Professional Cycling - TdF Stage 18 - Thursday July 23 - 40 km - ITT Annecy

looks open & windy. a powerful tt rider such as grabsch, kloden, cancellara, cadel, menchov, levi,
armstrong or even hincapie should win here.

So can Lance gain time on Contador here or has his TT diminished enough that Contador and he are about the same. I know Contador beat him by 18 seconds on a short hilly TT but im wondering how this will suit each riders strengths.

looks open & windy. a powerful tt rider such as grabsch, kloden, cancellara, cadel, menchov, levi,
armstrong or even hincapie should win here.

Surrounded by mountains. Not so open, and might, or might not be windy.

why is there a feed zone? The cars will take 10 seconds to pass one packet of carb gel, and another 10 seconds to pass a handy napkin??

USAZorro - thanks for doing these.

Your header date is wrong for this stage - Thurs is the 23rd, not the 24th.

For this stage....

1. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 72h 27' 09"
2. SCHLECK Andy 31 TEAM SAXO BANK 72h 29' 35" + 02' 26"
3. SCHLECK Frank 36 TEAM SAXO BANK 72h 30' 34" + 03' 25"
4. ARMSTRONG Lance 22 ASTANA 72h 31' 04" + 03' 55"
5. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 72h 31' 53" + 04' 44"
6. WIGGINS Bradley 58 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 72h 32' 02" + 04' 53"
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 95 LIQUIGAS 72h 32' 18" + 05' 09"
8. VANDE VELDE Christian 51 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 72h 35' 17" + 08' 08"
9. LE MEVEL Christophe 106 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 72h 36' 28" + 09' 19"
10. ASTARLOZA Mikel 61 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 72h 37' 59" + 10' 50"
11. KREUZIGER Roman 93 LIQUIGAS 72h 38' 01" + 10' 52"
12. NOCENTINI Rinaldo 87 AG2R LA MONDIALE 72h 38' 47" + 11' 38"
13. SASTRE Carlos 1 CERVELO TEST TEAM 72h 38' 48" + 11' 39"
14. CASAR Sandy 101 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 72h 39' 01" + 11' 52"
15. KARPETS Vladimir 161 TEAM KATUSHA 72h 39' 17" + 12' 08"
16. GOUBERT Stephane 85 AG2R LA MONDIALE 72h 42' 38" + 15' 29"
17. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 17 SILENCE - LOTTO 72h 44' 32" + 17' 23"
18. BOTCHAROV Alexandre 162 TEAM KATUSHA 72h 46' 29" + 19' 20"

***. No. Name Nat. Team Time Gap
1 021 CONTADOR, Alberto ESP AST 72:27:09 00:00:00
2 031 SCHLECK, Andy LUX SAX 72:29:35 00:02:26
3 036 SCHLECK, Frank LUX SAX 72:30:34 00:03:25
4 022 ARMSTRONG, Lance USA AST 72:31:04 00:03:55
5 023 KLÖDEN, Andréas GER AST 72:31:53 00:04:44
6 058 WIGGINS, Bradley GBR GRM 72:32:02 00:04:53
7 095 NIBALI, Vincenzo ITA LIQ 72:32:18 00:05:09
8 051 VANDE VELDE, Christian USA GRM 72:35:17 00:08:08
9 106 LE MEVEL, Christophe FRA FDJ 72:36:28 00:09:19
10 061 ASTARLOZA, Mikel ESP EUS 72:37:59 00:10:50
11 093 KREUZIGER, Roman CZE LIQ 72:38:01 00:10:52
12 087 NOCENTINI, Rinaldo ITA ALM 72:38:47 00:11:38
13 001 SASTRE, Carlos ESP CTT 72:38:48 00:11:39

Alright Schleck boys.... get your massage, get some sleep, and take that happy feeling from today's win with you up to the ramp tomorrow and pedal until you think you might die, then pedal some more!!! Gonna take everything they got, and then some, tomorrow.

Lance needs a minute and a half to take second. He'll most likely best Frank Schleck, and will probably real in enough time on Andy to take it.

Here's a math man's predictions.*

Stage 18 is 2.61x longer than stage 1. If all the GC leaders duplicate their average pace from stage 1, here are the results.**

Contador 51:02
Wiggins +0:50
Kloden +0:57
Nibali +1:37
Armstrong +1:44
A. Schleck +2:37
F. Schleck +4:11

The GC after these results is:

Contador
A. Schleck +5:03
Armstrong +5:39
Kloden +5:41
Wiggins +5:43
Nibali +6:46
F. Schleck +7:35

*The numbers in this post are for entertainment only and do not predict the future. The course is different, the emotions are different, and the Schlecks' are running out of spinach.

**Cancellara will kill them all, taking first place by 46 seconds.

I don't think he does. Three weeks take a lot out of a guy.

I predict

1) Wiggins
2)Armstrong
3) Kloden

Richard

[QUOTE=**Cancellara will kill them all, taking first place by 46 seconds.[/QUOTE]

Cancellera wins in my math universe. I'm a Kifer guy, after all, and not suited to speculate about races.

Quoting myself. I am important.

I have changed my mind. Armstrong puts it all in this stage. He take first. He puts 1 minute into Alberto, 2 in Andy, and 3 in Frank.

Richard


I don't think he does. Three weeks take a lot out of a guy.

I predict

1) Wiggins
2)Armstrong
3) Kloden

Richard

No predictions from me. Too many emotions flying around, hoping that may override some of the physical limitations or play into a few calculation errors.

