Professional Cycling For the Fans - TDF: will lance armstrong finish in the top 10?

Lance will be in top ten.

Contador will not only win the hilltop finishes, he will beat all the other GC contendors in the TT.

I predict LA will put time into him.

Judging by the first singleton TT, Frank has to be sweating tomorrow. LA took 40sec out of Frank
then and then gap is a bit less. If LA shows up at top form, he may move into 3d. Andy would have
to crash or flat to lose his place though.

Don't know about that. If Armstrong is indeed moving to form, and I am not saying he is, he can put a minute into Contador and much more in Frank and Andy.

Richard


Judging by the first singleton TT, Frank has to be sweating tomorrow. LA took 40sec out of Frank
then and then gap is a bit less. If LA shows up at top form, he may move into 3d. Andy would have
to crash or flat to lose his place though.

I think Lance, along with Wiggens and Kloden will move ahead of Frank Schleck tomorrow. Lance may clip Andy Schleck, it could be close. If he does, it will be difficult to maintain on Ventoux. These two (Andy/Lance) could be within a couple seconds on the last day. One thing I do know, AC, Andy Schleck and Nibali will be battling for years to come.

Well Schleck will have to improve his time trial to really ever have a chance against Contador. But then again Contador may be on a weaker team next year, so Schleck may have a shot.

I think it's pretty obvious Lance will get at least top five. If he can get on the podium, that would be incredible. There are already talks of Lance coming back next year to compete. So there is at least one more year to come of a descent TDF. When Lance retires we might as well all go back to watching golf :P

Sounds like a good plan for you.

Richard


When Lance retires we might as well all go back to watching golf :P

Now it boils down to Ventoux and what Frank, Andreas, Wiggo and LA can do to each other.
Contador gets to sit back and watch or play spoiler depending on whether he is still a team
member that day.

Contador will make a lot of friends and enhance his own career if he helps Lance win on the Ventoux.

It looks likely baring any major mishap that Lance will make the top 10. He may even take a podium spot. With the creation of team RS and his plans to do the tour next year I’m wondering if he can win the TDF in 2010. Lance is riding well and has shown he can still ride with the best of them. If he trains like the Lance of old, do you think he can win in 2010?

No I don't.

I don't think it is so much him getting worse, but the riders are getting better. The good ones now are 10 plus years his junior. They grew up in a more advance era. In ten years AC may still be flying up mountains but the new kids will be schooling him.

That is why records are always being broken.

Richard


It looks likely baring any major mishap that Lance will make the top 10. He may even take a podium spot. With the creation of team RS and his plans to do the tour next year I’m wondering if he can win the TDF in 2010. Lance is riding well and has shown he can still ride with the best of them. If he trains like the Lance of old, do you think he can win in 2010?

No I don't.

I don't think it is so much him getting worse, but the riders are getting better. The good ones now are 10 plus years his junior. They grew up in a more advance era. In ten years AC may still be flying up mountains but the new kids will be schooling him.

That is why records are always being broken.

Richard

I think the era has something to do with people breaking records, but not in the way you imagine.

no top ten finish.



i think even if he races he has a better chance at dnf than cracking the top 10 :eek:.



25% chance of a top 10 finish for lance assuming:
- the team exists in a month.
- lance races in the tdf


no to top ten.



i'm posting again to elaborate on my logic. If the team starts, and if contador is on the same team as lance, and unless contador crashes out on a really early stage, lance probably isn't even going to try riding for the win. If he's not the gc guy for his team - no way he's going to finish top 10. Even if he is the gc guy, i doubt he can do it. Top 20 - i think he could crack that. Top 10 - no.

Contador, evans, basso, sastre, schleck (pick one or both), valjavek, leipheimer, menchov, rogers, gesink, s. Chavanel, sanchez, vandevelde, kirchen, soler, dessel, gilbert, efimkin, kreuziger - imo, all the above have a better shot at top 10 (injuries notwithstanding) than does lance


top ten? No friggin' way.


rationally i vote no, but if money were involved i'd bet yes just to keep things exciting.


i say no, unless contador crashes out.


i don't think lance will finish in the top 10. The field will be stronger; i doubt he will be fully recovered from the giro; and assuming astana holds together, his main job will be to support contador.

Not to mention that he's 38, has been screwing around for a few years, and won't recover anywhere near as fast as he used to

:d:)

:d:)

What a smack down!

Drugs or not it has alway been that way.

Richard


I think the era has something to do with people breaking records, but not in the way you imagine.

So if Lance is older and less physically able but still doing this well, does that mean that one might reasonably assume that he wasn't doping before when he won since it would be crazy for him to dope this time around?

What a smack down!


Lots of crow to eat!!

