Road Bike Racing - Ullrich VS Lance

ok i have some money down saying that ullrich is going to take the tour this year over lance...do you think this was a foolhardy wager. anyone agree with me?

ohh and i forgot to make a "other" option on my poll is there a way i can edit it?

I don't it's ever foolish to take a chance on Jan. That SOB is strong. He and Lance have quite a few others to watch this year too. On OLN's website they have a poll going on who is Armstrongs biggest rival and do you believe that as of right now Tyler is leading? Kind of crazy to me. But you never know.

I feel like there should be other options in this poll or more description. Are you simply asking who we think will win? Who we like better as an overall person/athlete? They could be two different answers for some.

With the route the way it is, I don't think Ullrich is Lance's biggest threat unless they are almost neck and neck going into the final TT. I don't see Ullrich dropping Lance on a mountain stage, or even beating him in the uphill TT. I also think Lance's team will fare better in the TTT. The only way I see Ullrich beating Lance is in the final TT, but that'll only be possible if they are within a minute of each other.

I actually think Hamilton is more of a threat to Lance. He can attack in the mountains and he can TT with the best of them. I don't think he'll come out too badly in the TTT either.

Mayo is the other threat. If he can get time on Lance in the mountains and uphill TT, he could very well hold on in the long TT at the end. I think he'll lose a lot of time in the TTT, so he'll have to really work hard in the early mountain stage to get that time back. I think for him, it'll be all about attack on every mountain to see if he can gain any time possible. If he doesn't go into the final TT with at least a 2 or 3 minute lead, there's no chance for him.

I'm not sure how Heras will do, but I have a feeling he's in the same boat as Mayo, with the exception that I think he's team will do better in the TTT. But he'll still need a big lead going in to the final TT in order to really put pressure on Lance.

I think the key for Lance will be to get time on Ullrich in the mountains and then just not lose much time in the final TT. Plus stick close to the true climbers in the mountains and squash them in the final TT.

Most people think this route doesn't favor Lance, but aside from the new rule about the TTT, I think it actually does favor him. I think his team will place top three for the TTT. He's probably got the best team in terms of being protected for the first week or so. He should arrive at the mountains fully juiced. Then, he's just gotta do what he does in the mountains. And if anyone can recover quickly for the final TT, it's Lance. I think most of the riders like to have those few flat stages after the mountains to rest up for the final TT.

With the route the way it is, I don't think Ullrich is Lance's biggest threat unless they are almost neck and neck going into the final TT. I don't see Ullrich dropping Lance on a mountain stage, or even beating him in the uphill TT. I also think Lance's team will fare better in the TTT. The only way I see Ullrich beating Lance is in the final TT, but that'll only be possible if they are within a minute of each other.

I actually think Hamilton is more of a threat to Lance. He can attack in the mountains and he can TT with the best of them. I don't think he'll come out too badly in the TTT either.

Mayo is the other threat. If he can get time on Lance in the mountains and uphill TT, he could very well hold on in the long TT at the end. I think he'll lose a lot of time in the TTT, so he'll have to really work hard in the early mountain stage to get that time back. I think for him, it'll be all about attack on every mountain to see if he can gain any time possible. If he doesn't go into the final TT with at least a 2 or 3 minute lead, there's no chance for him.

I'm not sure how Heras will do, but I have a feeling he's in the same boat as Mayo, with the exception that I think he's team will do better in the TTT. But he'll still need a big lead going in to the final TT in order to really put pressure on Lance.

I think the key for Lance will be to get time on Ullrich in the mountains and then just not lose much time in the final TT. Plus stick close to the true climbers in the mountains and squash them in the final TT.

Most people think this route doesn't favor Lance, but aside from the new rule about the TTT, I think it actually does favor him. I think his team will place top three for the TTT. He's probably got the best team in terms of being protected for the first week or so. He should arrive at the mountains fully juiced. Then, he's just gotta do what he does in the mountains. And if anyone can recover quickly for the final TT, it's Lance. I think most of the riders like to have those few flat stages after the mountains to rest up for the final TT.


