Professional Cycling For the Fans - TDF- How big is Contador's lead?

I was talking to a friend today. He claimed Armstrong was playing possum. His contention was that you never saw him get out of the saddle and dance on the pedals. Why was he glued to his seat? Just asking.

He's been getting up out of the saddle plenty. But he'll never dance on the pedals again like he used to. That's age catching up to him. He can ride tempo. Doin' a great job at it. But the explosion needed to attack, as Contador did, or the ability to ramp it up to try and track down an attack, like Schleck did, isn't in Lance anymore. At this point, there's no reason to play possum. If he had it, he would have used it. After the stage, Lance even said that he didn't have that kind of climbing ability anymore.

Because of that insane pace set by Saxo at the beginning of the climb. He was shot.

I will take some of what your friend is smoking.

Richard

Because of that insane pace set by Saxo at the beginning of the climb. He was shot.

I will take some of what your friend is smoking.

Richard

He doesn't smoke but I think he had a point. Even if he was shot, I am surprised he didn't get out of the saddle at least a little bit. He was looking like Ullrich today.

Well he is 4 years older, and somewhat out of race shape. Today was his first real test in 4 years. He is rusty and tired. Getting out of the saddle take energy.

Richard

Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.

Sure he will. In fact, it will almost certainly help Lance, now that he's over the divisive "I think I can win" attitude he'd been letting float around the past two weeks. He's performed far better than I anticipated, and now helping a teammate to a likely win will make for a nice cap to his career. In life, being a winner doesn't mean always finishing in first place.

Chicken!

And after that statement I am looking for 1000 to one odds!

I'll put a big foot in this one.

This is not a bookmaking site. Cease and desist.

Contador would have to pull a Rasmussen on the ITT to lose it now. Or pull a Rasmussen in a different way. Or pull an Armstrong and forget to eat, and bonk on stage 17.

Contador lost a stage race this season because he forgot to eat. I don't think Astana will let it happen again, but anybody can crack.

I'll put a big foot in this one.

This is not a bookmaking site. Cease and desist.

Zorro,

It was all in jest.

Zorro,

It was all in jest.

Just don't want anyone to get the wrong idea. :thumb:

Just don't want anyone to get the wrong idea. :thumb:

You wanna bet?:p

You wanna bet?:p

:bang:

Contrador looks like he has it, but stranger things have happen.

1. He could have a bad day. (illness, accident, etc)
2. He could test positive.

There is a lot of racing left. 1.5 minutes is nothing.

Classy interview by Lance afterwards, you could see he was crushed by the fact he just didn't have it. I wonder is Kloden and Armstrong can make the podium... Sastre was impressive how he came back. I would love to see AC and Sastre on a long climb together, Sastre was pulling time back after the initial acceleration.

As usual a lot of clueless replies here. The lead is miniscule. 1:34 is nothing. Now if you want to talk about psychological advantage then by all means Contatdor has a huge advantage.

I don't think Lance can win especially being on the same team, but all it takes is cracking and one can lose 6,7,8, minutes easily.

Of course Contador will win but there is some illogical reasoning going on ...

The Stage 1 TT was a lot more hilly than the next one and it's not like Spain is well know for their TT specialists. However it shakes out, there is some reason to believe that Lance can TT faster.

Yea, Mig was Russian.

Zorro,

It was all in jest.

here's me being a jester: "lance was playing possum"!

Yea, Mig was Russian.

olano was bulgarian :D.

ed rader

As usual a lot of clueless replies here. The lead is miniscule. 1:34 is nothing. Now if you want to talk about psychological advantage then by all means Contatdor has a huge advantage.

I don't think Lance can win especially being on the same team, but all it takes is cracking and one can lose 6,7,8, minutes easily.

Of course Contador will win but there is some illogical reasoning going on ...

I think it depends on how one is looking at it. If I were any rider in the Tour and trying to find where I can make up 1:34 on Contatdor it looks pretty big. But if I'm Contatdor I would be thinking one bad day and it is gone and more than reversed.

But to give the OP who I think really wanted to know, let's say something horrible had to Contatdor on the last of teh flat stages, no injury, just a mechanical from Hell 10 kms out and instead of being up 1:34 he wass trailing by 1:34. Looking at how he has ridden I would still consider him the favorite (unless the mechanical convinced me it was time to believe some conspiricy theory).

As usual a lot of clueless replies here. The lead is miniscule. 1:34 is nothing. Now if you want to talk about psychological advantage then by all means Contatdor has a huge advantage.

I don't think Lance can win especially being on the same team, but all it takes is cracking and one can lose 6,7,8, minutes easily.

Of course Contador will win but there is some illogical reasoning going on ...

I bothered to look up a stage I know you remember. Staage 15 of 1998. Ullrich lost 8 minutes 57 seconds to Pantani.

As usual a lot of clueless replies here. The lead is miniscule. 1:34 is nothing. Now if you want to talk about psychological advantage then by all means Contatdor has a huge advantage.

I don't think Lance can win especially being on the same team, but all it takes is cracking and one can lose 6,7,8, minutes easily.

Of course Contador will win but there is some illogical reasoning going on ...

Contador is not going to crack. Who is going to take a 1:34 out of Contador on a climb? And now that he's a damn good TT'er, who's going to get enough time on him that he just won't take back at Mt. Ventoux? Barring bad luck, crash, injury, illness, or + test. He's going to win. That is not illogical.

After today's stage, Lance even said that he doesn't think he (LA) can win anymore. If something happens to AC, Astana might be forced to throw its support behind Kloden. There is no way Lance will be able to defend going up Mt. Ventoux. He had to be paced up today by Kloden.

Sure there are a lot of km's to ride. But nobody is going to beat AC with something out of the ordinary happening to him first.

As usual a lot of clueless replies here. The lead is miniscule. 1:34 is nothing. Now if you want to talk about psychological advantage then by all means Contatdor has a huge advantage.

I don't think Lance can win especially being on the same team, but all it takes is cracking and one can lose 6,7,8, minutes easily.

Of course Contador will win but there is some illogical reasoning going on ...

...and then there was another rider who woke up on the morning of a certain stage 17, looked at his 8 minute deficit and said "what the heck - looks like a good day to attack":innocent:

...and then there was another rider who woke up on the morning of a certain stage 17, looked at his 8 minute deficit and said "what the heck - looks like a good day to attack":innocent:

Bingo. Just make sure you don't finish first and get tested after.

I am a big Kloden fan, and I agree Lance is toast, but Kloden wasn't looking so hot today either. I mean that in relative terms. He got dropped at the beginning. He fought paced and paced the group. When that group attacked he Lance actually paced him for a bit. Kloden recovered again and paced the last 2k or so. I think Lance and Kloden are very close in performance.

Lance is a bigger name and brings in the $$$$. Unless Lance cracks again Kloden is #3.

As far a Lance pulling a Landis not in the team plan. It would be seen as an attack on his own teammate. If AC trusted Lance, which I don't think he does it could be an interesting way to get other teams up front.

Richard



Contador is not going to crack. Who is going to take a 1:34 out of Contador on a climb? And now that he's a damn good TT'er, who's going to get enough time on him that he just won't take back at Mt. Ventoux? Barring bad luck, crash, injury, illness, or + test. He's going to win. That is not illogical.

After today's stage, Lance even said that he doesn't think he (LA) can win anymore. If something happens to AC, Astana might be forced to throw its support behind Kloden. There is no way Lance will be able to defend going up Mt. Ventoux. He had to be paced up today by Kloden.

Sure there are a lot of km's to ride. But nobody is going to beat AC with something out of the ordinary happening to him first.

I agree that's extemely unlikely that Contador will crack but after having watched this race for so long I've seen some crazy stuff happen and even Armstrong in his 7 year run was cracked a few times as was Mercxx etc. They've just been good enough to limit losses and be able to go on a counter attack later in the race.

I think that given the difficulty of two big mountains tages + TT + Ventoux in the same week could allow for someone to crack. That's a lot of tough racing compressed into a week.

Contador should win #2 but I'm curious to see what lies ahead on 16 and
Ventoux.

As far as Lance goes the only way he can win this race is if he gets onto a break with Contatdor and Contador cracks.

