Professional Cycling For the Fans - TDF- How big is Contador's lead?

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?

He might pick up time in the TT but given what happened today, will lose chunks of time on Ventoux to the top climbers.

His lead is big. Very big. 2 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go. Andy appears to be the only climber that can come close, but he will lose even more time in the ITT. Armstrong has no chance to catch Alberto. Lance has some advantage over the better climbers since he can build a cushion in the ITT.

Richard

His lead is big. Very big. 2 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go. Andy appears to be the only climber that can come close, but he will lose even more time in the ITT. Armstrong has no chance to catch Alberto. Lance has some advantage over the better climbers since he can build a cushion in the ITT.

Richard

Big but not that big.

Yes that big.

Richard


Big but not that big.

Yes that big.

Richard

absolutely huge. lance was lucky to have kloden pacing him or he would have lost even more "huge chunks of time" :eek:.

ed rader

Yes that big.

Richard

So you are saying over 99%?

considering the competition. pretty big lead.

It's pretty big... part of the issue as well is how much each of them has left in the tank. Contador looked smooth the whole time, Armstrong looked chewed up.

Another way to see it is: it's a big enough gap that Astana should line up and support Contador.

Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.

That is what I don't like about the tour. We all know it is over now.

If we were talking about him being down on someone from another team, I'd say he could probably pull it back on the TT and Ventoux. But there's no way he's going to attack Contador on Ventoux, even if he had the legs to do it, and he's not likely to get any time back on the TT either.

A strong contender on a very strong team could probably get another 1:34 out of a rival, but I don't think anyone's taking any time out of Astana this year.

Everyone knew Contador would take time out of everyone- including Lance- and will continue to do so.
However Contador needs a little buffer going into the final TT because it's flat and suits the specialists.
Lance could potentially take a chunk of time out of Contador.

My feeling is it won't be enough. Contador has become a real quality TT'er and I don't see him loosing more than maybe 1:00 at the most.
With a few more mountains, he will take another min or two out of everyone and have a good buffer.

Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.

Second place is no small feat, and he's riding as the "road captain" for the strongest rider out there now. Who wouldn't want to be in his shoes?

To me, there's way more class to that than to somehow tactically work himself into the yellow ahead of a stronger rider on his own team (as some speculation was going).

But there's no way he's going to attack Contador on Ventoux, even if he had the legs to do it, and he's not likely to get any time back on the TT either.



well if Lance had the legs, he would stay w/ Contador. You can take that to the bank!
But he can't. No one can stay with Contador- he is a class above.

Still, a podium after all Lance has been through would be spectacular.

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.

Second place is no small feat, and he's riding as the "road captain" for the strongest rider out there now. Who wouldn't want to be in his shoes?

To me, there's way more class to that than to somehow tactically work himself into the yellow ahead of a stronger rider on his own team (as some speculation was going).

lance armstrong for one :eek:.

ed rader

well if Lance had the legs, he would stay w/ Contador. You can take that to the bank!
But he can't. No one can stay with Contador- he is a class above.

Still, a podium after all Lance has been through would be spectacular.

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.

that podium is getting awful crowded. my take is lance will not make the podium so maybe that does make room for sastre.

ed rader

Considering the time trial Sastre has his work cut out to catch Armstrong. He will have to take 4 or 5 minutes on stage 20. That is a tall order.

Richard


that podium is getting awful crowded. my take is lance will not make the podium so maybe that does make room for sastre.

ed rader

The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.

If Lance was smart he would have been there to support Alberto in exchange for a breakaway on stage
20.

My guess is 50% chance Lance maintains #3 spot unless he is mentally defeated now then he could really fall hard. It may be in his best interest to lose big chunks of time for a shot at stage 20.

Richard


So you are saying over 99%?

Considering the time trial Sastre has his work cut out to catch Armstrong. He will have to take 4 or 5 minutes on stage 20. That is a tall order.

Richard

that was my way of saying that armstrong wouldn't make the podium....not that sastre would :D. i think lance will give up huge chunks on stage 20. his best shot for a stage win would be the ITT, and that's a longshot too.

ed rader

It's not that the lead is exceptionally huge, it's who has the lead.

Imagine Tiger with a 3 stroke lead and 2 to play, or the Jordan Bulls up 6 with 2 minutes to go, or Federer with a 5-4 advantage in the final set, or Peyton Manning needing a single first down to ice the game.

Do you really think you're coming back? Really?

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.

Sastre came back in good form after being dropped today but I just don't see this happening. I think it will be similar to the Giro in that he will do well overall but have a significant gap between himself and the podium. Still, I'm a fan of his and would love to be wrong! Contador, on the other hand, looked like he could skip the rest day and still repeat today's performance.

I think Contador won the Tour today. Nobody can outclimb him. He's a decent TT rider and it would take a truly exceptional one to beat him there. And that exceptional one wouldn't likely be a climber. I think it's over.

The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.


he has dug himself into this hole. even if he has the leg in one of next week's stages, he cannot attack. he was the one who acted noble and claimed to be team player last week after AC's attack. now what will the world think of him if he attack his own race leader next week?

