Living Car Free - The true cost of a journey.

It's rare that I read more than two or three posts in a general thread like this before deciding that it's not worth it to continue. Thanks for starting this one, HoustonB, I've enjoyed it ....

Your welcome. Agreed on all points. I would love a portable reasonably priced universal water filter! So would everybody threatened by diseases like Cholera.

I like Kunstler, I think he is largely correct, even if his timing has not hit the nail squarely on the head. I have one of his one hour radio talks in an MP3 file on my computer (Commonwealth Club of California, talking about his book The Long Emergency and also the impact of Peak Oil on suburban sprawl). Talking of Peak Oil, TheOilDrum.com (http://www.theoildrum.com/) is one of my favorite web sites.

Your answers about costs of bringing to market the ersatz Segway, such as they are, both ignoring the costs of manufacturing and marketing the item to include labor, distribution, tooling, utilities, building rent and maintenance, advertising,and profit, as well as fantasizing/speculating about the future savings in weight and parts costs to be delivered by developments from material scientists and bulk purchases of the magic ingredients of the MIT home brew - indicate exactly how much you know what you are talking about. Better stick to computer software.

Here is the principal difference between our arguments: You attempt to belittle mine by constant references to "fantasies" or "alleged" information and "magic ingredients". Whilst I post actual links to real information by highly respected people at MIT (http://web.mit.edu/), you post only opinions. I call it case closed.

The Pyramids destroyed the finances of the kings that built them. ................

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What specifically do you think will change to cause a new direction on how a new infrastructure is financed? Because after the Pyramids were finished that society collapsed because they had no finances to defend themselves.

The pyramids were built from something like 2600Bc through 1800 BC or so over a period of 800 years. And didn't the last native Pharaoh rule until the Persians invaded around 340 BC? So the pharonic culture must have lasted longer after the pyramid building. It is possible that bike transportation will last longer than car transportation. The pyramids seem wasteful but the culture seems to have outlasted this waste. Maybe cars will be seen as our pyramids if our culture lasts as long as the egyptian culture did.

Here is the principal difference between our arguments: You attempt to belittle mine by constant references to "fantasies" or "alleged" information and "magic ingredients". Whilst I post actual links to real information by highly respected people at MIT (http://web.mit.edu/), you post only opinions. I call it case closed.

You can call a nonsensical argument/case for the production/marketing of the $1000 ersatz lightweight Segway anything you want, it doesn't make production any closer to ever being a reality, or finding any market for it no matter what the price. Not only have motorists ignored the Segway that has so little practical use, or advantage over their normal means of travel, but I can't imagine any bicyclists trading in their wheels for it either since it also provides them so little practical use or advantage over their normal means of travel.

The pyramids were built from something like 2600Bc through 1800 BC or so over a period of 800 years. And didn't the last native Pharaoh rule until the Persians invaded around 340 BC? So the pharonic culture must have lasted longer after the pyramid building. It is possible that bike transportation will last longer than car transportation. The pyramids seem wasteful but the culture seems to have outlasted this waste. Maybe cars will be seen as our pyramids if our culture lasts as long as the egyptian culture did.

If I had to bet on where we as a society will go I would have to bet they will come up with something that will transport people from point A to point B quicker than a bicycle. It will also require less effort. even if it is an electric bike. We live in a society that can't get up to change a TV channel. We even have a whole new brand of sports medicine to deal with WII injuries. I think I posted somewhere the average American walks less than two miles unless it is job or shopping related.

But yes it is possible cycling will out last ICE. And it is possible I guess for horses to make a comeback. But I think the chances are slim because the masses aren't ready to fund an alternative. :eek:

I don't see planes, trains, trucks and Busses going away in my lifetime. I would love to see an alternative mass transit system go into effect before I die. But I am simply not holding my breath. ;)

Do I think we would be better off if we were a bit more like Holland or Denmark? Maybe we would. Do I see a move in that direction? No, and I believe we would have to collapse as a country before that will happen. And while I can enjoy the simple things of cycle riding and walking I don't think that is the future of a first world nation. We don't have a Pharaoh to force society to build the infrastructure. Not that it wouldn't be a good idea.

