Professional Cycling - TDF: will lance armstrong finish in the top 10?

i say no. what do you think?

ed rader

i say no. what do you think?

ed rader

I'm thinking Astana is likely to not even start.

If they do, I say no too (so I guess I'm saying no either way).

First he has to finish.

First he has to finish.


no finish, no show = did not finish in top 10.

ed rader

Likely won't start as team won't have $$

If he does start, no to a top ten based on his current Giro fitness...he's losing time to Petacchi on hilly stages. If he's using this strictly for training and just building up endurance/tempo, then the second half of the Giro will be more telling.

Likely won't start as team won't have $$

If he does start, no to a top ten based on his current Giro fitness...he's losing time to Petacchi on hilly stages. If he's using this strictly for training and just building up endurance/tempo, then the second half of the Giro will be more telling.

gun to your head. your answer NOW is ?

ed rader

i say no. what do you think?

ed rader

Let's take the interesting Q's in order:

1. Will Astana start?

2. Will Lance start?

3. If #2 is "yes", on what team?

4. If #2 is "yes", will he finish in the top 10?

Let's take the interesting Q's in order:

1. Will Astana start?

2. Will Lance start?

3. If #2 is "yes", on what team?

4. If #2 is "yes", will he finish in the top 10?

top 10. yes or no. with what you know NOW. yes or no?

ed rader

top ten assuming he doesn't have any training setbacks...IE..crash, no team, stuff like that.

25% chance of a top 10 finish for Lance assuming:
- The team exists in a month.
- Lance races in the TDF

Considering Astana can't have 3 GC contenders in the same team, I think the biggest threat to Lance in the top 10 is having him designated as a "super-domestique" after the first week or two for either Levi or Contradope.

Even if Lance rides in to form during the Giro, it would be really tough for Lance to become the GC guy for his team, unless something happens to Contradope. (injury, positive test, illness, etc)

top ten assuming he doesn't have any training setbacks...IE..crash, no team, stuff like that.

That's my vote as well. 7th or 8th

lance will be almost 38 by TDF time. the last "old" guy to win the TDF was bjarne riis and i believe he was 35. when riis won i recall seeing a list of the ages of all the TDF champs and i remember only a couple of guys had won who were older than riis.

now, i know lance is "different". he did afterall win the TDF an unprecedented seven times in a row.

but i think even if he races he has a better chance at DNF than cracking the top 10 :eek:.

ed rader

No top ten finish.

gun to your head. your answer NOW is ?

ed rader

No to top ten.

- uncertainty over team finances/participation
- lack of top level fitness (many people riding away from him now, unlike in the past)
- age
- no longer feared
- infusion of younger talent in past three years (e.g., Schleck, Lövqvist) and improvement of other riders (e.g., Basso)
- Ullrich and Pantani no longer around to fuel his fire

All these outweigh his will and genetics IMO.

If Lance does start in the TDF then I have to say Yes he will make the top 10. He may be getting old but the TDF is his race. It will be interesting to see where he stands at the end of the Giro and Levi too.

You all are crazy if you think Astana won't start the Tour. They won't be Astana, but the riders will be the same. So let me get this straight, Contador, Levi and Lance who are perhaps all among the top five most well known riders in the world won't start??? Please. They will get the money, believe me, Lance is connected like no one else on the planet (Maybe Tiger, Beckham, Federer are close). Whether it's Trek, SRAM, Bill Clinton, whoever, they will get the money once they break from Kazakstan and switch the license to Johan.

The man is 25th right now with just a few months training total and a recent major injury. He placed 7th at the ToC (which was stacked) in his first race back after retirement. I'm impressed. As for the TdF, the issue is more of what role he plays and how he fits in with two other TdF favorites (Levi, Contador). Yes, he can make into the top ten!!! He has the team, the brains and he can TT, and by the start of the TdF he will probably have the legs too.

I'm posting again to elaborate on my logic. If the team starts, and if Contador is on the same team as Lance, and unless Contador crashes out on a really early stage, Lance probably isn't even going to try riding for the win. If he's not the GC guy for his team - no way he's going to finish top 10. Even if he is the GC guy, I doubt he can do it. Top 20 - I think he could crack that. Top 10 - no.

Contador, Evans, Basso, Sastre, Schleck (pick one or both), Valjavek, Leipheimer, Menchov, Rogers, Gesink, S. Chavanel, Sanchez, VanDeVelde, Kirchen, Soler, Dessel, Gilbert, Efimkin, Kreuziger - IMO, all the above have a better shot at top 10 (injuries notwithstanding) than does Lance

Astana is a professional racing team. Money is spent to pay AND KEEP GC contenders and their support riders with the expectation of winning races. Astana has THE best current GT rider in it's ranks and some strong contenders. Lance is not even paid to ride with the team. Who do you think Bruyneel is going to pick as the leader for any GT this year?

Astana pecking order: Bruyneel, Contador, Levi, Armstrong (maybe), the rest.

