Professional Cycling For the Fans - OK, Astana Team Tactics, Lets take a stab and their complicated situation

Astana's lack of clarification with regard to leadership or GC contention isn't confusing at all. Right now they (Astana) have 5 riders in the top 7. As long as they leave things vague, every team with a hope at GC has to cover any of those 5 that heads up the road. It gives Astana absolutely no advantage to declare their favorite and every reason to play any team agreements tight to their chest. Furthermore, they may be undecided themselves. No doubt that AC, LA and LL would all like to win but it's a long tour and a lot can happen. It pays heavy odds for them to hedge their bets until they see if anything befalls any of those three. Best to keep them all at the front of GC for now. Or, as long as they can. The mountains will decide. I'll just be amazed if we get to see the three musketeers ride to the base of Ventoux, look at each, nod, and decide the podium order on that last climb.

Thats makes sense. It really does make it hard for the poor teams trying to decide who to keep in check. I doubt any other team in the tour even has a prayer of a GC win unless there are some unexpected mishaps like lightening striking the entire Astana team.

I'm with you on the Mont Ventoux thought. If two or more Astana riders are still a threat by the time the peleton reaches the start of the climb, the tough decision could be the other teams': who to chase, and who to let go. They can't chase down everyone, all the time.

Of course, if the other teams know Astana is committed to win with Contador, or committed to win with Armstrong, this doesn't work anymore, as the other teams will know exactly who they have to keep in their sights. But as long as Astana is flexible...it would be the catbird seat.

Umm,...Ventoux is the last climb of stage 20 this year. If the Astana boys are still together then, chances are no one else matters. If you're looking for the early opportunities then Col-de-serra-seca and the entire last 30 km of stage 7 to Andorre Arcalis.

Don't expect to see a baby blue astana train unless AC builds a sizable lead. Otherwise, it'll be 2-3 groups of 2-4 riders constantly circulating with the peleton. Thereby, ensuring that there's always an Astana GC contender with support, near the front to go with any efforts that try. To form up the team would mean they a) expend a lot of energy on the front or b) become vulnerable if they circulate out. If AC goes with a couple efforts, which the field wouldn't allow, then the train would come into effect. Only if LA starts politicing his way into a couple of those efforts will you see AC throw a wobbly. And that's the only real implossion threat besides unforeseens. Of course once they start climbing, we'll see who has "it".

I predict a Henault/LeMond type feud.

Only one rider can win and there is no way Armstrong will help Contador if it hurts his chances of winning.

Armstrong likely sees himself as the leader and Contador, being the stronger rider, probably feels that he's the leader.

I predict a Henault/LeMond type feud.

Only one rider can win and there is no way Armstrong will help Contador if it hurts his chances of winning.

Armstrong likely sees himself as the leader and Contador, being the stronger rider, probably feels that he's the leader.

Would you believe that JB would sit down at the big dinner table with the guys and discuss that for the "anyone astana rider" threat to work, AC has to be willing to watch LA, LL or AK ride off for a couple minute lead? With 5 outta the top 7 they can't neutralize their great advantage by getting childish this early.

What better hope of becoming the "Greatest Grand Tour Rider of All Time" does AC have than staying on next years JB directed, LA owned team? Astana will be a joke with the other 37 y.o. Vino (coming back for my kids) at the helm. It makes great sense for him and LA to work together. LA won't be riding for that much longer (if even next year) and no-one has the talent at putting together incredibly strong teams that he and JB share. Add their assured ability to secure generous sponsorship and I see Team Whatever They Call It 2010 as AC's best option towards achieving the aforementioned title.

You've already seen AC sit in whilst LA rides off for :40. Unless a pattern evolves on other flat stages there won't be any wobbly's. The baby blues will ride toward the hills and at the first opportunity that non-team members are pushing the climbing pace beyond what one of them can maintain the other will go. If, after that AC is ahead I suspect we'll start to see more of a whole team approach, unless AC suffers a calamity or blows up. Only if LA really pulls a really selfish attack that is not initiated by or in response to others will we see animousity between AC and him.

