Professional Cycling For the Fans - Stage 15 Valreas - Villard-de-Lans

July 20 180.5 km

.....

We won't see the same kind of domination on Tuesday by USPS that we saw on Friday and Saturday...will we? Will we? Personally, I hope not. I'd like to see a plethora of attacks by the usual suspects, and a pitched battle over the last two climbs.

Could be an interesting battle at the front between USPS and CSC. Hopefully, Julich is okay. He could be very valuable to Basso.

yah, I'd say we are going to see the same type of high paced ride
that USPS is famous for. I don't think we will see alot of all out attacks
by Lance & Co. unless one of the other current GC contenders is
in trouble.
Predict that Virenque, king of the cat4 climbs will take the first 3 climbers
points and then disappear into the pack for the rest of the ride.

Marty

I think we will see USP laying low unless they are either forced to respond to a GC threat, or they see Basso having trouble. They *might* try to pull a bit on the long Cat 2 mountin in the end, but only if the events require it.

Julich's injury is quite bad. He couldnt even change gears on the last stage, so I don't think you'll see him helping Basso much. More likely, it will be Sastre. And if CSC want to attack Armstrong it will be through a tandem thing with Sastre going first.

I think we will see Rasmussen (again) having an attempt at breaking away, as well as at least one Euskatel rider (they really need this). I could also see Totschnig or Simoni try something as they are too far from the podium if they don't try something on their own.

I think we will see USP laying low unless they are either forced to respond to a GC threat, or they see Basso having trouble. They *might* try to pull a bit on the long Cat 2 mountin in the end, but only if the events require it.

....

That makes sense to me. It will be the day before the ITT up Alpe D'Huez. Does it make sense to try to conserve for the ITT, then ride hard in the ITT and Stage 17? Stage 17 looks rough. What is the hardest stage in the tour, 17 looks rough too me?

Do we know who wins the tour at the end of Stage 17? I would think so discounting some really extraordinary occurrance.

i have a question:
do lance and USP have to put time into anybody other than Basso at this point? it seems to be a not-so-complicated situation for them if there is only one real threat for GC at this point.

you'd think they could really play it by ear on some level, especially considering the TT is the very next day and LA has nothing to hide from or be scared of on either day.

it seems to my uneducated eyes like lance just has so much more team strength that they can weed out almost all suprise moves by just 'tightening the screw' as phil likes to say. i think girochin has the right strategy.

when Lance was saying about basso, 'i couldn't shake him' after stage 13 - i dunno, it felt more like 'i decided not to put a lot into shaking him'.

honestly, he's such a stone-faced climber that guy - i have no clue how much he had left in the tank or what he could really have put on basso if the chips were down.

next couple of days are gonna be great to watch though, that much is certain. i'd like to see somebody stay organized enough to really bring it to USP and force them to answer.

Euskatel just never ceases to disappoint in this race, huh? they haven't had a shining moment at all, have they?

I agree with Marty on the stage. They have nothing to hide, but will keep a high pace to keep the group in check. Watch for Volkler to work hard agin to stay in yellow. I look for him in the future as he is a good rider. Basso and Klooden are the ones to watch today. On the mountian TT also. Not sure who else will be a force here. That is one killer stage I would not like to try as a TT!

Mayo didn't start today.

Jan has attacked!!

Jan has attacked!!

I'm glad to see he's feeling good enough to attack and he hasn't given up.

It's still early, but I would love to see a stage win for Jan today. And I'm still picking him for a podium finish.

I think Lance will try to take the yellow jersey so he is last in the ITT.

USPS will indeed "tighten the screws" up the climbs. I look for maybe a little "acceleration" up what looks like a climb at the end, even though it's not catagorized.

CSC doesn't need to do anything since USPS will take complete control of the race. Basso doesn't need any teammates unless he has some problems or gets the yellow. Basso just needs to sit on LA's wheel and wait for a sign of weakness (which may not come until next week :D )

-murray

Jan is now 41" ahead of Lance...

Jan is now 41" ahead of Lance...

Ullrich takes a flyer off the front and I have to go to work! :mad:

Thank God for the VCR!

Jan has attacked!!

He attacked on the second climb, which is a tough one! Has anyone noticed Jan's pedal cadence?! It is NOT the big gear diesel cadence of a couple of days ago! Wow! Does Jan have an Ace in his jersey pocket?! Was he faking defeat? Yes! I tell you!

