Road Bike Racing - Vaughters predicts dominant win on Ventoux by Mayo

This is an interesting prediction by the current record holder for the Ventoux ascent and former Postie Jonathan Vaughters. From cyclingnews.com:

"The record for this climb is 56:50, held by Jonathan Vaughters, a former pro with US Postal and Credit Agricole and now a director of the US TIAA-Cref team. Cyclingnews spoke to Vaughters at the start today in Bedoin, and he gave us his prognostic:

"My prediction is that the record will be broken and that it will be Mayo who does it," he said. "Whoever beats it will be around 56 minutes flat. I think Armstrong will be second but I think Mayo will beat Armstrong by so much that it'll worry him..."

Vaughters added that "Third place will be some Phonak guy, but not Tyler Hamilton.""

What do you guys think?

We'll find out in an hour or so if he is correct.. cyclingnews.com has live coverage.

Mayo put almost 2 minutes on Lance


1 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 55.51
2 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.33
3 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 1.03
4 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) Quick.Step-Davitamon 1.48
5 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal presented by Berry Floor 1.58
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 3.21
7 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 3.33
8 Stéphane Goubert (Fra) Ag2R Prevoyance 3.36
9 David Moncoutie (Fra) Cofidis, le credit par Telephone 3.59
10 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal presented by Berry Floor 4.09

Ridiculous.

Absolutely ridiculous.

Mayo put almost 2 minutes on Lance

So, is Lance really not going for the win, or is Mayo really that much better? I guess time will tell! :)

So, is Lance really not going for the win, or is Mayo really that much better? I guess time will tell! :)

History has shown us that Lance can play some mind games and do a little bluffing when he wants to. :) Not saying that's what happened, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

That's a good point, don. We'll see what the next three days bring us.

So, is Lance really not going for the win, or is Mayo really that much better? I guess time will tell! :)

I had a feeling that Armstrong really wanted to win there, and at least wanted a strong test of his equipment. This is why I think Vaughters is correct in saying "it will worry him".

When you look at it that way, it makes the idea that this is just a huge bluff a little more obvious to me. Everyone thinks Lance is going to go flat out because he wants this win so badly, yet he 'cracks' and loses 2 minutes.

I don't know, sounds fishy to me.

Or it could be that Lance is finally human. We'll see.

Seeing that Lance and his Coaches have made statements earlier about how they are choosing races that contain hard/or uphill time trials. I can only assume that they are using his performances in these events to check his progress, measure his fitness level compared to the competition and map a strategy for the TdF. It makes no sense for him to not give his all today.

I read he had all sorts of new lightweight kit, superlight carbon wheels etc. I am curious to see what set up Mayo was running. As in last years TdF, he won on the A'lpe using a standard orbea starship frame, TdF edition Ksyriums(tubular), and Dura Ace 9 speed.

If they started 1'00" apart, as I think they did, then Tyler passed Lance on the road. That must've been interesting for a whole boatload of reasons.

If Mayo is a huge favorite going into the TdF, with Tyler there also, Lance could be an underdog.

But honestly, I don't think that's going to help. The other riders are too fixated on Lance. They're going to bring a "pack of wolves bringing down a deer" mentality to the race. It's kind of sad, but I think that many of them will see it as a victory, and will feel a sense of pride, if ANYONE other than Lance wins.

There's a god chance you're right, but we will have to wait and see.

But honestly, I don't think that's going to help. The other riders are too fixated on Lance. They're going to bring a "pack of wolves bringing down a deer" mentality to the race. It's kind of sad, but I think that many of them will see it as a victory, and will feel a sense of pride, if ANYONE other than Lance wins.

I think that that is why Armstrong needs a strong team much more than the others do.
It really started to show last year... the attitude of Armstrong's rivals seemed to be 'either you (Armstrong) chase, or you lose the race'. I think it's really lame. Like they don't mind if someone else steals the race, as long as Armstrong doesn't win (since USPS is the favorite, they are 'obliged' to control the race).

If they started 1'00" apart, as I think they did, then Tyler passed Lance on the road. That must've been interesting for a whole boatload of reasons.

They started 2 minutes apart. I'm sure the results still worry LA just as much. Even Oscar Sevilla beat him by 55 seconds.

Seeing that Lance and his Coaches have made statements earlier about how they are choosing races that contain hard/or uphill time trials. I can only assume that they are using his performances in these events to check his progress, measure his fitness level compared to the competition and map a strategy for the TdF. It makes no sense for him to not give his all today.

Yeah, VeloNews says "...Armstrong crossed the summit in 57:49 ( which is actually the fastest by three seconds that the five-time Tour winner has ever climbed Mont Ventoux)" ... So, I don't think he was messing around.


I read he had all sorts of new lightweight kit, superlight carbon wheels etc. I am curious to see what set up Mayo was running. As in last years TdF, he won on the A'lpe using a standard orbea starship frame, TdF edition Ksyriums(tubular), and Dura Ace 9 speed.

Same VeloNews article says: "For the first time, he was using a brand-new climbing bike from Orbea, the lightest that Mayo has ever ridden."