You've already seen AC sit in whilst LA rides off for :40.

No one though really believes that was intentional.

Only the media thinks this is a dilemma. Astana and the other teams think this is an advantage.

Contador has been making some rather snippy remarks to the press...implying that by attempting to take the yellow jersey, Armstrong is violating some sort of "understanding" that the team has made. But, fans don't want any "agreements". Fans want the issue of "who is the best" settled by letting the results speak for themselves.

Contador has been making some rather snippy remarks to the press...implying that by attempting to take the yellow jersey, Armstrong is violating some sort of "understanding" that the team has made. But, fans don't want any "agreements". Fans want the issue of "who is the best" settled by letting the results speak for themselves.

Keep in mind that controversy sells papers. And right now, short of another (ghod forbid) doping scandal during the Tour, this is the best controversy the reporters have got. So they're going to play it like mad :deadhorse: and not let it drop, and if nothing is happening for the next couple of days, what's to stop them from coloring anything AC or LA or (better yet, since they can always be misquoted) anyone else on the team has to say?

This 'problem' might be there because AC and/or LA feels it's there. This 'problem' is DEFINITELY there because the press wants, nay, NEEDS, it to be there.

You notice, AC has been 'implying'. AC has not been SAYING. Until he does the latter, take the implications with a huge grain of salt, say about the size of Lot's wife.

I predict a Henault/LeMond type feud.

Only one rider can win and there is no way Armstrong will help Contador if it hurts his chances of winning.

Armstrong likely sees himself as the leader and Contador, being the stronger rider, probably feels that he's the leader.
+100. I don't think Lance has any intention of working for AC unless he gets jabbed in the eye by a spectator.

Merged threads of similar discussions on Astana and the Lance\AC brew ha ha.

This doesn't look too complicated to me.

The only way Armstrong rides for Contador is if his legs give out. If he willingly accepted Armstrong as a team mate for this race, Contador is a fool.

Yes although the trivia question concerns something that happened in the 1986 Tour so that's not the answer.

In the 1986 TdF Hinault won the mountains classification, second place on GC, three stages, and 5 days in yellow.

And he has 8 podium finishes in the Tour, Merckx only has 6. Come on Keith - we give up.

No I'm not going to tell you. Only because I know you (singular) have the answer. Not Podiums, The eternal second has Eddy on that. Ok a hint. You mentioned the last peice of the things Hinault won to complete the set!

EDIT: Hinault only has 7 podiums, tied for second. The record is 8, By Raymond Poulidor, 8 podiums and no wins. I doubt this will ever be matched (not the 8 per se, but the 8 with no wins).

I think all this leader stuff is funny. The best case scenario is for the top riders to be separated by a few seconds at the base of Ventoux and go mano a mano to the top for the win. Isn't that what everyone wants to see? How they get to that point will be fun to watch too but it all is just leading up to the last day (hopefully).

You lost me.
as in; Hinault was a much better rider than Lance will ever be or.....?


Again, you lost me, Lance made a PRESS RELEASE, even had a PRESS CONFERENCE stating that he is coming back to win.


Why all the riddles today?

1986 had a 31 year old Bernard Hinault. This Tour has a 37 year old Armstrong. While I consider Hinault a better rider the gap in their primes is far less than the gap between Hinault in 86 and Armstrong in 09. Hinault was capable of breaking away and forcing others to chase. Armstrong can do this once or twice, but will get burried afterwards.

As I said before Hinault wanted to win, but be able to defend his actions. If he jumped away forcing the rest to chase and they did not is that his fault? He could claim it was not. At one point he could have vastly improved his chances by no longer doing this, he had the lead, but attacked again. That day he lost time to Lemond. Of course if he had not been chased down he may well have won with the largest margin since 69.

