Foo - when stock prices go down

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kevmk81
10-24-08, 01:13 PM
Say a company's stock goes down 10% or more within a short period of time. If it's drastic, and stays low for quite some time, is there without a doubt going to be layoffs? What would change, from the standpoint of running the company? Just curious if anybody had any insite.
CbadRider
10-24-08, 01:17 PM
I wouldn't pay much attention to the stock these days. How are the monthly profits? My company's stock has tanked along with everyone else's but we continue to make a lot of money so will be hiring like mad for the next year.
timmhaan
10-24-08, 01:26 PM
a lot of things are reflected in the price of stocks. some of them are specific to the company and some of them are industry wide or even because of global fears. right now, people are yanking money out of the market and even great companies are seeing their stock prices drop.
you can take a benchmark like the Dow or S&P500, and compare your stock to that. better yet, compare it to the industry group it belongs to. if you're talking about a bank stock, for example, compare it to other banks. if your stock is plummeting much faster than others then there may indeed be some trouble ahead.
kevmk81
10-24-08, 01:27 PM
I wouldn't pay much attention to the stock these days. How are the monthly profits? My company's stock has tanked along with everyone else's but we continue to make a lot of money so will be hiring like mad for the next year.
Good point.
I'm just asking with an inquizitive mind, so no idea on monthly profits.
The company I work for doesn't have stock options, it isn't public. In fact, it's a nfp - sort of.
Stock prices are really only what someone is willing to pay at any given time. Right now, no one knows where the overall market is going, so ppl are sitting on the sidelines. Fewer people buying, prices fall.
There is usually an 'estimated share value', and most of the time it is not the same as the stock price. In fact, in recent years many companies have been making business decisions based on share price, and quarterly reports, which isn't necessarily in the best interest of the company.
USAZorro
10-24-08, 01:57 PM
Many of the investors over the past decade or so were mainly interested in the prospects of the stock value rising, much more than they were interested in the fundamentals of the company. We're having a huge shake-out now.
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 02:46 PM
Well... isn't the main reason you buy stock to make money? If the price goes up, you make money. If it goes down, you lose money. There are secondary factors that will affect the price of the stock, such as earnings. But the primary and only factor that determines a stock's price is exactly what the next buyer is willing to give you for it. They may have a tonne of 'reasons' WHY they want to purchase said stock at such-and-such a price, such earnings, market-share, unique-products, management-ownership, float, etc., but those factors are secondary. Major regulations have changed the market-mechanisms in 1975, but very few people have adjusted their investment strategies to take advantage of those regulatory changes.
Say a company's stock goes down 10% or more within a short period of time. If it's drastic, and stays low for quite some time, is there without a doubt going to be layoffs? What would change, from the standpoint of running the company? Just curious if anybody had any insite.Stock prices don't have an affect on the company's operations. Aside from using stock as a collateral for loans or to find financing for an IPO. But conversely, on the other hand, a company's operations may directly affect the stock-price more.
It used to be that a company's earnings would have a direct impact on the stock price. This was back in the days of 20-40% dividend payments from profits. You could actually calculate exactly what your dividend return would be given the stock's price, the dividend-yield and the earnings. With the same earnings, a company with lower stock price would give you a higher-rate of return.
Today however, with very few stocks paying any dividends at all, or very low 1-2%, the earnings don't directly affect the price. But, if the players in the market look at earnings as an indicator, then their mentality will then affect the price they are willing to pay for the stock. If they aren't willing to pay a high-price, but are looking to dump their existing shares, the price will go down. If they want to own that stock, along with a lot of others, then yes the price will go up because they're willing to pay more for it.
Good example is the "worth" of an antique cabinet in a consignment store. Someone may be willing to pay $5000 for it. I see a pile of firewood and will offer you $40/cord for it. Somewhere in the middle may be a fair price. Typically the last sale-price is a reference for the next sale, but that's still secondary as it's really what the next buyer is willing to pay that directly and ultimate determines the sale price.
Check out: "Trading Places". :)
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 03:06 PM
A good example of the "mentality" aspect of the market players is the earnings game. Well before a company comes out with their 10q, "analysts" in the field will tossed their hats in the ring with bets as to what the company will post for earnings results. Sure, there's a lot of research on the background of the company, the product-line, the sales-volumes and profit-margins, etc. that they use to best determine the earnings-report. But ultimate, it's still a guess. And when you combined 10-20 guesses together, you come up with something like a "expert's prediction", "industry expectations" report.