USPS needs to sit up and take notice, based on his increased pedal cadence, I don't think this is a last ditch effort by Jan.
:eek:

allez Ullrich!

allez Ullrich is right! Go Jan!

Lance is virtual yellow as Voekler has finally popped. Shame I was getting to
really like the guy, he's got pluck.
Jan is fighting for pride etc. I don't see him taking yellow but I do see him
clawing his way up to a podium spot.
I think one of the big factors in this is the fact that all of the big names
(with the exception of Lance) are out of contention. Jan can still reach
podium so I think he is gonna go for it. Good to see him make a race
of it and not just bail like Mayo did.
Marty

Jan has been reeled in! I guess I was fooled! That's one reason I wasn't choosen to be on the USPS team...that and I'm 50 years young! :)

USPS totally in control. No panic, no worry, no problem.

I see Jan taking 3rd or 2nd overall after the final time trial.

All thing remaining constant, Was Armstrong going to be in yellow before Ullrich's attack? How was Voekler doing before Jan blew the stage open?

Yes, Lance was going to be in yellow before Jan's attack. Voeckler was around 2'30" behind the Armstrong group before Jan attacked.

Wow! I never thought today's stage would be so exciting.

Lance did it again !!!!

What a race ! He's the BIG BOSS !

Corsaire

WOW. What a great finish!

Lance did it again!

Corsaire

Lance did it again !!!!

What a race ! He's the BIG BOSS !

Corsaire



HECK YEA! Best stage ever i'd say. Dudes amazing at acc. I love him

he's not going to give anybody anything.

if basso can't do any better than 2nd to him on a stage like that - before the TT no less.

man oh man....

Predict that Virenque, king of the cat4 climbs will take the first 3 climbers
points and then disappear into the pack for the rest of the ride.

Marty

..... :roflmao:.....No cat4 climbs on this stage. Must be why he did so well.... :rolleyes:

Deleted since merged under new thread.

These were the 10 of the "Guillotin"

16 H 48 - The Top 10 In Stage 15
The top 10 places for the 180.5km 15th stage from Valreas to Villard-de-Lans is:
1. Lance Armstrong (USP) 180.5km in 4h40'30" (38.609km/h)
2. Ivan Basso (CSC) at same time
3. Jan Ullrich (TMO) at 03"
4. Andreas Kloden (TMO) at 06"
5. Levi Leipheimer (RAB) at 13"
6. Richard Virenque (QSD) at 48"
7. Mickael Rasmussen (RAB) at 49"
8. Jose Azevedo (USP) at 53"
9. Jens Voigt (CSC) at 1'04"
10. Carlos Sastre (CSC) at 1'24"

WOW!!! You gotta love bke racing at this level, just the best! Armstrong came from behind after being in 9th place. He waited to see who will the surgers be....

What a performance today by Ulrich too, and Azevedo is very impressive as well, not to talk about Basso.

Corsaire :)

Can't you put announcments like that in a place OTHER than the title? Some of us like to watch later...:(

Yeah no kidding, there was already a thread created for this stage...

How about those who claim retirement for Lance, hey! he's 32 but he's got it man!
Corsaire

I was impressed with Ullrich's ride, but I think it was a mistake for him to have attacked earlier. One of the knocks on him has always been tactical judgment. Did he really think he was strong enough to ride away? If he hadn't wasted that energy, who knows how things might have gone. And Basso! What can you say?

I was impressed with Ullrich's ride, but I think it was a mistake for him to have attacked earlier. One of the knocks on him has always been tactical judgment. Did he really think he was strong enough to ride away? If he hadn't wasted that energy, who knows how things might have gone. And Basso! What can you say?

Do you think he may have attacked to make things easier for Kloden?

Edited to add: Ullrich's move today meant that Kloden did not have to chase down any breaks or set the pace. All he had to do was follow the wheels of the other riders. Jan may well have been playing a similar role to the role Vino played for T-Mobile last year.

I think Ullrich is now riding for Kloden. He might have just wanted to create some panicking in the Blue Train and force them to use some energy they would have preferred to save for the next couple of stages. In the process he moved up in the standings and will probably end up in the 4th place in Paris.

So much for the boring tour predicted after Ulrich faltered and Hamilton dropped out. Man if Hamilton hadn't gotten injured...

Do you think he may have attacked to make things easier for Kloden?

I thought one of the announcers mentioned his strategy was likely a poker type move, trying to scare LA and pull him out of his game, hoping he would follow. Something like that.