In short in 86 Hinault was good enough to break the race to pieces. Armstrong is not stong enough to do that.

1986 had a 31 year old Bernard Hinault. This Tour has a 37 year old Armstrong. While I consider Hinault a better rider the gap in their primes is far less than the gap between Hinault in 86 and Armstrong in 09. Hinault was capable of breaking away and forcing others to chase. Armstrong can do this once or twice, but will get burried afterwards.

As I said before Hinault wanted to win, but be able to defend his actions. If he jumped away forcing the rest to chase and they did not is that his fault? He could claim it was not. At one point he could have vastly improved his chances by no longer doing this, he had the lead, but attacked again. That day he lost time to Lemond. Of course if he had not been chased down he may well have won with the largest margin since 69.

In short in 86 Hinault was good enough to break the race to pieces. Armstrong is not stong enough to do that.

Armstrong has never really endeavored to "break the race to pieces". His formula/pattern/game plan has been consistent throughout his victories. That suggests to me that Lance is the smarter/better racer when compaired to Hinault, who although a gret rider, risked and lost a tour for the glory of a potentially larger margin. All this talk about riders of yesteryear that would attack every stage to win and the like is agrandizing a strategy that is not only riskier and potentially week but also which has little chance of success in the current game.

You guys are all forgetting Zubeldia. I know it's unlikely that he will win or anything, but he's been a legit top 5 rider in the past for Euskaltel. The other teams will know this too - so in reality you have 5 Astana guys who have delivered a top 5 tour finish in the past.... that's a lot of riders to mark!

You guys are all forgetting Zubeldia. I know it's unlikely that he will win or anything, but he's been a legit top 5 rider in the past for Euskaltel. The other teams will know this too - so in reality you have 5 Astana guys who have delivered a top 5 tour finish in the past.... that's a lot of riders to mark!

We're not forgetting him. Unless something weird happens, I see him on team orders to provide towing services to either AC or LA on the coming climbs. Let's face the fact that Lance's and JB's historical tactics call for strong team mates to assist the GC contender into a position that they can gain the requisit time. But, you're absolutely correct that on any other team he could be their contender and that the other teams are aware of this. Still, Lance and Alberto will be the marks. Kloden, Levi, Zubbydo, are the cavalry.

Armstrong has never really endeavored to "break the race to pieces". His formula/pattern/game plan has been consistent throughout his victories. That suggests to me that Lance is the smarter/better racer when compaired to Hinault, who although a gret rider, risked and lost a tour for the glory of a potentially larger margin. All this talk about riders of yesteryear that would attack every stage to win and the like is agrandizing a strategy that is not only riskier and potentially week but also which has little chance of success in the current game.

This is true. However, now that LA isnt "top dawg" on Astana anymore will Contador want to ride using these same tactics, even if they proved to work for Lance?
It is the same team manager, so maybe the tactics would be the same.

Isn't Zubeldia AC designated driver???

Keith, Is the answer: Finished second to a teammate? (discounting the years when there were national teams).

Astana tactics: I anticipate an attack by Popovych on stage 7. The other teams will be forced to follow it, because he's ahead of every other GC contender, except his teammates and Van de Velde. The Astana train will only have to mark the guys who follow Popovych, and possibly put some hurt into them on the last climb. Someone from Astana ends the stage in yellow, and the defense begins.

Isn't Zubeldia AC designated driver???

I heard it was Paulinho - or possibly both of them?

Paulinho is definitely AC's guy; Chris Horner got left off the Astana TdF squad b/c Astana required one Kazakh rider (who was the first guy off the back in the TTT, BTW), and AC picked Paulinho - one of those two spots would otherwise have been Horner's.

I think Zubeldia will more likely pull Lance than AC, but we'll see fairly soon, I guess.

This is true. However, now that LA isnt "top dawg" on Astana anymore will Contador want to ride using these same tactics, even if they proved to work for Lance?
It is the same team manager, so maybe the tactics would be the same.