LA is finished.

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?



Cycling is a conventional sport.

Oh...and unless Contador gets sick or falls off, it's over..................

He might pick up time in the TT but given what happened today, will lose chunks of time on Ventoux to the top climbers.

Armstrong will probably lose time at the TT. He was 4th on his on team at the first TT, tenth overall. Contador is the Spanish national TT champion. Contador finished 2nd in the opening TT. There is no reason to believe that Lance is going to TT better than AC or even Kloden at this point.

Oh...and unless Contador gets sick or falls off, it's over..................

If lance shows up to the start with a frame pump, Contador better watch out.

The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.

If Lance was smart he would have been there to support Alberto in exchange for a breakaway on stage
20.

My guess is 50% chance Lance maintains #3 spot unless he is mentally defeated now then he could really fall hard. It may be in his best interest to lose big chunks of time for a shot at stage 20.

Richard

Richard, I'll put up $10 at 100 to one odds. Are you still so sure? A ten thousandth of a percent chance? Hey I am giving your great odds! Let's shake on it.

Richard, I'll put up $10 at 100 to one odds. Are you still so sure? A ten thousandth of a percent chance? Hey I am giving your great odds! Let's shake on it.

A fool and his money are soon parted...

A fool and his money are soon parted...

Why, you want a piece of the action too?

Well a couple of things you asked. I assume you don't like the answer. To bad.

Second I am not a bookie. I am not giving odds to anyone.

Third I don't really need $10 that badly. Certainly not enough to put up a grand. I play the lottery at astronomical odds. I know I won't win, but there is always a chance.

Richard


Richard, I'll put up $10 at 100 to one odds. Are you still so sure? A ten thousandth of a percent chance? Hey I am giving your great odds! Let's shake on it.

Why, you want a piece of the action too?

Reminds me of another one...he who argues with a fool is a fool...:lol:

Armstrong will probably lose time at the TT. He was 4th on his on team at the first TT, tenth overall. Contador is the Spanish national TT champion. Contador finished 2nd in the opening TT. There is no reason to believe that Lance is going to TT better than AC or even Kloden at this point.

The Stage 1 TT was a lot more hilly than the next one and it's not like Spain is well know for their TT specialists. However it shakes out, there is some reason to believe that Lance can TT faster.

Well a couple of things you asked. I assume you don't like the answer. To bad.

Second I am not a bookie. I am not giving odds to anyone.

Third I don't really need $10 that badly. Certainly not enough to put up a grand. I play the lottery at astronomical odds. I know I won't win, but there is always a chance.

Richard

Chicken!

Reminds me of another one...he who argues with a fool is a fool...:lol:

Chicken!

And after that statement I am looking for 1000 to one odds!

Well a couple of things you asked. I assume you don't like the answer. To bad.

Second I am not a bookie. I am not giving odds to anyone.

Third I don't really need $10 that badly. Certainly not enough to put up a grand. I play the lottery at astronomical odds. I know I won't win, but there is always a chance.

Richard

I never play the lottery. They say those that don't play have just a slightly worse chance of winning than those who do.

Now you are just being a knucklehead. But I tell you what. I will give you odds, but you have to make it worth my while. 10-1 odds you put up $1000, and I will put up $10,000.

Richard


Chicken!

The Stage 1 TT was a lot more hilly than the next one and it's not like Spain is well know for their TT specialists. However it shakes out, there is some reason to believe that Lance can TT faster.

No, there isn't. If you look at how Lance has been riding all year including this TdF, there isn't any reason to believe that he's going to TT better. He was 10th a the opening. In the past, he was very strong TT guy, irregardless of the course. Its 4 years later. He's 37. He's worked his ass off to get to this point. Its not like he's been holding back.

Contador is improving. He hasn't reached his prime yet. Him becoming the Spanish national TT champ shows that he's been dedicated to improving that area specifically. He was second at the opening TT. LA was 10th. Who do you think this past couple of weeks of racing has been harder on, AC or LA?

You can HOPE that Lance rides better, but objective observation of LA's racing THIS season would not indicate that he's going to gain time at the TT. Just like the climbing. He's been climbing well, but he can't attack like he used to. Period. Up until today, there were many that HOPED Lance would do well against Contador on the big climbs. But it really wasn't realistic to believe that he would be able to hang with him.

Now you are just being a knucklehead. But I tell you what. I will give you odds, but you have to make it worth my while. 10-1 odds you put up $1000, and I will put up $10,000.

Richard

I'll go with the original offer, I don't need the $10,000 that bad :giver:, but hey perhaps another fanboy might take you up on it!

I'll go with the original offer, I don't need the $10,000 that bad :giver:, but hey perhaps another fanboy might take you up on it!

I'll give you this, Julian. You deserve an award for actually coming around BF today and continuously waving the LA fanboy standard. Props to you. :thumb: Stay true to your game. :D

All of those other jokers probably turned off there tvs and will never tune into Versus channel ever again.