So these jokers all say something like, "BlahBlah Corp. will earn $450mil for 4th quarter, for $0.45 earnings per share (EPS). This is a +21% growth rate over last year's quarter. Great, good "guess". And people's "mentality and mood" then act on this guess and they may sit on the edge of their chairs in anticipation or they may actually pick up some stock. Then the BlahBlah company comes out with their real 10q which states: "For 4th quarter, we earned $440mil for $0.44 eps, a 20% improvement over last year's quarter.". What do you think will happen?
THE STOCK TANKS!!! Any company that makes a 20% earnings increase is doing darn good business. But the market and the players in it will punish the stock-price because the company didn't meet expectations. It's ultimately the market-players mood and mentality that determines how much or how little they are willing to pay for the next transaction in that stock.
Of course the the stock should tank. The current price of the stock has the expectations factored into it. If the company doesn't meet expectations then it's valued too high and one should sell. Conversely if a company loses less money then expected (but still has a loss) then the price should go up.
Say a company's stock goes down 10% or more within a short period of time. If it's drastic, and stays low for quite some time, is there without a doubt going to be layoffs? What would change, from the standpoint of running the company? Just curious if anybody had any insite.
Stock price in my company is down 60% from the 52-wk high. We're not laying off, but then again, we don't operate at a deficit and don't need to borrow money to make payroll, thank god. We still earn ~$3/share, hah and our sales are still growing.
We're DEFINITELY cutting back, but not laying off just yet.
It all depends on how well your company is managed. If your company is deep in the red and depends on cheap borrowing to make payroll every two weeks, then you probably have something to worry about. If you've been posting loss after loss after loss and your numbers all start with a minus sign, it's time to polish up the resume and start looking.
timmyquest
10-24-08, 03:33 PM
Say a company's stock goes down 10% or more within a short period of time. If it's drastic, and stays low for quite some time, is there without a doubt going to be layoffs? What would change, from the standpoint of running the company? Just curious if anybody had any insite.
Start looking for another job?
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 04:01 PM
Stock price in my company is down 60% from the 52-wk high. We're not laying off, but then again, we don't operate at a deficit and don't need to borrow money to make payroll, thank god. We still earn ~$3/share, hah and our sales are still growing. Does this mean your earnings are also down 60%?
Does this mean your earnings are also down 60%?
No. Why would it?
banerjek
10-24-08, 04:10 PM
Well... isn't the main reason you buy stock to make money? If the price goes up, you make money. If it goes down, you lose money. There are secondary factors that will affect the price of the stock, such as earnings. But the primary and only factor that determines a stock's price is exactly what the next buyer is willing to give you for it. They may have a tonne of 'reasons' WHY they want to purchase said stock at such-and-such a price, such earnings, market-share, unique-products, management-ownership, float, etc., but those factors are secondary.
Sounds kind of like a ponzi scheme to me. But I'm grouchy because I've lost well over 50% of my retirement this year :eek: I have no one to blame but myself since I purposely took a riskier trajectory and was aware that financing based on loans that made no sense to me was fueling many of the gains. But it's a good time to buy cheap now :thumb:
The recent housing meltdown has been like that too. People kept buying houses at insane prices that way outpaced inflation, and now it's time to get back to reality.
But I'm grouchy because I've lost well over 50% of my retirement this year :eek:
Don't worry, you'll lose the rest of it next year when it is confiscated and put into the social security system.
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 04:17 PM
No. Why would it?Sorry, I was thinking PE instead of EPS.
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 04:51 PM
Sounds kind of like a ponzi scheme to me. But I'm grouchy because I've lost well over 50% of my retirement this year :eek: I have no one to blame but myself since I purposely took a riskier trajectory and was aware that financing based on loans that made no sense to me was fueling many of the gains. But it's a good time to buy cheap now :thumb:Sure, throw more perfectly good cash into a burning fire! I don't like single-sided positions, I always buy an insurance-policy. Anyone who've gotten into a car crash without insurance knows how much that hurts. Same with buying stocks or funds without insurance. In some cases, like severe drops over 25%, the insurance will actually pay me more than what I lost in the stock. The percentage of the time that it goes down is smaller, but when it does, it goes down way faster than it goes up and takes you years to recover, if ever.