Exactly, Contador would have to be stark raving mad to ignore the tactics that have worked so well for both Johan and Lance and instead say, "I'm going my style. Com'on Paulinho, let's win this thing." Contador's one of five Astana riders in the top 7, he doesn't know who's going to fall because of some calamity and he has no idea how many of their super dom's it may require to burn out the other GC contenders. He'll sit tight, unless Lance does something egotistical. And Lance will be right on Contador's wheel, waiting for the moment that one of the other contenders goes by and Alberto doesn't have what it takes. At which point, Lance will go, if he can, and after the fact say, "But, Alberto, you couldn't, I could." Although, I give the likelyhood of that playing out, a slim chance.

Whatever happens, this is hopefully going to get interesting the day after tomorrow. Or, we'll see Astana slowly grind everyone into pulp and be board silly, just like the Armstrong victories of old.

Paulinho is definitely AC's guy; Chris Horner got left off the Astana TdF squad b/c Astana required one Kazakh rider (who was the first guy off the back in the TTT, BTW), and AC picked Paulinho - one of those two spots would otherwise have been Horner's.

I think Zubeldia will more likely pull Lance than AC, but we'll see fairly soon, I guess.

Actually, Rast was the first to drop off, but Muravyev is well positioned for the Lanterne Rouge competition.

I heard it was Paulinho - or possibly both of them?

Yep, that is the one I was thinking of.

Armstrong has never really endeavored to "break the race to pieces". His formula/pattern/game plan has been consistent throughout his victories. That suggests to me that Lance is the smarter/better racer when compaired to Hinault, who although a gret rider, risked and lost a tour for the glory of a potentially larger margin. All this talk about riders of yesteryear that would attack every stage to win and the like is agrandizing a strategy that is not only riskier and potentially week but also which has little chance of success in the current game.

Wow, exactly what everyone who thinks like you said what Anquetil was riding.

Lance is not even close to Hinault when one looks at overall results.

I do agree that Lance has never tried to break the race to pieces, which is not something Hinault usually tried to do. So I guess I just have to keep repeating it until you get it.

In 86 Hinautl wanted to win, but he did not want to do it in a way where he would look to a Frenchman (or other European fan) that he simply went back on his word. He did that by attacking again and again. Very much like what Astana can do with Levi and Kloden. The other teams either chase and risk a counter attack when they catch or concede minutes to the attacker. It puts other teams in a bind. In 86 Hinault continued doing this even when he had the lead. If he was only out for the win that was not an optimal strategy, but there was still the issue of technically keeping his word, which he did and most Americans do not want to hear.

Keith, Is the answer: Finished second to a teammate? (discounting the years when there were national teams).

Astana tactics: I anticipate an attack by Popovych on stage 7. The other teams will be forced to follow it, because he's ahead of every other GC contender, except his teammates and Van de Velde. The Astana train will only have to mark the guys who follow Popovych, and possibly put some hurt into them on the last climb. Someone from Astana ends the stage in yellow, and the defense begins.

Nope.

DiabloScott had the key. It was winning Polka Dot. Don't forget earlier he did something else not done since. He won the Yellow and Green Jersies in 79. With Polka Dot in 86 he is the only rider to win all 3 in the TDF.

Hinault is also the only rider to win all 3 Major Tours the first time he rode them.

...DiabloScott had the key. It was winning Polka Dot. Don't forget earlier he did something else not done since. He won the Yellow and Green Jersies in 79. With Polka Dot in 86 he is the only rider to win all 3 in the TDF.
...

Merckx won all three in the same tour in 1969. I presume you may have meant "the only other rider to win all three in the TDF"?

Merckx won all three in the same tour in 1969. I presume you may have meant "the only other rider to win all three in the TDF"?

He did in the original question...



