Professional Cycling For the Fans - TdF Stage 9 - Sunday July 12 - 160 km - Saint-Gaudens → Tarbes

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I am going :)

I see a shattered peloton on the lower slopes of the climb of the Tourmalet. Kohl and Ricco will ride away with this one. :p

er... make that a couple Astana riders and a very few others team up to outlast what is called "the peloton" to the finish.

70 kilometers mostly downhill from the top of the tourmalet to the finish. will be tough to stay away that
long even for a strong, motivated group. could definitely see lance...er...astana sending a kloden, levi,
popo or zubeldia ahead on the tourmalet slopes to "test' the legs & resolve of the gc contenders who are
1.5--3 minutes back (menchov, evans, sastre, schlecks) though. with the respective tt & climbing abilities
of menchov & evans, this would seem, on paper, to be a stage in which they could conceivably power
away and gain 30 seconds-2 minutes back. team astana & lance seem to be micro-managing every
opportunity so it would benefit astana to send someone before any big attacks materialize. doing so
would demoralize evans & menchov (and others) further and leave them one less chance to get back in
the game. stage 7 to arcalis will help to clarify the requisite desperation of certain contenders and their
likely responses on this stage.

plus a rest day afterwards for those not used to attacking - menchov & evans :) - to recover if they do.

plus a rest day afterwards for those not used to attacking - menchov & evans :) - to recover if they do.

I think the rest day makes a huge difference. A select group of riders can give a huge effort to stay away. If things do not regroup before the start of the final climb it could be multiple small groups for the last 70 KMs and a huge sorting out. Provided some GC contender is willing to take a risk at the front.

I suspect there will be an epic battle tomorrow. We will see if LA can hang with AC. AC will not be able to stand the thought of LA trailing him by a few seconds for a week. The leadership on Astana will be clear by the end of the stage.

Richard

Have any of you been paying attention to The Tour for the last 20 years or more? Tomorrow's stage will be just like almost every other mountain stage that has a long downhill/flat run to the finish...pretty boring. There will not be any "sorting out" amongst the real contenders as there is no way for anyone to get far enough ahead that they won't be reeled in after they go over the top of the final climb. Look for the GC to be relatively unchanged.

So you say no attacks on the Tourmelet? I disagree, but we will know tomorrow. Looks to me like a helper up the road stage, and a nice descent.

Richard


Have any of you been paying attention to The Tour for the last 20 years or more? Tomorrow's stage will be just like almost every other mountain stage that has a long downhill/flat run to the finish...pretty boring. There will not be any "sorting out" amongst the real contenders as there is no way for anyone to get far enough ahead that they won't be reeled in after they go over the top of the final climb. Look for the GC to be relatively unchanged.

More or less, yes. There may be small attacks to test the fitness of some and see if they can shake one or two guys but nothing will stick and all of the main contenders will finish together...and Nocintini will stay in yellow.

I see another move by Saxo Bank or possibly Garmin to try to force Astana to react, and to drop Nocintini. They would like to see Astana have to defend the yellow the rest of the way in.

If Millar has recovered sufficiently, I could see him going for a stage here. Bruseghin, Devolder, or possibly Arroyo might sneak out on break. (I'm batting pretty close to zero on these predictions, so I've got nothing to lose :lol:)

I think yellow changes tomorrow, and some GC contenders / pretenders crack and lose big time.

I have been known to be wrong however.

Richard

No guardrails and narrow roads on the descent from Tourmalet.

I'm praying for the safety of Frank Schleck and any Rabobank rider who might be in the breakaway.

Pray for team Bbox to they couldn't even handle the TTT in Montipellar.

Looks similar to today---ish. Anyone got the gradient deets?

http://i32.tinypic.com/6e0ozd.jpg

The problem is that there's like a 60km (wow?) descent into the finish. All the GC guys are marked. Given that, Cadel will probably try to be stupid again.

I'm gonna go with Confidis in the breakaway.

Tourmalet is pretty steep at the top. The last 5km are rather steep, and it is easy to crack and lose big chuncks of time.

Richard

You know Cadel is going to go for it.

























and fail....

http://i32.tinypic.com/6e0ozd.jpg

The problem is that there's like a 60km (wow?) descent into the finish. All the GC guys are marked. Given that, Cadel will probably try to be stupid again.

I'm gonna go with Confidis in the breakaway.

Oof.... Can you imagine climbing that??? Oh man.

Anywho, yeah, I think Evans will go for it again, maybe Sastre will remember he's in a race and do something? Why not! Better than sitting around letting Astana control ANOTHER race.

