Advocacy & Safety - What if gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon?

Seems I remember reading somewhere the call to panic, "What if gasoline goes over $4.00 per gallon?!"

We all know the answer to that question; "Nothin' happened" People complained and kept buying gas and driving big ol' SUVs and trucks.

So the next question; "What if Gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon. Surprisingly, thanks to our friends in Houston and the Southwest, we know the answer to that too; "people will line up in great lines to buy gasoline at $5.00+ per gallon.

So, we seem to find that the higher the price, the more people want to buy??....

Of course, owing to the IMMENSE DAMAGE and chaos caused by Hurricane IKE that nearly WIPED OUT our petrolium production and distribution, folks in the southwest are panicing to buy gasoline.

Surely, one day soon, the midwest will have a tornado or snow or rain or locust or something which will wipe out petrolium manufacturing and distribution here and we will have mass panic and $5.00+/gallon gasoline too. Then we too will line up for gasoline in a panic.

$4.00/gallon. No bicycle madness yet.
$5.00/gallon. No bicycle madness yet.
Next?

Seems I remember reading somewhere the call to panic, "What if gasoline goes over $4.00 per gallon?!"

We all know the answer to that question; "Nothin' happened" People complained and kept buying gas and driving big ol' SUVs and trucks.

So the next question; "What if Gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon. Surprisingly, thanks to our friends in Houston and the Southwest, we know the answer to that too; "people will line up in great lines to buy gasoline at $5.00+ per gallon.

So, we seem to find that the higher the price, the more people want to buy??....

Of course, owing to the IMMENSE DAMAGE and chaos caused by Hurricane IKE that nearly WIPED OUT our petrolium production and distribution, folks in the southwest are panicing to buy gasoline.

Surely, one day soon, the midwest will have a tornado or snow or rain or locust or something which will wipe out petrolium manufacturing and distribution here and we will have mass panic and $5.00+/gallon gasoline too. Then we too will line up for gasoline in a panic.People are lining up to buy gasoline because it's in short supply, not because the price has risen.

As long as the water is slowly brought to a boil, the frog will continue to sit inside the pot.

As long as the water is slowly brought to a boil, the frog will continue to sit inside the pot.

That's good. That's a really succinct way of putting it.:thumb:

It's all just a repeat of what happened in the 70's, it's just for different reasons. Back then, people were stunned at the idea of paying one dollar for a gallon of gasoline. But they paid it, and eventually, they got used to it. $1.85, $2.00,,, When gasoline hit those price points, people got their bowels in an uproar all over again, but,,, they paid it, and they got used to it. Back in '78. someone I worked with told me "Americans will just pay, and pay, and pay for gas". Looks like he was right.

While I did notice lighter motor vehicle traffic on my evening rides this summer, I have not noticed any real decrease in the number of luxury SUV's in the tony suburbs west of the city of Boston. Hummers, Caddy Escalades, Lincoln Navigators, they're all there.

I've noticed allot more use of scooters and bikes around here.

Jerry

Seems I remember reading somewhere the call to panic, "What if gasoline goes over $4.00 per gallon?!"

We all know the answer to that question; "Nothin' happened" People complained and kept buying gas and driving big ol' SUVs and trucks

... and stopped paying their mortgages! Three of the top five investment banks are now gone, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. The two biggest, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have ceased to be investment banks and have changed status to commercial banks and can now acquire other commercial banks like Washington Mutual, which happens to now be the biggest bank crash in USA history after IndyMac, etc.

Airlines, too numerous to list have gone bust or been forced into mergers with competitors.

In addition Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, AIG, etc. have been nationalized and we still have the mother of all financial bailouts pending.

All of the above is ongoing and about to get worse as the USA heads into winter and people realize they can no longer afford heating oil.


So the next question; "What if Gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon. Surprisingly, thanks to our friends in Houston and the Southwest, we know the answer to that too; "people will line up in great lines to buy gasoline at $5.00+ per gallon.

So, we seem to find that the higher the price, the more people want to buy??....
Americans would give up their health insurance and homes before they give up cars. When they can no longer fill the tank using the credit card, that is when you will see a massive reduction in driving, the particular price point of gasoline that happens at, is largely academic.