I've got nothing to add, thats exacty the way I see it!

I think it's gonna be Lance, Ullrich, and Tyler on the podium at the end... I'm just not sure which order...

Lance has a proven team, is in great shape right now (according to Chris Carmichael) and he's hungry for the mythical 6th win...

Ullrich is also in great shape now (he obviously put the strudel down, and looks ripped)... he's tired of being the bridesmaid, and wants it pretty bad. He has a good team, but I'm still not convinced they will work as a team.

Tyler has a great team, he's tougher than nearly anyone else out there, and excellent TT guy, good in the mountains. I honestly think he's a bigger threat than Jan.

As for Mayo, and Heras... they are the wildcards... They both know how to win, have decent teams... I'm not so sure about Heras team's decision not to race in the past month, but to strictly do training rides... if yer gonna race, you gotta race I think...

jeff

I don't see anyone except for Lance beating Jan this year, everyone else is just fighting for third place. I think that Jan will be a bigger threat to Lance than he has ever been (including last year), but I hope Lance comes in like it's 2001 and crushes everyone just one last time.

lance and jan are heads and shoulders above the rest. tyler gets a lot of magazine time, but frankly, he's never podium'd the tour and he'd be lucky to do so this year. he'll probalby crash out, as is his wont when the pressure's high. i hope lance wins, but jan's looking good, and he has a helluva team, even without vino.

sd

With the extended ITT at the end of the race it's going to be hard for the "others" to take the GC, Mayo and Heras just don't have the TT skills that Jan, Armstrong and to some extent Hamilton have. Last years ITT at the end would have been an amazing stage if Jan hadn't wiped out, they were set to break the TT record even in the rain. And Lance was right there with him. And even with Jan's crash and then dropping the pace a little bit they put time into Mayo and Heras (but Hamilton a few seconds ahead).

In the stage 12 TT last year Lance (even riding dehydrated) put nearly 4 minutes into Mayo, 6 minutes into Heras, 1 minute into Hamilton.

I just can't see USPS letting either Mayo or Heras get that far up the road unless something has gone wrong.

The course this year is very tough, but that will effect everybody differently. Any of the top riders could crack and be left behind. But after last years I wouldn't want to compete against Lance and USPS, knowing he won last year and he wasn't 100%, and his history of using bad situations to fuel desire. But Jan has been the bridemaid and not the bride, what now, 5 times? He's going to be full of desire as well.

I'll give the odds on favorite to Lance, but I wouldn't rate Jan to far behind.

Andrew

I voted for Jan simply because I want to see him win.

Mayo is the other threat. If he can get time on Lance in the mountains and uphill TT, he could very well hold on in the long TT at the end. I think he'll lose a lot of time in the TTT, so he'll have to really work hard in the early mountain stage to get that time back. I think for him, it'll be all about attack on every mountain to see if he can gain any time possible. If he doesn't go into the final TT with at least a 2 or 3 minute lead, there's no chance for him.

I'm not sure how Heras will do, but I have a feeling he's in the same boat as Mayo, with the exception that I think he's team will do better in the TTT. But he'll still need a big lead going in to the final TT in order to really put pressure on Lance.

Euskatel has never been in yellow. They have no experience defending the yellow jersey. If they got it, other teams may just break them down slowly by forcing them to defend. That takes care of Mayo. And you can pretty much bet they will give up the entire two and a half minutes (thanks Tour organizers for that one) in the TTT.

Heras, individually, is tremendously talented. However, Seguros is not a real strong team and Saiz is so emotional that I have a hard time believing that he and Heras will make it through three weeks, tactically, since they have such different personalities. It would drive me nuts to have that guy screaming at me through a loudspeaker in a TT. Or over my earpiece/radio.