No predictions from me. Too many emotions flying around, hoping that may override some of the physical limitations or play into a few calculation errors.

Armstrong made a big effort today, so hopefully he can recover OK. Between today's stage, tomorrow and Ventoux on Saturday, a few of the top riders may crack.

I predict Armstrong will put time in on everyone ahead of him. Contador looked a little tired today.

Older cyclists have better stamina than younger people. Expect someone who's older than 30 to win.

I wouldn't bet against Armstrong or Wiggins here.

My bold prediction? Carlos Sastre falls even farther behind.

Older cyclists have better stamina than younger people. Expect someone who's older than 30 to win.

Older people recover slower though... I know, I'm one of them. Ugh.

I think Lance will be in 2nd place tommorow and Kloden will be in 3rd.

By enough to hold on to it in stage 20?????

I wouldn't bet against Armstrong or Wiggins here.

My bold prediction? Carlos Sastre falls even farther behind.

:lol:

My prediction for the top three:

1. Contador
2. Nibali
3. Armstrong

USAZorro - thanks for doing these.

Your header date is wrong for this stage - Thurs is the 23rd, not the 24th.

Got it. Thanks.

I hoping Fabian will lay down the law again. I think Frank will get bumped from the podium, and Andy will have a couple people breathing down his neck.

Another fun day, to be sure... For Schlecks, they get to go 3rd and 2nd from last, right? So they'll have their guys yelling the times to beat in their ears to try to keep 2nd and 3rd. A tough order, it seems, for the Schlecks, but any little bit helps!

I hoping Fabian will lay down the law again.

I bet he will. DZ hasn't been riding too bad the last couple days. He might be a dark horse.

perfect course for Cancellara. i think 30 seconds.

you gotta love Cancellara he is such a great TT rider.

Will Kloden have anything in the tank to recoup the time he lost to the Schlecks on stage 17?

Will Kloden have anything in the tank to recoup the time he lost to the Schlecks on stage 17?

yes, he is german :-) Kloden is awesome

All I know is I won't be getting up early to watch an ITT

Wiggins
Kloden
Cancellara
Vande Velde
Contador

-Menchov will have the best time at the first few checkpoints, but another spill (or two) will take him out of the top ten.

Wiggins will leapfrog Kloden in the standings, being just 9 seconds behind. The day will end with:
Contador
Armstrong
A.Schleck
Wiggins
Kloden

Cancellara for the stage win.

I bet he will. DZ hasn't been riding too bad the last couple days. He might be a dark horse.

he should be well-rested :D.

ed rader

All I know is I won't be getting up early to watch an ITT

Coverage doesn't start until 8:30. :innocent:

I think Lance will move up to a close 3rd. Wiggins vs Kloden will be a good fight. I don't think either of them will be at their best though because of the efforts the past three days.

Will Contador catch both Andy and Frank on the road? That would be something to see.

Lance needs a minute and a half to take second. He'll most likely best Frank Schleck, and will probably real in enough time on Andy to take it.

He also needs to manage to lose less than a minute to Klöden and Wiggins to stay on the podium.

I'd wager my house on Cancellara to win this.

don't know if i'd bet your house on cancellara winning it. i don't recall him
winning any tt's in the last week of a grand tour. don't know how fresh he'll
be after hauling himself over the alps. were it the first week of the tour, i'd
definitely bet your house on him winning it.:p

Last year he was only beaten by Schumacher who was later busted for doping during the Tour, with a decent gap to the third place finisher if I remember correctly.

But to be honest, I'd rather wager your house than mine too, anything could happen. ;)

oops, forgot that cancellara came in 2nd on last year's final tt on stage
20 tdf. also forgot that vandevelde put in a great performance as well.
this year's is a little shorter and less elevation gain.

yes, anything can happen. i'm not seeing how the race this year is so
boring to some. you can make a case for any one of 15 or so quality riders
winning the tt today. a couple will hold steady, a couple will drop out of
contention and a few may jump back into the top 5. ventoux will be
a blast. plenty of drama this year with the armstrong/contador/johan/kloden/
astana saga, cavendish vs. hushovd bitterness, columbia vs. garmin ditto,
disrespecting of sastre and the white jersey competition.

Unfortunately, the Schleck brothers are pure climbers. They are just awful at the time trials, especially against the top contenders of the Tour. I expect Armstrong to jump back up to 3rd, or even 2nd if Andy has a bad day. And it's entirely possible after both he and Frank really put themselves at the limit on yesterday's stage.

looks like bad weather today??

Already 27 riders through..

Very good ride by Ignatiev at 48:46, but beaten by Cancellara at 48:34, this will be the time to beat imo.

Yep!

Dave Zabriskie's TT bike... Damn, that's some tackiness right there..... "Gawd bless the Yoo... Esss... Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!"

Uarrgh. TT bikes bring out the worst in people. I wonder what bikesnobNYC would say about that if he saw it in the street.

Wiggins
Kloden
Cancellara
Vande Velde
Contador

-Menchov will have the best time at the first few checkpoints, but another spill (or two) will take him out of the top ten.

menchov won't even try. it's going to be a 'rest day' for him.

Uarrgh. TT bikes bring out the worst in people. I wonder what bikesnobNYC would say about that if he saw it in the street.

lol! Lone Wolf would love it, though!

Looks like the weather held up nice.... any word on wind conditions?