I'm posting again to elaborate on my logic. If the team starts, and if Contador is on the same team as Lance, and unless Contador crashes out on a really early stage, Lance probably isn't even going to try riding for the win. If he's not the GC guy for his team - no way he's going to finish top 10. Even if he is the GC guy, I doubt he can do it. Top 20 - I think he could crack that. Top 10 - no.

I thought the question was, 'can he do it', not 'will he get an opportunity to do it'? It sounds like the latter from your last post and to this end, you are probably right. Here is another scenario, if he road for Columbia, which is a very strong team that lacks a true GC threat at the Tdf, could he podium? I know Col has Kirchin, but IMO he wasn't impressive last year. I think he could.

Another scenario, if Levi wins the Giro does he step back and support Lance at the TdF? That would mean Albert and Lance get supported by a mix of Levi, Horner et al. This I think is certainly manageable for the team considering Astana put two guys on the podium in '07 and at the Vuelta.

There are a lot of ways this could play out, one thing to remember is this isn't just about strength of rider and ego, there is a cause involved (Livestrong) and the TdF is the ultimate stage in terms of exposure.

Astana pecking order: Bruyneel, Contador, Levi, Armstrong (maybe), the rest.

Astana's survival might depend on Armstrong's involvement. Whatever new team is created, Armstrong will be at the top of the pecking order at the end of the day from an ownership and management perspective, or not be involved at all.

The "Astana" pecking order is different from the "Astana GC Pecking order."

The "Astana" pecking order is different from the "Astana GC Pecking order."

True. But even so, Lance in management should not change the GC pecking order. If it does the others are likely to fly the coop. Lance is smart and so is Bruyneel. They love what they do and want to continue doing it.

don't forget about lance and nike. they do more for him than anyone. i think that he will win the tour this year. a former pro i ride with was saying that really, lance is right on track for peaking in july. we'll see what he does in a week or two in the giro.

If and this is a big IF, What if Lance wins the TDF will the haters still say he doped to win?

If and this is a big IF, What if Lance wins the TDF will the haters still say he doped to win?

That's a given - but let's not go there please.

Top ten? No friggin' way.

If and this is a big IF, What if Lance wins the TDF will the haters still say he doped to win?

You're not kidding it's a big IF.

He couldn't win without being jacked before. How in the hell is going to do it clean now? Unless he hooks up with Ferrari he won't break the top 40 at the Tour.

Top ten, well that really depends on how he handles his role. If he works his butt off for Contador then no, he will not be in the top ten.

He might not be in the best shape ,but he will have fresh legs ans can be top ten even being a super domestique. He can conserve energy at the stages where he isn't needed and Brunyell will use him without exploding him in some climbs. I think he will be in the top ten barring injuries or accidents. I might be in the minority but i think i'm right....we shall see soon

He might not be in the best shape ,but he will have fresh legs ans can be top ten even being a super domestique. He can conserve energy at the stages where he isn't needed and Brunyell will use him without exploding him in some climbs. I think he will be in the top ten barring injuries or accidents. I might be in the minority but i think i'm right....we shall see soon
I am with you 100% on this.

29 posts on Armstrong's prospects for July. 3 so far on todays stage of the Giro. It is still May.

Rationally I vote no, but if money were involved I'd bet yes just to keep things exciting.

29 posts on Armstrong's prospects for July. 3 so far on todays stage of the Giro. It is still May.

I would post more on today's stage, but I don't want to be a spoiler. With re-broadcasts going every night and late on the West coast, I am afraid to say too much.

Rationally I vote no, but if money were involved I'd bet yes just to keep things exciting.

I am some where between 'hell yes' and 'hell no'.

I would post more on today's stage, but I don't want to be a spoiler. With re-broadcasts going every night and late on the West coast, I am afraid to say too much.

The stage spacific threads that are sticky's are already considered spoilers so you can post away regardless of time. I don't see the stage until the evening broadcast so I don't come on here until after.

I say no, unless Contador crashes out. He *will* be in the top 25, but the role of a domestique will cause him to lose significant time on at least one or two stages.

He will TT well. The wild card is if he gets his climbing legs back. Levi is an excellent climber but has no acceleration, leaving him vulnerable to coordinated attacks. But can you imagine AC and a rejuvenated LA combining attacks? It's frightening! (Btw, will both Schlecks be back this year? On the same team?)

Depends on his role. If the team rides for Lance, I say yes, he'll be top ten. If Lance rides for A.C., then top 25 as stated.

Yes.

If Lance can finish in 12th place in the Giro, it's certainly possible for him to finish in the top 10 at the TDF assuming he has good luck and no mishaps leading up to the TDF.

I don't think that we will see the kind of climbing accelerations that he could do in the past. While I think he can finish in the top ten I don't think that he can win it. I think there will be 3-6 riders who are stronger at the TDF.

I think he had a pretty good Giro considering the injury and the fact he had to pace Levi up some of the mountains a couple of times, but still doubt a Top 10. I think he will have a respectable time however and serve Contador well.

don't forget about lance and nike. they do more for him than anyone. i think that he will win the tour this year. a former pro i ride with was saying that really, lance is right on track for peaking in july. we'll see what he does in a week or two in the giro. I want to believe. I do . I really do.