The personal credit card crunch is about to hit the USA main street big time, the last quarter of 2008 will have the worst (inflation adjusted) retailing figures since the Great Depression that started in 1929.


Of course, owing to the IMMENSE DAMAGE and chaos caused by Hurricane IKE that nearly WIPED OUT our petroleum production and distribution, folks in the southwest are panicking to buy gasoline.

Surely, one day soon, the Midwest will have a tornado or snow or rain or locust or something which will wipe out petroleum manufacturing and distribution here and we will have mass panic and $5.00+/gallon gasoline too. Then we too will line up for gasoline in a panic.

The hurricanes did not cause "immense damage" to oil specific infrastructure - much of the damage was to the electricity supply on which the refineries are dependent. Off-shore facilities were strengthened as a consequence of Katrina and were far from "wiped out" by the latest hurricanes. Can you site some sources please?

It's all just a repeat of what happened in the 70's, it's just for different reasons. Back then, people were stunned at the idea of paying one dollar for a gallon of gasoline...

I remember that, I was in high school at the time. People were shocked when the rumors started to fly, <hushed whisper> "I heard that they've already started making gas pumps that go over a-dollar-a-gallon.":eek:

Heck, I can remember when I was little, some of my parent's friends talking about gas going up to $.35. Yes, 35 cents a gallon.

...The hurricanes did not cause "immense damage" to oil specific infrastructure - much of the damage was to the electricity supply on which the refineries are dependent. Off-shore facilities were strengthened as a consequence of Katrina and were far from "wiped out" by the latest hurricanes. Can you site some sources please?

Excellent post, HoustonB.

By the way, I was being sarcastic about Hurrican IKE wiping our our petrolium infrustructure. I am convinced it is way overblown just to cause panic and raise the price of gasoline.

I remember that, I was in high school at the time. People were shocked when the rumors started to fly, <hushed whisper> "I heard that they've already started making gas pumps that go over a-dollar-a-gallon.":eek:

Heck, I can remember when I was little, some of my parent's friends talking about gas going up to $.35. Yes, 35 cents a gallon.

I remember all of that too.

An interesting thing DID come out of it, though. For a time in the 1970's, it became fashionable to be self-sufficient. Remember Foxfire magazine/catalogues? People made everything from their own bread to to beer and clothes AND it was considered cool to do it.

Bicycling did have a huge surge in the 1970's and it peaked in the early 1980's. Funny how all that changed with Reagan and the Republicans after the economic mess the Republicans left after Nixon and Ford. Now, after eight years of Bush we are in another economic mess - bigger than we could have ever imagined in the 1970's and gasoline price is rising faster than hemlines in spring.

addictions determine the outcome...

USA! USA! USA! We are the best! YEAAAAH!!!1

If gas reaches $5.00 a gallon I'll eat my shoe!

(back to reality) If gas goes over $5 I'll have some interesting posts ro read in BF. :thumb:

I remember all of that too.

An interesting thing DID come out of it, though. For a time in the 1970's, it became fashionable to be self-sufficient. Remember Foxfire magazine/catalogues? People made everything from their own bread to to beer and clothes AND it was considered cool to do it.

Bicycling did have a huge surge in the 1970's and it peaked in the early 1980's. Funny how all that changed with Reagan and the Republicans after the economic mess the Republicans left after Nixon and Ford. Now, after eight years of Bush we are in another economic mess - bigger than we could have ever imagined in the 1970's and gasoline price is rising faster than hemlines in spring.


But you gotta remember that in the 70's Your dollar was backed up with gold. Thats why it was called the "GOLD STANDARD". I believe in '79 they got rid of that. (stupid as hell)

Your Gas isn't worth more today than your .35 cents back then. It is still the same amount. Its just your dollar is worth less.

And you can thank the oil companies for that, because even though it costs more to take oil out now (the oil wells are deeper) they have kept the cost down, because the sheer volume of sales they make more than makes up for it. In otherwords you get wholesale prices.