Do I think we would be better off if we were a bit more like Holland or Denmark? Maybe we would. Do I see a move in that direction? No, and I believe we would have to collapse as a country before that will happen.

But we've moved in that direction here in DC already. When I began experimenting with bike transportation in the mid '90s here there were no bike lanes and few transportational cyclists. Now the lanes are sprouting up, we have a bike coordinator, people are biking to work more. I see it all around. The close suburb Arlington has really made an effort to improve non-car transportation. Philly and New York have made big moves in the direction of Holland and Denmark too. I was just reading where New York wants to make Times Square car free. I don't think its going to stop here. Last night the traffic was noticeably backed up downtown. As I was biking toward the Potomac some guy on a road bike was remarking about how he's glad he's not stuck in traffic. He said he's trying to sell his car and go car free. "I only live in Alexandria [10 miles from work], what do I need a car for? After I started biking I never used the car." Turns out the traffic was all backed up because two nice BMW cars were stopped on the bridge. If two nice road bikes had mechanical breakdowns it wouldn't hold up traffic for miles. Hundreds of people stuck in traffic saw us cruising by free as birds. I'm pretty sure some of them thought "Wow, I wish I had biked to work today." Anyway, Robert Foster you seem negative about things in your recent posts. Maybe things aren't moving along where you live but here in DC car-free life keeps improving.

Anyway, Robert Foster you seem negative about things in your recent posts. Maybe things aren't moving along where you live but here in DC car-free life keeps improving.

Not negitive only I have seen this all before. I tend to not join parades just because the band is playing. 40 million private cars in China in 2007 tells me society is changing but not in the direction many predicted. India building their own automotive factories. The infrastructure our new President wants to build includes highway improvement and bridge construction. There are a lot more people today than there were in 1973 but the record high in Adult Bicycle sales was in that year. ( sourse NBDA Report)
15.2 million verses 12.8 in 2007. So if we have started in that direction it is only a turn of the head.

I am simply not emotional about it. People prefer easy effortless. That is their nature. Do I ever think we will see people willingly fund the infrastructure it would take to make us like Denmark? Nope. Will some like the people in these forums be willing to do so, sure, even I would. But we live in a country that is too big for bicycles to surplant rapid transportation. Mass transit could address this true. But that isn't where this administration is heading.

Just saying historically and statistically I have to bet they will go in another direction. That is with my head not my heart.

If I had to bet on where we as a society will go I would have to bet they will come up with something that will transport people from point A to point B quicker than a bicycle. It will also require less effort. even if it is an electric bike. We live in a society that can't get up to change a TV channel. We even have a whole new brand of sports medicine to deal with WII injuries. I think I posted somewhere the average American walks less than two miles unless it is job or shopping related.

But yes it is possible cycling will out last ICE. And it is possible I guess for horses to make a comeback. But I think the chances are slim because the masses aren't ready to fund an alternative. :eek:

I don't see planes, trains, trucks and Busses going away in my lifetime. I would love to see an alternative mass transit system go into effect before I die. But I am simply not holding my breath. ;)

Do I think we would be better off if we were a bit more like Holland or Denmark? Maybe we would. Do I see a move in that direction? No, and I believe we would have to collapse as a country before that will happen. And while I can enjoy the simple things of cycle riding and walking I don't think that is the future of a first world nation. We don't have a Pharaoh to force society to build the infrastructure. Not that it wouldn't be a good idea.

The only problem with your visions is that they totally ignore reality. You honestly seem to believe that American humanity can maintain the status quo in spite of global warming, the rise of new superpowers, the looming scarcity of oil, and the certainty that human population will rise to 9 or 10 billion by the end of this century. You actually believe that a power delivery system will arise to replace ICE sometime in the near future, although there are no indications that this is the case.

I agree that new technology will arise, but no technology is possible that will permit us to continue living as we live today. We must adapt and learn new ways of living on this planet, or all the arguments about cars and bikes will son look moot and silly.

Not negitive only I have seen this all before. I tend to not join parades just because the band is playing. 40 million private cars in China in 2007 tells me society is changing but not in the direction many predicted. India building their own automotive factories. The infrastructure our new President wants to build includes highway improvement and bridge construction. There are a lot more people today than there were in 1973 but the record high in Adult Bicycle sales was in that year. ( sourse NBDA Report)
15.2 million verses 12.8 in 2007. So if we have started in that direction it is only a turn of the head.

