Professional Cycling For the Fans - The battle for 3rd place

With only one more stage (stage 20, ending with Mont Ventoux) likely to impact the podium, Contador and A.Schleck seem secure in 1st and 2nd place, as they are the two best climbers and have large leads over the rest. It seems to me that 3rd place is up for grabs.

1. Contador
2. A.Schleck, +4:11
3. Armstrong, +5:25
4. Wiggins, +5:36
5. Kloden, +5:38
6. F.Schleck, +5:59

4 riders separated by 34 seconds. Who do you think takes it? Will Kloden have to ride to protect Armstrong?

Tough call between LA and Wiggo. Think LA will inch it on Ventoux.

Don't count out Frank.

If Frank can recover enough by Saturday, I think he can gain enough time on the 3 others to squeak into 3rd place, as he is the best pure climber of the four riders fighting for 3rd place.

I don't think Andy has enough time on the other four to consider his position secure just yet.

But ruling that out, I'd like to say Kloden, but if it's a close race between him and Armstrong I don't think Kloden would fight for it due to his historical role as a #2. Frank has been impressive, but has really been riding for his brother and I expect that to take a toll. On stages 16 and 17 Lance surprised me with his late pushes in the climbs, so I think he is still my favorite for 3rd.

Tough call between LA and Wiggo. Think LA will inch it on Ventoux.

i think wiggens is finished. kloden is as strong as lance, maybe stronger. but does the submissive german have the huevos to ride for himself? i also wouldn't count out fschreck but lance does have a good shot at third monkey if he doesn't crack.

ed rader

I think Armstrong will likely hold onto third. Wiggins has been impressive, but was dropped pretty badly yesterday. And while he's been able to hang on the wheel of the leaders most stages, he hasn't show that he can attack and make up time on the better climbers.

Kloden isn't going to attack to make up time. He'll stick with Lance and probably ride support for him.

That leaves Frank Schleck. He might be a strong enough climber to drop Lance, but he'll have to do it all on his own. Andy is too far out of first to have any shot at it, so his goal is going to be to ride defensively. He only has a minute on Armstrong, so he's not going to spend his energy towing Frank (and Lance) up the mountain, risking his own podium spot. So Frank is going to have to be strong enough to attack on his own and drop the pair of Armstrong and Kloden working together. My bet would be against that.

Edit: The wildcard would be if Lance tried to attack to move up to second. If he did that, he could blow himself out and be vulnerable to a counterattack from Frank. But given the low likelihood that Lance would be able to outclimb Andy and get a full minute on him, I'd say Lance will also probably be riding defensively just to preserve his podium finish.

I think that the Schleks will again attack and get 2nd and 3rd. As long as Andy is clear from getting himself into trouble, he will work with Frank to drop Lance. So, unless Lance can keep Andy worried, he will get tested. If LA is dropped, the twins will cover the time gap.

So will Contador ride for himself or for more Astana presence on the podium? And if he rides for himself, will Johan still be pleased?

I think that the Schleks will again attack and get 2nd and 3rd. As long as Andy is clear from getting himself into trouble, he will work with Frank to drop Lance. So, unless Lance can keep Andy worried, he will get tested. If LA is dropped, the twins will cover the time gap.

i believe that's the most likely outcome.

ed rader

So will Contador ride for himself or for more Astana presence on the podium? And if he rides for himself, will Johan still be pleased?

i think contador will ride for the win....i hope he attacks if he has the legs. if he does that and is successful, bruyneel will have to at least pretend like he's pleased .

ed rader

I don't see Wiggins making it. He can not pull back time on a climb against the others. He might be able to jump away on stage 19 (yes 19) and get the seconds needed to climb into third before stage 20. Then he would have a slim chance of hanging on. That or catching a Schleck wheel that others miss.

Otherwise it is a tough call. If both Schlecks have the legs I think Frank for third. But it ahs to be both. If Andy is not feeling in topp form I don't see Frank attacking and putting Andy's second at risk. But my guess is Andy will be more willing to risk for Frank than any other rider would in a similar team situation.

i think contador will ride for the win....i hope he attacks if he has the legs. if he does that and is successful, bruyneel will have to at least pretend like he's pleased .

ed rader

Yep.

Ventoux is arguably the most prestigious climb to win at the TdF, I expect AC won't let his chance to put his name on it pass. That and he's also racing for next year's meal ticket, and a win on Ventoux won't hurt his negotiation leverage.

Were talking about Ventoux, right? I don't think AC attacks. He sticks with Lance and Kloden until the Schlecks attack and they all go up together. Who comes in third, I have no idea...it is going to an awesome stage. Though he doesn't have a chance for the podium, I think Sastre takes the stage.

Remember something - Ventoux is the one major TdF climb that Lance hasn't won a stage on. Given that AC's lead is pretty safe at this point (he'd have to *really* bonk for A. Schleck to have a shot at him, and if he were in that much trouble, Lance towing him up the climb probably wouldn't be enough), Lance can ride for himself, and something tells me he's going to give it everything to get the stage win. Interesting to see if he has the legs left for it. Plus, given the rumblings about AC's alleged failings as a teammate (dropping Kloden being only the latest example), I think it'd be in his long-term interest to make a point of helping out a teammate, assuming it costs him nothing as far as this year's results.

