July 8 200.5 km

.....

Prediction: Lance keeps yellow, and Zabel gets closer to green.

I want to see cipo have a good run at it. Who knows where peta is.

Voigt and Zabel go out on an early break. As usual, it comes together but Voigt moves into the top 10.

Seriously! I would love to see Cipo get it, and if not him, then Petacchi. But for sure, I got a sore spot for Cipo. I'm still laughing when I think back to the prologue, when they cut to Cipo standing in his TT outfit and seeing his managers with scissors cutting out the legs so he would have shorts. He is all flash sometimes.

I hope he never retires, he really makes the race a lot of fun to watch.

Koffee

Oh yeah, McEwen gets the stage. If not him, an AG2R rider. Take your pick.

I'm still waiting for my man Hondo.

G'day,

would appear to be another sprinters stage....although sooner or later one of the breaks has gotta stick. Appears so far that CSC & cofidis want to go every day.For that reason, i'm picking Stewie O'grady for a 150km break & win the stage (hopefully)

cheers,

Hitchy

Pretty optimistic there Hitchy. Stewie is having trouble staying on the bike, let alone win a stage. Although, that coulda got him fired up.
I still remember that stage last year where he ran out of gas just 500m from the finish. If anyone deserves a stage win, it's O'Grady.

Baden Cooke has been pretty quite so far. I wonder what the deal is there?

McEwen and Zabel at the wire. McEwen is riding great and Zabel seems to be rounding into form.

Pretty optimistic there Hitchy. Stewie is having trouble staying on the bike, let alone win a stage. Although, that coulda got him fired up.
I still remember that stage last year where he ran out of gas just 500m from the finish. If anyone deserves a stage win, it's O'Grady.

Baden Cooke has been pretty quite so far. I wonder what the deal is there?


G'day Tigerboy,

yeah....Stewie is struggling alright....he wants a stage badly though, for Whitey as much as anything else. I reckon he might have a go. Cookie is having to work to hard before the last 500m just to stay in the 'line', he's pretty much buggered when the sprint starts. it doesn't help that Mcgee can hardly sit on the bike. Don't forget SBS sunday nite....stage 8 10.30pm till stumps!...guess I'll be late to work Monday!,

cheers,

Hitchy

My green jersey pick is O'Grady.. it's still early in the Tour yet, guys. Give Stuey a break. I'd like to see either him or Zabel take the stage.

I would LOVE to see Zabel win another maillot vert just as much as I want to see O'Grady win his first.

I picked Backstedt for the cobbled stage wins, but no luck. Ahh, there's still hope though. If not, either Voeckler or Nazon (again).

I will go with Robbie as he is still in the right place at the right time as of late. Want to see O'Grady in the fight at least once.

14 H 20 - Peloton In Beauvais
At the site of the 1st intermediate sprint the peloton's deficit to the five leaders is 12'04".

14 H 17 - Lead Continues To Grow
After going on the attack at the 16km mark, Sandy Casar (FDJ), Jakob Piil (CSC), Stuart O'Grady (COF), Thomas Voeckler (BLB) and Magnus Backstedt (ALB) are now well clear of the peloton.
The latest check has the five escapees 11'35" ahead of main pack.

Newsflashes
Previous stage standings




14 H 38 - 120km To Go
The leading quintet has 120km to race. All five are cooperating in the pace-setting duties and their advantage on the peloton is now at 14'30".

14 H 37 - Advantage Over 14 Minutes
The five-man escape group are now 14'30" ahead of the peloton. Rain is falling on the roads between Amiens and Chartres and it appears that it could be a similar scene to the eighth stage of the 2001 Tour when a group of 14 riders put over half an hour into the peloton by the finish in Pontarlier. That day was a very wet stage that included Stuart O'Grady (who ended the day by claiming the yellow jersey).
Today, however, the best-placed rider in the escape group is Thomas Voeckler.

seems extremely windy, like 40 miles from the front...

I think Stewie takes the stage, Voekler takes ol yeller and
the peloton finish 2 minutes down from the break after a
valiant chase lead by Fasso and Lotto.

Marty

This is the most nervous tour I've ever seen.

They just showed some pictures of the breakaway group and it's truly amazing how big Backstedt is to be riding the tour. I always knew he was around 200 lbs., but when you see him next to some of the other riders he looks like a giant.

Nice call with O'Grady

This is the most nervous tour I've ever seen.

This is awful
Last year plus the weather, I guess.

They just showed some pictures of the breakaway group and it's truly amazing how big Backstedt is to be riding the tour. I always knew he was around 200 lbs., but when you see him next to some of the other riders he looks like a giant.

He is the heaviest rider in the TDF this year. He weighed in at 98kg (~216 lbs.)! Let's hear it for the big guy!!!

17 H 52 - Backstedt Leads It Out
Backstedt has started the sprint, O'Grady has taken the lead and will win the stage... Stuart O'Grady has won his second Tour de France stage.

congrats to O'Grady, good on ya!

Does alot to take him towards green too!

Marty

That was insane.