I don't think Lance will finish in the Top 10. The field will be stronger; I doubt he will be fully recovered from the Giro; and assuming Astana holds together, his main job will be to support Contador.

Not to mention that he's 38, has been screwing around for a few years, and won't recover anywhere near as fast as he used to

I don't think Lance will finish in the Top 10. The field will be stronger; I doubt he will be fully recovered from the Giro; and assuming Astana holds together, his main job will be to support Contador.

Not to mention that he's 38, has been screwing around for a few years, and won't recover anywhere near as fast as he used to

It really could go either way. However, usually the TDF has a more friendly order of hard and difficult stages. This might help some. This years Giro was brutal. I've never been able to watch it before but it just seemed to have broken Levi. Even Lance did not have anything left for the stage 21 TT. Unless he was already working on his recovery. I think if Lance did not have to help Levi and he was to have ridden it easier he may have gotten more of a training effect out of it without quite the difficulty of recovering. It will be a challenge for Lance to recover fully for the TDF.

I'm curious as to what he will do the first week to recover without loosing too much of the training effect from the Giro's intensity. I'm speculating about what I would do if faced with the same situation. Probably take at least 2-3 days completely off without even looking at the bike. Then maybe do some light cross training for 3-4 days staying off the bike. Then back on the bike for a week of light spinning and easy riding. Then a few weeks of building up to the TDF.

Or, do you think he would do nothing for two weeks. Then start to hit training again starting out easy and building from there.

Does anyone remember how Greg Lemond looked in the Giro before he won the TDF in 88, I will give you a clue, it starts with sh and ends with it! (except for a good result in the last TT)

Does anyone remember how Greg Lemond looked in the Giro before he won the TDF in 88, I will give you a clue, it starts with sh and ends with it! (except for a good result in the last TT)

Well Lance had a terrible last TT so I guess that puts paid to that little analogy.

compared to this year's giro, the tour looks like a walk in the park with neutered mountain
stages and only 3 mountaintop finishes: verbier looks relatively tame, arcalis could do some
damage as the first real mountain stage but mont ventoux is where we'll all find out-barring
injury-where armstrong stands. don't really see lance having to bury himself for contador on
any stages save the ttt, arcalis and ventoux. conceivably, the reincarnated team of
astana/livestrong could have plenty of climbers (horner, rubiera, levi, popovych et al)
to protect both contador & armstrong until ventoux. with the astana players generally
showing well in team time trials, armstrong & contador could realistically be up on many
of the gc contenders with weaker teams by 30 seconds to 2 minutes. after all the
"gamesmanship" and doubletalk by armstrong, wouldn't we all like to see contador give
him the look on the slopes of ventoux and just hit the turbo while ignoring bruyneel's
orders to cease & desist? i know i would. armstrong's experience in climbing the ventoux
multiple times in race conditions will count for something though. stage 20 will likely
eliminate most if not all of the young guns (within 5 minutes of the lead) that haven't
stormed the ventoux before. lance in top ten but behind cadel, sastre, contador &
menchov.

Does anyone remember how Greg Lemond looked in the Giro before he won the TDF in 88, I will give you a clue, it starts with sh and ends with it! (except for a good result in the last TT)

You're thinking of 1989, but yes, correct in that GL had a craphole Giro until a "B12" shot by his sougnier capulted him to a great final TT, leading the way to a great (but close) 1989 TdF win.

Well Lance had a terrible last TT so I guess that puts paid to that little analogy.

I wouldn't say that. The roads were essentially oiled and he had nothing to compete for. Why would he risk another fall? His time is no indication of how well he could have placed in different circumstances.

I say no, unless Contador crashes out. He *will* be in the top 25, but the role of a domestique will cause him to lose significant time on at least one or two stages.




Depends on how Bruyneel plays it. I don't thing he'll use Armstrong as a "super domestique" in the carrying water bottles sense. Astana has enough support that Armstrong doesn't need to be used like that. (such as Kloden).

Rather, Bruyneel will want to keep Armstrong highly enough placed that other teams have to respect any move he makes, giving Astana multiple cards to play, ala Sastre, Frank Schleck, Andy Schleck last year.

Such a strategy only works if Armstrong is high enough on GC to be a threat.

Last year CSC had Sastre winning and Frank 6th, and Andy 12th.

So if Armstrong is strong enough to be in the top handful, team tactics should not prevent him from a top ten finish.

Yes.

Reasons, Lance looked pretty good the last week of the Giro on the climbs. He even attacked on Blockhaus but did not have enough juice to bridge the gap. This separates him from Levi or Cadel (Super Levi) who are top 10 riders in their own right but don't/can't attack on the climbs.

Furthermore, IMO this year's TdF is a much easier/less risky course than the Giro was. In essence, it will all come down to Lance's ITT ability IMO (as well as the obvious staying out of trouble and JB's decisions on whether he wants to push the Lance card or not).

However, I don't think Lance has the goods any longer to podium; too many younger, better, climbers with good ITT skills. He has to seriously be juiced for that to happen...