The question with Mayo is whether he was already at a 100% on the Ventoux a few weeks ago. If he was he'll have a hard time holding that form, if he was at 97% or so and still looking to peak, he'll be a contender. I agree with RW about Mayo's team but there was a time when USPS had to defend Yellow for a 1st time. We won't know about Euskatel until if/when Mayo puts the Jersey on.

Probably won't see much in the 1st week as the GC contenders will ride pretty defensively. Unless some team makes a mistake we might even see Petacci in Yellow for a day or 2 early on.

I'd like to see a hard stage or 2 earlier just to increase the intensity on some of the flatter stages for the GC riders.

As to the point, early on I said LA wins easily or the combined peloton finally cracks him and he's well back. All or nothing so to speak. I'll stick with that though a closer finish is certainly possible.

I think Lance’s form finally came around on Luz Arden last year. Where was the great climber Mayo? He was 40 seconds back with Jan.

It’s one thing to win a mountain stage or TT in a week long stage race, it’s quite another to win stages at the end of 3 weeks. Lance and Jan have shown they can do it, nobody else has...yet.

I think having the mountain goats (Mayo, Haras) will hurt Jan and help Lance since Lance has the ability to bridge an attack.

It will be fun to watch! Just got my TiVo and I have a week to figure it out :rolleyes:

-murray

I'm thinking you need a option for "other".

While everyone is watching the two historical favorites, history shows that new blood does come in... I'm thinking an upset for both with neither in the GC.

Euskatel has never been in yellow. They have no experience defending the yellow jersey. If they got it, other teams may just break them down slowly by forcing them to defend. That takes care of Mayo.

Just because he won't have the team, it's not like he is riding with his brake rubbing on his tire. If he has the legs, he can defend the attacks. Mayo is an incredible climber, and if he has the legs to take yellow, do you really expect others to take it away from him in the mountains?

Pantani didn't need the team...


I think Lance’s form finally came around on Luz Arden last year. Where was the great climber Mayo? He was 40 seconds back with Jan.


Not bad, since he was young, and it was his first time battling for a top 5 in the Tour... and he probably could have had a closer gap, but, since he couldn't stay with Armstrong, he decided to just sit on Ullrich's wheel and make him guide the pace.

ok i have some money down saying that ullrich is going to take the tour this year over lance...do you think this was a foolhardy wager. anyone agree with me?


Doesn't matter - you've made your bet now see how it comes out. Evreything else is just opinions at this point

he (Mayo) couldn't stay with Armstrong

Exactly.

Lance wasn't himself for most of the race last year except the last few stages. Was it because he is aging or one of the several things that were reported (stomach virus, dehydration, brake rubing, crashes, etc.)?

-murray

I think Lance’s form finally came around on Luz Arden last year. Where was the great climber Mayo? He was 40 seconds back with Jan.



Not bad, since he was young, and it was his first time battling for a top 5 in the Tour... and he probably could have had a closer gap, but, since he couldn't stay with Armstrong, he decided to just sit on Ullrich's wheel and make him guide the pace.

Mayo had a bad day. Armstrong had a good day. That's all.

Mayo's the better climber of the two.

Lance is a better surge climber...changes in pace don't hurt him the way they hurt Jan. When they slowed for Lance I feel it actually gave him an advantage as he came blasting through with the adrenaline pumping. If I was those guys I would've been a little pissed at him for just blowing by.

Not to be a butthead but maybe the reason he struggled last year was poor use of medicinal enhansements. That oughta bring out the Lance lovers.

I did not know the tour was only going to have two participants this year and it was Ully and Army.

Sooo, now that we know there will be nobody else in the race why not just have a single time trial up L'ape and call it quits. OK, we can still have a victory lap in Paris with either the German or American flag being flown by its respective racer/winner.

Boy, all Paul and Phil will have to do is remember the names of two riders this year. They will also have an easy job.

I imagine Fiat is disappointed as there will only be two team cars to supply this year. But at least the stages will be easier to follow as two camera men on cycles will do it.

Who will the Basque people cheer for?

I did not know the tour was only going to have two participants this year and it was Ully and Army.