18 H 11 - The Top 7 Overall...
After stage five, the top of the general classification is:
1. Thomas Voeckler (BLB)
2. Stuart O'Grady (COF) at 3'13"
3. Sandy Casar (FDJ) at 4'06"
4. Magnus Backstedt (ALB) at 6'03"
5. Jakob Piil (CSC) at 6'58"
6. Lance Armstrong (USP) at 9'35"
7. George Hincapie (USP) at 9'45"

None of the sprinter teams wanted to help USPS catch the breakaway. I wonder how much that took out of USPS today? I think it's going to be hard on USPS from here on out. They have made a "statement" about their strength, and the rest of the teams are going to make them continue to proove it.

I'm glad O'Grady got the win. How good is he in the mountains?

Not good.

That's what I thought.

None of the sprinter teams wanted to help USPS catch the breakaway. I wonder how much that took out of USPS today? I think it's going to be hard on USPS from here on out. ...

Not as much as it would have if they chased down the break. Eventually the other teams will have to do their share or risk losing their chances as well. This is where the loss of Vino hurts T-Mobile.

Not good.


Actually, he has improved his climbing dramatically. He attacked in the mountains in the Dauphine with little trouble. He is the best climber of all the sprinters, I'd say.

I'm very happy he won the stage, and is now much closer to taking the maillot vert.

Go Stuey!

Best climber of all the sprinters isn't saying much though, is it? :)

Nah, but it gives him an advantage, however slight.

None of the sprinter teams wanted to help USPS catch the breakaway. I wonder how much that took out of USPS today? I think it's going to be hard on USPS from here on out. None of these guys is a contender for the GC. By the end of the race, they will all be down by at least of couple of hours, if last year's results are any indication. (O'Grady - 2'41"24 in arrears, Voeckler - 3'28"18, Casar - 3'19"43, Piil - 3'20"57, Backstedt - at 216 lbs!) Having a Frenchman be in the leader's jersey is about the best thing to happen for USPS. There'll be a lot of motivation to keep the maillot jaune in French hands for a few days, I think. The sprinters will take over until the Pyrenees.

I'd guess Lance and Postal didn't view any of those 5 on the breakway today as a real threat for the yellow once the Tour hits the mountains, or they wouldn't have let them get out to a 15-minute gap (same is true for Jan and T-Mobile and Hamilton and Phonak, too).

Boy, LOTS of crashes for no apparent reason, other than weather conditions and general nervousness, I suppose.

Was Mayo in the main peloton at the finish today? Didn't see if he kept the gap between the top GC contenders and himself where it was through Stage 4.

Of that five man break, Casar is the rider most likely to challenge the longest for the yellow jersey. There is a good chance he will be in Yellow after Stage 12 and possibly after Stage 13. He is a young, developing rider, but he showed quite well at Paris-Nice this year. I don't think he's a threat to the overall, but I was just a little surprised to see the peloton let him get so far ahead. He has been one of France's young hopes of late.

I'd guess Lance and Postal didn't view any of those 5 on the breakway today as a real threat for the yellow once the Tour hits the mountains, or they wouldn't have let them get out to a 15-minute gap (same is true for Jan and T-Mobile and Hamilton and Phonak, too).

Boy, LOTS of crashes for no apparent reason, other than weather conditions and general nervousness, I suppose.

Was Mayo in the main peloton at the finish today? Didn't see if he kept the gap between the top GC contenders and himself where it was through Stage 4.


Mayo did NOT lose any time today :eek:

Nah, but it gives him an advantage, however slight.

Not in holding the yellow jersey to the end.

Those last 10km were great to watch. I was yelling for Voeckler.

Quite lame that so many strong teams were in the peloton, and none of them decided to do any work at all besides USPS. Though I don't think USPS really used up much energy, because the pace was low anyway. Seemed more like simple 'pacing' of the pack rather than 'driving'.

Quite lame that so many strong teams were in the peloton, and none of them decided to do any work at all besides USPS.

Why should they? If I were a DS for any other team. I would not let my riders do an ounce of work to help USPS close the gap on the yellow jersey. It's Bruyneel's to win or lose. And you know he's going to try to win it, so why do it for him?

Beloki screwed this up last year when he was chasing Vino with Lance on his wheel on Stage 8, I believe. Saiz was in his earphones telling him to stop chasing, but Beloki wouldn't listen. Then the crash, where by the way we saw the villain Saiz holding Beloki and comforting him while the race went up the road.

Menolo "the perpetual loser" Saiz? :)

Menolo "the perpetual loser" Saiz? :)

One and da same. The "Nazi" who's riders all seem to want to come back to ride for him: Heras, Beloki, etc....

Not in holding the yellow jersey to the end.

Those last 10km were great to watch. I was yelling for Voeckler.

Quite lame that so many strong teams were in the peloton, and none of them decided to do any work at all besides USPS. Though I don't think USPS really used up much energy, because the pace was low anyway. Seemed more like simple 'pacing' of the pack rather than 'driving'.
Recovery ride :)

Why should they?

