Texas - Wind prediction for the MS-150

last year's Houston to Austin MS-150 was a bit windy. Anyone want to venture a guess on what it's going to be like this year??????????

Weather.com says isolated storms with wind SSE 12mph. I will take a little shower if the wind will stay at our backs...

Guess about weather in Texas, yeah right...

I would love anything 10mph and under. My last 2 long weekend rides have been 20+mph and 10+mph respectively. I've had enough wind for a while.

I'm hoping for dry and tail wind.....Warm would be nice as well, last year was too cold...

Yesterday at the Katy Ram Challenge winds were pretty stiff from the east - northeast and it actually got cooler once the sun came up. Kinda sucked that the last leg of the ride was almost all headed east out of Pattison, and then there was the ride home.

For my prediction I'll use the reverse jinx method by stating I hope it will be (so in reality it won't be) 27 mph winds out of the north west at 32 degrees at Tully Stadium, once you get out into the sticks good and proper super cell conditions with tornados and softball sized hail stones. When you get near Austin there will be consistant bursts of hot headwinds (that's a political joke).

Don't worry about things you can't control. Get out there and put one foot in front of the other and soon enough you will reach the end.

Don't worry about things you can't control. Get out there and put one foot in front of the other and soon enough you will reach the end.

Agreed.

Checking weather.com every 10 minutes isn't going to change a thing and it's called a forecast for a reason.

Perfect example was yesterday. 80% chance of thunderstorms all day. While there was a pretty heavy down pour, it only lasted about 30 minutes and was absolutely beautiful for the rest of the day.

Last forecast I saw was SE at 10 on Saturday woth a 40% chance of rain and ESE at 9 on Sunday with a 30% chance. I agree with whoever said they don't mind being wet as long as the wind stays at their back. With the 10-15 mph NE wind on Saturday, I was averaging about 23 mph for the eastbound downwind legs. I could handle those conditions all the way to LaGrange...

Not to change the subject but any thoughts on a decent rain jacket, just in case?

Not to change the subject but any thoughts on a decent rain jacket, just in case?

I purchased an emergency poncho at Academy for +/- $1.

I hate panchos. I'm using a light windjacket and warmers.

I have a light Pearl Izumi jacket with sleeves that zip off. It is probably not totally waterproof, but should keep me at least somewhat dry in light to moderate rain. If it starts dumping, no jacket is going to keep me totally dry anyways and I will just deal with it.

Checking weather.com every 10 minutes isn't going to change a thing and it's called a forecast for a reason.

+1

I have enough experience with extended forecasts on my bike rides to know it is only reasonably accurate about 24-48 hours out. Until then the forecast will change every day. But, that still doesn't stop me from checking the MS150 forecast almost every day. :o For the MS, I've seen it jump from 60% chance of rain to 0% chance to 60% and today is 40%. Winds have remained consistent out the East/Southeast, which, if it holds, is sounding pretty sweet.

Also note that reported wind speeds are normally the sustained speeds, with gusts about 8mph higher.

By Thursday evening/Friday we'll have a better idea of what things will really be like.

Another hijack...

Is there an elevation profile available for the ride? I have downloaded all the maps I can find, but haven't seen an elevation. Am I missing it somewhere?

Praying for a tailwind...

here is day one if you start from Katy
http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/657688606285 (http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/657688606285)
and the challenge route for day two
http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/514836171 (http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/514836171)

and the challenge route for day two
http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/514836171 (http://www.mapmyride.com/ride/united-states/tx/katy/514836171)

If you look closely at the map you'll notice it does not go through the parks but is the option to bypass the parks on Hwy 71.

did I miss something? Where was the elevation profile in those maps?

did I miss something? Where was the elevation profile in those maps?

Look on the top right of the map and click "show elevations".

The current forecast predicts 3-4" of rain on Saturday.