Actually there are three. Ully, Army and Hammer. :D

My fantasy is that someone Armstrong fans have never heard of wins.

Lance is a better surge climber...changes in pace don't hurt him the way they hurt Jan. When they slowed for Lance I feel it actually gave him an advantage as he came blasting through with the adrenaline pumping. If I was those guys I would've been a little pissed at him for just blowing by.

.

Actually that is not entirely true. Lance got back to the group and rode with them until Mayo launched a second attack. Then Lance followed and countered. He did not "blow by them" while they were slowed down.

Mayo had a bad day. Armstrong had a good day. That's all.

Mayo's the better climber of the two.

Are you kidding?

I think he's more of a natural climber than Lance. Whether or not that makes him a better climber, I don't know.

Mayo had a bad day. Armstrong had a good day. That's all.

Mayo's the better climber of the two.

Wasn't Pantanni a better climber than Lance :lol:

-murray

No way, man! Lance is god. He's the best climber, sprinter, TT rider in the world!!

And he doesn't use drugs. He'll probably win 8 TDFs.

On a side note: The belief is that Lance was not holding back on Ventoux. He just got destroyed. That's all.

He's still the best climber and Dungeons & Dragons player in the world!

I don't know, I'd say Heras is currently the best climber in the pro peloton.
Don't know about his D&D playing but I hear he does a mean game of cribbage.

so, lets switch the Luz Arden scenario to Ventoux.
Lance had a bad day.
Mayo had a good day.
does it lessen the fact that mayo tore the legs offa lance? nope don't think so.


marty

What are ya, Lotek? Some type of commie? We got no room for pinkos here.

Lance is the best climber ever. Not just this year, but ever!

The belief is that Lance was not holding back on Ventoux. He just got destroyed. That's all.

Well, Ullrich certainly thinks that Lance was holding back. Apparently you know LA better, though. :D

Anywho, either Ullrich IS correct, or Lance ALREADY has a head-game going with Jan. Either way, in 3 days, it all begins. :p

Man, I'm taking some heat here. Don't know why. Or maybe I do.

Bruyneel was certainly surprised. Lance must have forgotten to tell him that he was holding back. "Well," said Bruyneel, "although we didn't go with the idea of winning, I was a little surprised by how much we lost on Mont Ventoux. The truth is, we didn't expect that."

I actually couldn't care less about Lance/Iban or Ventoux. Someone had a great day, maybe. Someone had a bad day maybe. We'll find out. Maybe.

Bruyneel was real surprised with Lance's poor form on Stage 10 in 2001, too. I'm sure he was even MORE surprised when Lance attacked and won the stage by over a minute.

What are ya, Lotek? Some type of commie? We got no room for pinkos here.

Lance is the best climber ever. Not just this year, but ever!

I said it before... you have lost your mind.

It took you a year to figure that out, Brent? You'll see someday that Lance is the greatest ever. Merckx sucks. He couldn't even hang with todays peloton.

I'm either really wrong or out of place in this thread. Just say so and I'll go away 'till the Vuelta.

...Merckx sucks. He couldn't even hang with todays peloton...

Here is Eddy putting the hurt on Axel. :roflmao:

Nice pic! I'm assuming it's real. Where's it from?

Here is Eddy putting the hurt on Axel. :roflmao:

Man, Eddy got fat...

jeff

Nice pic! I'm assuming it's real. Where's it from?


Here: http://bikeforums.net/showthread.php?p=455817#post455817

Eddy has been enjoying a few too many Stella Artois' methinks.

Laggard, me a pinko? nah, maybe an independant, but I sure don't support
telekom or no other sissy kraut team . . . :D

(apologies to all the others of Deutshe extract . . . ).

marty

LANCE will never get fat.

More proof that Merckx sux.

In all seriousness, here's what I see going down.