:lol::lol::lol:

I think now is a good time to revive this thread :innocent:

Lance's finish was not that hard to predict (except for those in this thread who he didn't have a chance). Historically he always rode to his best condition for this race. Heck, if he could finish 11th in his prior race, using it as preparation, how could anyone think he wasn't going to be in the top 10 in this race?

I predict he'll be even better next year. I wonder how many fools with still say he has no chance.

Yeah, and I cashed out of the .com bubble at the peak :innocent:

I have no problem saying he rode a lot better than it looked like he would at the end of the Giro. There were also a bunch of riders who underperformed massively in this year's Tour. Unless something really bad happens to Alberto or Andy next year, the best he can hope for is 3rd.

I have no problem saying he rode a lot better than it looked like he would at the end of the Giro. There were also a bunch of riders who underperformed massively in this year's Tour. Unless something really bad happens to Alberto or Andy next year, the best he can hope for is 3rd.

wow already making predictions for next year?!

Unless something really bad happens to Alberto or Andy next year, the best he can hope for is 3rd.

So with your prediction history, I think we can assume he will win it next year :lol:

I have no problem saying he rode a lot better than it looked like he would at the end of the Giro. There were also a bunch of riders who underperformed massively in this year's Tour. Unless something really bad happens to Alberto or Andy next year, the best he can hope for is 3rd.

I say if he is in a little bit better form next year he can make up that minute to Andy. He probably won't be abe to touch Contador because he won't gain time in the TT

I have no problem saying he rode a lot better than it looked like he would at the end of the Giro. There were also a bunch of riders who underperformed massively in this year's Tour. Unless something really bad happens to Alberto or Andy next year, the best he can hope for is 3rd.

Well, I certainly won't come to you for any investment advice!
I really do think Armstrong was the second best rider in the tour this year. If he wouldn't have marked Wiggins that day and not had to burn that huge candle trying to get time back I think he would have had a better TT.
But at this stage of one's career, the years really start taking a toll. I was absolutely flabbergasted by Armstrong's performance this year.

So with your prediction history, I think we can assume he will win it next year :lol:

I can predict you won't be riding in the race, Troop.

Well, I certainly won't come to you for any investment advice!
I really do think Armstrong was the second best rider in the tour this year. If he wouldn't have marked Wiggins that day and not had to burn that huge candle trying to get time back I think he would have had a better TT.
But at this stage of one's career, the years really start taking a toll. I was absolutely flabbergasted by Armstrong's performance this year.

That's fine, but I did manage to not lose any of my 401K to the market collapse. :p

Lance wasn't the only rider to hold back. Both Alberto and Andy also did on a number of occasions.

That's fine, but I did manage to not lose any of my 401K to the market collapse. :p

Lance wasn't the only rider to hold back. Both Alberto and Andy also did on a number of occasions.

What, did you have it all in gold?

I still contend that Lance was second best rider this year. You wanna bet??:)

What, did you have it all in gold?

I still contend that Lance was second best rider this year. You wanna bet??:)

No. I'll just content myself in knowing I'm right. :thumb:

I can predict you won't be riding in the race, Troop.

You're quite the gambling man.You must live on the edge :lol:

Well... I was wrong. Arrgghh!!!


Don't assume, though, because I didn't think he would that I didn't hope he would. :)

What, did you have it all in gold?

I still contend that Lance was second best rider this year. You wanna bet??:)

Andy S could have put minutes into Lance today. But he knew Lance couldn't threaten him so he devoted himself to moving his brother up. If Contador hadn't stayed back and just marked Andy the double team on Lance might have moved Frank to the podium.

I think this podium has the strongest riders ranked exactly right ... which is usually what happens.

Andy S could have put minutes into Lance today. But he knew Lance couldn't threaten him so he devoted himself to moving his brother up. If Contador hadn't stayed back and just marked Andy the double team on Lance might have moved Frank to the podium.




I'm not sure we watched the same race. Andy Schleck could have put minutes into Armstrong, but it would not change anything in the standings.

They did Double team Armstrong. Andy was totally working to move Frank up and Frank didn't have the legs.

Read the quote I responded too, my point was that Andy S was the 2nd strongest rider in the race.

I also know they doubled Armstrong ... my point was that it may have worked if Contador had flown the coop to try for a stage win and left LA isolated.

I just went back and read this threads first couple pages. Boy most of you guys blew it.

Here is my assessment on Lance's performance this year.

A simply outstanding performance despite coming in 3rd.......as long as you take into account the almost 4 year layoff, broken collar bone, and the fact that he wasn't properly trained for this year's tour (he was toooo heavy).

Yes I know Contador is extremely strong and much younger enabling him to climb like he's on a motorcycle. And yes, Andy Shleck weighs less than a pebble so he has NO PROBLEM climbing himself.
But even so......

