Living Car Free - Will the bike boom go bust?

I know many cyclists in my community (and especially my LBS...) have been seeing a significant rise in bike usage this last year. But did the drop in fuel prices as well as the recession mean that the boom is over? I think it's hard to say right now, but when Spring arrives we should know. Is the boom a bust?

Like you say, it's a little soon to tell. But I'm seeing more bikes than ever, especially considering we're not yet to the end of one of the coldest winters in years. And I live in an area where the recession is already a depression.

As the economy gets worse there will be more bicycles on the roads. Will the bicycle shops sell plenty of bicycles? They probably will, but I think they will start doing plenty more repairs from people pulling their old bicycles out and getting them into road worthy shape to use for utility cycling.

I hope more people decide to sell their cars and buy bicycles. They can use the money from the car to get a good bicycle and pay off some of their other debts with the remaining money.

Like you say, it's a little soon to tell. But I'm seeing more bikes than ever, especially considering we're not yet to the end of one of the coldest winters in years. And I live in an area where the recession is already a depression.

Same here, and a lot of them look like dedicated commuters.

Attendance down at the shop has been excellent. February weekends, the shop reached near capacity on the weekends without fail. We're going to need to increase stand / tool space at this rate, come spring.

Sales have been fairly good, considering the season. It remains to be seen how this aspect of things will hold.

Light rail on the way home was well over capacity for bikes (6 bikes allowed, 9 actually on the train)

It'll only get MORE crowded as the weather gets nicer.

Light rail on the way home was well over capacity for bikes (6 bikes allowed, 9 actually on the train)

It'll only get MORE crowded as the weather gets nicer.

Yes, a "boom" will bring problems as well as blessings. The bike racks on our buses are already often full. Luckily, I don't use them much.

We're seeing record transit numbers here with the economy. Reported this week as up 20% from the same time last year. So I think we'll still see a bike boom here in Columbus come spring. I know I see, what seems to be, a lot more out.

I'm seeing what many of you all are seeing: even though it's still winter, there are a lot of bikes on the road, and, unlike some other retailers, bike shops seem to be busy. I've even noticed that sometimes I've had trouble finding bike rack space, which had been a problem the last few years in warm weather, but now it has become a year-round challenge. Not that I mind too much; it's still way easier to lock up a bike than it ever was to find a parking space, and it's nice to now have enough bike traffic that motorists accept us as a normal part of the landscape (even if many of them still aren't very happy about it).

I don't think in terms of a "boom" or a "bust." I am quite concern mpre about the hows and most importantly the whys of reasoning that the participating people electing to even consider riding a bike is thinking of. Yes I am seeing a big boom in ridership everywhere I go in Southern California. But are they being forced to using a bike vs. simply deciding to adopt a more sane lifestyle? That is the real underlying question we all should be asking ourselves.

In my parts there have been more bikes on the road consistently since the oil shock. I see more 18-25 yr old types riding around now. Plain clothes/ basic bike -no gear. That's a definite change I have noticed. I don't notice it too much on the main thoroughfares but in the areas where residential and commercial developments are closer together bikes seem more common.
Gas is going up again and people are in (1) saving mode or (2) pay down debt mode or (3) don't get in debt mode -so I think this may contribute to an increase in bike usage, albeit minor, throughout the year.

But are they being forced to using a bike vs. simply deciding to adopt a more sane lifestyle? That is the real underlying question we all should be asking ourselves.

Maybe they're being forced to adopt a more sane lifestyle. Maybe some people will realize that life is better when you HAVE less but DO more.

Don't be offended by this, but in economic terms, bikes and transit are, for most consumers, inferior products. If they could comfortably afford it, most would opt for the Lambo or private helicopter.
As cost rises for superior alternatives, and disposable income drops, the bike shops can likely be optimistic. (provided not everyone swarms to WalMart and BikesDeject)

Don't be offended by this, but in economic terms, bikes and transit are, for most consumers, inferior products. If they could comfortably afford it, most would opt for the Lambo or private helicopter.
As cost rises for superior alternatives, and disposable income drops, the bike shops can likely be optimistic. (provided not everyone swarms to WalMart and BikesDeject)


You're probably right, unfortunately.

On the other hand, I think there is a little hump you get over when using the bike or transit that really makes it click and easier to consider. Our transit numbers stayed pretty high, despite gas prices dropping. I think once people get the first taste, it's easier to continue. With that Lambo in the garage for the weekend joy rides, of course. :)

I have seen commuter numbers stay up even though gas has gone way down and it is a cold place here.

I've seen less bikers here. When gas went really high, toward the end I started to see a tiny increase in riders. It was minute but it was there. Now I see almost none, and motorists seem more hostile than ever. Yesterday I was loading groceries in my panniers at the store, and this guy walks past me and stares at me with a look of utter disgust, as if he were thinking "You are what's wrong with this country." Of course, I have no idea if that's what he was thinking; perhaps that's just his natural facial expression. :twitchy:

I have seen commuter numbers stay up even though gas has gone way down and it is a cold place here.