I was hoping he'd pull it off but the hand writing is on the wall.

Other than Armstrong I've been rooting for Maxime Monfort (only Belgian GC'er, who could have a shot at a podium in the next few years)

I agree that's extemely unlikely that Contador will crack but after having watched this race for so long I've seen some crazy stuff happen and even Armstrong in his 7 year run was cracked a few times as was Mercxx etc. They've just been good enough to limit losses and be able to go on a counter attack later in the race.

I think that given the difficulty of two big mountains tages + TT + Ventoux in the same week could allow for someone to crack. That's a lot of tough racing compressed into a week.

Contador should win #2 but I'm curious to see what lies ahead on 16 and
Ventoux.

As far as Lance goes the only way he can win this race is if he gets onto a break with Contatdor and Contador cracks.

I was hoping he'd pull it off but the hand writing is on the wall.

Other than Armstrong I've been rooting for Maxime Monfort (only Belgian GC'er, who could have a shot at a podium in the next few years)

Oh there are some other possibilities for Lance. If Contatdor were the only GC contender on Astana one situation that creates a problem is what to do if some contender (or near contender) goes off the front early in one of the monster stages. Chase and even if you catch risk blowing to stay with him or stay with a select group as first chase and hope to pull him back. Decide wrong and you just might lose yellow for good. But with other contenders on Astana one of them can cover and take the risk of blowing. If the cover is Lance and he does not blow hw could win it all. A couple of big ifs of course.

I;m sorry, I thought you meant lead, as in pencil.
I thought, my word, what a personal question. ;)

Oh there are some other possibilities for Lance. If Contatdor were the only GC contender on Astana one situation that creates a problem is what to do if some contender (or near contender) goes off the front early in one of the monster stages. Chase and even if you catch risk blowing to stay with him or stay with a select group as first chase and hope to pull him back. Decide wrong and you just might lose yellow for good. But with other contenders on Astana one of them can cover and take the risk of blowing. If the cover is Lance and he does not blow hw could win it all. A couple of big ifs of course.

It would be very cool on Stage 17 if somebody like Kirchen, Kreuziger, Monfort, took a flyer on one of the early climbs. Armstrong could mark that move without "attacking" Contador. Would make for a hugely exciting stage.

Unfortunately, I think the odds are low there will be such an attack, lower that other teams would allow Armstrong to go with that move, and lower again that Contador wouldn't go up and shut it down.

I think Alberto trust Armstrong about as far as he can throw him. I doubt he has a problem letting Kloden go chase any breaks.

I don't think Armstrong means to be a thorn in AC's side, but he is used to being top dog. That is something you are born with, and likely the reason he won 7. I don't think it is in Lance's DNA to play second fiddle.

Richard


It would be very cool on Stage 17 if somebody like Kirchen, Kreuziger, Monfort, took a flyer on one of the early climbs. Armstrong could mark that move without "attacking" Contador. Would make for a hugely exciting stage.

Unfortunately, I think the odds are low there will be such an attack, lower that other teams would allow Armstrong to go with that move, and lower again that Contador wouldn't go up and shut it down.

It would be very cool on Stage 17 if somebody like Kirchen, Kreuziger, Monfort, took a flyer on one of the early climbs. Armstrong could mark that move without "attacking" Contador. Would make for a hugely exciting stage.

Unfortunately, I think the odds are low there will be such an attack, lower that other teams would allow Armstrong to go with that move, and lower again that Contador wouldn't go up and shut it down.

contador is marking armstrong. i doubt he'd let him go.

ed rader

I see his lead over Lance like a 34 -21 lead in football starting the 4th quarter. He has to find a way to hold Contador scoreless with a defense that has already given up 34 points while still scoring almost as much as he has the whole game. It can be done. but it's late in the game and the passing attack isn't firing on all cylinders.

It's not impossible - a strong headwind along with a wreck in the ITT, a Jens Voightish tire change on a big climb. The games not over, but it's a hell of a long shot and the stars aren't aligning.

He's up 45 - 17 on the rest of the field.

contador is marking armstrong. i doubt he'd let him go.

ed rader

Hell, the way Contador is riding, I doubt he would let any attack go.