I think Armstrong could have done much better this year if he didn't stray away from his usual preparation routine. Working out in his home gym and riding races all year didn't do enough for him I think. He thought he could do some light training, ride some races, and rely on his superior abilities.
It did in fact help him to get 3rd in this year's race......but only by the skin of his teeth.

Look at him.

He was obviously incredibly strong but just too damn heavy. I'd say he is 15 pounds heavier than usual.....it's probably all muscle though. He is felling "old" like he said in the interview after the mount ventoux stage but I think he's just outta shape.

I dunno, what do you all think?

Andy S could have put minutes into Lance today. But he knew Lance couldn't threaten him so he devoted himself to moving his brother up. If Contador hadn't stayed back and just marked Andy the double team on Lance might have moved Frank to the podium.

I think this podium has the strongest riders ranked exactly right ... which is usually what happens.

Andy tried. But Frank just didn't have the legs Saturday and that was that. Lance earned 3rd.

A simply outstanding performance despite coming in 3rd.......as long as you take into account the almost 4 year layoff, broken collar bone, and the fact that he wasn't properly trained for this year's tour (he was toooo heavy).

Yes I know Contador is extremely strong and much younger enabling him to climb like he's on a motorcycle. And yes, Andy Shleck weighs less than a pebble so he has NO PROBLEM climbing himself.
But even so......

I think Armstrong could have done much better this year if he didn't stray away from his usual preparation routine. Working out in his home gym and riding races all year didn't do enough for him I think. He thought he could do some light training, ride some races, and rely on his superior abilities.
It did in fact help him to get 3rd in this year's race......but only by the skin of his teeth.

Look at him.

He was obviously incredibly strong but just too damn heavy. I'd say he is 15 pounds heavier than usual.....it's probably all muscle though. He is felling "old" like he said in the interview after the mount ventoux stage but I think he's just outta shape.

I dunno, what do you all think?

I think you are wrong about his weight. From what the media was saying he came into this tour at around 155 pounds. Which is close to the lightest he has been coming into the first week of the tour. Thats 15-20 pounds lighter than when he competed in the Leadville 100.

After taking the time off from racing that he had. The usual training approach of targeting the TDF would not have worked. He needed the extra racing to get back his power and speed as much as possible. He would have never been able to accomplish this by just training on his own specifically for the tour. He might have been able to make the top 15 if he had used that approach.

Now if he is able to maintain his level of fitness and power without too much of a drop off during the off season, a targeted TDF training routine might be beneficial for next year. I think that he is planning on doing a triathalon during the off season.

It's over and I was wrong. I didn't think LA would be in the top 10 in the last week yet he ends up on the podium. Impressive. Not only was he strong enough to hang when it mattered but he rode a very smart race. I believe that's what got him there.

That said I am now less of a fan of LA than I was before. He played the media and fans to a tee. He continued his divisive stance when there was no one else to benefit but himself. His "not going to comment" and "going to bite my tongue" said more than if he had put a team spin on it. Now he has what he wanted. I can't wait until 2010 and if all goes as planned team RS get the invite to the TDF. I want to hear LA say again that the first week will determine the team leader and that team RS will have multiple contenders. Not holding my breath...

If Team RS is a ProTour team, they get an automatic invite. I think that part of the ASO/UCI deal is already in effect.

I say he will finish in the top 3

Now he has what he wanted.
Yeah, a podium finish for himself, a win for his teammate, presumably millions of dollars raised for cancer research through increased visibility for Livestrong.

I don't get the hate, but maybe it's something that comes with a lot deeper bike knowledge than I have.

To all you Lance Armstrong non believers.......Nah nah nah nah nah nahhh! Way to go Lance!! :thumb:

You guys should spend more time on your bikes!

Can 't wait for next years tour!!!

I think you are wrong about his weight. From what the media was saying he came into this tour at around 155 pounds. Which is close to the lightest he has been coming into the first week of the tour. Thats 15-20 pounds lighter than when he competed in the Leadville 100.

After taking the time off from racing that he had. The usual training approach of targeting the TDF would not have worked. He needed the extra racing to get back his power and speed as much as possible. He would have never been able to accomplish this by just training on his own specifically for the tour. He might have been able to make the top 15 if he had used that approach.

Now if he is able to maintain his level of fitness and power without too much of a drop off during the off season, a targeted TDF training routine might be beneficial for next year. I think that he is planning on doing a triathalon during the off season.

I think that the whole issue with Lance;s weight this year was not really how much he weighted but where he had that weight. I think several people here and on other forums have pointed out that he still looked a bit bigger in the upper body than in the 7 tours he won. I think that he may have gained weight in the chest and arms while he also lost muscle in the legs.