I think it's between Lance and Frank. Frank proved yesterday that he can out climb Lance this year especially with the help of Andy and Alberto. Lance's biggest hope is Frank is more tired than he is. They both look spent.

P.S. Somehow I don't see any Astana member helping Contador tomorrow. Not that he needs it now.

I think it's between Lance and Frank. Frank proved yesterday that he can out climb Lance this year especially with the help of Andy and Alberto. Lance's biggest hope is Frank is more tired than he is. They both look spent.

P.S. Somehow I don't see any Astana member helping Contador tomorrow. Not that he needs it now.

I doubt that. All of Astana will be there to help AC if he needs it. The last thing Astana wants to do now is to lose the yellow. In spite of the conspiracy theorists out there, outside of AC Astana is not well placed to threaten for the lead.

Armstrong is stronger than both Wiggens and Kloden but hasn't been climbing as well as the Shlecks. It is a long mountain and if they go hard from the bottom, I don't think anyone can hang with AC or the Bros.

I think Contador blows the roof off the race and wins on Ventoux by 1'30" or more. I just can't imagine a situation where he lets this race end on a historic climb without him winning the stage, and if he goes on Ventoux it'll be like Angliru last year ... he's shatter the peleton and win by a huge margin.

How people react after that will be interesting. I don't know if Frank can make up enough time on Lance to knock him off the podium. I think Lance will literally ride himself to death on Ventoux to not lose his place.

All it takes is for lance to have a bad day at all and kloeden or wiggo could have it. Wiggins has done bad in the mountains so far so I wouldn't count him out yet IMO

I think Contador has a massive incentive to win the Mont Ventoux stage in the Tour, and that's not something many riders can say they've done, and who knows if he'll get a better opportunity than this, where his lead is so large that he can afford to take a run at it, and even if he cracks a little, still hold the yellow jersey.

Plus, I don't think he gives a damn about JB and LA after the way they managed things for Lance until AC won the stage the other day. He's not riding for them next year anyway.

What will be interesting is if he goes, can Frank get on his wheel? And the uproar that would cause if Contador paces Frank to 3rd place.

I think Contador blows the roof off the race and wins on Ventoux by 1'30" or more. I just can't imagine a situation where he lets this race end on a historic climb without him winning the stage, and if he goes on Ventoux it'll be like Angliru last year ... he's shatter the peleton and win by a huge margin.

How people react after that will be interesting. I don't know if Frank can make up enough time on Lance to knock him off the podium. I think Lance will literally ride himself to death on Ventoux to not lose his place.

“Put me back on my bike!”

http://www.fototime.com/006755F2E23628B/orig.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtAyGvZqiwk

ed rader

Contador goes for the win if he has the shot. A win on Ventoux is, arguably, the most prestigious win there is. Any Tour champion wants it. Also, if Contador gifts it there's no guarantee he'll get another shot.

Ask Armstrong. He gave Ventoux to Pantani in '99. As we all know Armstrong won 6 more Yellows but never got his win on Ventoux. For that reason if LA can attack and take the win he will but I don't know if that opportunity will be there.


:beer:

Frank

i think contador will ride for the win....i hope he attacks if he has the legs. if he does that and is successful, bruyneel will have to at least pretend like he's pleased .

ed rader

such a hater

I think that AC will win the stage and I hope he has the brains to simply mark everyone until the final Km or so and then accelerate away for the victory. That would be the smart play but I'm skeptical.

For all of the folks who think he's gotten no support from Lance, Kloden and the rest of Astana...I wonder if you will be as hard on him as you were on them if he again goes off on his own and screws up his teammates' shot at the podium. That's really the more likely scenario.

My predicition is AC, LA and AK will get to the bottom of Mt. V. at the front of the peleton. AC will turn to LA and AK and in near perfect English, with just a hint of Spanish accent, will say "C'mon boys...I'm gonna haul your ass up this hill and onto the podium with me." They'll ascend like has never been seen before, literally blowing riders from failed break-aways off the road as they race by. They'll cross the line three-abreast and together, fire the pistol of victory at the adoring crowds and in unison, shout "This one's for you Levi!". I can't wait.

i think wiggens is finished. kloden is as strong as lance, maybe stronger. but does the submissive german have the huevos to ride for himself? i also wouldn't count out fschreck but lance does have a good shot at third monkey if he doesn't crack.

ed rader

I think pretty much everyone but AC and AS will crack on Ventoux. The real entertainment will be seeing who of the four riders will vie for 3rd place. Unless Columbia does something crazy and sends Hincapie on a break the day before and he goes into the yellow jersey.

They'll cross the line three-abreast and together, fire the pistol of victory at the adoring crowds and in unison, shout "This one's for you Levi!". I can't wait.

I like that one.

