Road Bike Racing - Who will win the 2004 TdF?

Well?

Well?

How come you didn't vote? :)

How come you didn't vote? :)

I'm a little slow. :o

I think Lance will get number 6, but I also think its going to be a much
more hard fought victory than last year.
Yeah I know it was a close tour, I just think this year if anyone is close
(and I think Tyler, Jan and Iban will be) it will NOT be because Lance
is having a bad tour, not the same run of bad luck as last year.

Marty

My guess is that Armstrong will get #6 and it will be less of a hard fought victory than last year. And he will probably get #7 as well.

Either that, or he won't podium this year.

i would actually love to see tyler hamilton win. that would be great. but i still think lance will take #6, so i voted for him.

I'm rather suprised nobody voted for Jan so far, as I think he's by far Lance's #1 rival.

However I think this year we're going to see some old-school Lance and team USPS action, last year was just way to close between LA and JU (and the rest of the top 5), so I predict Lance will come out with the gloves off this year and deliver a resounding beat down on the competition. I don't think we're going to see LA take the same kind of chances this year as he did last and I bet he comes to the line stronger than any other year.

The other thing I can see happen is that his and USPS success will have worn them down and they will get a good ol' fashion schooling on why nobody has won more than 5 times.

Basically I don't see a close battle between LA and the competition.

Andrew

I've heard Jans was fairly out of shape coming into the season, but have you seen Tyler Hamilton in some of the earlier races, man oh man. I also think Vinokorouv will be up there. Lance looks tough I know, but Tyler Hamilton is my pick right now.

A better poll to start up... who will place second?

I voted for Lance. I still think he's a very strong rider and I agree that USPS will try their best (and history has shown that's usually enough) to leave nothing to chance this time around. I very much would like to see Tyler win or even podium for that matter. I'm still hoping he'll get second if not first but Phonak is a new team this year. I am curious about his former team, CSC. They've made a strong showing this year although it's not like they've ever been a bad team... quite the contrary as a matter of fact. I think they could be a really strong challenger to USPS.

Imagine if Riis can do for Basso what he's done for others...I don't really think it will happen but he does seem to bring out the best in his riders.

I predict Lance, Tyler, Mayo, and then Ullrich. I find it hard to put Ullrich that far down but I think the TT on Alpe D'huez may hurt him a little too much.

I would like to see it be Tyler, Lance, Ullrich.

i would actually love to see tyler hamilton win. that would be great. but i still think lance will take #6, so i voted for him.

I feel the same way. I voted for Lance, but I'd love to see Tyler win.

I think Lance will win this year, and it will look very similar to his 2001 and 2002 victories - very dominant.

Top five:

1) Lance
2) Mayo
3) Tyler
4) Jan
5) Vino or Heras.. not sure on this one yet.

I think Mayo will end up winning it next year.

I've been thinking about your list, Devil. It seems too obvious though. One of those riders will have an accident or a really bad day.

I see Heras in 9th or 10th. I'm going to put Zabeldia or Moreau at 5th.

I completely forgot about Moreau. I will put Moreau at 5th as well.

I think the accident thing is certainly possible, and there will always be a dark horse.

I hope not though, I want to see those guys battle it out.

I voted for Lance.

I had been reviewing the TdF 2002 and 2003 tapes and man he's like a machine on the mountain stages!

I've been thinking about your list, Devil. It seems too obvious though. One of those riders will have an accident or a really bad day.

I see Heras in 9th or 10th. I'm going to put Zabeldia or Moreau at 5th.
Ahhh. Finally someone mentions Haimar Zubeldia. Good call. But I'd nudge Heras up a little higher on the GC.

I'm going with Lance. Then Ullrich and Mayo.

You're right, Laggard. Didn't we all have Beloki with a top five finish last year? But for a warm patch of tar... And on stage 1, a Kelme rider's foot slipped out of his pedal, and 30 men went down! It could have been anyone under that pileup.

And let's hope that kid with the musette doesn't show up again.

Stating the obvious, in July in France it's Lance until somebody beats him.