It was 8 degrees F during morning rush today, but there were people riding bikes to work nonetheless. In this community (Traverse City), most commuters are middle to upper middle class. In Lansing, poorer people seem to predominate on the AM bike commute.

I see a few other cyclists almost every day on my ride, unfortunately I don't have a lot of past data to compare it with but even if those cyclists were out last year at least they are seeing one more person everyday...

I've seen less bikers here. When gas went really high, toward the end I started to see a tiny increase in riders. It was minute but it was there. Now I see almost none, and motorists seem more hostile than ever. Yesterday I was loading groceries in my panniers at the store, and this guy walks past me and stares at me with a look of utter disgust, as if he were thinking "You are what's wrong with this country." Of course, I have no idea if that's what he was thinking; perhaps that's just his natural facial expression. :twitchy:


I'm seeing what many of you all are seeing: even though it's still winter, there are a lot of bikes on the road, and, unlike some other retailers, bike shops seem to be busy. I've even noticed that sometimes I've had trouble finding bike rack space, which had been a problem the last few years in warm weather, but now it has become a year-round challenge. Not that I mind too much; it's still way easier to lock up a bike than it ever was to find a parking space, and it's nice to now have enough bike traffic that motorists accept us as a normal part of the landscape (even if many of them still aren't very happy about it).

Two interesting comparisons. I'm guessing it will be very different depending on where you live. I'm not seeing many commuters on the streets yet, but it was a very cold winter.

However, when we get a warm day, they appear. Many of them are commuters. However, that's the way it usually is here: a big buildup until July, then it starts to taper off. I think last year was a little unusual. Numbers were up, but no idea if it will stick this year.

Is the boom a bust?

All booms go bust. All bubbles burst. Have you not learned anything in the past several years? It's all but a question of time.

That said, I think last year's bike boom still has legs. Several non-cyclists and occasional cyclists I know either have or are preparing to buy new bikes. Then again, here in R-Town, we're always a bit behind the times, so perhaps it's fizzled elsewhere already.

All booms go bust. All bubbles burst. Have you not learned anything in the past several years? It's all but a question of time.


That's very true, but I'm not sure this boom is a bubble.

From what I've seen, it's been a slow but steady increase in riders. The new riders don't seem to be the hipsters or trendy people, at least not here in Michigan. (Who can afford to be trendy in Michigan now?) The new riders seem to be working class people and young professionals. The ones I've talked to don't seem to think of themselves as "cyclists"--just people getting places on bikes.

That's very true, but I'm not sure this boom is a bubble.

From what I've seen, it's been a slow but steady increase in riders. The new riders don't seem to be the hipsters or trendy people, at least not here in Michigan. (Who can afford to be trendy in Michigan now?) The new riders seem to be working class people and young professionals. The ones I've talked to don't seem to think of themselves as "cyclists"--just people getting places on bikes.

I haven't seen much of either around where I live, but I live in an area like Lamplight where anybody on a bicycle is considered a loser or a freak. I have seen a marked increase in the number of moped/scooters around, which would make sense considering how far we are from most things. IMHO many people are inherently lazy and are going to take (what appears to them) the easiest way out first.

Aaron:)

Light rail on the way home was well over capacity for bikes (6 bikes allowed, 9 actually on the train)

It'll only get MORE crowded as the weather gets nicer.

There has been such a huge increase in the numbers of cyclists using the local trains over here that the railway company has put up signs saying that they will no longer tolerate bikes during rush hours. So far, they haven't been able to enforce that rule because cyclists have simply refused to obey it.

However, when we get a warm day, they appear. Many of them are commuters. However, that's the way it usually is here: a big buildup until July, then it starts to taper off. I think last year was a little unusual. Numbers were up, but no idea if it will stick this year.

I will see many more cyclists when the weather gets warmer, but I doubt any will be commuters. And of course they'll all be on the MUP, because it's not safe to ride on the streets. :innocent:


I haven't seen much of either around where I live, but I live in an area like Lamplight where anybody on a bicycle is considered a loser or a freak. I have seen a marked increase in the number of moped/scooters around, which would make sense considering how far we are from most things. IMHO many people are inherently lazy and are going to take (what appears to them) the easiest way out first.

Aaron:)
When gas got really expensive earlier last year, I did see quite a few scooters and mopeds, but I saw a LOT more motorcycles. Guys on sportbikes wearing backpacks, which tells me they were probably actually going somewhere instead of just out riding around. I also suspected this because they weren't constantly popping wheelies, which is what they normally do. :p

When gas got really expensive earlier last year, I did see quite a few scooters and mopeds, but I saw a LOT more motorcycles.

I noted the same thing. Increase in bicycle commuting--heck, I was part of that--but a lot more motorcycles on the road. My guess is that all the guys you see riding single in a big truck with a harley sticker on the back figured that since they already have a high-milage vehicle, they might as well be riding it. You could tell the noobs, too, by their gear, or lack of it, when conditions were not optimal.

It was still great to see more people out on two wheels.