Remember something - Ventoux is the one major TdF climb that Lance hasn't won a stage on. Given that AC's lead is pretty safe at this point (he'd have to *really* bonk for A. Schleck to have a shot at him, and if he were in that much trouble, Lance towing him up the climb probably wouldn't be enough), Lance can ride for himself, and something tells me he's going to give it everything to get the stage win. Interesting to see if he has the legs left for it. Plus, given the rumblings about AC's alleged failings as a teammate (dropping Kloden being only the latest example), I think it'd be in his long-term interest to make a point of helping out a teammate, assuming it costs him nothing as far as this year's results.

He "gifted" it to Pantani in 2000, which apparently caused a flurry of controversy and po'd Pantani. I think it was the origin of the LA "no gifts" policy. I don't think he's ever liked that climb, nor has anyone else. I expect theSchlecks to take it, and behind for AC to tow whichever teammates can follow him up the hill fastest, making up for the Kloden thing.

I predict that AC will tow LA up Ventoux and get a spot on Team Radioshack next season.

I predict that AC will tow LA up Ventoux and get a spot on Team Radioshack next season.

Has AC every done anything for anyone else? Certainly not this tour.

AC knows that he can win major tours with the support of the strongest team in pro racing. There is no doubt that he is the strongest tour rider but will he be able to repeat that success on a lesser team? Maybe his best bet for winning tours is to stay with JB but at some point JB, who has more success in his job as DS than AC in his job as rider, will want AC to mature a little and start listening.

I think that TT took allot out of FS. Unless he can recover well on today's (7/24) stage, I see him fading on Ventoux. Never under estimate the mental strength of LA. He wants that podium spot, and Ventoux holds a special place for him, his "white whale," he probably won't win the stage, but he will be going all out up that climb.

i think contador will ride for the win....i hope he attacks if he has the legs. if he does that and is successful, bruyneel will have to at least pretend like he's pleased .

ed rader

This is what AC will do.


Were talking about Ventoux, right? I don't think AC attacks. He sticks with Lance and Kloden until the Schlecks attack and they all go up together. Who comes in third, I have no idea...it is going to an awesome stage.

This is what AC should do.



I predict that AC will tow LA up Ventoux and get a spot on Team Radioshack next season.


This is delusional.

Not that I would want AC & AS to, say, fail drug tests today or anything, but w/o them we'd have 4 guys w/in about 40 seconds of each other climbing up Ventoux to win the Tour. That would be epic. Beyond epic. (But watching them battle it out for 3rd will still be pretty cool.)

My predicition is AC, LA and AK will get to the bottom of Mt. V. at the front of the peleton. AC will turn to LA and AK and in near perfect English, with just a hint of Spanish accent, will say "C'mon boys...I'm gonna haul your ass up this hill and onto the podium with me." They'll ascend like has never been seen before, literally blowing riders from failed break-aways off the road as they race by. They'll cross the line three-abreast and together, fire the pistol of victory at the adoring crowds and in unison, shout "This one's for you Levi!". I can't wait.

Post of the month?

“Put me back on my bike!”

http://www.fototime.com/006755F2E23628B/orig.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtAyGvZqiwk

ed rader

That was in pretty poor taste there.

That was in pretty poor taste there.

Indeed, only the lowest class, heartless scum would want to post a pic of a dead guy and the video of it. Yes, we all know at one point long ago someone died on Ventoux, no reason to post pics of the incident.

Indeed, only the lowest class, heartless scum would want to post a pic of a dead guy and the video of it. Yes, we all know at one point long ago someone died on Ventoux, no reason to post pics of the incident.

Maybe or maybe not. The warning is real. Better in my opinion to ride past the memorial, showing respect, than to stop and leave another water bottle or cap...

He "gifted" it to Pantani in 2000, which apparently caused a flurry of controversy and po'd Pantani.
The secret to making a gift like that appreciated is to not blab it to the press at the post-stage interviews. Of course, the suddenness of Lance's soft-pedaling just before the finish was pretty hard to miss, too, but I don't think Lance would have it any other way.

I don't blame Pantani for being pissed.

Here's what Contador should do--pace Lance to the finish, soft-pedal across the line, and then tell everyone he gifted it because he wanted Lance to have the Ventoux victory he sacrificed in 2000.

My predicition is AC, LA and AK will get to the bottom of Mt. V. at the front of the peleton. AC will turn to LA and AK and in near perfect English, with just a hint of Spanish accent, will say "C'mon boys...I'm gonna haul your ass up this hill and onto the podium with me." They'll ascend like has never been seen before, literally blowing riders from failed break-aways off the road as they race by. They'll cross the line three-abreast and together, fire the pistol of victory at the adoring crowds and in unison, shout "This one's for you Levi!". I can't wait.

:D Nothing would make me happier. (Ilike bobcat's too)

Originally Posted by vadimivich I think Lance will literally ride himself to death on Ventoux to not lose his place.

“Put me back on my bike!”

http://www.fototime.com/006755F2E23628B/orig.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtAyGvZqiwk

ed rader

Poor taste, Ed. But still kinda funny.

That is probably a pretty accurate assessment of how Lance will ride Ventoux. The Schlecks should take it out hard early. The longer the let Lance linger with them, the more dangerous he'll become. I wouldn't be surprised to see Saxo Bank at the front of the peloton trying to shred it apart heading up to the climb.