It seems that everyone thinks the Tour is over. Is Contador the strongest rider right now? Absolutely. Has misfortune struck before? Absolutely. Has heart won the Tour before? Absolutely. I'd say that Contador is in a fantastic position, but folks, there's a lot of Tour left...

Bryan

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?

Since the chance of a fall or crash or bad day in the Tour de France is quite high it is difficult to say. But if we through out those kinds of things and just look at the players the lead is large. If all the remaining mountain stages had an uphill finish the lead would be huge since Contador would in all probability be able to put time into the other top contenders in at least 3 out of 4 races.

However, since there is only one more uphill mountain top finish the lead is only large. But it is a stage were Contador can potentially gain even more time over his rivals. But it is also the kind of climb were Evans and Sastre will do well.

I would say the Armstrong has no advantage over Contador except maybe a sprint at the line on a down hill mountain finish.

However, the two downhill finish mountain stages are good for Armstrong in relation to the rest of the climbers because he can time trial to the finish faster than most of the climbers.

In more concrete terms, it is more like an 8 point lead in the last minute of the game rather than the third quarter.

http://www.mudvillegazette.com/milblogs/Karzai%20-%20This%20Big.jpg

Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.

Not so, in the history of the TDF only one other rider has come out of retirement and made it second on the podium. And that was a shorter retirement period. IF Lance takes second place after three full seasons off that will be considered one of the greatest TDF comebacks in history.

As far as I know. No one has taken three years off and even made the podium.

I'll give you this, Julian. You deserve an award for actually coming around BF today and continuously waving the LA fanboy standard. Props to you. :thumb: Stay true to your game. :D

All of those other jokers probably turned off there tvs and will never tune into Versus channel ever again.

Oh, I never take stuff that seriously. I learned long ago never to let anyone else ruin my day.
And give the Lance fans a lot of credit. The masses make it possible for us to watch the tour. I just wanted more excitement than for just one day.

http://www.mudvillegazette.com/milblogs/Karzai%20-%20This%20Big.jpg

http://www.fototime.com/BE58EB6BB118189/standard.jpg

:D

ed rader

No, there isn't. If you look at how Lance has been riding all year including this TdF, there isn't any reason to believe that he's going to TT better. He was 10th a the opening. In the past, he was very strong TT guy, irregardless of the course. Its 4 years later. He's 37. He's worked his ass off to get to this point. Its not like he's been holding back.

Contador is improving. He hasn't reached his prime yet. Him becoming the Spanish national TT champ shows that he's been dedicated to improving that area specifically. He was second at the opening TT. LA was 10th. Who do you think this past couple of weeks of racing has been harder on, AC or LA?

You can HOPE that Lance rides better, but objective observation of LA's racing THIS season would not indicate that he's going to gain time at the TT. Just like the climbing. He's been climbing well, but he can't attack like he used to. Period. Up until today, there were many that HOPED Lance would do well against Contador on the big climbs. But it really wasn't realistic to believe that he would be able to hang with him.

I'm not saying...or even hoping...that Armstrong WILL do better in the ITT but he the margin in Stage 1 was only 22 seconds over a course that was better suited to Contador's strength do to its hilly profile. From what I've watched, Armstrong is a better bike handler and has an advantage when navigating through technical turns at high speeds. Plus there is the experience factor. Again, I'm not saying he's the favorite but to say that there is "no reason" to believe that LA can beat AC in the upcoming TT is simply not correct.

By the way, I think you meant "regardless" not "irregardless"

I'm not saying...or even hoping...that Armstrong WILL do better in the ITT but he the margin in Stage 1 was only 22 seconds over a course that was better suited to Contador's strength do to its hilly profile. From what I've watched, Armstrong is a better bike handler and has an advantage when navigating through technical turns at high speeds. Plus there is the experience factor. Again, I'm not saying he's the favorite but to say that there is "no reason" to believe that LA can beat AC in the upcoming TT is simply not correct.

By the way, I think you meant "

The margin was only 22 seconds because it was a shorter course. Stage 1 was 15k with a cat 4 hill. Stage 18 is 40K and still has a cat 3 hill in it. Stage 1 was more technical from a handling stand point. So the advantage should have been with Lance there. Stage 18 is more flat but the climb potion is shorter but steeper. I don't really see how that works to Lance's advantage. Experience is what is working against Lance. 37 year old experienced legs. Contador is no longer just a climbing specialist. He's an accomplished TT'er.

Is is possible that Lance pulls one out of his ass and wins the TT, sure. Contador could crash, have a flat, etc. Barring an incident, though, no. Based upon what has transpired during this Tour and the rest of the season, its not reasonable to expect LA is going beat Contador at the TT. To expect such, would be to discount all that has transpired this season and solely rely upon what Lance has accomplished in years gone by.

"regardless" not "irregardless"....you know what I mean :lol:

Contador would have to pull a Rasmussen on the ITT to lose it now. Or pull a Rasmussen in a different way. Or pull an Armstrong and forget to eat, and bonk on stage 17.

I was talking to a friend today. He claimed Armstrong was playing possum. His contention was that you never saw him get out of the saddle and dance on the pedals. Why was he glued to his seat? Just asking.