Not just that but the price of gas has been "artificially" kept low in the USA. Why do you think other countries pay more, while being closer to the source? Nothing is free though, youre still paying for it but not at the pump. kinda like when your super market puts some items on sale, but to make up for it they increase the price of other items.

It isn't the people I really give a **** about, they can buy smaller vehicles, find alternative modes of transportation, etc.

It's the transportation industry, mainly trucking, that I'm worried about, it's what gets my food to the store, prices get passed on, and trucking companies are feeling the pinch.


Your Gas isn't worth more today than your .35 cents back then. It is still the same amount. Its just your dollar is worth less.
Well it's a mix, part of it is that, and part of it is the increased costs in drilling.

In China, engineers make about 10X less than here in the US, at least at my company. Gas this past March while I was there was about $3.50 per gallon. So, with the economic impact of buying a gallon of gasoline in China equalling about $35 US/gallon, and with people over there flocking to cars like there's no tomorrow, I'd say we have a long way to go before we see massive changes to the vehicles on the roads.

What if gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon?

A couple of months ago I had the need to use my wife's car (I don't own one). I filled her tank and noticed the price was 5.01 for mid grade. I felt like lying on my back and making snow angels (it was July in Louisiana) while the car filled up, but the ground there was just too filthy.

I don't think John Q. Public will seriously start thinking about alternative transportation till gas hits $6 or more. Even then the mainstream thought will be towards more gas efficient vehicles, not bicycles.

The earliest gas price I recall is $.37 in North Carolina. Shortly afterward I recall only being able to buy gas on even numbered dates if our license plate had an even number, and same for odds.

I haven't had a car now for about 5 years, even though there's a Lincoln LSC I'm lusting after...

grawr, just take the bike and leave the rest of the country to it's turmoil

I don't think John Q. Public will seriously start thinking about alternative transportation till gas hits $6 or more. Even then the mainstream thought will be towards more gas efficient vehicles, not bicycles.

Exactly. If someone is driving a truck that gets 12mpg right now, their gas bill would be the same after switching to a 48mpg compact with gas at 4X today's price. That's about $14-$16 dollars/gallon. Almost up to that $35 Chinese gasoline ;)

As long as the water is slowly brought to a boil, the frog will continue to sit inside the pot.

I am not condoning animal cruelty nor misunderstanding the analogy, but is there any documented evidence that this is true?

I don't think John Q. Public will seriously start thinking about alternative transportation till gas hits $6 or more. Even then the mainstream thought will be towards more gas efficient vehicles, not bicycles.

You say the price of gasoline has to be over $6.00/gallon before people start making changes to their lifeslyles.

I think the price has to be over $10.00 per gallon. Why? Because it is over that price now in Europe and people are still driving cars. The USA is more hooked on automobile lifestyle than are Europeans, so I bet the number is even higher than that.

[QUOTE=HoustonB;7552869Americans would give up their health insurance and homes before they give up cars. When they can no longer fill the tank using the credit card, that is when you will see a massive reduction in driving, the particular price point of gasoline that happens at, is largely academic.

The personal credit card crunch is about to hit the USA main street big time, the last quarter of 2008 will have the worst (inflation adjusted) retailing figures since the Great Depression that started in 1929.
[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

People are dropping their health insurance, not traveling, taking out second mortgages, maxing credit cards and doing everything just to keep their motorist lifestyle.

The replacement for the motorcar will be hybrid cars, followed by compact electric cars, then scooters and finally the horse and buggy. Bottom line, there are no replacements for oil, coal and natural gas and when they are all gone, we will return to a lifestyle similar to our great grandfathers. Our need for motor transport will be over because what we have today was never sustainable in the first place.

The good news to our energy crisis is that all of our important activities like work, marriage, shopping and other social activities will continue even after the motorcar becomes a museum piece. You see, we never really needed a combustion engine to do all these things in the first place. There is going to be massive restructuring of jobs and wealth in this country including a huge relocation of the population. However, we got along well for over 300 years without the motorcar but no one can remember how good life was like before they had to spend 15-30 percent of their income on transportation. Our government forced the motorcar lifestyle in the 1950's because it increased spending and consumption which was good for the economy. Even though it increased our quality of life, this paradigm is near the end as the middle class and the poor can no longer afford the costly lifestyle that comes with hyper-mobility.

