Professional Cycling - Old Age and Treachery: Go Lance!

did the pony express just arrive?

byai

Lance is dope!

Just wait for the mountains...the old age part will be more obvious.

Yeah, I'm betting on the 10 yr younger legs when the roads tip up.

Impressive.

Old Lance < the Lance of old.

The mountains are coming...

Just wait for the mountains...the old age part will be more obvious.


I'm betting you're right. I would have liked to have seen him get another Yellow jersey yesterday. Don't thinkits likely to happen again.

well, if Asstana plays their cards right, they can have the top 5 spots filled.

I'm betting you're right. I would have liked to have seen him get another Yellow jersey yesterday. Don't thinkits likely to happen again.

I think the time gaps are big enough and the slopes gentle enough that LA could possibly get the yellow for at least one stage. He is not likely to be that tired yet. The back-to-back mountain stages and attacks from other teams will take their toll so this is his only chance to wear yellow again.

Treachery: violation of allegiance...

I think the time gaps are big enough and the slopes gentle enough that LA could possibly get the yellow for at least one stage. He is not likely to be that tired yet. The back-to-back mountain stages and attacks from other teams will take their toll so this is his only chance to wear yellow again.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

well, if Astana plays their cards right, they can have the top 5 spots filled.

...meaning only 4 to ride support?

Having 5 of the top 10 spots after winning the TTT, within the first week of the Tour, means less than you think it does.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

When do you think this is going to happen? Tomorrow is a flat stage and not likely to have any impact on the GC, unless Fab has an Alberto moment. Friday is a day for the climbers and AC is only 19s out of yellow, Saturday is again a day for the climbers. By days end on Sat Lance should be behind AC by a decent chunk.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

If AC allows this to happen he's cooked as team leader, he needs to (and I think he will) stamp is authority as the "man" on this team. If he puts another 20-30s into Cadel it will be as much as death sentence for any hope he had for a win..that being said, after what took place yesterday Evans, Sastre and A. Schleck are going to have to attack the sh#t out of Astana which will work in AC's favor...he has the best change of pace (along with maybe A. Schleck) of any of the contenders.

When do you think this is going to happen? Tomorrow is a flat stage and not likely to have any impact on the GC, unless Fab has an Alberto moment. Friday is a day for the climbers and AC is only 19s out of yellow, Saturday is again a day for the climbers. By days end on Sat Lance should be behind AC by a decent chunk.


He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

I see this happening Friday. Astana is bunched up in the GC. They don't need to attack anyone unless other contenders make a move. You are getting caught up in the LA vs AC hype if you think Astana riders have any reason to attack each other. What would be the purpose of doing that in the 7th stage of a 21 stage PROFESSIONAL stage race? The TDF no less!

I see this happening Friday. Astana is bunched up in the GC. They don't need to attack anyone unless other contenders make a move. You are getting caught up in the LA vs AC hype if you think Astana riders have any reason to attack each other. What would be the purpose of doing that in the 7th stage of a 21 stage PROFESSIONAL stage race? The TDF no less!

Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre and Andy Schleck are all GC contenders who lost out on yesterdays TTT. The only hope they have in moving up the order until the last TT is in the high mountains. Friday will be their first chance to do this. When one or more them go AC will have to respond...once the attacks start he is better suited to react. Once he has a gap he's not going to slow down to wait for LA. The odds are better that AC will be in yellow after the weekend than Lance.

Stage 5

-steephill.tv

Stage 5

-steephill.tv

Your point?

People read too much into the standings after a TTT. Winning teams often end up with several highly placed riders.

Leipheimer and Zubeldia will go backwards when the big climbs begin. If Astana really played it right and with some luck they could end up in Paris with three in the top five.

it wont take luck for Contador, Klodi, and Lance to be top 5.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.

Contradoper had time splits

I can see Astana giving LA the yellow jersey early in the mountains, provided he can keep up, just to show support for his cause. After that if they see a chance to put up time against the contenders they tell AC to attack. I agree his age will start to show as the race goes on so if he wants the yellow he's going to have to take it on Friday.

Wow. Lots of predictions here. I will be interesting to revisit this thread in a couple of days to see who was right and who was wrong. Bookmarked!

I think LA can pull it off fri and sat. he doesn't need to attack. Just cover what the other GCs throw at him. I don't think AC is gonna go all out either, IMO it is more to his advantage to let the other GCs kill themselves and just cover at this point in the game.

as mentioned LA did the ITT early to his disadvantage and 22 sec wasn't terrible. And it isn't like LA ever sucked at climbing

Wow. Lots of predictions here. I will be interesting to revisit this thread in a couple of days to see who was right and who was wrong. Bookmarked!

Indeed.

Just so my position is clear when we revisit the thread, Contador will be wearing Yellow Sunday

...meaning only 4 to ride support?

Having 5 of the top 10 spots after winning the TTT, within the first week of the Tour, means less than you think it does.

I wasn't saying it was the greatest accomplishment in cycling,
I just thought it would be pretty slick to have the top 5 spots occupied by members of the same team.

LA will earn yellow on Friday, followed by Contador getting the yellow later on the weekend.

I'm taking the easy bet, someone from Astana in yellow. Anyone want to bet against this one?

General Classification after Stage 6


steephill.tv

We got us a troll, boys.

General Classification after Stage 6


steephill.tv

wow. shock. horror.

who would have ever thought that the GC would be published on the intrawebs? :eek:

certainly none of us on 'road bike racing.'

We got us a troll, boys.

an uncreative one at that.

And who would have thought that the GC would stay the same after another flat stage? Wow.

