Professional Cycling For the Fans - Best strategies for non-Astana GC contenders?

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mcarcaise
07-20-09, 11:12 PM
We have seen two overwhelming displays of brilliance from Contador. Nobody would be surprised if he didn't relinquish the yellow jersey for the remainder. He is clearly the strongest rider in the Tour and has the strongest team. But I need to believe that there is still an opportunity for Schleck or Wiggins or Sastre to make a run. Please, somebody well-versed in bike racing tactics convince me.
Of the non-AC/non-LA GC contenders, who has the best shot? And what are the most likely scenarios in which they find success?
How can the non-Astana teams cooperate to unseat AC?
How should Astana use their team to defend against such attacks?
OrionKhan
07-20-09, 11:31 PM
We have seen two overwhelming displays of brilliance from Contador. Nobody would be surprised if he didn't relinquish the yellow jersey for the remainder. He is clearly the strongest rider in the Tour and has the strongest team. But I need to believe that there is still an opportunity for Schleck or Wiggins or Sastre to make a run. Please, somebody well-versed in bike racing tactics convince me.
Of the non-AC/non-LA GC contenders, who has the best shot? And what are the most likely scenarios in which they find success?
How can the non-Astana teams cooperate to unseat AC?
How should Astana use their team to defend against such attacks?
Andy Schleck and Wiggins have the best shots. But Contador is a serious problem. Schleck has shown that he's the only one that can limit the damage done by AC on a climb. But AC can TT better than him. Wiggins can probably equal or maybe better AC on the TT. Wiggins is climbing well, but Mt. Ventoux is going to be a big challenge for him to hang with AC, let alone take time. Neither one of those guys would even be allowed to sniff a breakaway. So unless bad things happen to Contador, he's looking very strong.
Schleck and Wiggins will be serious threats to Astana attempts at multiple podium spots. Both of those guys are capable at beating out Armstrong and Kloden. Especially if Astana continues to task Kloden with pacing LA up the climbs. We'll probably see more a battle for 2nd and 3rd than anyone really trying to take on AC.
I think what Saxo Bank did on Sunday actually worked pretty well - they ramped up the pace so fast it toasted off all but a few guys, then they launched Schleck. Of course Contador was already gone up the mountain, but they took time out of everyone else and basically took control away from Astana.
That's about their only shot I think, and Contador has had a bad day or two in the mountains, so just maybe he's beatable. That's kind of like saying, if you want to win you have to race.
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