Do you think he may have attacked to make things easier for Kloden?
Don, I actually think he was winding up that big diesel for the final sprint :D

I have no clue, whats up with Jans attacks? like last year on the Tourmalet no tactical
sense if you asked me.

Marty

How about those who claim retirement for Lance, hey! he's 32 but he's got it man!
Corsaire

Hey now! 32 aint old.

I thought one of the announcers mentioned his strategy was likely a poker type move, trying to scare LA and pull him out of his game, hoping he would follow. Something like that.


I think Phil was implying that Jan may have hoped Lance went with him. If Lance did, then the two could have worked and Jan could have worked his way toward the podium without taking time out of Lance (which he would not have allowed). Lance, of course, didn't see the benefit for him because he knows he can put time into Basso on the two remaining TTs.

I was impressed with Ullrich's ride, but I think it was a mistake for him to have attacked earlier. One of the knocks on him has always been tactical judgment. Did he really think he was strong enough to ride away? If he hadn't wasted that energy, who knows how things might have gone. And Basso! What can you say?

He did what he had to do.. he is 7 mins down. If he doesnt attack he wont catch up, the only way to know if Armstrong is having a bad day is to test him. How about if in 4 year Lance writes a book and says he was feeling weak on this stage and he wouldnt have been able to keep up with an attack. Ullrich is too far behind, he has more to gain than to lose now, still there is a guy better situated than him in the T-Mobile, so its all gain for him really. I read he knows this Alpes really well and that he knows where to attack, so Im pretty sure this attack at that point was talked before hand.

It was a great great stage today! really exciting.. my favorite so far.

Did you guys see the USPS car handing over a letter/note to the CSC car?? What do you think about the stragegy of both teams pulling together to catch up on Ullrich? One of the Spanish commentators was really angry cause Voigt was pulling them, he said that they should let the USPS pull and tired them down. In that way Basso might have a better chance against Armstrong in the future.

The other commentator said that it the USPS at this point in time has no real fear of Ullrich catching up on Lance and that CSC did a smart thing cause Ullrich is a contender to over take Basso for 2nd place. So by doing what they did today they helped USPS not getting so tired but took out Ullrich's possibilities of 2nd place overall. Kinda of conceiding first place but asuring the 2nd.

What do u guys think?

CSC rocks.

Unless Leipheimer has a bad day, he should get his 2nd top ten finish in the last 3 TDF. I think he should push Caucchioli out of the 9th spot and Voeckler out of 8th, and possibly even Totschnig out of the 7th spot, depending on how Totschnig and Leipheimer climb the next few days. They're both good time trialers, so Levi may not be able to get past Totschnig. If he can "leip" over these riders and finish 7th, he will surpass his 8th place finish in 2002.

The other commentator said that it the USPS at this point in time has no real fear of Ullrich catching up on Lance and that CSC did a smart thing cause Ullrich is a contender to over take Basso for 2nd place. So by doing what they did today they helped USPS not getting so tired but took out Ullrich's possibilities of 2nd place overall. Kinda of conceiding first place but asuring the 2nd.

What do u guys think?

It could also be said that USPS didn't care about a stage win (unless they arrived as a leading bunch, of course, with the time bonuses), while CSC would be more hungry for it.

T-Mobile had two riders at the end. Wouldn't it have made more sense to have one of them attack on that final climb, instead of having Kloden basically lead it out for Armstrong and Basso?

I believe that the race right now is for 2nd and 3rd place so JimCR's post makes
sense. While Basso might be a threat to overall GC in mountains I don't think he
will hold in the final TT. Jan however is a threat both on mountains and TT so any
time that can be put into him works both for CSC and USPS.
Great tactical stage.
My wife called and mentioned the "something" passed between team cars.
Not sure what that is all about but I'm sure it will cause an uproar
I bet T-Mobile is sure curious about it.
Marty

If anyone thinks that Bjarney is racing for second, they have under estimated him as a DS. With Basso only 1'25" down on LA, Bjarne has conceded nothing. I think he will attack USPS in the upcoming stages, and while I think it is unlikely that Basso will win Yellow, I am confident CSC will not give up trying to the last. Bjarne has shown himself to be a savvy DS, and should not be under estimated.

The reason why Bjarne worked with Johan today in closing the gap to Jan was to prevent T-Mobile from taking the lead in the Team competition, which CSC leads by 55", coincidentally the gap Ullrich was maintaining on his break.