Bruynel is a pretty sharp old bird. I'm starting to wonder if the 'Astana conflict' isn't something he manufactured to throw other teams off. If they think they really have to watch 2 GC contenders from Astana it makes it much harder and divides resources.

It would be smart to work for LA in yellow on over the next 3 days. This would take the focus off of Alberto and he could stay close but out of sight and take the yellow later and hold it to Paris.

This way LA (maybe now knowing he can't win) gets to shine for a while, push his cause (himself ;)) and look like the good guy/ team player at the Tour's end; LA's ego is appeased, Astana gets the win and Bruynel proves he can win with someone else.

That's a pretty good pkg to shop for next season.

Any takers?

Bruynel is a pretty sharp old bird. I'm starting to wonder if the 'Astana conflict' isn't something he manufactured to throw other teams off. If they think they really have to watch 2 GC contenders from Astana it makes it much harder and divides resources.

It would be smart to work for LA in yellow on over the next 3 days. This would take the focus off of Alberto and he could stay close but out of sight and take the yellow later and hold it to Paris.

This way LA (maybe now knowing he can't win) gets to shine for a while, push his cause (himself ;)) and look like the good guy/ team player at the Tour's end; LA's ego is appeased, Astana gets the win and Bruynel proves he can win with someone else.

That's a pretty good pkg to shop for next season.

Any takers?

I imagine Bruyneel's job is currently all about keeping Alberto's head cool, no matter what happens. Lance isn't going to splinter the team, he's too smart for that, and wouldn't want to attempt the win with only a portion. Plus, it's no secret that Lance is very possibly looking toward a future team owners position, so he's all about showing leadership and teamwork at the moment. Johan is no doubt sitting with Alberto and laying out the various possible scenarioes, so that, when any of them play out, he doesn't over react and let that head get hot.

So, yes, your suggestion isn't without possibility. However, I imagine Astana are a bit more flexible than to actually try for a Lance led portion before shifting support to Alberto. How it plays will of course have a lot to do with what the other GC contenders try. I can't imagine that guys like Sastre will happily sit in for the next two days when they're already 3:00 down. Time will tell.

I think it would be great if Bruyneel told his contenders in the last 5 km he's going to let them off the leash and may the best man win. Never happen but would be fun to watch.

I don't want to say I told you so but....well yes I do. I told you so.

I don't want to say I told you so but....well yes I do. I told you so.

Yes you did...but even I could have predicted that AC would be da man today...but I didn't, cuz if I did he woulda got run over by a bus or something, so I keep my mouth shut so I don't get anyone hurt.

I don't want to say I told you so but....well yes I do. I told you so.
Indeed you did. Would have loved to hear Astana's team radio today.

Patencad is already lining up the excuses in another thread. The Fanboys can't help themselves..if LA got the MJ they would say he's better than AC. AC beats LA and LA is the perfect teammate who can't chase down his own teammate....which by the way didn't stop LA from putting guys on the front of that break the other day to distance himself from AC.

Patencad is already lining up the excuses in another thread. The Fanboys can't help themselves..if LA got the MJ they would say he's better than AC. AC beats LA and LA is the perfect teammate who can't chase down his own teammate....which by the way didn't stop LA from putting guys on the front of that break the other day to distance himself from AC.

In all fairness, the two situations were essentially the same...one rider got a gap (by talent/strength or smarts/luck) and the other couldn't really chase because hey, they're on the same team. The Astana guys didn't start working on the front of that break the other day until it was apparent that it was gonna stick and JB gave them the go.

Didn't Lance say plain as day yesterday that if AC went, he wouldn't chase?

AC is the man...unless he f's it up.

In all fairness, the two situations were essentially the same...one rider got a gap (by talent/strength or smarts/luck) and the other couldn't really chase because hey, they're on the same team. The Astana guys didn't start working on the front of that break the other day until it was apparent that it was gonna stick and JB gave them the go.

Didn't Lance say plain as day yesterday that if AC went, he wouldn't chase?

Yes but...and it's a big one...had Lance had the legs to counter Evans today he would have..before AC did..he was seconds away from getting the MJ. My point is that as good as LA is riding, and he is riding very very well, it was obvious on stage 1 that AC is just better than Lance.

I agree that in the break Astana could not chase them down to help AC bridge up...but had AC been paying attention he would have made the break and the point would have been moot. Had Lance had the legs he'd have countered Evans. He didn't not because he was setting up AC it was because he couldn't. Big difference there.

Yes you did...but even I could have predicted that AC would be da man today...but I didn't, cuz if I did he woulda got run over by a bus or something, so I keep my mouth shut so I don't get anyone hurt.
+1 nothing like gloating when your nearly 1:1 pick comes through.

+1 nothing like gloating when your nearly 1:1 pick comes through.

I'm just pointing out that there were a number of people on this thread who disagreed. Had it been the other way round I'm sure I'd be getting it right back, and deservedly so. BTW I've been saying that LA couldn't beat AC since the end of stage 1 this isn't some thing I just came to. Having said that I thought LA would lose more time today to AC...Lance is riding much better at this point than I would have guessed.

Yes but...and it's a big one...had Lance had the legs to counter Evans today he would have..before AC did..he was seconds away from getting the MJ. My point is that as good as LA is riding, and he is riding very very well, it was obvious on stage 1 that AC is just better than Lance.

I agree that in the break Astana could not chase them down to help AC bridge up...but had AC been paying attention he would have made the break and the point would have been moot. Had Lance had the legs he'd have countered Evans. He didn't not because he was setting up AC it was because he couldn't. Big difference there.

I guess I must have missed something (I was working and watching at the same time). It looked to me like Lance had no problem matching Evans' first attack. Did I miss Evans attacking again, prompting ACs move?

Not saying that he could have matched AC of course...I don't think he can.