The recent housing meltdown has been like that too. People kept buying houses at insane prices that way outpaced inflation, and now it's time to get back to reality.yeah, housing prices for decades have matched inflation (averages 7% for the long-term). I don't think higher appreciation rates are bad, as long as it matched something like earnings and wages. But I don't know of too many people getting 15% pay-raises every year.
People kept buying houses at insane prices that way outpaced inflation, and now it's time to get back to reality.
snipped a lot. I'm waiting for this to happen to health insurance. Same plan as last year is up 25% (24.97% to be precise).
banerjek
10-24-08, 05:25 PM
Sure, throw more perfectly good cash into a burning fire!
Yeah, that's the rub. But this isn't the first time I got clobbered. Around 9/11, I also lost over 50%, and it took about 5 years to recover.
However, I still have plenty of time, and as my timeframe shortens, I'll play more conservatively. Even with these huge losses, I still do decent compared to what I would have done had I used the old lady investing strategies my wife goes by. I lose big from time to time, but I gain big too. In the long run, I come out ahead from the best I can tell. I'm not confident I'll be back to normal in 5 years, but I am confident I'll be back to normal when it matters.
Also, I believe you should never bet anything you can't bear to part with.
DannoXYZ
10-24-08, 07:42 PM
Yeah, that's the rub. But this isn't the first time I got clobbered. Around 9/11, I also lost over 50%, and it took about 5 years to recover.
However, I still have plenty of time, and as my timeframe shortens, I'll play more conservatively. Even with these huge losses, I still do decent compared to what I would have done had I used the old lady investing strategies my wife goes by. I lose big from time to time, but I gain big too. In the long run, I come out ahead from the best I can tell. I'm not confident I'll be back to normal in 5 years, but I am confident I'll be back to normal when it matters.
Also, I believe you should never bet anything you can't bear to part with.Yeah, and you can do even better. Insurance man... buy insurance... :)
timmhaan
10-24-08, 08:30 PM
Of course the the stock should tank. The current price of the stock has the expectations factored into it. If the company doesn't meet expectations then it's valued too high and one should sell. Conversely if a company loses less money then expected (but still has a loss) then the price should go up.
expectations for the performance of a company play a part of it certainly. but price can be influenced by so many other things.
one thing is momentum of price. if a stock is being bought, the demand is driving the price up. this alerts others who want in on the action. they buy more and the price keeps going up. i would say that most of these momentum players know very little about the details of the company or really care that much about earnings (remember the .com boom?) this can drive a stock price too high, and even if the company meets all the expectations, people who already made money will sell off, and the price will drop. depending on the frenzy, you can even see companies report earning above expectations and still see the price drop. i used to get screwed on this all the time.
a keen investor, who has a good idea of the value of a stock, can buy it when the price dips low enough under the idea that the market will eventually price it more accurately. a solid understanding of how to do this accurately is difficult, but most people "sense" when it becomes a bargain and start accumulating the stock again.
recumelectric
10-25-08, 03:38 AM
Yeah, and you can do even better. Insurance man... buy insurance... :)
Isn't that what AIG sells? Sh!^. They screwed me over on car insurance years ago (dropped my policy without telling me). Like I'm going to trust one of those guys to back me up in a bad economy.
DannoXYZ
10-25-08, 11:20 AM
No, you buy a put-option along with your stock. I usually pick up a OTM put that's about 5% of the stock position. Then if the stock goes down 10%, the put increases by 100% and offsets any losses in the stock position. Once the put is ITM, it matches the stock's fall with a matching gain. No matter how far the stock falls, I lose no money. This lets me hang onto a stock that's falling and not take a hit.
But that's still a zero-sum game as it's flat. Typically I'll be closed out when a stock falls and be shorting it on the way down.
wernmax
10-25-08, 01:08 PM
No, you buy a put-option along with your stock. I usually pick up a OTM put that's about 5% of the stock position. Then if the stock goes down 10%, the put increases by 100% and offsets any losses in the stock position. Once the put is ITM, it matches the stock's fall with a matching gain. No matter how far the stock falls, I lose no money. This lets me hang onto a stock that's falling and not take a hit.
