Professional Cycling - TdF Stage 16 - Tuesday July 21 - 160 km - Martigny (Switz) → Bourg-Saint-Maurice

These are two huge Saint Bernards, but the next stage. :eek:

the midpoint of that descent off the second climb looks to be frightfully technical

I am going out on a limb so you guys can make fun of me. Big stage after rest day. Either Lance or Alberto will crack and lose all hope of a GC.

Richard

I am going out on a limb so you guys can make fun of me. Big stage after rest day. Either Lance or Alberto will crack and lose all hope of a GC.

Richard

Pick one. :twitchy:

I think Wiggins drops off here.

Don't know which one. Lance is old and wise. Alberto is young and full of pee and vinegar.

I don't see a major selection tomorrow although there may be some gaps. Someone like Cadel will attack Tuesday and one of the Astana boys will counter attack. Then it will be LA vs AC. I see the loser between AC and LA losing big time.

Richard

Maybe an outside contender attacking, and not really chased? Allowed to put themselves back within a minute or two of the overall? Ooga-booga, good call on that descent! Not really one that calls for staying in a group is it? A daredevil descender on his own could gain rather than lose time on it.
I think whether there are attacks by GC contenders on the GRAND St Bernard will make a big difference how the stage plays out. They might ride it cool and comfortable, with plenty of energy to ward off late attacks... but if things get strung out early, it could be very interesting!

Wouldn't put it past Pelizotti to pull something here.

Wouldn't put it past Pelizotti to pull something here.

i sure hope so. could use the points in the bf tdf contest. pellizotti brings
up an interesting point with the two liquigas riders-nibali & kreuziger-high
up on the gc. at what point does he go for the kom points and/or remain
up the road for "help" on the last climb? how long does he "shepherd'
both nibali & kreuziger on the earlier climbs/lower slopes? if they both crack
during the cerebus stages of 15/16/17, he's the likely kom at tour's end. his
climbing legs seem surprisingly good so i think he'll be out in front more
often than not until ventoux and give his two teammates "tough love." he'll
be there if they can bridge up or stay with the contenders deep into the tour.

wouldn't put it past pelizotti to pull something here.

+1 :)

Anyone got the Gradients?

And here's a repost of overalls at the start.....

1. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 63h 17' 56"
2. ARMSTRONG Lance 22 ASTANA 63h 19' 33" + 01' 37"
3. WIGGINS Bradley 58 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 63h 19' 42" + 01' 46"
4. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 63h 20' 13" + 02' 17"
5. SCHLECK Andy 31 TEAM SAXO BANK 63h 20' 22" + 02' 26"
6. NOCENTINI Rinaldo 87 AG2R LA MONDIALE 63h 20' 26" + 02' 30"
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 95 LIQUIGAS 63h 20' 47" + 02' 51"
8. MARTIN Tony 76 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 63h 21' 03" + 03' 07"
9. LE MEVEL Christophe 106 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 63h 21' 05" + 03' 09"
10. SCHLECK Frank 36 TEAM SAXO BANK 63h 21' 21" + 03' 25"
11. SASTRE Carlos 1 CERVELO TEST TEAM 63h 21' 48" + 03' 52"
12. VANDE VELDE Christian 51 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 63h 21' 55" + 03' 59"
13. HINCAPIE George 74 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 63h 22' 01" + 04' 05"
14. EVANS Cadel 11 SILENCE - LOTTO 63h 22' 23" + 04' 27"
15. MONFORT Maxime 77 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 63h 22' 34" + 04' 38"
16. KREUZIGER Roman 93 LIQUIGAS 63h 22' 36" + 04' 40"
17. KIRCHEN Kim 75 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 63h 23' 01" + 05' 05"
18. SANCHEZ Luis-Leon 118 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 63h 23' 23" + 05' 27"
19. ASTARLOZA Mikel 61 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 63h 23' 33" + 05' 37"
20. KARPETS Vladimir 161 TEAM KATUSHA 63h 23' 52" + 05' 56"
21. CASAR Sandy 101 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 63h 24' 29" + 06' 33"
22. FEILLU Brice 174 AGRITUBEL 63h 25' 00" + 07' 04"
23. VELITS Peter 187 TEAM MILRAM 63h 25' 54" + 07' 58"
24. GERDEMANN Linus 181 TEAM MILRAM 63h 26' 16" + 08' 20"
25. BOTCHAROV Alexandre 162 TEAM KATUSHA 63h 26' 33" + 08' 37"
26. SORENSEN Nicki 38 TEAM SAXO BANK 63h 26' 38" + 08' 42"
27. GOUBERT Stephane 85 AG2R LA MONDIALE 63h 27' 58" + 10' 02"
28. ZUBELDIA Haimar 29 ASTANA 63h 28' 26" + 10' 30"


Andy, Wiggins, et al, rest them weary legs!!!!