I am simply not emotional about it. People prefer easy effortless. That is their nature. Do I ever think we will see people willingly fund the infrastructure it would take to make us like Denmark? Nope. Will some like the people in these forums be willing to do so, sure, even I would. But we live in a country that is too big for bicycles to surplant rapid transportation. Mass transit could address this true. But that isn't where this administration is heading.

Just saying historically and statistically I have to bet they will go in another direction. That is with my head not my heart.

How convenient and easy will it be to move up to 600 million people away from the coastlines when sea levels rise one meter by 2100?

How convenient and easy will it be to move up to 600 million people away from the coastlines when sea levels rise one meter by 2100?

I hope you know I am not the enemy here. I just don't see actions following most cyclists desired directions.

This may sound a bit cold but historically we have had several events that have thinned the human populartion. Disease, famine, war and now maybe raising water. Can we support any society by reverting to a lifestyle of walking and cycling? Not likely. Will we slide into a pre jet age society? I doubt it. I am only looking at it from a historical perspective. When have we ever reverted to a non technical solution?

What I am saying is we live in a world that will not give up non human powered transportation without a fight. whatever solution the future brings I can't imagine it turning back to something even remotly like the pre automotive age.

Lets be honest with ourselves. How can we support 9 billion people in ever larger cities? Centralizing housing means craming a population into a smaller space than what humans typically do well in. If you had a way to get people to abandon their desire for personal space and privacy you have a chance of developing a society that might live in monster cities with everything reachable by walking or using a HPV. But I believe there is little chance of that happening even if the water rises. It would be more likely that the stronger soceties will force out the weaker ones and take the resourses they want. It has been that way for thousands of years and it isn't likely to change now.:o

Do I think this is the best way for the human race to act? Not for a minute but I see no indication by the masses to change the nature we have seen from Ancient Rome to modern Washington DC. ;)

Will give you this. If indeed a major natural disaster does strike from an asteroid to a major flood people may wake up and rethink where we are headed and what is best for the human race. But when I read about the proposed solutions of our administration even now I see little or no interest in a directional change.:innocent:

It must be remembered I am a natural born Skeptic and I see statistics pointing in a direction of ever increasing use of technology. I haven't seen thins desire of the majority of people to change.

This may sound a bit cold but historically we have had several events that have thinned the human populartion. Disease, famine, war and now maybe raising water. Can we support any society by reverting to a lifestyle of walking and cycling? Not likely. Will we slide into a pre jet age society? I doubt it. I am only looking at it from a historical perspective. When have we ever reverted to a non technical solution?
.

Many cities in Ancient Rome had running water & sewerage systems, had a basic knowlege of mathematics, and building methods (the arch) which are still in use today, 2500 years later. After the fall of Rome ca. 480 Europe fell into the Dark Ages. No water, baths, knowlege of agriculture, astronomy, etc etc... for over 1,000 years.

And that's just ONE "dark age" over the course of Human History. Don't think that it can't happen again, because it will. If you know your history, you should know that history repeats itself......

Many cities in Ancient Rome had running water & sewerage systems, had a basic knowlege of mathematics, and building methods (the arch) which are still in use today, 2500 years later. After the fall of Rome ca. 480 Europe fell into the Dark Ages. No water, baths, knowlege of agriculture, astronomy, etc etc... for over 1,000 years.

And that's just ONE "dark age" over the course of Human History. Don't think that it can't happen again, because it will. If you know your history, you should know that history repeats itself......

Maybe in a small area. But what was happening in China, and the Middle east, during the same time frame? There were many advancements in Astronomy, running water and baths and they didn't have ready contact with the rest of the world. Yes sections of the world can collapse but are you saying the US is ready to enter the new dark ages? Did we slip into the dark ages and reject all movement towards technology in 1929?