The local paper posted a funny comic that posited that bicycling will become immensely more popular once gasoline runs $10 per gallon(in 2007 dollars). But the economics of current electric vehicles become immediately justifiable at $8 per gallon(or so value less than that) for many users, so I have a feeling there'd be more electrification than bicycling if it ever rose that high.

Gas is over $5 in Canada and slightly fewer people drive than in the US
Gas is over $8 in the UK and slightly fewer people drive than in Canada
Gas is also over $8 elsewhere in Europe and very few people drive i.e. Netherlands, Sweden

Point being, an increase of gas prices over any supposed "breaking point" isn't going to do anything except bring a small decrease in driving - don't 65% of Britons (somewhere around there) drive despite $8-9 "petrol" prices? Government policy affects driving alot more than gasoline prices.

So the next question; "What if Gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon.

Absolutely nothing, it's still dirt cheap at $5/gal.

gas is about $8 where we live, but people keep driving because gas has always been expensive. Same thing for CDs, people still buy them, even though they cost about double the American price. It's not how much it costs, but how fast the price goes up, so as long as the price stays steady or goes up slowly, people will keep buying the product. Eventually the price will go up so quickly as gas gets really scarce that people will ditch their cars and go for public transport, bikes, or EVs.

gas is about $8 where we live, but people keep driving because gas has always been expensive. Same thing for CDs, people still buy them, even though they cost about double the American price. It's not how much it costs, but how fast the price goes up, so as long as the price stays steady or goes up slowly, people will keep buying the product. Eventually the price will go up so quickly as gas gets really scarce that people will ditch their cars and go for public transport, bikes, or EVs.

Thanks, adriang.

With gasoline at $8.00 per gallon, do you see more people in Switzerland riding bicycles than you might see in the USA?

I cannot remember paying less than $10/gallon here in Norway--- and we are a huge oil exporter. We somehow manage.

I cannot remember paying less than $10/gallon here in Norway--- and we are a huge oil exporter. We somehow manage.

I don't think the $10.00 a gallon price is actually reflective of the real cost using the US dollar. I belive the Brits are paying $8.00 USD or around there but it's actually closer to $4.00 USD due to the fact the BPS is twice the dollar. The falling US dollar makes European prices look for more expensive.

I remember that, I was in high school at the time. People were shocked when the rumors started to fly, <hushed whisper> "I heard that they've already started making gas pumps that go over a-dollar-a-gallon.":eek:

Right. Since there weren't enough mechanical wheels to go over 99.9 cents we had pumps calibrated to meter in half gallons for a while. Yep, like 58.9 cents (or what ever) per half gallon.

... and stopped paying their mortgages! Three of the top five investment banks are now gone, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. The two biggest, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have ceased to be investment banks and have changed status to commercial banks and can now acquire other commercial banks like Washington Mutual, which happens to now be the biggest bank crash in USA history after IndyMac, etc.
Those were never viable mortgages to begin with, and much of the downfall was due to mismanagement and greed. Everything they did flew in the face of common sense and basic economics. IMHO Fractional Banking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Banking) is unsustainable in the long term


Airlines, too numerous to list have gone bust or been forced into mergers with competitors.

Again due to greed and poor planning. Southwest has a viable business plan and has managed to meet or beat all projections in the past several years. FWIW I am too intimately aquainted with USAirways and their totally incompetent management team. Again ECON 101, you cannot provide a service or product and sell if for less than the cost of producing it for very long AND remain in business.


In addition Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, AIG, etc. have been nationalized and we still have the mother of all financial bailouts pending.
Bend over taxpayers here it comes, though I suspect that there aren't going to be very many taxpayers left in the near future. People making $10 an hour or drawing unemployment/assistance don't pay taxes to amount to anything.


All of the above is ongoing and about to get worse as the USA heads into winter and people realize they can no longer afford heating oil.


Americans would give up their health insurance and homes before they give up cars. When they can no longer fill the tank using the credit card, that is when you will see a massive reduction in driving, the particular price point of gasoline that happens at, is largely academic.