Anybody got a couple of pontoons and an outboard? We can mount a bike rack with a couple of trainers on it between the pontoons and pretend we are pedaling to Austin while the outboard does the work...

Also looks like a nice tailwind to LaGrange and then a pretty tough headwind on day 2.

Whatever the weather does, it oughta be fun. This'll be my first time to do this ride on a road bike. I've done it twice on my mountain bike, and last year on knobbies because I couldn't find my slicks.. If there's a headwind on day 2, it'll make the park section that much more enjoyable. It was my favorite part last year becuase it took us out of the wind for a little while. :)

kind of off-topic, but any of you coming back to Houston on the buses?

Do you buy the ticket once you get to Austin? any way to buy it online?

tzarbomba (http://www.bikeforums.net/member.php?u=156776), You've probably already found this, but just in case it helps, from the website: http://www.nationalmssociety.org/chapters/bp-ms-150/about-the-ride/Austin/PassengerBusBikeTransportation/index.aspx

Sunday, April 19
Austin to Houston
Passenger Buses & Bike Transportation
$35 Fee Required (cash or check)
Departures begin around noon Sunday, April 19.
Continuous passenger buses depart from the Austin Finish Line to Houston’s Tully Stadium and Rhodes Stadium in Katy. BIKES are transported to TULLY STADIUM ONLY.

BIKES are transported to TULLY STADIUM ONLY.

As a side note, if you're starting at Rhodes (like myself), take the return bus to Rhodes and then drive over to Tully and pick up your bike.

Oi Vay.... Could we get any worse weather? I'm in Austin and it is pouring

Oi Vay.... Could we get any worse weather? I'm in Austin and it is pouring

Push that crap NORTH, would ya? Just don't send it EAST!

No wetstuff here in Houston yet, but I got my bike all ready this morning:

• lubed it real good
• covered my bike rider numbers in clear packing tape (a homemade lamination job)
• I know my Garmin 305 should be water resistant, but I read a tip to cover the bike computer in Saran Wrap
• stripped my bike down to my smallest seat bag with only 1 tube, 1 CO2, and tire levers

BTW - on the Houston TV news last night all the weathermen were talking about the wet weekend and the MS150. All of them pretty much said the same thing ... we have a good chance of storms Friday afternoon and overnight across SE Texas, but things should settle down by the morning and then start to rebuild late morning, early afternoon. That's some good motivation to get to La Grange as fast as you can.

Just checked weather.com and Houston is under a Tornado watch until 5pm.

Might want to rethink only taking the one tube and one CO2. My one experience driving support for a group riding an MS150 in the rain was that they all got a TON of flats. Not sure exactly what it is about rain, but it always seems to cause more flats.

this is my first MS150. any ideas of which starting locations will be most full? i'm assuming Waller will be the least amount of people because of the later start. what about rhodes and tully? ideas?

I read somewhere that 6,000 start at Tully

Anybody got a couple of pontoons and an outboard? We can mount a bike rack with a couple of trainers on it between the pontoons and pretend we are pedaling to Austin while the outboard does the work...Well, if it's really that rainy, here's an option ...

http://austin.craigslist.org/bik/1121943601.html

Well, if it's really that rainy, here's an option ...

http://austin.craigslist.org/bik/1121943601.html

:roflmao2:

I can see someone set up with a roadside stand tomorrow selling those things...

I can't see that link due to big brother here at work, but according to the "storm total" on the radar (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no) (click on the "storm total" link at the left) the area just north of Columbus has gotten 6-9 inches of rain already and more is on the way. I am thinking I may need to ride wearing a PFD.

I am just gonna go and get wet. I will pack plastic bags for my cell phone and whatnot but other than that I'm not changing anything.

I'm going to get soaked, I'm sure.

The way I see it.. as long as this ride is, you're gonna get soaked no matter what. And then it'll stop raining, and you'll get dry and hot. The only thing I'm worried about with the rain is people falling or hitting me. A century is too much of an ordeal to try and do with a $1 plastic sauna poncho on, and it's probably going to rain too hard/be too many puddles for shoe covers or light rain jackets.