I know Euskaltel has new Carbon Orbeas, with 10 speed Dura Ace....but

Mayo won this time trial riding an all alloy frame of some sort, It looks like Columbus Starship, with Euskaltels 2002 paintjob! carbon fork, and what looks like 9 speed Dura Ace. Ksyrium Wheels with Tubulars, no aero bar attachments. I am surprised that he didn't use carbon rims, but maybe they are not in the budget. Looks like he didn't need them. The rear drop outs may be drilled out how ever....



Old School

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/2964/mayo.jpg


New School

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/3198/lance.jpg

Yeah, VeloNews says "...Armstrong crossed the summit in 57:49 ( which is actually the fastest by three seconds that the five-time Tour winner has ever climbed Mont Ventoux)" ... So, I don't think he was messing around.


That doesn't mean much, because they were referring to his time in a road stage (2002).

No, they were referring to his time in the '99 Dauphine Ventoux ITT - the same stage that Vaughters set his record on.

Everyone should be aiming for Lance and attempting to wound and bring down the deer as it was worded. That is the nature of the sport and why the team is so important. I would not want to see a 6 time winner any other way, he should beat all comers in every way possible. As soon as Lance falls behind, if it happens, there will be those joining up with him to bring down the other deer. In the end...the best,smartest rider, from the strongest team should be standing on the top podium spot. I think we sometimes forget to really credit the team for all they do.

I know Euskaltel has new Carbon Orbeas, with 10 speed Dura Ace....but

Mayo won this time trial riding an all alloy frame of some sort, It looks like Columbus Starship, with Euskaltels 2002 paintjob! carbon fork, and what looks like 9 speed Dura Ace. Ksyrium Wheels with Tubulars, no aero bar attachments. I am surprised that he didn't use carbon rims, but maybe they are not in the budget. Looks like he didn't need them. The rear drop outs may be drilled out how ever....

Old School

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/2964/mayo.jpg


Those are DA10 levers. He's riding DA10. The frame maybe all aluminum but that allows for a totally custom built frameset that can be *just* at the UCI weight limit and be tailor-made for him. The Ksyriums are 2004 and for the windy conditions, not a bad idea.

Whats with the old crankset?

Yes, the team is crucial, and now we see how important the French change to the TTT really is.

Cheers

Looks like it's the new Dura Ace crank but with traditional rings.
http://grahamwatson.com/gw/imagedocs.nsf/images/04dauphineSt4/$file/16.jpg

Damn Big Floppy, where did you get that photo, that would have answered all my questions........

Damn Big Floppy, where did you get that photo, that would have answered all my questions........

Graham Watson's site

Graham Watson's site

Yep, I like his picture a lot better than the ones on cycling news. Just a shame there aren't as many.

Whats with the old crankset?
Doesn't look like a 53/39 does it. But not a new FSA, either. He's definitely lower-geared on the cranks.

Never mind that it's a compact frame... is it just me, or does it look tiny?

Did anybody catch Vaughter's comments pre-Ventoux (I think it was VN, can't find the article now)? He felt the conditions were right (wind, temps, etc.) and felt pretty sure his record would fall. One of the significant contributing factors was new, smooth pavement on the final kilometers near the top. Not taking anything away from Vaughters.

One race 3 weeks from the start of the tour (4+ 'til things get hard) doesn't say necessarily say much about how a rider will do. Lance? It would take a very focused rider to give up two minutes on a stage because it was for training, not for winning. You be the judge. I'm thinking we have the makings for a real good Tour.

I also think Lance wasnt holding back in the TT. However I think he will still win the TDF, the mountain TT there is shorter timewise, approx 25min as compared to an hour for Ventoux. I can't see Lance losing 2 mins to anyone over that distance.

Armstrongs time is over - he should accept it and retire.
Sorry, no #6 ...

Armstrongs time is over - he should accept it and retire.
Sorry, no #6 ...

Piratello,

I'm not crazy about the Lance media frenzy, but I respect the guy. He is still an incredible athlete on top of his game. It is way too early to jump into conclusions, and the Tour is wide open as ever. Lance still rode his personal best time on Ventoux, and he is still way more consistent than any of his competitors. Having said that, it is fun to make predictions and take EDUCATED guesses on the final outcome, but ignorant bitterness stemming from one's pathetic little existence does not help anyone. I think Armstrong is still the favorite, and Ulrich is the most dangerous opponent. The tour will be decided on the long 60K ITT towards the end of the race (if there are no crashes before).

Cheers

I don´t neither care about pathetic little existences anyway nor about Armstrong´s best time on the Ventoux.
I don´t see him to be #1 this year, he was just "declassed" by Mayo in every way. Giving proof of not beeing in necessary shape.
Well, who cares ? This year will be an interesting tour, probably the most interesting for years.
Guesses are hard to make - Mayo (firm enough?) ? Ullrich (in shape? what about T-Mobile?)
Someone else ? Nobody knows.
We will see. But Armstrong will certainly not win his 6th TDF. Quote me.

I don´t see him to be #1 this year, he was just "declassed" by Mayo in every way ....

... But Armstrong will certainly not win his 6th TDF. Quote me.

Hmmm, per usual, Ullrich certainly has a chance to dethrown the current 5-time king. Although I like Mayo, barring a Lance breakdown, he has no realistic chance to win the 2004 TdF - quote ME on that.

Lance toook over 8 minutes out of him in last year's TTs.

I can imagine that the American soul is hurt by Armstrong´s loss. But this is professional sport and this is the destiny of heroes - it comes the time they will fall.

I can imagine that the American soul is hurt by Armstrong´s loss. But this is professional sport and this is the destiny of heroes - it comes the time they will fall.

Piratello,

I'm not sure why exactly I'm wasting my time with replying. Your guess is as good as anyone else's, but I would not call Armstrong declassed. Remember that he was a very talented triatlhete before he turned to road, and no rider has a higher threshold for pain than he does. A stage race is about persistence and rock solid mental abilities as well as super human physical performance. Yes, Mayo looks impressive, and he is a possible threat, but I don't believe he has the team to do any major damage this year. Vino is out of the Tour, so T-Mobile is scrambling to change their tactics in the last minute. Why are you so bitter towards Armstrong?

If anyone thinks Lance was soft pedalling Ventoux is on crack. If he was taking it easy he would be 10 minutes down or more on Mayo. Beyond that, it IS Lance's fastest time ever on Ventoux and he isn't in top form yet but he isn't dominating like last year so that tells you something about his leadup.

Mayo might be running hot just like last year so I'm thinking he will faulter in the last week- just like last year. We'll see how much time he has on Lance by that time.

Tyler is an interesting one. He is his worst enemy. He ALWAYS crashes and that seems to take the pressure off mentally or something. Lets hope he is over that and can be mentally competitive without the hysterics.

Simoni will be a player too. I think too many people write him off but he has a similar style on the climbs as Lance and Simoni always rides like a champion, not a follower. He also knows how to win a grand tour- something only Heras, Ullrich and Lance understand...and it's been a distant memory for Ullrich and Heras aint gonna win the TDF.

Vino's absence is probably a huge relief off the USPS camp and a big disappointment to race fans. That killed a good amount of drama.

On another note, I look forward to seeing Pettachi own Mckewn on the flat stages :)

I can imagine that the American soul is hurt by Armstrong´s loss. But this is professional sport and this is the destiny of heroes - it comes the time they will fall.

OH BROTHER!
:rolleyes:
Save the drama for your mama 'cause it ain't playin' here. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I´m not bitter towards him. Why should I be ?
To me nothing changes if he wins or if he loses. He still is incredible athlete, no doubt about that. But to me his time simply over. I compare the situation to 1996 when Indurain was dethrowned.
I wonder if you are very emotional about this. Possibly I´m wrong - correct me.

OH BROTHER!
:rolleyes:
Save the drama for your mama 'cause it ain't playin' here. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

You are quite funny, aren´t you ? :p

Armstrongs time is over - he should accept it and retire.
Sorry, no #6 ...


Piratello,
You've been saying (wishing) that for what 3 years now? :D


I don´t see him to be #1 this year, he was just "declassed" by Mayo in every way. Giving proof of not beeing in necessary shape

as for declasssed, I don't think so.
for example at the 16K mark Armstrong was only about a minute back of Mayo, that is 1k more
than Alpe d'Huez. Look at the TT results from last years TdF. Lance took how many minutes
from Mayo? figure he (Mayo) is 2.5 minutes down at the end of the TTT, gain 1 minute at Alpe D'Huez
Lose another 3 minutes in the final time trial and guess what, Mayo as GC is toast.
Lance said he was not gonna burn out at Dauphine like he did last year, I think thats a good
assessment.
Did he go all out on Ventoux? yah I think so.
Will it matter for the tour? nope.
Is he deClassed (whatever thehell that means)?
no.

Marty

source www.pezcyclingnews.com

Piratello,

I live in the US, but I grew up in "New Europe". I don't think it's very relevant, but I had to mention it after looking at your avatar. Now I understand why you display such pathetic attitude. "Old Europe" hates to see success and strength in a person or nation, so you would naturally love to see Armstrong loose. You are a very sad person.

Piratello,
You've been saying (wishing) that for what 3 years now? :D
Marty

Hi Marty,

for three years now ? :D
Time flies by...

Cheers
Marcus

Piratello,

I live in the US, but I grew up in "New Europe". I don't think it's very relevant, but I had to mention it after looking at your avatar. Now I understand why you display such pathetic attitude. "Old Europe" hates to see success and strength in a person or nation, so you would naturally love to see Armstrong loose. You are a very sad person.

I admire your objectivity and tranquility.
Thanks for getting personal and for mentoning your political attitudes.

But to me his time simply over. I compare the situation to 1996 when Indurain was dethrowned.


So, if Armstrong won the Dauphine, you would assume that his time would be up. If he finished off of the podium, you would assume that his time is up.

I'm not sure Piratello bases his opinion on anything. He is simply bitter. All these riders are incredibly talented athletes, and only time will tell how the Tour unfolds.

celeste - the ugly color