But that's still a zero-sum game as it's flat. Typically I'll be closed out when a stock falls and be shorting it on the way down.
Sigh...what do you want to bet there's only about three of us here that knows what you said?
You'll have to explain that in longhand, Danno. Plus it's doubtful that they're playing in those percentages. I don't know if your stock options are in blocks, but if one Put is 100 shares, they'd be playing 2,000 held shares. And they have to stay not too far Out-of-the-Money, for the gain curve to cover losses, but then premiums get high.
Still...good insurance, almost what we do in the PM's.
Can you believe an 88 dollar!? Never thought we'd see that again.
timmhaan
10-25-08, 01:45 PM
if there ever was a time for put options - this past year has been it. i never sold one stock i owned, and still have a 10% gain year-to-date. i could have been much more aggressive, but i don't trust myself when i start to get too greedy.
i don't even buy options on individual stocks most times, i just keep an option or two open on the prevailing trend of the S&P and cash in after the big moves to buy more stock. the easiest strategies are often the best, especially since this bear market is acting exactly like a bear market.
most people put more time and effort into buying a bike then they do on their investments. i'll never understand that.
Isn't that what AIG sells? Sh!^. They screwed me over on car insurance years ago (dropped my policy without telling me). Like I'm going to trust one of those guys to back me up in a bad economy.
Apparently AIG execs just used a part of their portion of the bailout for deluxe spa packages and huntins trips in the UK to the tune of a lot of money. And they are now asking for more money after running through nearly $122 billion.
most people put more time and effort into buying a bike then they do on their investments. i'll never understand that.
Out of sight, out of mind...
Who actually spends more time watching CNBC than on the saddle?
timmhaan
10-25-08, 02:03 PM
i hate CNBC. every day you have 10 people yelling at you that now is the time to buy and another 10 people saying now is the time to sell. they cater to the wannabe day trader. hell, you could gain more insight from a 200 day moving average line on a chart than half of the pundits on there.
i usually don't trust any source that relies on dramatic headlines to draw traffic. the old boring sources like the financial times, nytimes business, bloomberg, etc. are vastly more informative. :)
wernmax
10-25-08, 02:10 PM
if there ever was a time for put options - this past year has been it. i never sold one stock i owned, and still have a 10% gain year-to-date. i could have been much more aggressive, but i don't trust myself when i start to get too greedy.
i don't even buy options on individual stocks most times, i just keep an option or two open on the prevailing trend of the S&P and cash in after the big moves to buy more stock. the easiest strategies are often the best, especially since this bear market is acting exactly like a bear market.
most people put more time and effort into buying a bike then they do on their investments. i'll never understand that.
Good job, that sounds pretty smart. I'd still beware, other than a DCB I'm afraid the Dow's days are numbered, as where is the flood of money provided by "house as ATM" now going to come from?
I couldn't talk myself into even one YMZ8 8000 P @ 38 a few weeks ago...now over 700! I'm usually stupid on a grand scale. :lol:
ProShares Ultrashorts FTW! :)
timmhaan
10-25-08, 02:27 PM
Good job, that sounds pretty smart. I'd still beware, other than a DCB I'm afraid the Dow's days are numbered, as where is the flood of money provided by "house as ATM" now going to come from?
I couldn't talk myself into even one YMZ8 8000 P @ 38 a few weeks ago...now over 700! I'm usually stupid on a grand scale. :lol:
exactly! i have no idea what a post "de-leveraged" market will look like, and i fear we'll languish around for another 10 years in no-man's land. however, i can't shake the fact that i'm an investor at heart and love to accumulate stock. not sure why, but it pains me greatly to sell anything...even though the reality is i own an almost microscopic portion of these companies, a true lightweight by any measure. i guess i just like the stream of dividends.
damn, that option would have netted you some 1800%!! hindsight is cruel mistress. :(
where is the flood of money provided by "house as ATM" now going to come from?
Something else will takes its place. Eventually.