The personal credit card crunch is about to hit the USA main street big time, the last quarter of 2008 will have the worst (inflation adjusted) retailing figures since the Great Depression that started in 1929.



The hurricanes did not cause "immense damage" to oil specific infrastructure - much of the damage was to the electricity supply on which the refineries are dependent. Off-shore facilities were strengthened as a consequence of Katrina and were far from "wiped out" by the latest hurricanes. Can you site some sources please?

No argument from me:thumb:

Aaron:)

In China, engineers make about 10X less than here in the US, at least at my company. Gas this past March while I was there was about $3.50 per gallon. So, with the economic impact of buying a gallon of gasoline in China equalling about $35 US/gallon, and with people over there flocking to cars like there's no tomorrow, I'd say we have a long way to go before we see massive changes to the vehicles on the roads.

And their bridges/buildings collapse 10x as much..

Hmm... :rolleyes:

And their bridges/buildings collapse 10x as much..

Hmm... :rolleyes:

If you would like to start a China bashing thread, P&R is probably the more appropriate place.

If you would like to start a China bashing thread, P&R is probably the more appropriate place.

+1. If anything, lots of corporations are flocking to international engineers because they're just as trained as US engineers (often better, in some cases) and work for less money.

I don't think the $10.00 a gallon price is actually reflective of the real cost using the US dollar. I belive the Brits are paying $8.00 USD or around there but it's actually closer to $4.00 USD due to the fact the BPS is twice the dollar. The falling US dollar makes European prices look for more expensive.

According to this site (http://www.petrolprices.com/) they're paying 110.3 pence per liter. Which is about 1.73 pounds per gallon or $3.18 a gallon.

I thought it was supposed to be higher. Maybe their taxes are added after like a sales tax?

Edit:
Looks like it must be. Their tax is supposedly about 95 pence per liter (there's no way the gas is 15 pence a liter on its own). So, that's $5.94 a gallon.

That's pretty similar to what US gas would probably cost if all road taxes were paid with a gasoline tax and the 25% subsidy were also covered by the gasoline tax. Maybe a bit higher. They probably pay a wheel tax too, but I have no idea or inclination to check.

I don't think the $10.00 a gallon price is actually reflective of the real cost using the US dollar. I belive the Brits are paying $8.00 USD or around there but it's actually closer to $4.00 USD due to the fact the BPS is twice the dollar. The falling US dollar makes European prices look for more expensive.

wtf? by that reasoning, everybody in Japan is dirt poor because their currency is worth a thousand times less than the dollar. The point is, if the Pound is worth twice as much as the USD, then Brits are probably making half as much and stuff costs twice as much. I.e. an american makes $10 an hour and pays $4 a gallon for gas would be the same as a briton making 5lbs(=$10) an hour yet paying 4lbs(=$8) a gallon. (They still pay twice as much for gas)

Huh? The US has dirt cheap gas relative to most of the world--- and a low cost of living compared to many places in Europe. This has been going on long before the dollar fell. Your math doesn't work.


I don't think the $10.00 a gallon price is actually reflective of the real cost using the US dollar. I belive the Brits are paying $8.00 USD or around there but it's actually closer to $4.00 USD due to the fact the BPS is twice the dollar. The falling US dollar makes European prices look for more expensive.

Seems I remember reading somewhere the call to panic, "What if gasoline goes over $4.00 per gallon?!"

Usage went down, measurably so, that is what.

I cannot remember paying less than $10/gallon here in Norway--- and we are a huge oil exporter. We somehow manage.

Thank You!

We too will manage - by learning to live with less waste.

According to this site (http://www.petrolprices.com/) they're paying 110.3 pence per liter. Which is about 1.73 pounds per gallon or $3.18 a gallon...

Um Dude... 1.103Pounds/L * 3.79L/Gallon = 4.18Pounds/Gallon * 1.8408 USD/Pound = 7.70$/Gallon

So the next question; "What if Gasoline goes over $5.00 per gallon. Surprisingly, thanks to our friends in Houston and the Southwest, we know the answer to that too; "people will line up in great lines to buy gasoline at $5.00+ per gallon.