This looks to be the most competitive peloton he's faced. Ullrich has looked well in Germany, Mayo seems to be improving in TTs and his climbing isn't in doubt. Tyler wants it bad.

Either Lance wins fairly easily or the peloton finally cracks him and he's off podium.

i vote for lance #6!!!!!!!! then tyler then who knows??

I think Lance will make it #6 but it will be a tough battle. There are more riders who genuinely believe they can knock LA off the top. But Lance is a fighter in the truest sense of the word who will never give up. To think that he won't finish on the podium is unthinkable :eek:

Lance, Tyler, Mayo, Heras, Moreau, Zabeldia all have great form right now and Jan is coming finally into form, but what's with Vino, didn't see him much in the Tour of Germany! And Beloki, I think he'll abandon this year....poor form, team problems, nothing seems to have gone right for him this year which is a shame, he would have added to an already strong field of contenders. I do hope I'm wrong.

Phonak will do just fine in the Tour. Look how many riders keep figuring in the top end of the results of this year. I think the only ? is with the TTT, Tyler can't lose to much time there.

I hope Tyler at least gets on the podium ;)

Poor Beloki. His team is folding after this year, he has allergy problems and can't take the medicine needed to relieve it, and on top of it his asthma's acting up.

I feel for the guy. He's as talented as Hamilton but that crash hurt him more than I think anyone thought it would.

I have two outsider picks for the top 10 but am afraid to mention them.

Don't be afraid now, Laggard. Spill it!

I have two outsider picks for the top 10 but am afraid to mention them.

go on, we won't laugh ;)

I have two outsider picks for the top 10 but am afraid to mention them.

He wants to pick his boy Menchov. ;)

Damn, am I that obvious, Don? You guessed it.

I'm also rooting for a certain Italian teammate of the worlds fastest sprinter. A guy who showed good form and a lot of drive. I'm probably way off on this one.

Could it be Dario Cioni? Nah, couldn't be!

That's an interesting pick for a top ten placing. We'll see. I'm not denying that it could happen, but I doubt it.

I'm going to go with Jan for the win this year.

All the flyweight little climbers will attack, respond, attack, respond in the mountains, while Ulrich rides his steady tempo, and slowly improves his form. While they're all burning themselves out trying to make sure Lance doesn't win #6, Jan will remain high up in the GC, just waiting. Then he'll drop the hammer in the stage 19 60km ITT, and ride into Paris triumphant.

Laggard, if you're talking about Cioni, I agree. He may have gained the confidence he needed with his ride in the Giro.

Could it be Dario Cioni? Nah, couldn't be!

That's an interesting pick for a top ten placing. We'll see. I'm not denying that it could happen, but I doubt it.

Yeah, top 20 maybe. This years Giro field was week.

In my heart of hearts, I really want this to be the TDF with a really big shakeup.

Part of me wants to see a serious shake up with an unknown just slaughtering everyone, and perhaps a bigger part of me wants to see Lance win #6.

I'm going to go with Jan for the win this year.

All the flyweight little climbers will attack, respond, attack, respond in the mountains, while Ulrich rides his steady tempo, and slowly improves his form. While they're all burning themselves out trying to make sure Lance doesn't win #6, Jan will remain high up in the GC, just waiting. Then he'll drop the hammer in the stage 19 60km ITT, and ride into Paris triumphant.

Laggard, if you're talking about Cioni, I agree. He may have gained the confidence he needed with his ride in the Giro.

While I don't agree on Cioni :) , this is much the way I see things for Jan. He has the teammates to cover the attacks, so he can just sit and wait, marking Lance through most of the race. I too think the 60k tt will be the decisive stage, unless there is an injury. I picked Lance to win, but Jan, Tyler, Lance, and even Botero will be looking at that tt as a deal closer.

Some people may want to change their picks looking at the result of today's Dauphine stage on Ventoux...

All I can say is "wow..."

I picked Mayo 4 months ago, and I still pick him

Damn, what a ride.

Some people may want to change their picks looking at the result of today's Dauphine stage on Ventoux...

All I can say is "wow..."

Last night I was thinking of quoting my previous post in this thread, and saying something like 'maybe I'll wait until tomorrow'

That guy can climb.