And the saying is, thoses who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. :thumb:

If you are saying you think the new president is going to fail and the country is going to collapse and we are heading for a new dark age, I have absolutly no response. :o

Let me be clear that I would love to see more of our cities like Davis or Denver or Portland. I would like to see us give up some of our need for instant gradifacation. I prefer to cook rather than microwave. I would rather ride my bike than drive my car. I started cycling during the big bike boom of the early 70s and even back then had a trailer for hauling my son around town and to do shopping. I even commuted for a while until the commute got too far and one promotion after another moved me farther and farther from home. Still I resisted driving my car and rode a Motorcycle for 8 years every day. The car was reserved for my wife and child.

But I have watched over the last few years as School districts remove bike racks as have many shopping malls.

I have listen to and voted for administrations that have promised and yet not delivered alternative transportation funding. I have seen families go from one car to two cars and in some cases 4 cars with three drivers. I just believe if we hope to see any real change it will only be over the kicking and screaming of our elected officials.

But what was happening in China, and the Middle east, during the same time frame? There were many advancements in Astronomy, running water and baths and they didn't have ready contact with the rest of the world.

Yes, although Arab & Islamic societies kept the knowlege of ancient Greek & Roman mathematics & philosophy alive, what happend to the Roman infrastructure (ie; the baths) during that time in North Africa, Syria, & Anatolia? Were they maintained or did they fall into disuse & disrepair? Also, don't forget in the Mid-East the Eastern Roman Empire still hung on until Byzantine came along a few centuries later.... I'ts been quite a few years since my Roman History classes, but I remember technology in general did not advance after ca. 450 or so....

I don't know much of Chinese history.....can you elaborate?


[/QUOTE]
Yes sections of the world can collapse but are you saying the US is ready to enter the new dark ages? Did we slip into the dark ages and reject all movement towards technology in 1929? [/QUOTE]

Maybe not ready right now, but who knows what could happen in 20, 50, 100, or 500 years.


[/QUOTE]
If you are saying you think the new president is going to fail and the country is going to collapse and we are heading for a new dark age, I have absolutly no response. :o[/QUOTE]


I didn't say one inkling of politics; you'll have to clarify what you mean by "failure" ---has any president "failed" yet??? I'll leave my personal opinions of Mr Obama in P&R, but spending trillions of dollars on "stimulus" after "bailout" after "stimulus" in the long run, will end up destroying this country from debt payments to other countries, to our dependence on other countries for our energy supplies, to supplying us with ready-made goods. Of course, to quote a famous economist, "in the long run, we're all dead"

But I have watched over the last few years as School districts remove bike racks as have many shopping malls.

Are you sure? Even the suburban malls around here are putting up more bike racks. Not many people are using them. Just yesterday I stopped by a suburban post office. As I pedaled up to it I was looking at trees for potential lockup points but there it was, a bike rack right by the door. Over the years I've been conditioned to have this negative view of bike usage in the suburbs but lately I see more and more bike racks. They're easy for the zoneing and building permit people to insist on. Of course the adjacent arterial roads and non-existant or poor bike lanes mean that it is difficult to get your bike to the rack without hauling it in your SUV. Still the bike racks seem to be part of most large new construction in this area. At first the bike racks were poorly located but the locations are creeping closer to useful. Some places actually have the bike rack under cover in a convenient location.

Are you sure? Even the suburban malls around here are putting up more bike racks. Not many people are using them. Just yesterday I stopped by a suburban post office. As I pedaled up to it I was looking at trees for potential lockup points but there it was, a bike rack right by the door. Over the years I've been conditioned to have this negative view of bike usage in the suburbs but lately I see more and more bike racks. They're easy for the zoneing and building permit people to insist on. Of course the adjacent arterial roads and non-existant or poor bike lanes mean that it is difficult to get your bike to the rack without hauling it in your SUV. Still the bike racks seem to be part of most large new construction in this area. At first the bike racks were poorly located but the locations are creeping closer to useful. Some places actually have the bike rack under cover in a convenient location.

May depend on the area. FWIW in Chapel Hill, NC (college town) any time a business is renovated or a new building built it has to provide a certain number of bike parking spaces, including lockers. The number is minuscule in comparison to the number of car spaces they have to provide. Sixty miles down the road where I live there are no zoning requirements to benefit cyclists, in fact it seems they are going out of their way to make it more difficult, but cutting off and dead ending smaller roads with 4-6+ lane roads and limited access roads. Several years ago there was some discussion about installing a 2 lane bridge from one commercial area to the mall area, for what ever reason it never occured. Now the only way into the mall is on multi-lane roads. And when you get to the mall there are only a couple of wheel bender bike racks that are not in what I would consider a safe parking location, they are hidden out of the way and not in view of security cameras, even though most if not all of the 80+ acres of parking lot are.

