stage 20 - 49.8 kph (53km)

It is difficult to compare time trials speeds because the courses vary, the conditions on a given course varies, and the wind and weather varies. LeMond's ride into Paris stood out for many years as a "fast" time trial, but most reports indicate that a brisk wind was at his back for most of the ride, he never rode into the wind, and the course was "downhill" all the way to Paris.

It is easier to compare "hour" record attempts, but even then, there are differences...riding at sea level, riding at altitude, riding "funny" bikes in "funny" positions, riding traditional bikes in a traditional position.

^ +1. Comparing different TTs is basically comparing average speeds, and we all know how that varies.

Too many variables, even for the same course at different times.

You can't pull out any TTs as examples and hope to learn anything meaningful. You have to graph all world championship TTs or all Grand Tour TTs over a long period (like 50 years) and look at the trend. Then if you see a trend, you can do some statistical analysis to see if it is significant given the number of data points you used. Have fun.

well, I am a sociology Ph.D. student and I do know me some statistics.
A dataset would best be built with world championship ITT times, because they are generally loop courses where ITT in a grand tour may be point-to-point (leading to cases like LeMond's mentioned above).
However, the world championship ITT has only been run since 1994, so the data doesn't go far enough back to be able to do much with statistics.

I've been comparing TT times on a local course around here. What I've noticed is that the top times haven't really changed that much in the past 20-years. But what has changed is the numbers of people post fast times. I think it's partly due to the availability of speed-equipment as well as more regimented training programmes. The middle of the bell-curve has shifted towards the faster end, even though the end-points are roughly the same.

I need to go look up some State or National championship times as they're usually held on the same course year after year...

What I've noticed is that the top times haven't really changed that much in the past 20-years. But what has changed is the numbers of people posting fast times.


Absolutely.
Just look at how many fast group rides are available in any city of the country compared to 15 years ago.
TT times aren't any faster per se, but there is a hell of a lot more people posting decent results.

I've been comparing TT times on a local course around here. What I've noticed is that the top times haven't really changed that much in the past 20-years. But what has changed is the numbers of people post fast times. I think it's partly due to the availability of speed-equipment as well as more regimented training programmes. The middle of the bell-curve has shifted towards the faster end, even though the end-points are roughly the same.

I need to go look up some State or National championship times as they're usually held on the same course year after year...
Fascinating. Thanks for this info, Danno.

the Brits have been TT'ing on the same courses since the '30's in many cases. I bet you could find some good data there.

well, so much for those ITT results by Schumacher in the 2008 Tour de France...

Judging by the World Hour Record, they go up over the years.

Judging by the World Hour Record, they go up over the years.

Not really. The UCI sanctioned hour record was held by Merxk from 1972 until 2000, when Boardman beat him by 10 meters, not a lot. The curent record holder beat Merxk by less than 300m, or about one revolution of the track after an hour, so really the times haven't changed significantly.

And Armstrong was a wuss for not attempting the hour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hour_record

the hour record goes back before 1972

Not really. The UCI sanctioned hour record was held by Merxk from 1972 until 2000, when Boardman beat him by 10 meters, not a lot. The curent record holder beat Merxk by less than 300m, or about one revolution of the track after an hour, so really the times haven't changed significantly.

And Armstrong was a wuss for not attempting the hour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hour_record

Neat link - looks like regular bike tops out just under 50km/hr and the development of TT bikes gets you to 56km/hr.

Other than the fact that the TT bikes are cool, they should just to TTs on regular bikes with regulation rim and spoke dimensions.

the hour record goes back before 1972

and homeruns were hit before Babe Ruth, but it still barely matters...

and homeruns were hit before Babe Ruth, but it still barely matters...

I wouldn't say that to the families of Fausto Coppi and Jacques Anquetil