Please don't put Sastre in the same class as Cadel. Sastre actually has a brain and will save it for Ventoux.:thumb:

Please don't put Sastre in the same class as Cadel. Sastre actually has a brain and will save it for Ventoux.:thumb:

Look, Sastre has said he's just enjoying the Tour, it's like he's a tourist watching the show from the peloton! I don't know, he's just playing the quiet statesman letting everyone spend 2 weeks blowing themselves out, only to get it all in the last week?

Sastre is well aware that GC hopeful teammates will not help him beat their own team. There really isn't much hay to be made in the last two stages and tomorrow. He knows the Alps are the key.

Richard

Look, Sastre has said he's just enjoying the Tour, it's like he's a tourist watching the show from the peloton! I don't know, he's just playing the quiet statesman letting everyone spend 2 weeks blowing themselves out, only to get it all in the last week?

I think that's what he did last year, at least I remember him breaking away on Alpe d'Huez, but not sure how quiet he was in the mountain stages prior to that.

To me this looks like the second or third most brutal stage behind Mount Ventoux.

I'm going with another breakaway of non-important riders.
I have to hope against hope that my favorite Euskaltel rider is somehow going to redeem himself and get in this break.
Amets Txurruka will be part of it, but the stage will go to Cyril Dessel. I can't be wrong 2 days in a row....can I? :lol:

I'm going with another breakaway of non-important riders.
I have to hope against hope that my favorite Euskaltel rider is somehow going to redeem himself and get in this break.
Amets Txurruka will be part of it, but the stage will go to Cyril Dessel. I can't be wrong 2 days in a row....can I? :lol:

I've been choosing horribly lately so I'm piggy-backing on SG's choice. :thumb:

Euskaltel have been quiet this year haven't they ... or is it just old age that has me remembering every front group (in the mountains) having one or two of those orange jersies in it in previous years.

Richard

i just don't under the race organizers reasoning behind a long 70km downhill run to the finish... it just completely negates all the excitement of all out efforts to the summit, the massive reshuffling of the GC, and all the intense suffering that makes these mountain stages so fun to watch. i also have a bad feeling that this stage is going to be relatively tame with no dramatic change in GC b/c the really great climbers are not going to want to burn all their energy to gain a couple minutes at the top, only to lose it all back on the run into town. such a waste of an epic climb but i hope that i am proven wrong.

i just don't under the race organizers reasoning behind a long 70km downhill run to the finish... it just completely negates all the excitement of all out efforts to the summit, the massive reshuffling of the GC, and all the intense suffering that makes these mountain stages so fun to watch. i also have a bad feeling that this stage is going to be relatively tame with no dramatic change in GC b/c the really great climbers are not going to want to burn all their energy to gain a couple minutes at the top, only to lose it all back on the run into town. such a waste of an epic climb but i hope that i am proven wrong.

I think they are trying to build up tension so it all happens in the final week. All I reckon it is doing is making the racing boring.

I think they are trying to build up tension so it all happens in the final week. All I reckon it is doing is making the racing boring.

It makes going for it a gamble. If the peloton is shattered at the start of the climb, a single rider, or a small group might be able to hold a two minute edge to the finish over another rider, or small group. A move like Contador's on stage 7, would definitely get swallowed up though. There are a bunch of ways this could play out, and we'll just have to wait a little more to see what becomes reality.

with the emergence of christian prudhomme as main dude for aso/tdf/whatever, the race route and
stages have gotten a little more creative since he took over for le blanc. fewer mountaintop finishes
means likely more action on those finishes. the route this year seems to be more balanced so that
more types of riders have a chance for a stage victory. there is no one discipline that can be said to dominate.
some tt'ing but not too much. some m-top finishes but not too many. some rolling/breakaway stages for the
all-rounders but not too many. some sprinters stages but not the entire first week/9 days
we were occasionally treated to in the last decade.

much like what lance & contador did the first week (and evans tried to do), those that steal 5 seconds here-
20 seconds there will likely be rewarded down the road. sure, ventoux will be a great equalizer
but if evans, the schleck bros, sastre, kreuziger, et al. keep losing little bits of time before stage 20,
they'll have to go merckx, landis, ocana, gaul or coppi and hang 4+ minutes on team astana to win/podium.
all that said, i think the racing would have been enhanced with bonuses available this year. it would
have enticed those with lesser teams to "go for it."

also, the tourmalet and the respective ski stations are rarely a mountain-top finish. for as many times as the
race has plowed over it, it is usually just a leg-breaker enroute to somewhere less spectacular-just like the galibier.
if the weather sucks though, we could get a monkey-wrench thrown in a la pantani vs ullrich in 1998.
a rider/riders such as luis leon sanchez could instantly catapult into viable contention. wouldn't that be slightly more
exciting than the astana grind???

Slept in today... looks like I didn't miss much. Pretty much the same as yesterday.

I was wrong about today. I was so wrong it may be a misdemeanor. Jeez thanks god I am not a betting man.

Richard

I think I got it a little right...


Looks similar to today---ish.

Some lumps with a long downhill finish.

;)

Did any GC guys try anything early???

Heanehl.... (sp?) ain't looking to pretty after that fall....

Yawn ... and not just because it's nearly midnight here.

Richard

Wish the summit wasn't so far from finish....

From TdF - "Twists In The Final Kilometer Today"

???

Anyone know what the detail route looks like at the very end?

Oh, I see, it U turns, then some zig zags through some roundabouts..

I've been choosing horribly lately so I'm piggy-backing on SG's choice. :thumb:

OMG, if you keep that up, you'll never get it right! :roflmao2:

Poor Andy.... a flat at 3+ km.

Damn Jens! Bringin' Andy back in a km!

Damn Jens! Bringin' Andy back in a km!

amazing

Another French dude pedaling his ass off! Good job!

Not terribly exciting in regards to the GC, however, the final sprint was good to watch. A bit of excitement thrown in with Andy's flat. All eyes on V?

Damn Jens! Bringin' Andy back in a km!

I think that was my favorite rider in the stage. I like seeing his involvement in general.

In a break, then immediately playing domestique to get water, then pacing Schleck back in. A definite team player.

with the emergence of christian prudhomme as main dude for aso/tdf/whatever, the race route and
stages have gotten a little more creative since he took over for le blanc. fewer mountaintop finishes
means likely more action on those finishes. the route this year seems to be more balanced so that
more types of riders have a chance for a stage victory. there is no one discipline that can be said to dominate.
some tt'ing but not too much. some m-top finishes but not too many. some rolling/breakaway stages for the
all-rounders but not too many. some sprinters stages but not the entire first week/9 days
we were occasionally treated to in the last decade.

much like what lance & contador did the first week (and evans tried to do), those that steal 5 seconds here-
20 seconds there will likely be rewarded down the road. sure, ventoux will be a great equalizer
but if evans, the schleck bros, sastre, kreuziger, et al. keep losing little bits of time before stage 20,
they'll have to go merckx, landis, ocana, gaul or coppi and hang 4+ minutes on team astana to win/podium.
all that said, i think the racing would have been enhanced with bonuses available this year. it would
have enticed those with lesser teams to "go for it."

also, the tourmalet and the respective ski stations are rarely a mountain-top finish. for as many times as the
race has plowed over it, it is usually just a leg-breaker enroute to somewhere less spectacular-just like the galibier.
if the weather sucks though, we could get a monkey-wrench thrown in a la pantani vs ullrich in 1998.
a rider/riders such as luis leon sanchez could instantly catapult into viable contention. wouldn't that be slightly more
exciting than the astana grind???

Maybe a bonus is that the three mountaintop finishes are spread apart. So instead of say, two in a row, like we would sometimes see, where a single rider might dominate both -- form can change as the days pass in the Tour, mixing things up more for the GC. Indeed the lack of hard mountain stages makes that late Ventoux climb significantly more exciting, potentially -- instead of being raced after 4 other mountaintop finishes.
I would like to see more really hard mountain days, without mountaintop finishes. Like stage 19 ( http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-19 ) it looks agonizing. Better chances for breakaways and even GC contenders getting in a break, or GC contenders attacking at the 2nd last climb instead of the last. And a descent before the finish, making 'biking skills' very important compared to a mountaintop finish.

Or stages with a bunch of small climbs, great for breakaway battles. It seems kind of lame to put a monster like the Aspin+Tourmalet combo in the middle of an otherwise flat stage. Maybe it's a topographical issue, but the Giro seems to have better hilly (non high mountain) stages.

yawn

yawn


+1

Maybe a bonus is that the three mountaintop finishes are spread apart. So instead of say, two in a row, like we would sometimes see, where a single rider might dominate both -- form can change as the days pass in the Tour, mixing things up more for the GC. Indeed the lack of hard mountain stages makes that late Ventoux climb significantly more exciting, potentially -- instead of being raced after 4 other mountaintop finishes.
I would like to see more really hard mountain days, without mountaintop finishes. Like stage 19 ( http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-19 ) it looks agonizing. Better chances for breakaways and even GC contenders getting in a break, or GC contenders attacking at the 2nd last climb instead of the last. And a descent before the finish, making 'biking skills' very important compared to a mountaintop finish.

Or stages with a bunch of small climbs, great for breakaway battles. It seems kind of lame to put a monster like the Aspin+Tourmalet combo in the middle of an otherwise flat stage. Maybe it's a topographical issue, but the Giro seems to have better hilly (non high mountain) stages.


agreed...