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 02:01 AM
No, you buy a put-option along with your stock. I usually pick up a OTM put that's about 5% of the stock position. Then if the stock goes down 10%, the put increases by 100% and offsets any losses in the stock position. Once the put is ITM, it matches the stock's fall with a matching gain. No matter how far the stock falls, I lose no money. This lets me hang onto a stock that's falling and not take a hit.
But that's still a zero-sum game as it's flat. Typically I'll be closed out when a stock falls and be shorting it on the way down.
It's great you're apparently having some success trading stock options, but as you know, folks can certainly lose their initial investment -- that being the price they paid to buy an option -- if opening a long position.
In your scenario above, if your stock closes at or higher than your put option's strike price on expiration date, and you haven't sold or exercised the option, you'll lose your initial investment (price paid to buy the option). Of course, if you sell your put option before expiration date, and the intrinsic value and time value are low enough, you'll also lose some or all of your initial investment.
In other words, if the price of your stock stays above your put option's strike price as the expiration date nears, you're going to lose some or all of the price you paid for the option. Granted, you'll have had the 'peace of mind' by owning it, but you'll have paid for it. Repeating that over time, to maintain that peace of mind, can become expensive.
To the uninitiated: Trading stock options is essentially betting on the future price of a stock. Most folks lose money trading options. That said, options can be a way to buy some peace of mind if they're used as a hedge. Further, with some skill, luck, and advanced strategies, it's possible to make gains trading options -- like a professional gambler.
DannoXYZ
10-26-08, 11:40 AM
Does anyone lament the cost of auto-insurance? Or homeowner's insurance? Earthquake or fire-insurance? Or an insurance-bond if you're a retail business? It's a small cost to prevent the loss of a much larger amount.
You must take precautions, bet on the best-case scenario, but you must also prepare for the worst as well. To put all your eggs into one basket betting on things going only one way is reckless and irresponsible.
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 12:04 PM
...It's a small cost to prevent the loss of a much larger amount...
It's not really a small cost.
Boeing stock closed at $45.24 on Friday. If somebody owns 100 shares of Boeing (value = $4,524) and bought one November 2008 40 Put Option on Friday at the closing ask, which was 2.05 ($205), then the price of Boeing stock stayed the same or drifted up until that option's expiration date of November 21, they would lose that $205 plus commission.
Do that five times a year in a flat or bull market -- when Boeing stock is relatively flat or rising -- and you'll be losing more than $1,000 per year trading options.
Do the same thing five times a year with a 30 Put Option and lose $275 plus five commissions per year -- say a total of $325.
Options have their place in the investment arena, but they aren't an inexpensive insurance instrument. Folks use them in many ways. One way might be to protect a stock position during a particularly uncertain economic time, such as now.
To use them as an ongoing hedge is an expensive strategy.
DannoXYZ
10-26-08, 12:13 PM
Do that five times a year in a flat or bull market -- when Boeing stock is relatively flat or rising -- and you'll be losing more than $1,000 per year trading options.Yeah and we're certainly in a bull-market huh? Well, if it's flat, you'd sell a call to cover the cost of the put. Heck, you can sell two calls and make a profit, even with buying insurance to protect yourself against a drop.
How much did people lose who didn't have the insurance? What's -50% of a retirement portfolio worth? I bet the majority of people have lost more than $1000 in their portfolio this year. Heck I used to pay my brokers over 10x that each just to print and fax charts to me wherever I am in the world. That small cost allowed me to make easily 20x more money.
People get too stuck in 1:1 ratios with profit:loss or risk:reward ratios. When you can unlink the upside versus downside, you're able to make a lot more on the upside. There's no reason you have to take a -50% hit just because the overall market goes down on a +50% investment. There's plenty of strategies on managing the downside and pretty much all of them are better than losing 50%.
Going back to my previous post, you have to be observant - seeing what's happening out there, flexible - your overall strategy must be able to adjust your tactics to meet current conditions, and resourceful - having the ability to devise new tactics to take advantage of the new market regulations and conditions. The future will always be different than you anticipated, that needs to be an integral part of your strategy, how to deal with the unknown and when things don't go according to plan. Anyone who owns or runs a business knows the value of insurance.
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 12:37 PM
...Well, if it's flat, you'd sell a call to cover the cost of the put. Heck, you can sell two calls and make a profit, even with buying insurance to protect yourself against a drop...