So, we seem to find that the higher the price, the more people want to buy??....

$4.00/gallon. No bicycle madness yet.
$5.00/gallon. No bicycle madness yet.
Next?

It keeps popping up over $5/gallon here in Canada ... 2 weekends ago, for example, it went up to $1.40/litre in this part of Canada ($5.32/gallon) and we've got some of the least expensive fuel in Canada here ... so the rest of Canada was higher that weekend.

What happened? That weekend I rode a century (my September Century) ... and noticed that the traffic on the road was the same, if not heavier than usual. And as usual, it was all SUVs and pick-up trucks. In other words ... nothing out of the ordinary happens when fuel goes over $5/gallon.

Thankfully it went down again after that weekend ... but who knows how long that will last.

wtf? by that reasoning, everybody in Japan is dirt poor because their currency is worth a thousand times less than the dollar. The point is, if the Pound is worth twice as much as the USD, then Brits are probably making half as much and stuff costs twice as much. I.e. an american makes $10 an hour and pays $4 a gallon for gas would be the same as a briton making 5lbs(=$10) an hour yet paying 4lbs(=$8) a gallon. (They still pay twice as much for gas)

And your source for all that fascinating information is ........ ????????

And your source for all that fascinating information is ........ ????????

It was hypothetical...I was just saying that you don't magically make twice as much just by living in a country where the currency is worth more.

It was hypothetical...I was just saying that you don't magically make twice as much just by living in a country where the currency is worth more.

Hypothetical ... and somewhat incorrect.

Was the bit about all Japanese being poor also hypothetical?


Have a look here, for example. The average minimum for a primary school teacher in the UK is £30,492.99.
http://www.totaljobs.com/SalaryChecker/SalaryCheckerResults.aspx?IndustryId=29&LocationId=1638&IndustryName=Education&LocationName=UK
And the average minimum for a primary school teacher in Alberta is $43,653

Right now, with the exchange rate between Canada and the UK, that $43, 653 is worth £22,449.00 ... so the teachers in the UK are making more money than the teachers in Canada. They would have to because things are more expensive in the UK. Have you been?

Excellent post, HoustonB.

By the way, I was being sarcastic about Hurrican IKE wiping our our petrolium infrustructure. I am convinced it is way overblown just to cause panic and raise the price of gasoline.


Not really, refining production was knocked down by 25 %. Gas supplies were already at a marginal level. Demand in the disaster area for gas to run generators also hurt other parts of the nation. Expect supplies to remain low for a while.

BTW, paid $3.37 for gasoline today, so it may hit $5 in some areas because of shortages, but prices seem to vary across a broad range.

If petrol goes over 5 bucks a gallon I'll have to pay over 5 bucks a gallon for petrol.

Hypothetical ... and somewhat incorrect.

Was the bit about all Japanese being poor also hypothetical?


Have a look here, for example. The average minimum for a primary school teacher in the UK is £30,492.99.
http://www.totaljobs.com/SalaryChecker/SalaryCheckerResults.aspx?IndustryId=29&LocationId=1638&IndustryName=Education&LocationName=UK
And the average minimum for a primary school teacher in Alberta is $43,653

Right now, with the exchange rate between Canada and the UK, that $43, 653 is worth £22,449.00 ... so the teachers in the UK are making more money than the teachers in Canada. They would have to because things are more expensive in the UK. Have you been?

Yes, it was all hypothetical. But anyways, here's a list of nominal GDP per capitas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita) and another list of GDP per capitas that take into account cost of living (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). Point being, the UK is barely ahead of Canada going by exchange rate alone, and is 8 places behind when cost of living is taken into account. Maybe lower end occupations like teaching are different, but going by exchange rate alone the *average* Canadian and Briton makes about the same amount.

If you would like to start a China bashing thread, P&R is probably the more appropriate place.

Too lazy to get access.

Plus they're a developing country, nothing bashing about it, they all have the whole quality control issue during this phase, America had it bad.



Oh wait this is A&S.

China sucks!