Aaron:)

May depend on the area. FWIW in Chapel Hill, NC (college town) any time a business is renovated or a new building built it has to provide a certain number of bike parking spaces, including lockers. The number is minuscule in comparison to the number of car spaces they have to provide. Sixty miles down the road where I live there are no zoning requirements to benefit cyclists, in fact it seems they are going out of their way to make it more difficult, but cutting off and dead ending smaller roads with 4-6+ lane roads and limited access roads. Several years ago there was some discussion about installing a 2 lane bridge from one commercial area to the mall area, for what ever reason it never occured. Now the only way into the mall is on multi-lane roads. And when you get to the mall there are only a couple of wheel bender bike racks that are not in what I would consider a safe parking location, they are hidden out of the way and not in view of security cameras, even though most if not all of the 80+ acres of parking lot are.

Aaron:)

I guess you are right. My cousin is a cyclist Living in RedWood city, Ca. She told me her city council has approved removing a bike lane to widen a turn lane near one of the schools close to her. :(

The School District where we used ot live removed all student lockers years ago and many have removed bike racks. Seems it is up to the Principal to decide if they will allow bikes at their school. But it happens in places other than California I guess. http://www.carectomy.com/index.php/Bikes/School-Principal-Refuses-Bike-Rack-Students-Protest

Yes, although Arab & Islamic societies kept the knowlege of ancient Greek & Roman mathematics & philosophy alive, what happend to the Roman infrastructure (ie; the baths) during that time in North Africa, Syria, & Anatolia? Were they maintained or did they fall into disuse & disrepair? Also, don't forget in the Mid-East the Eastern Roman Empire still hung on until Byzantine came along a few centuries later.... I'ts been quite a few years since my Roman History classes, but I remember technology in general did not advance after ca. 450 or so....

I don't know much of Chinese history.....can you elaborate?



Yes sections of the world can collapse but are you saying the US is ready to enter the new dark ages? Did we slip into the dark ages and reject all movement towards technology in 1929? [/QUOTE]

Maybe not ready right now, but who knows what could happen in 20, 50, 100, or 500 years.


[/QUOTE]
If you are saying you think the new president is going to fail and the country is going to collapse and we are heading for a new dark age, I have absolutly no response. :o[/QUOTE]


I didn't say one inkling of politics; you'll have to clarify what you mean by "failure" ---has any president "failed" yet??? I'll leave my personal opinions of Mr Obama in P&R, but spending trillions of dollars on "stimulus" after "bailout" after "stimulus" in the long run, will end up destroying this country from debt payments to other countries, to our dependence on other countries for our energy supplies, to supplying us with ready-made goods. Of course, to quote a famous economist, "in the long run, we're all dead"[/QUOTE]

I said nothing about the president personally nor was I making a poilitcal statement. I was saying that if the policies of the new president ,or if you prefer the new administration, are successful than things will level off and as is most often the case people will go back to being who they always were. Users of technology that make thier life easier. The long term effects are left to the future to dertermine. But what I am saying is the odds are we are not ready to collapse as a society just yet. If the policies are not successful

That is what I was saying all along. If I was forced to make a prediction, nothing I personally care to do, then I would say it is more likely that society would embrace another form of powered transportation rather than return to HPV or walking. It is simply my opinion not necessarly my desire.

DPZ's new urbanism is more hype than reality. I live near 3 of the "new urbanism" projects. Most infamaous is Seaside. None of these places are real, all particulary Seaside, are tourist traps for the wealthy. These people drive in in Suv's. The biggest traffic jam along our Scenic Highway is at Seaside. Rosemary Beach installed traffic lights because traffic was so bad. We have a bike path along Scenic 30A but most people use it for recreation not needed travel.
One thing is that some of these tourist that rent a bike may go home and buy one and at least bike some of the time.
Remember don't believe everything you read.