Selling a covered call runs the risk of having your shares called away -- that is, your shares being purchased from you by the call holder at the strike price -- which would likely result in a loss to you.
Selling that second call, presumably an uncovered call, opens up unlimited risk to you. If the stock rises sharply and the holder exercises that call, you will have a large loss.
As I wrote, options have their place, but they're not a simple or inexpensive way to make money. In these likely rough economic times ahead, some folks can get into unfamiliar investment waters and make decisions without fully understanding the risks. Shedding a little light on the issue is good.
DannoXYZ
10-26-08, 12:48 PM
Selling that second call, presumably an uncovered call, opens up unlimited risk to you. If the stock rises sharply and the holder exercises that call, you will have a large loss.Huh what? Your risk on an uncovered call is the difference between the current market-price versus the strike-price of the option you sold. If you act fast, it's actually less than the premium you collected for the contract and you still end up with a profit. Uncovered puts have a lot bigger risk.
That's why one must learn the various strategies to limit risk. Just throwing money into the market betting it'll always go up is simply insane. Simply taking your money off the table when things drop is very basic strategy. You can use any combination of MACD, RSI, stochastics to determine the turnaround point. Simply using any kind of indicator, anyone can tell that the market tanked a long time ago. Heck, I've made more from shorts and puts so far this year than my totals from the past three years combined.
As I wrote, options have their place, but they're not a simple or inexpensive way to make money. In these likely rough economic times ahead, some folks can get into unfamiliar investment waters and make decisions without fully understanding the risks. Shedding a little light on the issue is good.I said it's a way to prevent large losses. You can make money selling options, but not very much.
You have to match the strategy to the conditions. Why are you talking about conditions that don't exist right now? If we all saved our money and not wasted so much food, we can ship it to 3rd world nations and save millions of people from hunger. If we didn't waste so much gas driving around in SUVs, we wouldn't be so dependent upon foreign oil. So what?
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 01:10 PM
Selling that second call, presumably an uncovered call, opens up unlimited risk to you. If the stock rises sharply and the holder exercises that call, you will have a large loss.
Huh what? Your risk on an uncovered call is the difference between the current market-price versus the strike-price of the option you sold...
Your risk when selling an uncovered call is unlimited.
If the buyer of the call decides to exercise, you will be forced to buy the stock at the market price to supply it to him -- and the upside potential of that stock price is, of course, unlimited.
... Uncovered puts have a lot bigger risk.
That's incorrect. As I wrote, the "risk when selling uncovered calls is unlimited" -- as is the risk when selling uncovered puts.
Simply using any kind of indicator, anyone can tell that the market tanked a long time ago.
Well, it's a pretty safe bet the stock market will have a long term upward trend. Claims of whether it has "tanked" in the short term are not as assured.
DannoXYZ
10-26-08, 01:58 PM
Well, you're talking in theoretical generalizations and I'm pointing out specific strategies for specific cases of market conditions. Show me one stock that has unlimited price. Or one options contract with no expiration date. What actually happens in the market is very different from textbook classroom scenarios.
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 02:14 PM
Well, you're talking in theoretical generalizations...
No. Selling uncovered calls or uncovered puts has the same risk -- unlimited. That's not a "theoretical generalization," that's a fact in the real world. When trading options, it would be wise to clearly understand it.
Show me one stock that has unlimited price.
All stocks have unlimited upside price potential. Assuming otherwise when trading options is unwise.
I'm glad you're apparently having some success trading options. For others, it's important to know it's easier said than done, and more importantly, to fully understand the risks.
wernmax
10-26-08, 04:51 PM
No. Selling uncovered calls or uncovered puts has the same risk -- unlimited. That's not a "theoretical generalization," that's a fact in the real world. When trading options, it would be wise to clearly understand it.
It's good you know this, but I'm sure you don't have to worry about Danno.
But what should the rest of us do?
Wait for a Dead Cat Bounce, then sell all our stupid loser paper, and run as fast as our little legs will carry us down to our local coin shop.....where we will buy gold and silver coins with both fists?
My way is to keep holding on till it's all gone, swearing and cussing as my losses mount....but that's getting old. :)
Blue Roads
10-26-08, 11:21 PM
But what should the rest of us do? Wait for a Dead Cat Bounce...