BTW in 86 Hinault joined a club with only one other member as far as the TDF goes. Know what it was? And yes the other rider is the easiest of guesses.

And as far as Hinault tearing apart the field... one year that was especially tough in the mountains he hammered the flat stages so hard that none of the climbers had any energy left when they got to the first col. The Columbians were expected to do really well that year but they just withered. That was awesome.

Well if you count 1969 as once, and 1970/1971 as another iteration, Merckx captured all three jerseys twice over. Hinault would be the second person to do it, but it could be counted as the third time it had been done. :D Awfully impressive feat, but I like Eddie better - as both a rider and a person.

He did in the original question...



And as far as Hinault tearing apart the field... one year that was especially tough in the mountains he hammered the flat stages so hard that none of the climbers had any energy left when they got to the first col. The Columbians were expected to do really well that year but they just withered. That was awesome.

I'm pretty sure US Postal did the same kind of thing once, but Lance did not have to do the hammering himself.

It is hard to compare 1986 to 2009. There were no radios in the peleton in 1986 and I would argue today's field is a much more specialized and professional bunch. I'm not saying there weren't very gifted athletes back then, and certainly Hinault was one but the overall depth of the field is stronger today. Add TV and radio and it is just so much harder to get away and make it stick. Like today's stage for example.

Lance will be right on Contador's wheel, waiting for the moment that one of the other contenders goes by and Alberto doesn't have what it takes. At which point, Lance will go, if he can, and after the fact say, "But, Alberto, you couldn't, I could."

If anything, switch Contador and Armstrong.

This isn't rocket science. Even the best laid plans are subject to who has the legs and who doesn't on any given day. I doubt they (astana) are even putting half as much debate into it as we are.

Whats best for the team is to drive the pace and place AC, LA, et all at the front of the pack, then just let them go at it. Whoever has the legs gets the yellow and lead of the team. No point anointing someone who doesn't have it. Playing these guys against each other (within reason) is a means of getting the best performance too....

Here's something to ponder:

What's more important? That the team win, or that one person on the team win?

The "team leader" is inevitably the guy with the best chance of winning, so supporting his win is the same as supporting the team win. But what if you have two riders with equal (and five riders with reasonable) chances of winning?

What? No one wants to touch this? IMO it's the key issue for Astana.

This was just as big a deal in the 40's and 50's, when national teams often included a number of well-matched rivals. It also created problems for guys like Roche, who rebelled against the orthodoxies and politics of his predominantly Italian team, in '87.

Sometimes the only way to show you are worthy of leadership is to prove it on the road, with or without support from management and team mates. The designated leader is not necessarily the strongest rider.

To answer your question directly- I don't believe anyone at Astana thinks they have 5 GC candidates and you have to wonder at the mentality of guys like Kloden and Leipheimer, who seem content to be super-domestiques. Armstrong seems to have bluffed his way into joint leadership but the solution to this problem is in Contador's hands- with an ITT and the Alps on the horizon. Teamwork has it's limits.

It is hard to compare 1986 to 2009. There were no radios in the peleton in 1986 and I would argue today's field is a much more specialized and professional bunch. I'm not saying there weren't very gifted athletes back then, and certainly Hinault was one but the overall depth of the field is stronger today. Add TV and radio and it is just so much harder to get away and make it stick. Like today's stage for example.

You had me at 'specialised'.......

most of what pass for 'leaders' at the moment lack the talent and/or mental toughness to compete with perennial winners of the past. Armstrong is an exception- and he has a lot of his current opponents in a psychological spin, despite his obvious lack of results recently.

Armstrong has never really endeavored to "break the race to pieces". His formula/pattern/game plan has been consistent throughout his victories. That suggests to me that Lance is the smarter/better racer when compaired to Hinault, who although a gret rider, risked and lost a tour for the glory of a potentially larger margin. All this talk about riders of yesteryear that would attack every stage to win and the like is agrandizing a strategy that is not only riskier and potentially week but also which has little chance of success in the current game.