Bike shorts and jerseys are always so tight I feel like it's a wetsuit anyway. And it dries fast.

As for my prediction, I say a wet day tomorrow, some rain, a little craziness. Otherwise it won't be bad. Wind at our backs is a huge bonus and the rain will break up the tedium of a century. I'm gonna travel light and just trust on the air to dry me off, and hope it isn't too cold all day. I can't think of a rain solution that won't kill me when it is 75 degrees and NOT raining and I'm on mile 60-100.

Sunday will be the headwinds-in-the-face, sunny-and-bright-as-hell springtime Texas that I've been training in. It's hilly and 80 miles and will be fun, at least. The wind will be bad but not terrible, probably later in the day there will be a 15 mph headwind max. At least you can still move at 14-16 mph in that, not like the insane 25+ mph stuff I've seen over the past six months.

In short.. pedal. It'll be easy =)

Good luck ladies and gents. Regardless what the weather throws y'alls way I'm sure everyone will press on for the cause.

anyone seen this?

MS150 Urgent Notice - Day 1 Has Been Cancelled
Apr 17th, 2009
by Scott Blair.
2 comments

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URGENT NOTICE:
DAY 1 has officially been cancelled due to the adverse weather. LaGrange is flooded, tents have collapsed and its unsafe for riders. We are awaiting an update from the MS Society regarding DAY 2.

Please take into consideration that Day 2 could start from LaGrange or Katy… Alternative routes could come into play as well. The MS Society is working on making a decision now and we will pass that information on to you as soon as possible.

Be sure to text the word ‘RIDER’ to 777111 for updates from the MS Society, or check the MS150 website.

We will be in touch with further details soon.

http://blog.sunandski.com/

It's official

Due to unsafe conditions along the Day One route and in La Grange, we have decided to cancel the first day of the BP MS 150, Saturday, April 18, 2009. At this time we intend to ride as scheduled on Day 2, Sunday, April 19, from La Grange to Austin. We are currently assessing the logistics and route conditions from La Grange to Austin and will continue to update you as those details become available.

****ing. Great.

At least we raised funds for a great cause.

Now the question is: If we ARE to ride from LaGrange to Austin....do we drive to lagrange and then park our hoopties (mine at least) and then ride from there out? It's like a training ride all over again! Wee!

This is now a mess with cancellation, I was ready to ride no matter what, this really messes up our logistics!!!

No kidding. The team I'm riding with is based in Austin. At the moment they're en-route to Houston (about 30 mins. away), and now they are probably going to have to turn back to Austin empty-handed and give up riding the MS 150. They have an 18-wheeler full of about 100 bikes, but they can only rent it for today. So that rules out staying overnight in Houston and then hauling the bikes to La Grange tomorrow night (assuming they are still doing Day 2 as scheduled).

They could turn back now and head to La Grange, but where would they stay (the campgrounds are flooded too)? They also have about 100 hotel reservations in Houston tonight that need to be cancelled (hopefully they will get refunds on them).

At least we raised funds for a great cause.

Now the question is: If we ARE to ride from LaGrange to Austin....do we drive to lagrange and then park our hoopties (mine at least) and then ride from there out? It's like a training ride all over again! Wee!

I'm okay with the funds raised. I;m all about raising money for a good cause. It's the registration and team fees that bug me.

I'm okay with the funds raised. I;m all about raising money for a good cause. It's the registration and team fees that bug me.

Unfortunatly the money that was our registration and some team fees are all spent to setup la grange before now as well as all supplies. This is going to turn into a nightmare logistically and publicity wise.

Unfortunatly the money that was our registration and some team fees are all spent to setup la grange before now as well as all supplies. This is going to turn into a nightmare logistically and publicity wise.

Yeah, I knew all that but still bugs you, ya know?