Yeah, I know it’s a tough market right now, but everybody’s situation is different and you should seek a professional to have a plan tailor-made for you. Of course, there are no secret investment strategies and you certainly shouldn’t act on investment advice from me or anybody else over the Internet.
Only thing I’ll mention is the obvious. Make sure you completely understand four things:
The education, credentials, and experience of your broker or investment advisor. Learn about the different licenses and credentials that investment professionals can hold.
The mechanics of what you’ll be investing in, be it stocks, bonds, mutual funds, money markets, annuities, or whatever. How do those investments work? What are the risks? What are the underlying companies or entities and what is the financial outlook of each of them?
All commissions, fees, and possible penalties for each investment, including all of the little confusing mutual fund fees. Understand those mutual fund fees so you can recognize an expensive mutual fund. Know exactly how you are being charged.
The fee structure for your broker or investment advisor. What’s their personal cut? What's the firm's cut? The best arrangement is fee-based and no commissions — you’re charged either a flat fee or maybe a percentage of your portfolio.
Don’t commit to anything until you thoroughly understand what you’re getting into, not because you're simply comfortable with the presentation. If after a period of time things aren’t working out for any reason, take your money and go elsewhere.
In my view, part of successful investing includes sleeping well at night. If you’ve got an investment plan full of complex investment products and strategies — where you understand about half of it — and you’re not sleeping well, that’s not a successful plan.
recumelectric
10-27-08, 12:25 AM
It's good you know this, but I'm sure you don't have to worry about Danno.
But what should the rest of us do?
Wait for a Dead Cat Bounce, then sell all our stupid loser paper, and run as fast as our little legs will carry us down to our local coin shop.....where we will buy gold and silver coins with both fists?
My way is to keep holding on till it's all gone, swearing and cussing as my losses mount....but that's getting old. :)
I'm with you on this one. It is painful to watch, but I do believe that things will turn around in the long term. Those who hold on will already have a chunk in the market when it begins to rise again, whereas everyone else will be jumping in at the last minute and driving the prices higher and higher. (Sound familiar?) I am talking long term, as in 10-15 years...but hey, I've got more time than money right now. ;)
Now is the time I'm buying stock. I'm buying for the long haul (retirement fund), so if a stock drops, its not a big deal to me.
One stock I am betting on because *someone* is going to buy that company rather than let it go under is Sprint. They own too much of the airwave bandwidth to just go bankrupt, and that radio wave "real estate" is too valuable for competitors to ignore.
Sprint has a lot of investment in WiMax, a technology which would be an alternative to cable or DSL for Internet use should it get widely deployed. Sprint's iDEN network... well, Nextel's network is another asset they have for quick "peer to peer", or phone to phone talking without having to go across the carrier.
I'm with you on this one. It is painful to watch, but I do believe that things will turn around in the long term.
Unless Karl Marx happens to be correct.
Sprint has a lot of investment in WiMax, a technology which would be an alternative to cable or DSL for Internet use should it get widely deployed. Sprint's iDEN network... well, Nextel's network is another asset they have for quick "peer to peer", or phone to phone talking without having to go across the carrier.
Won't be making much money for a while if they are still working on it. And I just looked at some of their numbers - they seemed to have not done that well in years previous. But then, $3 does seem like a steal.
recumelectric
10-27-08, 03:40 AM
Won't be making much money for a while if they are still working on it. And I just looked at some of their numbers - they seemed to have not done that well in years previous. But then, $3 does seem like a steal.
If you buy 100 shares and it goes under, it's no worse than a trip to Vegas. Just make sure to research the fundamentals of a company. I was getting excited about Wendy-Arby's at $3 a share until I did some research. Although their products are good for fast food, and I hope they never go out of business, there are questions about the management. So it would be a gamble and not a sure thing.
I'm staying diversified with mutual funds becuase I know that some companies within a broad fund will survive and eventually thrive. I just don't want to research each and every one of them.
Won't be making much money for a while if they are still working on it. And I just looked at some of their numbers - they seemed to have not done that well in years previous. But then, $3 does seem like a steal.
except I bought it at 7:notamused:
timmhaan
10-27-08, 01:20 PM
$3 for sprint?
i don't follow this company or the industry. what's going on with them?
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