1. Ullrich
2. Armstrong
3. Mayo

I'm predicting an incident with Lance. An injury, illness, something like that. Just enough to knock him down the 2% that Jan needs to guarantee victory for himself. I think Lance has an edge on him physically and mentally. I also think we'll see an even better Mayo than we did last year. I've got him winning Alp d'Huez.

Tyler? Not sure if he can keep the rubber side down.

I'm probably wrong, but that's my serious guess.

tell me your joking aobut Merckx sucking.

he has gotten monsterously large though hasn't he?

No, he's not joking. Merckx only won so much due to lack of serious competition.

Someone like Rebellin or Backstedt would seriously OWN Eddy.

yah, like Eddy didn't own every race he entered. . . .

Here's an interesting thought (back to original topic)

Every GC contender says they are riding to "Beat Lance"
Lance says he is riding to win the Tour de France.

subtle but significant difference I'd say.

Marty

Of course I'm joking about Merckx. He's the greatest rider that cycling will ever see. No one even comes close. It's tough to find anyone who thinks differently.

Actually, it's really easy to find people who think differently. I got into an argument with a friend who only follows the Tour, and he said that Lance and Indurain are better than Merckx because they won 5 consecutive Tours, whereas Merckx did not.

In all seriousness, here's what I see going down.

1. Ullrich
2. Armstrong
3. Mayo

I'm predicting an incident with Lance. An injury, illness, something like that. Just enough to knock him down the 2% that Jan needs to guarantee victory for himself. I think Lance has an edge on him physically and mentally. I also think we'll see an even better Mayo than we did last year. I've got him winning Alp d'Huez.
.

I dunno... after last year, coming in with a stomach flu (or whatver he had), massive dehydration on the TT, a bad brake on one stage, 2 falls, 1 in stage 1, the other up Luz Ardiden (including a busted chainstay after the crash). I think Ullrich had his 2% and then some last year. Not that I don;t think Jan will give Lance a good run... Jan is incredibly tough, and looks in amazing shape... but I still think that Lance still has a fairly decent edge on him...

jeff

Actually, it's really easy to find people who think differently. I got into an argument with a friend who only follows the Tour, and he said that Lance and Indurain are better than Merckx because they won 5 consecutive Tours, whereas Merckx did not.


Your friend is an idiot... maybe he didn;t do it consecutively, but how many times did Lance ride the Giro, then the Tour ? Mercxx was an animal... He has more wins than anyone (If I remember right) and I highly doubt that anyone will ever beat him... the sport has become too specialized... riders today focus on 1 major tour, usually...

jeff

Actually, it's really easy to find people who think differently. I got into an argument with a friend who only follows the Tour, and he said that Lance and Indurain are better than Merckx because they won 5 consecutive Tours, whereas Merckx did not.

Ok, it's tough to find cycling educated people who feel differently. :p Tell him that in '69 Eddy won the yellow, green and polka dot jerseys. Tell him that he won 34 stages, 2 mountain jerseys and 3 points jerseys. 5 in a row is impressive but not the be all and end all of the TDF history.

Actually, Jeanne Longo has more wins than Merckx, but that's women's cycling and a different ballgame. I know my friend is an idiot. If it had been a face-to-face argument, I probably would have pushed him down a flight of stairs.

Comparing a rider from today from one so many years ago is rather pointless. About the only things that are the same from back then and today is the fact that they race in Europe and on bicycles. Past that everything starts to get pretty murky.

Want to get a good idea who is going to win the race, at least from the perspective of somebody who has to do some research, check out the book makers and what odds they have for the race;
Armstrong 1/1
Ullrich 2/1
Hamilton 9/2
Mayo 5/1

Then it goes to;
Roberto Heras 28/1
Ivan Basso 28/1
Haimar Zubeldia 33/1
Francisco Mancebo 50/1
Carlos Sastre 50/1
Denis Menchov 50/1
All the way to;
Laurent Brochard 250/1

Andrew

I know my friend is an idiot. If it had been a face-to-face argument, I probably would have pushed him down a flight of stairs.

Now that's how to settle an argument. Let's see him respond to that! :eek: