Professional Cycling - TdF Stage 7 - Friday July 10 - 224 km - Barcelona (Spain) → Arcalis (Andorra)

this should be where team astana either establishes their pecking order or plays
hinault vs. lemond II squared...x-box style.

That is one ugly climb at the end.

Contador to put 20 seconds on Evans at the end?

I'm getting in here to be the first to say that this stage will shut all the Lance fanboys up.

Contador to put 20 seconds on Lance at the end?

Probably.

I'm getting in here to be the first to say that this stage will shut all the Lance fanboys up.

Not a bad scenario! Just desserts to see him have to hang on for two weeks by a thread. I was hoping for a more dramatic buildup until he cracked on Ventoux. I'd really like to see the guy show his true colors with the intra Astana squabbles. We'll see....

What kind of sadist puts two sprints on the slopes of an HC climb? :eek:

Definitely will be fireworks here.

Probably.

hey, did you see what happened there?

In any case, may be Evans will rip out some Dauphine action on Contador's ass, taking the stage and putting 20 seconds on The Prince.

Excellent tour so far.

This stage starts the Tour. Evans will have to attack to make up some time. AC could be in Yellow after this stage.

Evans and Sastre working together? They have to try something. I can see A Schleck chipping in too to break Armstrong. Menchov will go off the front. Gesink to work with him? Contador strolls, loses no time or energy.

What kind of sadist puts two sprints on the slopes of an HC climb? :eek:

Definitely will be fireworks here.


methinks prudhomme may be "channeling" the spirit of henri desgrange.
maybe he'll ban rear derailleurs next :)

The final climb isn't steep at all. In the Vuelta, it tends to keep riders in groups, drafting each other.

The final climb isn't steep at all. In the Vuelta, it tends to keep riders in groups, drafting each other.

How steep is it?

It's a whole lotta climbing though... and apparently the finish is one of the highest elevations the race ever had at 2,200 meters. Ugh.



edit --- found it:


Km 32.0 - Côte de Montserrat - 4.1 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 4
Km 97.0 - Port de Solsona - 5.8 km climb to 4.3 % - Category 3
Km 127.0 - Col de Serra-Seca - 7.7 km climb to 7.1 % - Category 1
Km 136.5 - Port del Comte - 3.1 km climb to 5.3 % - Category 3
Km 224.0 - ANDORRE ARCALIS - 10.6 km climb to 7.1 % - Category H

The final climb isn't steep at all. In the Vuelta, it tends to keep riders in groups, drafting each other.

There may be a winning group, but it's not going to be a large one.

Looks like best spot to attack is around 10km to go, though a GC rider would have a really hard time of staying away. The last seven kilometers aren't hard. The only other significant climb on the stage is the Serra-Seca. This stage may be more about preventing losses, like a GC rider having a bad day.

The Verbier on stage 15 looks significantly harder:

But compare these to the Ventoux!

Profiles are useful because average gradient may deceive, if part of the climb is practically flat while an other part is really steep.

I'm out of breath just looking at them.....


You think elevation will be a factor at all??

I'm out of breath just looking at them.....


You think elevation will be a factor at all??

For the climbers? No.

I think Contador will ride the last climb like he's the race leader, and see what he might have left the last km or two to possibly put some time into the others.

This is a classic set up for an "up the road helper" on the 1st Cat climb. I really think that with the HC beginning so shortly after that the action is going to really begin in earnest on the first cat climb.

Ventoux is a hell of a HC climb, but it is much more mellow before the climb. This stage not so much.

Verbier, however, has a really smooth road surface. The roads in the Pyrenees tend to be much less so.

I have read in a couple of places that it may not be steep enough ( like the Alps are) to really split the elite group that will take lead up the mountain. Basically, it would be simply the top 10 hanging together.

I thought I would ask here to get opinions on this and specifically predictions as to if it will sort out if Lance and others can hang with Contador.

I am hoping Contador does try to attack hard since he will be in Spain.

It is steep enough to crack Chancellara. A split between Lance and AC is what everybody is waiting to find out. It's a mountain top finish, so there's potential for large gaps. Should be great, can't wait.

No getting around it, this final climb, regardless of it's relative steepness, sucks. Should be awesome!

I have read in a couple of places that it may not be steep enough ( like the Alps are) to really split the elite group that will take lead up the mountain. Basically, it would be simply the top 10 hanging together.

I thought I would ask here to get opinions on this and specifically predictions as to if it will sort out if Lance and others can hang with Contador.

I am hoping Contador does try to attack hard since he will be in Andorra - another nation that borders Spain.

fify. :D

At the speed it will take to win the stage, the steepness will matter. I don't foresee 25 guys sprinting in the last 50 meters to be separated only by position.

The stage looks brutal to me because of it's length and nearly constant climbing. I believe the peleton will split into at least two main groups by the midpoint of the race. Then it will get further strung out on the last climb. Sastre and Evans may try to attack on the last climb if they are up to it. But Sastre is probably the only one who could get much time on anyone. However, I think that it is more smart to just ride at least three or four mountain stages and let natural attrition even out the field. Evans and Sastre will probably be up into the top 10 after 2-3 mountain stages without doing anything special.

But look, Astana has six guys that can drive the pace of this stage fast enough to bury all but about 6-8 riders. So I don't even think that they need to try and win this stage. Astana will just set a blistering pace that few can follow and then depending on where riders are at in the last 10 kilometers of the race they will either hold it there or send AC,LA and LL up the last part of the climb to further distance themselves from the field.

The stage looks brutal to me because of it's length and nearly constant climbing. I believe the peleton will split into at least two main groups by the midpoint of the race. Then it will get further strung out on the last climb. Sastre and Evans may try to attack on the last climb if they are up to it. But Sastre is probably the only one who could get much time on anyone. However, I think that it is more smart to just ride at least three or four mountain stages and let natural attrition even out the field. Evans and Sastre will probably be up into the top 10 after 2-3 mountain stages without doing anything special.

But look, Astana has six guys that can drive the pace of this stage fast enough to bury all but about 6-8 riders. So I don't even think that they need to try and win this stage. Astana will just set a blistering pace that few can follow and then depending on where riders are at in the last 10 kilometers of the race they will either hold it there or send AC,LA and LL up the last part of the climb to further distance themselves from the field.

Reasonable thoughts here, but the strategy you suggest for Astana, just doesn't sound like what Bruyneel would do... Armstrong possibly, but not Bruyneel. Someone from Astana is going to try to get up the road ahead of the rest - whether in an early break, or at some point before the last climb starts.

I have read in a couple of places that it may not be steep enough ( like the Alps are) to really split the elite group .

A lot of pros will tell you that overall the Pyrenees has harder climbing than the Alps. Don't discount it.

Well it sounds like most think the uphill finish is enought to separate the GC from the rest. I am hoping it also gives us a good indication of who top 5 really are and can Lance still hang with younger bucks.
If not have to wait till last week of the tour.

I hope Linus Gerdemann makes the selection. That should make it interesting.

Richard

Don't count on LL going off the front. He has stated before the Pyrenees give him trouble.

Richard

What kind of sadist puts two sprints on the slopes of an HC climb? :eek:

Definitely will be fireworks here.

I'd say idiot, not sadist.

Oh wait, are there time bonuses for sprint points placing this year? That is the only they could be important.

Oh wait there is one small chance. A KOM type dropping everyoen early and getting an extra 10 seconds. Seems a long shot to waste 2 sprint points on.

I'd say idiot, not sadist.

Oh wait, are there time bonuses for sprint points placing this year? That is the only they could be important.

Oh wait there is one small chance. A KOM type dropping everyoen early and getting an extra 10 seconds. Seems a long shot to waste 2 sprint points on.

No time bonuses - period. Six sprint points per sprint.

edit - from the official race rules:

• pour chaque sprint intermédiaire, les
3 premiers coureurs classés reçoivent
respectivement 6, 4 et 2 points.

Don't count on LL going off the front. He has stated before the Pyrenees give him trouble.

Richard

I was more worried of LL going off the back than the front

Throwing this out there... with 4 Astana riders in the top 5 and preping to dominate, it sounds like Lotto, Saxo, Garmin, Columbia, etc, or a combination of either, need to band together.

No time bonuses - period. Six sprint points per sprint.

edit - from the official race rules:

• pour chaque sprint intermédiaire, les
3 premiers coureurs classés reçoivent
respectivement 6, 4 et 2 points.

French to English, if it can be of use...
• for each intermediate sprint, the first 3 riders
across the line will receive 6, 4, and 2 points respectively.

Evans and Sastre working together? They have to try something. I can see A Schleck chipping in too to break Armstrong. Menchov will go off the front. Gesink to work with him? Contador strolls, loses no time or energy.

Unfortunately, Gesink is out of the Tour with a broken wrist after yesterday's crash. I'm going with Andy Schleck to take the stage!

Lets not forget that this is the first day into the mountains and legs dont always respond after 6 flat stages. So gaps may be bigger on those that dont adjust to the tilt upward.

How about the Euskaltel boys, shouldnt this be a day for them to go out and put the bright orange in a break away?

I think with the long run outs on the following 2 stages after the mountains i think Astana will look to put time into everyone. I dont think the next 2 days present nearly as much of an opportunity as stage 7 does. I would be VERY surprised if Contador doesnt have yellow tommorow night....probably for the rest of the TdF from that point on. Then LA, LL and Kloden for a podium spot.

Reasonable thoughts here, but the strategy you suggest for Astana, just doesn't sound like what Bruyneel would do... Armstrong possibly, but not Bruyneel. Someone from Astana is going to try to get up the road ahead of the rest - whether in an early break, or at some point before the last climb starts.

You are probably right. I think it is too early in the race to try the tactic that I mentioned. The interesting thing is that both Popo and Zubeldia though not considered GC contenders are currently in a position that sending one or both of them on a break would amount to an attack on all the other important GC riders. And they are both good climbers.

If Zubeldia went on a break and could hold it off till the last couple of kilometers it might blow up any team tactics that might exist for some GC hopeful teams. Sastre, Evans, the Schleck brothers would be forced to chase. Or lose even more time.

If Zubeldia went on a break and could hold it off till the last couple of kilometers it might blow up any team tactics that might exist for some GC hopeful teams. Sastre, Evans, the Schleck brothers would be forced to chase. Or lose even more time.

Not sure I follow... if Zubeldia is not a GC contender, why would Sastre, Schleckx2, Evans, and Co chase him?

Not sure I follow... if Zubeldia is not a GC contender, why would Sastre, Schleckx2, Evans, and Co chase him?

Two words: Pereiro, 2006.

Difference is, Zubeldia would be a lot more difficult to make time up on.

Two words: Pereiro, 2006.

Difference is, Zubeldia would be a lot more difficult to make time up on.

I wasn't watching the TdF back then. :(

I do know that Pereiro came in 2nd, and then won after disqualification from Rasmussen, but I don't have the context as to how he got to 2nd, which is what I think you're referring to...

EDIT: Nope, I'm wrong; 2007 was Rasmussen. 2006 was Landis.

I thought it would easier for them to make up time on Zubeldia seeing as he's not as strong as the other 4 Astana in the Top 5?
Forgive my newbieness on these things... :(

HI....

tomorrow astana will start doing the train trick... all of the astana domestiques will start the race to a high pace... then the peloton will start segregating and people will start to die little by little. Around the last climb only the people who really have chances in the mountains will stand in that group.

Bye bye cancelara, but since he have been doing so well wonder if he give us a surprise but i doubt it. Soler... anybody remember him? Soler might be there in the front group. LL ?? he will have a crappy day tomorrow. I see Lance showing all his genius tomorrow AGAIN! (and i dont like him) The shleck guys? who knows... AC and Sastre??? Who knows... both of them are like moody type of racers...

Cadel needs a good wheel tomorrow... Kloden is his wheel tomorrow.. Why? Kloden and evans have similar styles, ride to anybody elses wheel means suicide for evans.

Good day to watch tomorrow :)

Cya

I wasn't watching the TdF back then. :(

I do know that Pereiro came in 2nd, and then won after disqualification from Rasmussen, but I don't have the context as to how he got to 2nd, which is what I think you're referring to...

EDIT: Nope, I'm wrong; 2007 was Rasmussen. 2006 was Landis.

I thought it would easier for them to make up time on Zubeldia seeing as he's not as strong as the other 4 Astana in the Top 5?
Forgive my newbieness on these things... :(

You gotta love someone who apologizes for newbie-ness...even though we all stand in the same shoes more often than we care to admit! :D

It's all good....the end result is that we watch the Tour, cheer for our favorites and have a good time doing it! :thumb:

You gotta love someone who apologizes for newbie-ness...even though we all stand in the same shoes more often than we care to admit! :D

It's all good....the end result is that we watch the Tour, cheer for our favorites and have a good time doing it! :thumb:

Thanks Suzie! :thumb:

It certainly is fun to watch, and once you start clueing in on the strategy, even more fun!

HI....

tomorrow astana will start doing the train trick... all of the astana domestiques will start the race to a high pace... then the peloton will start segregating and people will start to die little by little. Around the last climb only the people who really have chances in the mountains will stand in that group.

Bye bye cancelara, but since he have been doing so well wonder if he give us a surprise but i doubt it. Soler... anybody remember him? Soler might be there in the front group. LL ?? he will have a crappy day tomorrow. I see Lance showing all his genius tomorrow AGAIN! (and i dont like him) The shleck guys? who knows... AC and Sastre??? Who knows... both of them are like moody type of racers...

Cadel needs a good wheel tomorrow... Kloden is his wheel tomorrow.. Why? Kloden and evans have similar styles, ride to anybody elses wheel means suicide for evans.

Good day to watch tomorrow :)

Cya

yeah, evans, kloden, menchov & levi are all at the same climbing level-consistently. 5 bucks says all four finish
within 15 seconds of each other.

How much time does Lance give away to Contador tommorow? Im going with 25-35 seconds.

I'm still sticking my neck out and saying that Astana doesn't want to defend the jersey this early. I have been wrong before....many times, and this will probably add to the list!

... Soler... anybody remember him? Soler might be there in the front group. ...

Since we're talking about guys who aren't in the race, I'm thinking Basso, DiLuca and Ricco will all be tough to drop. :thumb: :innocent:

Definitely agree this will be a great stage to watch.

I think Pelizotti will be in the mix with his Liquigas compadres, Nibali and Kreuziger.

Astana in yellow tomorrow night. Question is, Lance or Alberto?

Unfortunately, Gesink is out of the Tour with a broken wrist after yesterday's crash. I'm going with Andy Schleck to take the stage!

+1!
He's on my roster... he has to win this stage! the first of many, of course! :)

I should have re-thought my pick. I still hope it's Andy Schleck but I think he'll be too well marked. Kreuziger might have been a better dark horse choice, since I often don't like going with the obvious favorite. It is an "Hors Categorie" climb so anything can happen!