I guess they could just parade around France for the next two weeks and not get any stage wins.

If all of Armstrong's rivals just look at Armstrong, and don't chase any other contenders, then they will get beaten. Should Beloki have just let Vino beat him on GC last year? You are going by the mentality that 'as long as Armstrong loses, mission accomplished, even though we lost too.'

Why should they? If I were a DS for any other team. I would not let my riders do an ounce of work to help USPS close the gap on the yellow jersey. It's Bruyneel's to win or lose. And you know he's going to try to win it, so why do it for him?

Because most of the teams on the tour don't really have a chance to win the tour, and they know it. They race the "other" races, like for KOM, Green Jersey, etc. So today riders who would normally compete for those didn't because a break took off without anybody caring. That will only happen a few more times before the "other" teams start taking up the chase.

Look at last year, USPS sent Beltran up the road in a break away, he was so far ahead that he was the "virtual" leader of the race (even over Armstrong), once that happened all the GC riders went right to the front and drove the pace of the group, because they all just last a place on the GC (Ullrich would have been 3rd, Vino 4th, etc).

Recovery ride :)

Yea, I wish I could say my recovery rides were 124.5 miles long with an average speed of 23.4 mph, into a head wind :) I guess these guys are in better shape than me :eek: Wow, who would have thought that ;)

A little much on the smilies?? :p ;) :D :o :( :eek:

Postal had to be thrilled to see a break take off down the road. It saves them from having to be in a chasing, sprinting peloton and in general makes it safer for Armstrong.

Postal plus the five teams with riders in the break had no reason to chase. The other teams for whatever reason decided to take a rest day. Today was after all the day after the TTT.

You are going by the mentality that 'as long as Armstrong loses, mission accomplished, even though we lost too.'

Not at all. I'm going by the mentality that knows that Lance wants to win the TDF, and will take advantage of that. As I said in my post,(read carefully :) )Bruyneel, USPS, Lance et al want to win the TDF, and if they are forced to, they will do the work to close the gaps. The other GC contender teams just have to play their cards right.

As for the other teams wanting to win stages, the teams that have sprinters in contention on the flat stages will do the work to close down gaps. Lotto, Fassa, Fdjeux, Credit Agricole, Gerolsteiner, Cofidis, Ag2r, Domina et al will take up the challenge for that.

You should see Liberty, Phonak, T-Mobile, and to a lesser extent now Euskaltel, make USPS work to chase down any threat to victory in the GC.

There is a difference in chasing down a threat to the GC and chasing down a threat to the stage victory. :) Fassa and Lotto have shown they're more than willing to do the latter.

I really liked the way Thomas Voeckler animated the race at the end. He was so far ahead of the others in the overall time, he knew he'd be in yellow by the end of the day just by keeping pace with the other 4 riders. But he still made some nice attempts to break away near the finish and try for the stage win. National championship and yellow jersey in the span of 12 days! Not too shabby for the young rider, imho.

As for the other teams wanting to win stages, the teams that have sprinters in contention on the flat stages will do the work to close down gaps. Lotto, Fassa, Fdjeux, Credit Agricole, Gerolsteiner, Cofidis, Ag2r, Domina et al will take up the challenge for that.

And USPS will be more than happy (along with the other GC riders) to sit back and be pulled down the road by those guys.


You should see Liberty, Phonak, T-Mobile, and to a lesser extent now Euskaltel, make USPS work to chase down any threat to victory in the GC.

But none of those teams will send a GC contender up the road, so why would USPS chase it down? The chances of Ullrich making a break are slim to none, he's going to want to spend these flat stages resting as much as possible so he can climb the mountains, ditto for the others. Plus the plan backfires because the other teams hoping to place high on the GC won't sacrifice their own placing just to beat Lance.

I fully expect to see Mayo make a break on the mountains, and I fully expect him to make at least a top 5 finish in the tour. He's going to hit a mountain stage and take off, to the point that the people in 2nd and 3rd place are worried about losing positions, then they have to chase (because they are also losing time if they want to make a break for the #1 spot).

If a GC rider wants to beat Armstrong, right now he also has to beat Hamilton and Ullrich (as the other 2 favorites), will Phonak and Telekom allow that to happen?

Andrew

... Plus the plan backfires because the other teams hoping to place high on the GC won't sacrifice their own placing just to beat Lance.


This is really the whole point of the strategy I've been presenting.

Ok, question: Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras, Leipheimer, Mayo, Zubeldia, Julich, Sastre, Mercado, Virenque, Jimenez, Pereiro, and Moreau are climbing the Col Du Core on Stage 13. They are ~ 1/2 up the climb and Mayo, Sastre, Virenque, Mercado, and Leipheimer jump away and get a 20" gap before anyone can respond. You are Erik Breukink. What do you tell your team leader to do over the radio?

A. Initiate the chase.
B. Chase only if Lance chases, then do no more than follow.
C. Chase only if Lance chases, then do no more than follow unless Lance falters, then attack.
D. None of the above.