You need to decide whether or not you want to compare riders across the generations........

Basic math tells me that Coppi, Merckx and Hinault knew something about competition- and that their 'weak and risky' strategies turned them into monuments of the sport.

If Lance and Contador are going to follow team rules and not chase a teammates attack down doesnt it come down to who attacks first and makes it stick? Even if Lance is weaker than Contador in other words but stronger than everyone else and he attacks first doesnt Contador have to sit on everyone elses wheel like Lance did(intentionally or not) when Contador launched on 7.

So the attack as i see it for Lance to win has to be relatively early on a climb and take away Contador launching off the front later. Which means the other contenders will have to be pummeled by a pace that is mindbending...and then the question becomes does LA legs have the snap in them to make an attack if the pace is that high all day. I think the answer is no.

I know this, Lance is a VERY smart rider and he will have figured out exactly where he needs to go and you can be sure he will be going BEFORE Contador. Thats really his only chance to win as i see it. Otherwise i see Contador putting 15-35 seconds into him on stages 15 and 20. That would mean LA would have to make up 1 full minute in the stage 18 TT...very unlikely.

Maybe you could see it like this....Lance goes and Contador is sitting on his wheel...and we can listen to Bob Roll et all telling us it is amazing how Lance is sacrificing himself to give Contador the last bit of energy he has, etc....we can all fill in the blanks...

When Lance goes, Contador is going to go and sit on him... and then about 3-5 km from the end...Contador's going to attack...and then, we shall see... I think it's Contador clearly, but Lance may surprise all of us... we shall see.

I think its time for a new guy other than Lance...

Maybe you could see it like this....Lance goes and Contador is sitting on his wheel...and we can listen to Bob Roll et all telling us it is amazing how Lance is sacrificing himself to give Contador the last bit of energy he has,.........

or you hear Bob Roll saying how Contador shouldent be "dragging" other contenders onto Lances wheel.


If Lance and Contador are going to follow team rules and not chase a teammates attack down doesnt it come down to who attacks first and makes it stick? Even if Lance is weaker than Contador in other words but stronger than everyone else and he attacks first doesnt Contador have to sit on everyone elses wheel like Lance did(intentionally or not) when Contador launched on 7.

There is a difference between chasing down an attack and bridging to an attack.
Contador this year wont "chase down" an attack from Armstrong, but Armstrong migh "chase down" an attack from Contador.
Why? Whats the difference? What am I trying to say?
Contador is much stronger than Lance in the mountains, well, of course he is, Contador is a climber, Lance is not, but anyway, Contador is simply stronger this year.
If Contador goes, any attempt Lance is going to make to bridge is going to cause everyone else to go up with him, because Lance cant shred away. If Lance goes, Contador can shred away from the pack to bridge to Armstrong.

Bottom line is that Contador should be leader for this reason, and its a very simple one boiled down, he is simply stronger this year.

or you hear Bob Roll saying how Contador shouldent be "dragging" other contenders onto Lances wheel.
Contador is much stronger than Lance in the mountains, well, of course he is, Contador is a climber, Lance is not, but anyway, Contador is simply stronger this year.


So you're saying you don't like Lance's chances? Man what a big surprise, lol.

Lance is not a climber? What? Since when?

How has Contador shown that he is the stronger rider than Lance this year?

i believe Contador will gain a little bit of time on every mountain against Lance and this may be intentional from Lance so he can be a little fresher for the ITT but Lance may still win it cause of the ITT where he can put like 40 seconds on Contador so if he loses less then 40 till the ITT the ITT should mean he will be on yellow.And on Ventoux only God knows although Contador is the favourite i believe maybe Lance can drag his sorry behind and suck on Contador wheel all the way up to the top.

Lance has always been an animal on the ITT, and has usually won the tour in the last ITT, but I wonder if "Father Time" is going to rear its ugly head finally.