Professional Cycling For the Fans - Astana Podium Sweep Challenge

Gentlemen, you get to pretend to be both Lance Armstrong, and Andreas Kloden. You are on the final climb of the 17th stage of the Tour de France.

Lance, at the start of the stage, you are 9 seconds ahead of Bradley Wiggins, and 49 seconds ahead of Andy Schleck.

Andreas, you are 31 seconds behind Wiggins, and nine seconds ahead of Andy Schleck.

Lance, you have a little bit of juice left in your legs, but you're two minutes behind the lead group and Bradley Wiggins is on your tail - holding on - barely. Andreas, you are in the lead group, a little over 2 k from the summit, but your legs are fried. Alberto, and both the Schleck brothers have something left in their legs, and Bjarne Riis is savvy enough to know that they want to shake you before the top of the climb because they fear you will take the stage victory.

Your challenge - construct a plausible scenario where Astana finish 1-2-3 on the podium in Paris.

Rules:

1. You do not get to change the stage 18 ITT times.
2. You do not get to change the results from stage 19.
3. You do not get to make ridiculous claims about Lance and Andreas kicking Andy's butt up Mt. Ventoux.
4. You do not get to presume Andy or Bradley crash out.

Have fun. :roflmao:

You let the Schlecks and Wiggins finish 1-2-3 in hte stage and doctor their doping samples.

You let the Schlecks and Wiggins finish 1-2-3 in hte stage and doctor their doping samples.

Nice try. I like the creativity, but those tests take a little too long. Results wouldn't be back until after the ceremonies were all over - and I said "on the podium in Paris". :thumb:

i believe this is the square peg in a round hole test...

I have a different Astana podium sweep challenge. Or rather a Radio Shack sweep challenge.

Once Lance is ordained leader of the team do you think Bruyneel will even utter the phrase "podium sweep"?

Of course not, he doesn't have Contador on the team. Without AC there is no sweep.

Secondly, some AC fans fail to appreciate that JB constructed a team with high end riders like Levi and Kloden. It certainly could have been expected that in recruiting and motivating LL and AK the idea of a podium position for them would have been utilized. And that before Armstrong joined the team.

Frankly, I think that LL or AK have more to resent in LA joining because he would be most likely pushing one of them off the podium.

Frank clips Andy's wheel and they both break bones.

Frank clips Andy's wheel and they both break bones.

See rule #4. :)

Haha, missed that.

AC attacks to wear down the Schleks, then LA and AK counter.

WAIT, that would mean LA and AC working together.

Disregard.

You go back in time.
You somehow prevent Levi from crashing out.
You get Lance to work in an Astana blitz to help get Levi and Andreas ahead of the Schlecks.
Somehow I suspect the time travel would be the easy bit.

Haha, missed that.

AC attacks to wear down the Schleks, then LA and AK counter.

WAIT, that would mean LA and AC working together.

Disregard.

What stage are you referring to? Apparently not stage 17, because when AC did attack, all it did was show Kloden was gassed.

If you mean Stage 20 - what reason would Andy Schleck have to follow AC? All he has to do is not let Lance beat him.

Guess I should have made a rule #5 here. You can't presume Andy and Bradley become inexplicably stupid. :p

Oh dear :|.

/ head in sand

You go back in time.
You somehow prevent Levi from crashing out.
You get Lance to work in an Astana blitz to help get Levi and Andreas ahead of the Schlecks.
Somehow I suspect the time travel would be the easy bit.

Jens warned against smoking that stuff didn't he? ;) Would probably be easier to train bears to attack the Schlecks in the mountains. :innocent:

Tis impossible!

Have you got a theory Zorro?

Tis impossible!

Have you got a theory Zorro?

Indeed.

My theory is that the people who claim AC's aborted move on stage 17 jeopardized a podium sweep have no grounds for making that assertion. Certainly, being dropped hurt Kloden, but in retrospect, he had no real chance - nor did Lance have a realistic shot at finishing 2nd.

I just wanted to give some of the folks who had been sniveling about AC's tactics and podium sweeping a chance to show exactly how that was supposed to play out. I do believe they are stumped.

Indeed.

My theory is that the people who claim AC's aborted move on stage 17 jeopardized a podium sweep have no grounds for making that assertion. Certainly, being dropped hurt Kloden, but in retrospect, he had no real chance - nor did Lance have a realistic shot at finishing 2nd.

I just wanted to give some of the folks who had been sniveling about AC's tactics and podium sweeping a chance to show exactly how that was supposed to play out. I do believe they are stumped.

But, but, but, he didn't follow THE PLAN! And he snivels. And he's soft spoken. And he doesn't speak english. And he didn't follow THE PLAN!!! :rolleyes:

Indeed.

My theory is that the people who claim AC's aborted move on stage 17 jeopardized a podium sweep have no grounds for making that assertion. Certainly, being dropped hurt Kloden, but in retrospect, he had no real chance - nor did Lance have a realistic shot at finishing 2nd.

I just wanted to give some of the folks who had been sniveling about AC's tactics and podium sweeping a chance to show exactly how that was supposed to play out. I do believe they are stumped.

I think my plan would work, 17 is not 20. The tests would have been back.

The chance for a podium sweep went days before and were totally gone once Levi crashed out.

As I see it the way to a realistic chance for a podium sweep was to attack on the flatter stages and attack going into the mountians. Perhaps even attack on the stage with the 60k tail after the last peak. If Astana got to the top with all 4, but had ridden hard enough to have things sorted down to a select group the odds would have been that they would have had the 3 or even 4 best flat road riders. If one is looking at somewhat realistic hopes the hope is Wiggans would have been dropped already and the Schleks would get dropped somewhere before the finish.

BUT the downside is that Lance might have been the one not to make the cut and if this did work Contador would have been in yellow and there would have been no excuse to keep him from attacking on subsequent climbs, all but destroying Lance's chances.

I have a different Astana podium sweep challenge. Or rather a Radio Shack sweep challenge.

Once Lance is ordained leader of the team do you think Bruyneel will even utter the phrase "podium sweep"?

How many Postal/Discovery riders (besides Lance) ended up on the podium from 1999-2005?

Gentlemen, you get to pretend to be both Lance Armstrong, and Andreas Kloden. You are on the final climb of the 17th stage of the Tour de France.

Lance, at the start of the stage, you are 9 seconds ahead of Bradley Wiggins, and 49 seconds ahead of Andy Schleck.

Andreas, you are 31 seconds behind Wiggins, and nine seconds ahead of Andy Schleck.

Lance, you have a little bit of juice left in your legs, but you're two minutes behind the lead group and Bradley Wiggins is on your tail - holding on - barely. Andreas, you are in the lead group, a little over 2 k from the summit, but your legs are fried. Alberto, and both the Schleck brothers have something left in their legs, and Bjarne Riis is savvy enough to know that they want to shake you before the top of the climb because they fear you will take the stage victory.

Your challenge - construct a plausible scenario where Astana finish 1-2-3 on the podium in Paris.

Rules:

1. You do not get to change the stage 18 ITT times.
2. You do not get to change the results from stage 19.
3. You do not get to make ridiculous claims about Lance and Andreas kicking Andy's butt up Mt. Ventoux.
4. You do not get to presume Andy or Bradley crash out.

Have fun. :roflmao:


Isn't this considered trolling?

Isn't this considered trolling?

I'm legitimately interested to hear what it is I may be overlooking - since so many people are still saying that AC's flawed tactic on stage 17 cost Astana a podium sweep.

I don't want to disrupt this thread or start a new one, but here is a related question.
Contador first went against 'the plan' on Arcalis.

What could 'the plan' going into Arcalis possibly have been? Since two on the podium was not good enough, was 'the plan' something designed to get a podium sweep? How were they going to do this? And did this plan lower the chances of an actual victory?

No it didn't cost them a sweep - or Kloden a stage win. I agree that is completely unrealistic. But it did cost Kloden time and it might have cost him a place, though it's entirely possible that the same thing would have happened had AC not attacked.

While I think it was a tactical error, I certainly don't hold it against AC. There's a lot to be said for competitive (i.e. Killer) instinct.

I'm legitimately interested to hear what it is I may be overlooking - since so many people are still saying that AC's flawed tactic on stage 17 cost Astana a podium sweep.

You can't disprove the suggestion of a chance at a sweep by requireing that all results after the change are the same. Different result on 17 likely means different riding on all the later stages, including the TT.

I do not personally think a sweep was possible once Levi was out, but it certainly was out once AC dropped Kloden.

Sean

I don't want to disrupt this thread or start a new one, but here is a related question.
Contador first went against 'the plan' on Arcalis.

What could 'the plan' going into Arcalis possibly have been? Since two on the podium was not good enough, was 'the plan' something designed to get a podium sweep? How were they going to do this? And did this plan lower the chances of an actual victory?

It was Bruyneel's plan that he went against. When the break got enough time that it looked like it was going to stick, Bruyneel wanted Nocentini in the yellow with as much as a 2 to 2 1/2 minute lead. As it turned out it wasn't going to be that big of a lead. Bruyneel told the team not to attack but simply cover the attacks. By attacking, Contador almost rode himself into yellow. The team may have had to ride harder for the next week if that had happened until they could allow a non-dangerous rider in another break to take it. As it turned out, it didn't hurt the team except for causing additional friction in the team. Two days later, Saxo Bank tried to get Contador into the yellow by dropping Nocentini on the final climb. And, therefore, putting more pressure on Astana to defend the yellow.

I agree that they did not or should not have taken yellow, but:
1. AC did not take yellow.
2. Horner was going on about how if he were in the tour Lance would have been in yellow early on
3. Astana didn't seem to mind coming really close to yellow after the team time trial. I even heard that they pushed to try to get Lance in yellow.

It seems to me that they wanted yellow if it were for Lance, but AC takes a flogging if he comes close but does not take yellow.

If Saxo were able to push AC into yellow, then they would likely have been able to push Lance into yellow had AC not taken the lead. So, it does not seem like there were any negative consequences of AC attacking on Arcalis.

Even with Levi in there, I think Astana did as well as they could. 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Andy was the second strongest rider in my estimation.

This is pointless. Your rules negate the possibility that change creates change. You are discounting the mental affect. You can't know what the times would have been if any one person rode differently, so you can't know what the plan for the next day would be. Again, pointless, and it proves nothing.

If either LA or AC had taken yellow, they wouldn't have kept it. Nor would LA have expected to get it back, so for him it was an honorary thing, like Hincapie's.

What people are PO'd about is that AC seemed to purposefully deny Lance the honor.

This is pointless. Your rules negate the possibility that change creates change. You are discounting the mental affect. You can't know what the times would have been if any one person rode differently, so you can't know what the plan for the next day would be. Again, pointless, and it proves nothing.

I don't think I'm being arbitrary.

How much better are we supposed to think someone would do the following day on the Time Trial?

Stage 19 was blazing fast, so none of the GC contenders would have been able to make up time then without making themselves tired and hurting their chances the following day.

As for stage 20 - it seems pretty well demonstrated through all the mountain stages that nobody but AC had managed to take time out of Andy Schleck. Expecting it would start on stage 20 seems quite unrealistic, and besides - Lance seemed he was only up to riding defensively, to prevent Frank and Bradley from making time up on him. If he felt he could have leapfrogged Andy, don't you think he would have at least tried?

I don't think I'm being arbitrary.

How much better are we supposed to think someone would do the following day on the Time Trial?

Stage 19 was blazing fast, so none of the GC contenders would have been able to make up time then without making themselves tired and hurting their chances the following day.

As for stage 20 - it seems pretty well demonstrated through all the mountain stages that nobody but AC had managed to take time out of Andy Schleck. Expecting it would start on stage 20 seems quite unrealistic, and besides - Lance seemed he was only up to riding defensively, to prevent Frank and Bradley from making time up on him. If he felt he could have leapfrogged Andy, don't you think he would have at least tried?

Again, I can't know, nor can you. The smallest difference can push someone's button in a different way. I have no reason to argue for a 3P finish, as I don't care. But I do believe that the smallest changes cause constant change.

Also, the arguement that it wouldn't change anything doesn't make it any more right, so again, it's pointless to argue it. It's pointless to argue anyway, but....

If either LA or AC had taken yellow, they wouldn't have kept it. Nor would LA have expected to get it back, so for him it was an honorary thing, like Hincapie's.

What people are PO'd about is that AC seemed to purposefully deny Lance the honor.

Well, since AC did not take yellow, Lance could have had it if he went up the hill 8 seconds faster or whatever it was. It sure seemed that he tried, because he chased Contador. I'm pretty sure that he even said that he would have defended it. On top of all that - you really think that Armstrong thought of it as honorary? Maybe for George, but not for LA.