One of two things happens:

Either the GC contenders all ride relaxed and jusr mark one another through this stage;

or

Contador drops the hammer and puts in massive time on the rest of the field.

or

Contador drops the hammer and puts in massive time on the rest of the field.

I don't see that happening at all; there's no reason for Contador to risk much on the second descent.

Andy's gonna keep the pressure on, try to gain some time, but I'm not sure how he can.... He'd have to fly up climb two and never let up on the 30km down?

Anyone know about Contador's descending vs. Schleck or others?

So - will the winner of this stage get a set of twin St. Bernards? ;)

Andy's gonna keep the pressure on, try to gain some time, but I'm not sure how he can.... He'd have to fly up climb two and never let up on the 30km down?

Anyone know about Contador's descending vs. Schleck or others?

The Astana and Liquigas guys have good reputations as descenders.

Wonder what Evans/Sastre will try, desperate times call for desperate somethin'-somethin'...

So - will the winner of this stage get a set of twin St. Bernards? ;)

Or two podium girls. :innocent:

Sastre will fly into yellow!

Andy's gonna keep the pressure on, try to gain some time, but I'm not sure how he can.... He'd have to fly up climb two and never let up on the 30km down?

Anyone know about Contador's descending vs. Schleck or others?

Frank Schleck can barely get himself down the mountain in one piece (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTL3dMRXs3E). Andy is better, but I wouldn't call it a strength. Contador and Kloden are both capable bike handlers, so is Nibali. If any of those 3 guys cross the last climb together, I could see them opening up 20-30 seconds or so on the descent.

Ouch... so Schleck, et al, need to drop Contador by a good chunk of time by that last summit or forget it. Tough order.

I found this awesome web-site that is aggregating Tweets from the TDF. Check it out!!

http://twackle.com/More-Sports/Tour-de-France

I see this to be like the Tourmalet stage. Everyone will be back together after the last climb and no time will be changed unless Armstrong cracks and can't catch back on.

Looks pretty steep, I just hope for some interesting cracking and interesting attacking. Maybe a team will wake up with some great legs (besides Astana) and drive a disgusting peloton train up both climbs and just hurt everyone and everything?

Not that it will happen, but....

I would like to see another Voigt/Cancellara led pain fest.

I found this awesome web-site that is aggregating Tweets from the TDF. Check it out!!

http://twackle.com/More-Sports/Tour-de-France

spam

I would like to see another Voigt/Cancellara led pain fest.

Add Sorensen to that and make them bleed.

Add Sorensen to that and make them bleed.

Which one?

Which one?

Thinking... both?

8 hours, 15 minutes until coverage begins. :D

were does coverage start that early?

6:30 eastern Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here we go........ Here's to a good race!

I would like to see another Voigt/Cancellara led pain fest.

this is what you want, this is what you get.

Watching

Looks like it could be a more interesting stage than I expected, seems like all the GC contenders are preparing for a big attack on the second mountain.

Except for Astana, it has an "every man for himself" kinda feel early on, eh?

incorrect.

Looks like Astana is riding like they should. I don't understand your comment.

Richard


Except for Astana, it has an "every man for himself" kinda feel early on, eh?

Andy dangling near the back?

Richard

I don't think that means much (yet), he's still in the yellow jersey-group and Astana is going a very consistent speed. There's always a chance he didn't get out of the rest day well though.

Astana is making this a bit boring. Nobody wants to make any moves because they know they'll get shut down right away.

Looks like Astana is riding like they should. I don't understand your comment.

Richard
I agree with you, Astana is riding solid and strong as a team, which gave the impression, before the break got organized, of a bunch of scattered riders from other teams trying to make something happen. Of course, it all settled in...

Too early in the stage to make a move.

Richard


Astana is making this a bit boring. Nobody wants to make any moves because they know they'll get shut down right away.

I got $600 for my scrap gold!!

Astana is making this a bit boring. Nobody wants to make any moves because they know they'll get shut down right away.

:twitchy:

pellizotti and karpets are otf.

:twitchy:

pellizotti and karpets are otf.

Indeed but they're both relatively far behind, and aren't a threat on later stages anyway. Even if Karpets could get 5+ minutes (doubtful) he wouldn't keep the yellow in the end.

Indeed but they're both relatively far behind, and aren't a threat on later stages anyway. Even if Karpets could get 5+ minutes (doubtful) he wouldn't keep the yellow in the end.

none of the favorites are going to attack so early in the stage. that would be stupid.

none of the favorites are going to attack so early in the stage. that would be stupid.

Because Astana will reel them back in ;)

Because Astana will reel them back in ;)

point missed.

point missed.

No, I get it. Contador is the favorite and he doesn't need to attack early. Nobody else will attack because so many strong riders are covering Contador. The only likely scenario is that the race will be fairly boring until the very end, because of Astana, as I said initially. If you want to look at it differently you could blame the other teams for being too weak... :innocent: